If the league follows something like the rules they've followed in the past, the expansion draft at the end of this season will probably go something like this: 1. The Union can protect 11 players 2. Vancouver and Portland take turns picking 1 player each 3. After a player is selected, you get to protect one additional player 4. Because of international player restrictions, the Union can expose at most one of our four internationals (Stahl, Fred, Torres, and Coudet). 5. The most players any team can lose is two (it was 3 in the past but I'm guessing it will go down this year) 6. GA players Okugo and McInerney are exempt, but Mwanga will likely graduate and be subject to the expansion draft. With those rules in mind...who would you protect, based on their midseason form?
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft 1. Mwanga 2. Le Toux 3. Mapp 4. Califf 5. Harvey 6. Torres (assuming he's bought from his club) 7. Seitz 8. Orozco (See #6) 9. Fred 10. Coudet 11. Arrieta
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft This is a tough one, due to variables in the future. That being said, here's my initial list. They are in order by jersey number since that's how they are in my spreadsheet. 1. Seitz (G) 2. Califf (D) 3. Fred (M) 4. LeToux (M/F) 5. Mwanga (F) 6. Salinas (M/D) 7. Moreno (F) - People think he's been terrible this year, but I think our offense would be noticeably different without him there. 8. Orozco (D) 9. Torres (M) 10. Coudet (M) 11. Mapp (M) I have 0% confidence in Harvey's talent & decision making, and Arrieta has been on a steady downhill journey. Hopefully they'll be gone and we can shop for some better defensive options. Migs has driven me crazy with his inconsistencies, along with Jacobson. Stahl...well there's not much to say. The only one I struggle with is Nakazawa. I really think there is a lot of upside with him, and I'd hate to see him stolen from us for nothing.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft Initial Protection: 1. Le Toux 2. Mwanga 3. Seitz (we've invested a lot in him to let him get taken) 4. Harvey (I like everything I've seen out of Jordan so far) 5. Califf (he brings great experience, and he's el capitan) 6. Zimmerman (though he hasn't had much chance, I think he's got a lot of up-side) 7. Fred 8. Torres 9. Coudet 10. Arrieta 11. Toss-up: Torres / Noone / Mapp (depends on if Torres is bought and what the others bring to the table)
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft For me, probably: 1. Mwanga 2. Le Toux 3. Califf 4. Fred 5. Torres 6. Coudet 7. Orozco 8. Salinas 9. Arrieta 10. Moreno 11. Harvey or Miglioranzi Tough leaving Noone and Nakazawa off, and they could play their way onto the list by the end of the season. I don't think anyone will pick Mapp because of his jumbo contract and his reputation. And I think our keepers are a toss-up right now; if one gets nabbed, protect the other.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft I thought Noone was protected due to some rule? Or am I thinking of someone else?
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft 1. No one 2. No one 3. No one 4. No one 5. No one 6. No one 7. No one 8. No one 9. No one 10 No one 11 No one We don't need to protect anybody. If someone tries to take one of our players, they'll have to deal with the PPL's Elbow or Stahl will run in and kick them in the face.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft Subject to change later, but first pass: 1. Le Toux (no brainer) 2. Mwanga (no brainer) 3. Seitz (we've cast our lot with this kid, gotta see it play out) 4. Fred (int'l slot, no brainer) 5. Torres (int'l slot, assuming we buy) 6. Coudet (int'l slot, keeping Coudet over Stahl, but would love to upgrade here during the window) 7. Salinas (love Shea) 8. Califf (need center backs) 9. Orozco (see Califf) 10. Harvey (not a huge fan but left backs are hard to find) 11. Nakazawa (his dead ball skills alone get him here). I don't see Moreno getting picked. Mapp's got a huge cap number so even if he did get picked, we'd get some cap relief. Losing Migs would hurt, hopefully Okugo would be ready to step up. Could still see Noone or Zimmerman make this list before the year is out. Meh on Jacobson, Arrieta, Knighton
