[TrueCrew]

Well, a short week in MLS, but a big one. Four MLS games, two are important for the Crew, and the USMNT travels to Honduras. Big week.

I. MLS:

Wednesday, October 7th:

San Jose v. FC Dallas, 10 pm, EST

Saturday, October 10th

TFC v. San Jose, 4 pm EST
New England v. Columbus, 7:30 pm, EST
Chivas USA v. Kansas City, 10 pm EST

Everyone but NY is still alive in the playoff race. San Jose can Max out at 40 points, Kansas City 41, and Dallas 42. They'll all be rooting for the Crew to keep 8th place NE on 38, and all could be eliminated, officially, with a loss and/or a NE win/tie, depending. TFC can tie for 8th with a win and a Crew win.

On the Crew note, this is our game in hand on Houston, LA, Chicago, Seattle, and Colorado. A win would eliminate everyone except Houston, LA, and Chivas from Shield contention. And put Houston and LA on the cusp of elimination with them playing each other next week. A Crew loss and Chivas win would move them within 2 with a game in hand. Even a draw would be decent, as it would put us 3 points up on Houston and LA, and at least three points up on Chivas as well, and since we own the tiebreaker on all three, an effective 4 point lead, though Chivas would have a game in hand.

After this week, everyone will have played 28 games except Chivas (2 in the last week) and RSL (2 games next week) who have 27.

Here's the standings right now, by way of review:

SS Standings (in order of Max points):
1. Crew: 46 pts, 27 GP. 55 Max. @NE, @DC, (@PR) NE.
2. Chivas: 41 pts, 26 GP. 53 Max. KC, SJ, @CHI, Hou. Crew lead tie-break: GD: +11/+3
3. LA: 44 pts, 28 GP. 50 Max. OFF, @Hou, SJ. Crew own tie-break: head to head.
4. HOU: 44 pts, 28 GP 50 Max. OFF, LA, (@Met)@CHV. Crew own tie-break: head to head.
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5. Sea: 41 pts, 28 GP. 47 Max. OFF, @KC, FCD. Sounders own tie-break: head to head.
6. Fire: 41 pts, 28 GP. 47 Max. OFF, @NE, CHV. Crew lead tie-break: +11/+4
7. NE: 38 pts, 27 GP. 47 Max. Crew, Fire, @Crew. Crew lead tie-break: +11/-4.
8. Col: 40 pts, 28 GP. 46 Max. OFF, @FCD, @RSL. Crew own tie-break: head to head.
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9. TFC: 44 Max. 35 pts, 27 GP. SJ, RSL, @NY.
10. RSL: 43 Max. 34 pts, 27 GP. NY, @TFC, COL.
11. DC: 42 Max. 36 pts, 28 GP. Crew, @Toluca (CCL), @KC.
12. FCD: 42 Max. 33 pts, 27 GP. @SJ, COL, @SEA.
13. KC: 41 Max. 32 pts, 27 GP. @CHV, Sea, DC.
14. SJ: 40 Max: 28 pts, 26 GP. FCD, @TFC, @CHV, @LA.
15. NY = irrelevant.
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II. World Cup Qualifying

The first matches of the two day matchday that ends the qualification for most confederations (except Africa).

A. CONCACAF. 3.5 Teams:

Qualified Teams: None.

Standings:
1. USA: 16 pts. @Hon, CR
2. Mex: 15 pts. ES, @T&T
3. Hon: 13 pts. USA, @ES
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4. CR: 12 pts. T&T, @USA
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5. ES: 8 pts. @Mex, Hon.
6. T&T: 5 pts. @CR, Mex. Eliminated.

Saturday, October 10th

Mexico v. El Salvador, 6 pm, EST
Honduras v. USA, 10 pm, EST
Costar Rica v. Trinidad & Tobago, 10 pm, EST

Big games abound. The USA can clinch a trip to SA with a win, and Mexico can also clinch with a win and some help (USA win). Even Honduras could clinch (win + CR loss). Things could be completely decided, or completely up for grabs going into Matchday 10.
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B. CONMEBOL: 4.5 Teams

Qualified Teams: Brazil, Paraguay. Matches on 10/10 and 10/14.

