[CT-ref]

RPI cut line appears to be at 37 this morning, given the final results of the automatic bids this weekend being resolved with 11 teams qualifying with RPIs 38 or higher.

While RPI is traditionally the 800lb gorilla in the committee room, they also will definitely look at last 8 games, significant wins/losses (bonus and penalty points), adjusted RPI, etc. in making the final few decisions. And being human, the committee likely has a preference for teams that finish strong and play their way in, in contrast with teams that hang around and hope the stats will get them invited.

I expect all teams with an RPI in the 30s and 40s to be closely examined by the committee. Teams, rated by most recent RPI, with a shot at an invitation today are as follows:

30. Notre Dame - Loss in Big East finals in PKs to St. John's won't blemish their record. 3-2-3 last 8 games. Easy in.
31. Dartmouth - 4-4 last 8 games, 3-0 loss to Brown on Sunday makes this too close to call. All depends on other teams having a better case to knock them out, especially with more Ivy League teams going through. Win at San Diego is offset by loss at home to Columbia. 50/50 chance.
32. UC Santa Barbara - 5-2-1, loss in Big West finals to UC Irvine at 29. Easy in.
33. Michigan - 3-5, loss in first round of Big10 tournament to Penn State. No significant wins or losses to help make this call. Not an easy call, they have dropped into the pit with Dartmouth.
34. Louisville - 5-1-2. Loss in BigEast semis via PKs to Notre Dame. In.
35. Creighton - 3-2-3. Loss in semis of MVC to Drake. Win at home v. UCLA helps seal this bid.
36. UConn - 5-2-1. Loss to Providence in BigEast quarterfinal hurts, regular season win over St. John's gets them in.
37. Missouri State - 7-1. Loss to Evansville in MVC semis. Away wins at Drake and Creighton, home loss to E. Illinois, scales tip in favor of a 3rd team from the MVC. They're in.
38. Wisconsin not eligible for an at-large bid, final season record 7-9-2.
39. UNC Wilmington - automatic bid, CAA tournament champion - congrats!
40. DePaul not eligible. 8-9-3.
41. Brown - 5-2-1. Home wins over Princeton and Dartmouth make this an easy invitation.
42. South Carolina - Not eligible. 7-8-3.
43. Portland - 3-2-3. Away tie at San Diego helps, but not enough to jump other teams.
44. St. Mary's - 4-2-2. Away win over Portland and tie at San Diego gives them the edge over Portland, but not enough juice with splitting the Loyola series to get them an invitation.
45. American - 2-4-2, loss in Patriot League finals to Bucknell. Loss to Colgate at home, no bid this year.
46. Green Bay - Horizon League Champions! Automatic.
47. Cal St. Northridge - 4-3-1. Loss in semis of BigWest to UCSB. Away win at UCIrvine, neutral site win v. Tulsa, home tie v. UCDavis. Not quite enough to get an invite.
48. South Florida - 6-1-1. Loss in BigEast quarterfinals via PKs to Notre Dame. Home wins over Dartmouth and Notre Dame, home tie with St. John's. I'd invite them to dance!
49. Old Dominion - 5-2-1. Loss in semis of CAA to UNCWilmington. Home win over Penn State is a highlight, not enough to bring in three teams from the CAA though.

Any others worth a look?

Good to go - Notre Dame, Santa Barbara, Louisville, Creighton, UConn, Missouri State
Outs - Dartmouth, Michigan
Ins - Brown, South Florida
Just missed - St. Mary's, Portland

[Force10]

Originally Posted by CT-ref

37. Missouri State - 7-1. Loss to Evansville in MVC semis. Away wins at Drake and Creighton, home loss to E. Illinois, scales tip in favor of a 3rd team from the MVC. They're in.

After a 7-1 loss I predict the committee will go with a major conference team such as Michigan or USF and leave MSU out.

[collegesoccer]

Originally Posted by Force10

After a 7-1 loss I predict the committee will go with a major conference team such as Michigan or USF and leave MSU out.

They didn't lose 7-1. They lost in OT.

[CT-ref]

Originally Posted by collegesoccer

They didn't lose 7-1. They lost in OT.