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft Mine looked like this except I kept Arrieta and dropped MOF. I am also hesitant to keep Coudet with his age vs Jacobson. Altho, McInerny hasn't showed much, its a good thing him and Okogu are protected.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft Here is how I currently see the protected and unprotected lists – salaries need to be factored into the mix a bit for some players as to whether they get protected or not: Protected List 1. Chris Seitz #1 (G) (3/12/87) ($100K - $136K) 2. Danny Califf #4 (D) (3/17/80) ($250K - $250K) 3. Michael Orozco Fiscal #16 (D) (2/17/86) ($150K - $200K) 4. Jordan Harvey #2 (D) (1/28/84) ($55K - $56K) 5. Shea Salinas #11 (D/M) (6/24/86) ($40K - $40K) 6. Roger Torres #20 (M) (7/13/1991) ($96K - $99K) (Colombia – INT) 7. Eduardo Coudet #21 (M) (9/12/74) ($? - $?) [Argentina – INT] (likely making $200K - $225K) 8. Fred Carreiro #7 (M) (8/18/79) ($250K - $282K) (Brazil - INT) 9. Sebastien Le Toux #9 (M/F) (1/10/84) ($110K - $122K) (France – green card) 10. Danny Mwanga #10 (F) (7/17/91) ($100K - $206K) (Dem. Rep. of Congo – refugee/asylum status) 11. Alejandro Moreno #15 (F) (7/8/79) ($145K - $158K) (Venezuela – green card) Generation Adidas 1. Amobi Okugo #14 (M) (3/13/91) ($75K - $158K) 2. Jack McInerney #19 (F) (8/5/92) ($53K - $116K) Unprotected List 1. Brad Knighton #18 (G) (2/16/85) ($40K - $40K) 2. Toni Stahl #12 (D) (5/11/85) ($40K - $110K) (Finland - INT) 3. Cristian Arrieta #26 (D) (9/8/79) ($60K - $65K) (USA/Italy – Dual Citizen) 4. Andrew Jacobson #8 (M) (9/24/85) ($40K - $40K) 5. Stefani Miglioranzi #6 (M) (9/20/77) ($125K - $148K) (Brazil – green card) 6. Kyle Nakazawa #13 (M) (3/16/88) ($40K - $40K) 7. Justin Mapp #22 (M) (10/18/84) ($245K - $280K) 8. Nick Zimmerman #23 (M/F) (5/3/87) ($40K - $40K) 9. J.T. Noone #17 (D/M) (9/13/87) ($?K - $?K) (likely making $40K) Protected List – I would think that Nowak and Company will be loyal to their starters for the most part as opposed to protecting younger players who were unable to get much playing time. So everyday starters like Califf, Orozco Fiscal, Harvey (especially given his low salary and age), Fred, Coudet (if the international protection rules were relaxed – he could probably go unprotected given his age, $ and minimal MLS exposure), Le Toux, Mwanga and Moreno. Of all of these players, Moreno seems vulnerable due to lack of goal scoring although it does not seem to phase Nowak and perhaps Fred as well due to high $. Salinas has been impressive when he has played, plus he has a low salary. While Seitz’s play has been erratic, too much time and $ have been invested him to unprotect him and not let him build on his experience here. Torres’ status is the wild card here given his loan status, somewhat diminishing on-field contributions over the course of the season and current injury. Unprotected List – Since Knighton has yet to play a MLS game this season, he makes the list. Other than get cards when he has played, Stahl has not done much to avoid being unprotected. Arrieta would be in the mix for the final protected spot (Moreno has it now – others under consideration would be Miglioranzi, Mapp and Jacobson) as he has generally been a decent starter but he is older than Harvey if only 3 defenders were protected. Miglioranzi is older and has Okugo waiting in the wings at DM. Mapp makes a lot of $ but if he performs well in the 2nd half of the season, he merits consideration for a protected spot based on his age. The creation of the protected roster (which includes the 3 current Generation Adidas players and seemingly Noone as well) needs to be clarified in Expansion Draft terms by MLS. In the past, these non Gen Ad players were making less than $20K and getting selected by an Expansion team meant a big raise to a senior roster contract (i.e. Nick Zimmerman and Philly). Jacobson’s versatility in the midfield could make him an expansion draft selection. Zimmerman and Nakazawa both struggle for playing time here – maybe Portland or Vancouver would take a flier on them. Since Noone makes as much as the senior roster minimum players, I have to wonder if he gets automatically protected just because he is on that protected roster. In terms of losing him in the Expansion Draft, that chance seems to be minimal at best. He was not drafted in the SuperDraft – his USL points were minimal – and his MLS playing time this season will also likely be minimal. I hope that he does well with the Union – just do not see the interest level in him rising much over the coming months. Players Likely to be Selected in Expansion Draft (In Order of Potential Interest) 1. Arrieta 2. Jacobson 3. Mapp 4. Miglioranzi 5. Zimmerman 6. Nakazawa 7. Knighton 8. Stahl 9. Noone
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft I would definitely without hesitation rather see Arrieta protected than Moreno. Otherwise, it looks good to me.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft I wouldn't assume Mwanga graduates as a Generation Adidas player. If he did, perhaps they could arrange things to do so after the expansion draft? I'm not so concerned with who is and isn't protected at this point. My biggest concern is getting better next season. As long as the team that starts next year is better than the one that finishes this season, it doesn't matter who they lose IMO.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft I agree. I would rather protect Arrieta and keep the 2 centre backs in tact than protect Moreno, who is a workhorse but I wouldn't be too concerned if we lost him. Coudet, I would also not protect due to age. I would rather protect Mapp or Jacobson.