Standings:
1. Brazil: 33 pts. @Bol, Ven.
2. Paraguay: 30 pts. @Ven, Col.
3. Chile: 27 pts. @Col, Ecu.
4. Ecuador: 23 pts. Uru, @Chile.
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5. Argentina: 22 pts. Peru, @Uru.
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6. Uruguay: 21 pts. @Ecu, Arg
7. Venezuela: 21 pts. Par, @Bra
8. Columbia: 20 pts. Chile, @Par
9. Bolivia: 12 pts
10. Peru: 10 ps

Great finishing stretch, 8 teams still alive for at least a playoff birth. And all of the top 8 play each other the last 2 games, except for Argentina's home match to Peru.

Saturday, October 10th

Bolivia v. Brazil, 4 pm, EST
Ecuador v. Uruguay, 6 pm EST
Argentina v. Peru, 6 pm EST
Columbia v. Chile, 6 pm EST
Venezuela v. Paraguay, 6 pm EST

Like CONCACAF, if the teams at the top prevail (Ecuador over Uruguay, Paraguay over Venezuela, Chile over Columbia, Argentina over Peru), the top 5 could be set in stone going into the last matchday, or there could be chaos.

However, no matter what happens, Argentina will still be in danger of slipping to 5th with a loss @Uru in the final matchday. A place they haven't won in quite some time. It would behoove the USA to make sure we don't fall to 4th.
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C. Oceania/Asia Playoff: 1 Team: Leg One

Saturday, October 10th

Bahrain v. New Zealand (no Oughton), 11:30 pm, EST

Go NZ, maybe St. Dunc can bounce back and make the WC team if they qualify.

Leg two is in November.
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D. Europe: 13 Teams

Qualified Teams: Netherlands, England, Spain.

A) Group 1: Standings
1. Denmark: 18. Swe, Hun.
2. Sweden: 15. @Den, Albania.
3. Portugal: 13. Hun, Malta.
4. Hungary: 13. @Por, @Den.
5. Albania: 7. Out.
6. Malta: 1. Out.

Saturday, October 10th:

Denmark v. Sweden, 2 pm, EST
Portugal v. Hungary, 3:45 pm, EST

Denmark can clinch with a win vs. Sweden at home, the loser of Portugal/Hungary is likely out. Portugal has to like their chances for 2nd if they win and Denmark wins, with lowly Malta last, and a chance to pass Sweden on GD in the process. Swedes need a result in Denmark, though a draw and a big win vs. Albania could be enough with some help, or small Portugal wins.
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B) Group 4: Standings

1. Gemmany: 22. @Rus, Fin.
2. Russia: 21. Ger, @Aze.
3. Finland: 14. Out.
4. Wales: 9. Out.
5. Liechtenstien: 2. Out.
6. Azerbaijan: 1. Out.

Wednesday, October 10th

Finland v. Wales, 10 AM, EST
Russia v. Germany, 12 Noon, EST
Liechtenstein v. Azerbaijan, 2 PM, EST

Well, the Germany @Russia match is the marquee match of the day. The winner will almost certainly win the Group (Germany does clinch with a win), and the loser will be a tough playoff opponent in a hat that already is probably going to include France, and Portugal/Sweden. Though Blatter has announced the play-offs will be seeded.
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C) Group 3: Standings

1. Slovakia: 19. Svn, @Pol.
2. Slovenia: 14. @Svk, @Smr
3. Northern Ireland: 14. @Cze
4. Czech Republic: 12. Pol, Nir.
5. Poland: 11. @Cze, Svk.
6. San Marino: 0. Out.

Saturday, October 10th
Slovakia v. Slovenia, 2:30 pm, EST
Czech Republic v. Poland, 2:30 pm, EST

Interesting situation here. Five teams very much alive. Slovakia is in with a win or a draw, but has a tricky final fixture at Poland last. Still, no way they finish worse the 2nd.

Slovenia would likely take a draw, which would guarantee them at least a share of second with minnows San Marino (and their -43 GD) last, and would seem to guarantee them 18 points.

The Czech's can still get two 18 pts with a pair of home wins (Pol, Nir), but would need to better Slovenia on GD if a gentleman's draw plays out. Both teams are currently +9. Could the Czechs win by more vs. Poland and Norhtern Ireland than Slovenia @San Marino?

Poland still very much alive for second with a win, they could face an already qualified Slovakia at home last.

Northern Ireland is idle, and travels to the Czech Republic last. They need a Cze/Pol draw and a Slovakia win, and their playoff birth could be in their own hands.
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D) Group 2: Standings.

