Not many tweaks yet ... Michigan drops to the bubble after losing to Penn State. Despite losing on penalties, I think Charlotte remains pretty safe. Big Ten (6, 86%): Northwestern, OSU, PSU, Mich St, Indiana, Mich ACC (7, 78%): Wake, UNC, Maryland, Virginia, BC, Duke, NC State Pac-10 (3, 50%): UCLA, Stanford, San Diego State Missouri Valley (3, 50%): Drake, Missouri St, Creighton Ivy League (4, 50%): Harvard, Princeton, Dartmouth, Brown West Coast (3, 43%): San Diego, LMU Big East (5, 31%): St John's, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, USF Big West (2, 29%): UCI, UCSB Horizon (2, 22%): Butler, Green Bay A-10 (1+): Charlotte CAA (1+): William and Mary CUSA (1+): Tulsa MPSF (1+): New Mexico NEC (1+): Monmouth MAC (1): Akron Other conferences (0): tournament winner only purple - teams that have clinched an automatic bid blue - teams that will undoubtedly be in the field (99% certain) green - teams that will probably be in the field (better than 50%) brown - barely inside the bubble Note: current projections assume that all of the "1+" teams win their conferences. When upsets happen, someone will drop out.
Suddenly, things are a lot more complicated. Out west, Loyola Marymount remains on the bubble after tying at Santa Clara 2-2. LMU blew a 2-0 lead with ten minutes left, and now the LMU at St Mary's winner probably gets in, but not both teams. I've also put Portland back on the inside of the bubble after its win over Seattle. Another victory on Sunday would give it a good chance. Meanwhile, New Mexico has reached the MPSF final and probably wrapped up a bid. In the east, Brown and South Florida have fallen off the bubble. They've been displaced by Charlotte and William & Mary, who crashed out of their conference tournaments but are nonetheless likely to be invited by virtue of their high RPIs. If Brown beats Dartmouth on Saturday, I suspect that Dartmouth will fall out. Meanwhile, the midwest presents an unpredictable choice. There's room to invite some but not all of the following four teams: Michigan, Creighton, and Missouri State, plus Green Bay if it loses to Butler in the Horizon League final. I've dropped Missouri State because I don't expect the committee to recognize how difficult was to win the MVC regular season title this year. In: Portland, tournament winners from A-10, CAA Out: Missouri State, Brown, South Florida Big Ten (6, 86%): Northwestern, OSU, PSU, Mich St, Indiana, Mich ACC (7, 78%): Wake, UNC, Maryland, Virginia, BC, Duke, NC State Pac-10 (3, 50%): UCLA, Stanford, San Diego State West Coast (3, 43%): San Diego, Portland, and winner of LMU at St. Mary's Ivy League (3, 37.5%): Harvard, Princeton, winner of Dartmouth at Brown Missouri Valley (2, 33%): Drake, Creighton Big West (2, 29%): UCI, UCSB Big East (4, 25%): St John's, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, Horizon (2, 22%): Butler, Green Bay CAA (2, 17%): Winner, William and Mary A-10 (2, 14%): Winner, Charlotte CUSA (1+): Tulsa MPSF (1+): New Mexico NEC (1+): Monmouth MAC (1): Akron Other conferences (0): tournament winner only purple - teams that have clinched an automatic bid blue - teams that will undoubtedly be in the field (99% certain) green - teams that will probably be in the field (better than 50%) brown - barely inside the bubble Note: current projections assume that all of the "1+" teams win their conferences. When upsets happen, someone will drop out.
I think you may be correct that committee will overlook the difficulty of the MVC this season, but will it ignore a 1-0-1 record for Missouri State against Creighton? MSU won AT Creighton and was 7-1-1 v. 4-2-4 versus the league. Their RPI numbers are nearly identical. I really hope this doesn't come down to an either/or scenario since I think both are NCAA-quality teams. I need to look more closely at the rest of the country.
When the RPIs are this close, they either take both, or go with the better team in head-to-head. Bid goes to MSU if they only take one of them. Depending on the remaining tournaments, if the favorites beat the underdogs, this will be a non-issue.