7-1 was their record for the last 8 games of the season. Sorry for any confusion.

[oldguyfc]

Originally Posted by CT-ref

7-1 was their record for the last 8 games of the season. Sorry for any confusion.

Which is actually a very good thing for them. The last 8 games are a major criteria for selection.

[GersMan]

Of course this RPI ranking you use is not the one they will be using. There is a final RPI reflecting the conference tournament week (or final regular season week for some) and it isn't released until after the selection and seedings are announced.

This is good analysis but what I've seen from the committee over and over is that the RPI is not an 800 pound gorilla, rather it's the be-all-end-all in the decision making. They rely far too much on it. The secondary criteria, like last 8 games, are only used when there is a real pinch, and frankly too often they don't seem to examine things closely enough to get to that point.

Criteria for selecting participants (from the NCAA handbook)
"
• Won-lost record;
• Strength of schedule; and
• Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships.

In addition to Bylaw 31.3.3, the men’s soccer committee has received approval from
the Division I Championships/Sports Management Cabinet to consider the following
criteria in the selection of at-large teams for the men’s soccer championship (not
necessarily in priority order):
Primary Criteria.
• Adjusted Rating Percentage Index (RPI), which includes:
1. Won-lost record (25 percent).
2. Opponents’ strength of schedule (50 percent).
3. Opponents’ opponents’ strength of schedule (25 percent).
4. Bonus/penalty system. (See Appendix J).
• Head-to-head competition.
• Results versus common opponents.
• Strength and results against nonconference opponents.

Secondary Factors. If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a
decision by the committee, then the secondary criteria will be reviewed.
• Results against teams already selected (including automatic qualifiers with an RPI of
1-75).
• Late-season performance in last eight games (strength and results).

Recommendations provided by regional advisory committees shall also be
considered by the men’s soccer committee. Coaches’ polls and /or any other outside polls or rankings are not used as a selection criterion by the men’s soccer committee for selection purposes."


I appreciate the idea of a tool to aid in objectivity, but soccer results are almost always full of nuance and the RPI isn't going to pick that up anyway.

Also - how many of these people really know their soccer? I see 4 coaches on here - are there more?

Al Albert, College of William and Mary
John Bluem, The Ohio State University
Elmar Bolowich, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
John Diffley, St. John’s University (New York), chair
Charlie Elwood, Fordham University
Kurt Esser, University of New Mexico
Mike Getman, University of Alabama at Birmingham
Mary Lu Gribschaw, University of Akron
Diane O’Brien, University of California, Santa Barbara
Seth Roland, Fairleigh Dickinson University, Metropolitan

[GersMan]

Here is my imperfect attempt to handicap it.

http://topdrawersoccer.com/college-s...5/Almost-There

[oldguyfc]

Originally Posted by GersMan

Also - how many of these people really know their soccer? I see 4 coaches on here - are there more?

Al Albert, College of William and Mary
John Bluem, The Ohio State University
Elmar Bolowich, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
John Diffley, St. John’s University (New York), chair
Charlie Elwood, Fordham University
Kurt Esser, University of New Mexico
Mike Getman, University of Alabama at Birmingham
Mary Lu Gribschaw, University of Akron
Diane O’Brien, University of California, Santa Barbara
Seth Roland, Fairleigh Dickinson University, Metropolitan

The process is ongoing for about the last four weeks of season, and it includes the NCAA coaching rep's in the respective regions; their input has a lot to do with the way teams are lined up in that region.

[oldguyfc]

Originally Posted by GersMan

Here is my imperfect attempt to handicap it.

http://topdrawersoccer.com/college-s...5/Almost-There

More of a question, since the MAC doesn't get an automatic to the tourney, isn't Akron considered an "at-large" selection?

[oldguyfc]

Originally Posted by GersMan

The secondary criteria, like last 8 games, are only used when there is a real pinch, and frankly too often they don't seem to examine things closely enough to get to that point.

Coaches I've spoken to over the years about this have said that the last 8 game criteria has been used many times to eliminate/include teams that have been on the bubble.