1. Switzerland: 17. @Lux, Isr.
2. Greece: 14. Lat, Lux.
3. Latvia: 14. @Gre, Mol.
4. Israel: 12. Mol, @Swi.
5. Luxembourg: 5. Out.
6. Moldova: 3. Out.

Saturday, October 10th
Luxembourg v. Switzerland, 12:45 pm, EST
Israel v. Moldova, 2 pm, EST
Greece v. Latvia, 2:30 pm, EST

Switzerland can clinch with a win and a draw in the Greece/Latvia game. Otherwise, it will need some kind of point against an Isreal team fighting for a playoff spot. Luxembourg already won @Swizerland earlier in WQC. Second is still wide open, with Greece having the inside track, but Latvia still having their fate in their own hands.
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The rest of the groups are pretty straightforward.

In Group 5, Spain are already in, and Bosnia-Herzegovina can clinch a playoff spot with a win @Estonia, or Turkish loss @Belgium, or a draw if Turkey fails to win. If they fail to get it done Saturday, they face a game with Spain, and I'm sure they don't want to need a result there.

In Group 6, England is already qualified, and Ukraine has a chance to leapfrog Croatia for the playoff spot, but must beat England at home to do so. Ukraine finishes @Andorra, and Croatia @Kazakhstan, so you'd whichever team is ahead after this week-end will stay there.

In Group 7, Serbia has a 5 point lead over France, and can clinch a spot with a home win over disappointing Romania. A draw could mean they'd need a least a point @Lithuania in their final match, as second place France are almost certain to win home to the Faroe Islands, and could possibly make a serious dent in the GD race as well (+10 to +2 right now). France close home to 3rd place Austria, who needs to win home to Lithuania and hope the French somehow fail to win vs. the Faroes. Lithuania and Romania are still mathematically alive, but need to win out, and have the French lose the Faroes, or they are out. I'd expect things to be settled by Sunday.

In Group 8, Italy have a 4 point lead over second place Ireland, and travel to Ireland on Saturday. An Italian win books their place, a loss means they could need a win vs. Cyprus to clinch on the final day. A win pulls the Irish within one, and would clinch them a playoff spot. A loss or draw and Bulgaria could still capture second with two wins (@Cyprus, Georgia), but would need the Irish to lose out (Italy, Montenegro) or only gain one point while losing ground on GD in the process (Ireland are +4, Bulgaria +3).

In Group 9, play is over. The Dutch are in, and Norway claimed second, though with a small point total in the battle for the top 8 second place/playoff spots. Norway's hopes are extremely thin, their best hope is to see Ireland lose out, but still grab second with 16 points (10 second points) because Bulgaria failed to win twice. I guess their are other scenarios where Norway gets in, but I think they are extremely far fetched.
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E. Africa: 6 Teams

Qualified Teams: South Africa (host), Ghana.

Africa plays in their final matchday in November, but they still have some big games on Saturday.

Group E is the most straightforward, Cote D'Ivoire can qualify with a win or a draw away to last place Malawi, or Burkina Faso fail to win @Guinea.

Group C is also pretty straightforward, Algeria can qualify if they garner more points home to Rwanda than Egypt do @Zambia. If both teams match, it will come down to a final day match as Egypt hosts Algeria, with Egypt needing a win. Currently, Egypt trail by 3 on GD (+5/+2) and the teams are equal on goals scored. Zambia is also still alive, but any Algerian points, or dropped points, eliminate them.

Group B is also pretty straightforward. Tunisia have a 2 point led (8-6) over Nigeria with 2 games left. If they win out, it's over, the teams are even on GD, Tunisia has one more goal. Tunisia host Kenya, Nigeria Mozambique. Everyone is still alive, technically, though Kenya and Mozambique will need lost of help.

Group A is probably the most surprising, with Cameroon's early struggles, and Morocco's continued ones. Still, Cameroon can clinch with a home win over Togo and if Gabon fails to beat Morocco at home. If Cameroon fail to win, everyone could still be alive going into the last day, when Morocco hosts Cameroon, and Togo (who qualified last time) host Gabon.
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Wow, too long.

[KCbus]

Wow. That was long.

I had to go out for a steak in the middle of that. And by that, I mean a ribeye (just to kill off any controversy).

[TrueCrew]

Originally Posted by KCbus

Wow. That was long.

