[Karl K]

Over the on the Haiti post-game grumbling threads in USA Men, the old -- I dunno -- complaint? about the USA not taking long distance shots has once again surface.

This has always seemed to me a red-herring, and doesn't take into account the realities of the way the modern game is now played. Here is my theory about why so few shots are taken from outside the area.

Can this theory be supported by statisical analysis?

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The lines on the field are there for a reason which is why there are so few of them.

The penalty area is THE danger area, and that's where you want to be when you shoot.

I can't remember the exact numbers, but I believe around 8 out of 10 goals are scored inside the penalty area. Shooting from outside the area increases the odds of NOT scoring.

Run of play goals are scored primarily when you have

--numbers up situations, where working close in combinations can wrong-foot the keepr.

--front runners put through so they get behind the defense

--balls re-directed inside the area to take advantage of a keeper in a vulnerable position.

--deflected saves, resulting from dangerous free kicks/set pieces, or close-in shots that can't be handled cleanly.

Run of play shots from outside the area have inherent disadvantages.

--They are more likely to be deflected by marking defenders, since defenders in almost all such instances are behind the ball. Deflections might occur all the way back into midfield at times, triggering counterattacks.

--They are more easily caught by the keeper since he has a longer time to react

--They are more likely to be off frame because (a) they are more likely to be one-timers since the sliver of space to shoot is often closed down quickly and (b) longer shots have a wider directional "arc" of possible vectors outside the goal mouth(Trig, part one.)

--Shots from the top of the area SHOULD be taken between the edges of the penalty arc so you have the maximum amount of goal mouth exposed. (Trig, part II). This is the area of toughest marking, making such shots difficult to get off, and therefore rare.

That's not to say you should NEVER shoot from outside the area...there's a time and a place for it. But the infrequency of such shots is appropriate give the nature of packed modern defenses.

[microbrew]

As a kind of aside, what about shots that become deflections and rebounds, which then are put in?
Oxymoronic perhaps, but think of it as a cross from the front? Then that train of thought lead to the question whether crossing the ball was overemphasized. As to where I'm going with this, I don't know.

[ChrisE]

Sorry I missed this for so long, Karl.

I don't have a direct response to your questions - I think they're a little too hard to answer so easily. I think there's a chance that long-range shots, although they have a pretty low chance of going in, makes it either easier to get off closer shots and/or make closer shots more likely to go in (because the defense has to watch out for long-range shots).

Although this doesn't answer that problem, I think a good place to start with answering this question would be soccernet's gamecasts, which record where a shot was taken, who it was taken by, and whether or not it went in. It would certainly be a good way of determining what kind of a percentage you should expect from various shots. I tried to record some of these things, but got hung up on how I should classify shots - maybe somebody else can think of a good way.

[numerista]

Originally Posted by ChrisE

maybe somebody else can think of a good way.

I think it'd be smart to draw a grid on a transparency sheet and use that record the X and Y coordinates of the square in which a shot was taken. Then you could do the slicing and dicing later, figuring out things in terms of shot distance, angle, etc.

[ChrisE]

Originally Posted by numerista

I think it'd be smart to draw a grid on a transparency sheet and use that record the X and Y coordinates of the square in which a shot was taken. Then you could do the slicing and dicing later, figuring out things in terms of shot distance, angle, etc.

This is definitely a better idea than mine, but I'm not sure how you would make sure you were being consistent with your placement of the dots (the Gamecasts don't give you x or y coordinates)? It also seems like you would run out of room pretty quickly, do you define the coordinates and then keep a running tally?

[numerista]

Originally Posted by ChrisE

This is definitely a better idea than mine, but I'm not sure how you would make sure you were being consistent with your placement of the dots (the Gamecasts don't give you x or y coordinates)? It also seems like you would run out of room pretty quickly, do you define the coordinates and then keep a running tally?

Not sure if I'm being clear, so apologies if this is too pedantic.

The idea isn't to mark up the transparency sheet; it's just to have a grid that lines up with the Gamecast's outline of the field. The actual recording of x- and y-coordinates would happen in an Excel spreadsheet, or some such thing.

[ChrisE]

Originally Posted by numerista

Not sure if I'm being clear, so apologies if this is too pedantic.

The idea isn't to mark up the transparency sheet; it's just to have a grid that lines up with the Gamecast's outline of the field. The actual recording of x- and y-coordinates would happen in an Excel spreadsheet, or some such thing.

Well, you probably aren't being too pedantic, but I still don't understand. Are you suggesting writing some kind of computer program? Where could one get access to such a grid?

[numerista]

Looking at the MatchCast for Arsenal-ManU, I see that there actually is a not-quite-perfect grid formed by the two tones of the field. It's probably good enough to use, anyway.

I envision using these two tones to identify rows and columns on the field ... so data for this match is this:
(At Arsenal end)
col,row,outcome
0,6,off
0,8,goal
2,4,on
2,5,off
2,6,off
2,7,on
2,8,on
2,9,off
2,10,on
3,5,on
3,10,on
4,5,off
4,9,on
(At ManU end)
0,8,off
1,6,off
1,6,on
2,4,off
2,6,off
2,6,on
2,8,off
2,8,on
2,9,on
3,4,on
3,5,on
3,9,off
4,2,on
4,6,on
4,8,goal

A really ambitious thing would also be to record the shooters for every shot.

You can then convert these row and column numbers into distances and angles from the center of the goal line.

[Elninho]

One thing I would like to see is an analysis of whether or not teams that take more long-range shots (shots from outside the box) actually score on a higher percentage of their short-range shots (from inside the box). One of the most commonly-cited reasons for taking long-range shots is to "keep the defense honest." I'm especially interested in this because it's probably the only reason I've ever gotten any playing time myself.

[ChrisE]

Originally Posted by numerista

A really ambitious thing would also be to record the shooters for every shot.

You can then convert these row and column numbers into distances and angles from the center of the goal line.

Well that looks like a really good solution, Numerista. The initial reason I was doing this was in an attempt to resolve a discussion about shooting percentages of different positions - I wanted to see how much of that was simply a product of shot selection. So, obviously, I'll be doing that, although I'm afraid English players may be quite different from those in MLS.