The Pac-10 was Saturday's focal point, and two of its teams are now hoping that the selection committee will buck the RPI. Cal was #62 before winning at Stanford yesterday, and Oregon State was #67 before winning at Washington. As a longshot, the Beavers have some appeal because they closed strong under their new coach. In conference play, they came in 2nd behind UCLA. Also, San Diego State pulled off a 1-1 tie at UCLA and is therefore eligible for a bid. With an RPI of #22, I think it gets in despite its 6-6-6 record. Big Ten (6, 86%): Northwestern, OSU, PSU, Mich St, Indiana, Mich ACC (7, 78%): Wake, UNC, Maryland, Virginia, BC, Duke, NC State Pac-10 (3, 50%): UCLA, Stanford, San Diego State West Coast (3, 43%): San Diego, Portland, and winner of LMU at St. Mary's Ivy League (3, 37.5%): Harvard, Princeton, winner of Dartmouth at Brown Missouri Valley (2, 33%): Drake, Creighton Big West (2, 29%): UCI, UCSB Big East (4, 25%): St John's, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville Horizon (2, 22%): Butler, Green Bay CAA (2, 17%): Winner, William and Mary A-10 (2, 14%): Winner, Charlotte CUSA (1+): Tulsa MPSF (1+): New Mexico NEC (1+): Monmouth MAC (1): Akron Other conferences (0): tournament winner only purple - teams that have clinched an automatic bid blue - teams that will undoubtedly be in the field (99% certain) green - teams that will probably be in the field (better than 50%) brown - barely inside the bubble Note: current projections assume that all of the "1+" teams win their conferences. When upsets happen, someone will drop out.
Well who's gonna argue with the devil's spawn? SDSU, Oregon State, and especially Cal, will be interesting. Gonna be tight. It's hard to believe the Pac-10 is only a two bid league but when your second place team has a .500 record and two other teams have RPIs in the 60s, it doesn't help.
I'm about a 30 minute bus ride from SDSU. Cought many of their home matches. Never realized they were that good. I don't know a thing about the Pac 10. Are they usually a multibid conference?
Thanks to the posters providing updates in other threads, here's my latest projection. Dartmouth lost 3-0 to Brown today, and despite having an RPI that's good enough, it's a toss-up whether their late season form gets them in. Big Ten (6, 86%): Ohio St, Northwestern, PSU, Mich St, Indiana, Mich ACC (7, 78%): Virginia, Wake, UNC, Maryland, BC, Duke, NC State Pac-10 (3, 50%): UCLA, Stanford, San Diego State West Coast (3, 43%): San Diego, Portland, and winner of LMU at St. Mary's Ivy League (4, 50%): Harvard, Princeton, Brown, Dartmouth Missouri Valley (2, 33%): Drake, Creighton Big West (2, 29%): UCI, UCSB Big East (4, 25%): St John's, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville Horizon (2, 22%): Green Bay, Butler CAA (2, 17%): Winner, William and Mary A-10 (2, 14%): Winner, Charlotte CUSA (1): Tulsa MPSF (1+): New Mexico NEC (1): Monmouth MAC (1): Akron Other conferences (1): tournament winner only purple - teams that have clinched an automatic bid blue - teams that will undoubtedly be in the field (99% certain) green - teams that will probably be in the field (better than 50%) brown - barely inside the bubble
Thanks for the New Mexico result. After a tie in their conference final, I think they're comfortably in. In the late games, Portland is making a statement by beating up San Francisco 5-0, while LMU has solidified its hopes by winning 2-0 at St. Mary's. The Gaels fall off the bubble, having gone winless in their last four games. In the end, my projections work out to be pretty simple. In order to get an at-large, you need (a) a record that's at least .500, and (b) an RPI that was in the top 43. Two teams that satisfy those requirements won't get bids. My best guess is that they'll be #31 Dartmouth and #37 Missouri State. http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2009MSOrpi1.html IN: LMU, Sacramento State Out: St. Mary's, Dartmouth Big Ten (6, 86%): Ohio St, Northwestern, PSU, Mich St, Indiana, Mich ACC (7, 78%): Virginia, Wake, UNC, Maryland, BC, Duke, NC State Pac-10 (3, 50%): UCLA, Stanford, San Diego State West Coast (3, 43%): San Diego, Loyola Marymount, Portland Ivy League (3, 38%): Harvard, Princeton, Brown Missouri Valley (2, 33%): Drake, Creighton Big West (2, 29%): UCI, UCSB Big East (4, 25%): St John's, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville MPSF (2, 25%): Sacramento State, New Mexico Horizon (2, 22%): Green Bay, Butler CAA (2, 17%): UNC Wilmington, William and Mary A-10 (2, 14%): St Louis, Charlotte CUSA (1): Tulsa NEC (1): Monmouth MAC (1): Akron Other conferences (1): tournament winner only purple - teams that have clinched an automatic bid blue - teams that will undoubtedly be in the field (99% certain) green - teams that will probably be in the field (better than 50%) brown - barely inside the bubble
Grimes is a great guy. Is it wrong for me to hope Cal misses out and Grimes gets fired so he can come to St. Louis?
not sure..... I know they've been hit hard by injuries in the month of October so that may not have helped his situation.....