I had to go out for a steak in the middle of that. And by that, I mean a ribeye (just to kill off any controversy).

Big week.

[TrueCrew]

FWIW, "Magic" Simon Elliott in the starting XI for the Kiwis @Bahrain today. 0-0 at half.

In Africa, Cote d'Ivoire have qualified, while Zambia, Burkina Faso, Togo, and Morocco have all been eliminated. Groups A (Cameroon & Gabon) and C (Algeria & Egypt) will go down to the last matchday in November, with Algeria & Egypt head to head. Tunisia could qualify tomorrow, but would need a win + a Nigeria stumble.

No real results of consequence from Europe yet, but:
Germany leads Russia 1-0 (would clinch a spot with a win)
Bosnia-Herzegovina up 1-0 on Estonia (win would clinch a playoff spot & eliminate Turkey).
Ukraine 0 - England 0. Robert Green with a Red Card, England down to 10. Sheva misses PK and chance to put Ukraine into the lead in the game, and ahead of Croatia. Game in 1st half.

[TrueCrew]

New Zealand get the draw away.

In Europe:
Germany beat Russia and get a golden ticket.
Russia are assured of a playoff spot despite the loss.
Ukraine beat England 1-0 and move ahead of Croatia into 2nd (I bet England is sooo sorry).
Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Estonia and clinch a playoff spot, eliminating Turkey.

It's conceivable almost all of the former Yugoslavia could qualify:
Serbia: can clinch their group tonight
Bosnia-Herzegovina: clinched in a playoff spot
Slovenia: tied for 2nd in their group
Croatia: just lost out for 2nd as Ukraine beat a disinterested England (need help from Azerbaijan to the the playoff spot).

Only Macedonia and Montenegro didn't make a serious run.

Still, I bet the combined team would be pretty strong.

[OU9601]

The Yugoslavian team and the CCCP would both be tough.

And just think, if we'd have kept going through Mexico in the 1840's, we'd be super-awesome, but half the squad would be divers.

[pettyfog]

Originally Posted by OU9601

...

And just think, if we'd have kept going through Mexico in the 1840's, we'd be super-awesome, but half the squad would be divers.

This.

Q: Which half of the squad?
A: The half in the attacking zone.
ooops: plus the odd Dmid when outside the box.

[CrewPens]

Tfc 1:0 sj 64'

[TrueCrew]

Well, UEFA is almost done for the day.

7 teams are now in for certain: Denmark & Serbia win to claim places in South Africa, and Italy gets an injury time equalizer a minute or so after letting on in, and they qualify as well.

UEFA Qualified Teams (7): Netherlands (Group 9), England (Group 6), Spain (Group 5), Germany (Group 4), Denmark (Group 1), Seriba (Group 7), and Italy (Group 8). Only the automatic berths from Groups 2 & 3 are still undecided.

Also, 4 teams have assured themselves of playoff spots: Russa (Group 4) did so in defeat, Bosnia-Herzegovina (Group 5) with a win, France (Group 7) with a win, and Ireland (Group 8) with a draw.

What's up for grabs? Not much, really. Aside from who prevails in Groups 2 & 3.

Short version: the other 4 teams in second place all have extremely easy games to finish: Portugal (Group 1, Malta at home), Greece (Group 2, Luxembourg at home), Slovenia (Group 3, @San Marino), and Ukraine (Group 6 @Andorra). Barring a huge choke, all those teams are no worse than second.

Slovenia can win the group with a win + a Slovakia draw/loss @Poland, and Greece can also take tops with a win + a Swiss loss at home to Israel. The best Ukraine and Portugal can do is second.

The Czech Republic, Sweden, Croatia, and Israel are all but eliminated for second, but could still get in if one of the above four fail to win. Some other teams could get in with even more bizarre results: Israel with the best chance among them.

And Norway are all but elimated from playoff consideration, unless you think Malta are going to blow Portugal out at home AND Sweden can't beat Albania at home AND Hungary wins big @Denmark.

So, other than who wins Group 2 and Group 3 (with the loser almost assuredly second), there won't be much in the way of drama in UEFA on the last day. Slovakia needs to win @Poland, and the Swiss need a draw or beter at home to Isreal. If they fail, they are second.

Now, onto the big stuff: CONMEBOL and CONCACAF.

[CrewPens]

TFC 1:1 SJ

SJ equalizer in the 90'+!