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft i think the international rule really hurts us here. the only international i'd like to protect is roger torres. fred and coudet are unlikely to be selected due to age and salary and wouldn't be a huge loss long-term anyways. that being said, here are my picks: International 1)Torres 2)Coudet 3)Stahl (assuming nowak sees something in him that made us draft him) the rest 4)Le Toux 5)Mwanga 6)Orozco Fiscal (our most promising defender) 7)Mapp (not taking any chances, he's young and skilled) 8)Nakazawa (seems talented, better long-term than Migs, has shown more than Noone) 9)Harvey (low price, young, fairly reliable) 10)Arrieta (i only want to keep one center back as they've both underwhelmed me, he has more potential than califf) 11)Jacobson/Salinas (dependable sparks off the bench)
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft If Mwanga keeps playing the number of minutes that he has as of late, he would be at the same range of total minutes that other rookie Generation Adidas field players have played and graduated. Generation Adidas program graduations have always been done prior to Expansion Drafts so it seems likely that he would need to be protected.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft Ive been trying to put this list together for a week or two and I'm having a tough time doing it. Piotr took a different approach to the draft the first time through and I think he and Hackworth will take a different approach than we expect yet again. I think I'll be able to make a more educated guess after this 4 game stretch as we see who steps up and ultimately what the team looks like at the close of the window. If the team signs someone capable of playing as a centerback before the window closes, I don't expect to be debating Stahl come November.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft If Harvey wasn't making so little I wouldn't protect him at all, he has been caught out of position multiple times nearly every single game. Might be unfair to single him out, but he stands out as always being out of position.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft The way that these expansion drafts typically work is that Philly would have to protect 3 of its 4 international players (the 4 players are Fred, Coudet, Torres and Stahl), which is why Coudet and Stahl could not both be unprotected. I agree that Moreno seems to be a decent choice to leave unprotected but the coaching staff seems to be higher on him than many fans who want to see more goals scored by him given all of his playing time.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft that's true, they love him. but hopefully they realize that we have a great chance of keeping him without protecting him AND more importantly, losing him wouldn't be the worst thing with JACK MAC collecting dust on the bench right now
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft I've been saying that about Harvey for weeks. He did look better against Man U and seemed to be in position fairly well against NE this week. He also doesn't seem to be contributing nearly enough on the attack in comparison to the frequency with which he's being caught too far up.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft Protect: Seitz Califf Fred Le Toux Mwanga Salinas Nakazawa Orozco Fiscal Torres Coudet Mapp My additional protect would be Jacobson because I think he could be selected, and I think we should keep him. The one fringe guy that I would protect just to make sure that we don't lose him would be Nakazawa. He seems like the kind of player we wouldn't protect and then it would bite us in the ass. Guys I'd be OK if they went somewhere else: Miglioranzi Stahl Moreno Zimmerman Arrieta I think we'll most likely lose, at the most, Harvey and Miglioranzi. Does anyone know if we can release players before we have to put out our list of protected players? I mean, if we know where we're going to finish in the standings, could we cut Coudet before the last game of the year and open up that spot for him?
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft 1). LeToux 2). Mwanga 3). Fred 4). Chacho 5). Mapp 6). Salinas 7). Califf 8). Arrieta 9). Harvey 10).Mo-F 11).Zawa * really hard to find a reason to even care about the bottom half. Lose 1 G-pull the other back. Team can't defend. Period. Needs a better target forward than Moreno and all the space for help it can get at the back next yr. Figure Okugo will be more ready for holding mid duties in '11, and finding replacement for Migs or Jacobson (if even nec.) won't be as big a bother as finding some CASH to fix a terminally slow, positionally adrift and physically inept back 4.
Re: Midseason Expansion Draft How would today's signing of Gonzalez affect this list? Assuming the rules would be as stated in the OP, do they now have to protect 4 of their 5 internationals?