[DemitriMaximoffX]

With the RPI beginning to take shape, I figured it's time to take a look at how the field may possibly shape up come Selection Monday. I'm using a combination of cpthomas's RPI calculations and some intuition to try and piece together the NCAA Tournament picture. Expect an update each week and a little more frequently than that come conference tournament time.

A note or two about the designations below:

LOCK - 99.9% chance of making it in at the time, although teams may drop from this status with an unexpected loss of form, especially in these next few eeks

WELL POSITIONED - Teams in good shape if the season ended today but with work still to do to achieve lock status.

BUBBLE TROUBLE - Teams with very little margin of error at time of writing. Applies to both teams currently in the field but in danger of falling out and teams on the outside looking in at the moment.

ONE BID LEAGUES
-America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southland, SWAC, Summit, WAC

ACC
-Lock (4) - North Carolina, Florida State, Wake Forest, Boston College
-Well Positioned (2) - Virginia Tech, Maryland
-Bubble Trouble (4) - Miami (FL), NC State, Duke, Virginia

(UNC will be fighting for the #1 overall seed while Florida State, Wake Forest, and Boston College all look to be able to turn an eye towards capturing a seed. Virginia Tech looks to be in decent shape with bubble wins over UNC Greensboro, Lehigh, and NC State, although a loss to Villanova could be troublesome if the Hokies don't get some results in ACC play. Maryland has a win over Santa Clara and very little else at the moment, with a loss to fellow ACC bubble battler Miami (FL) likely to weigh heavily if the Terps can't escape mid-table in the ACC. The Canes have that win over Maryland and another over Washington but also have losses to Navy and Michigan dragging them down. NC State is here thanks to a win over Virginia but needs much more in order to stay here. The Cavaliers have done absolutely nothing of note with a defeat against Penn State also counting against them in the bubble picture. Duke probably needs to get at least four points from Wake Forest and Maryland this weekend to stay on the watch.)

Atlantic Ten
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (2) - Dayton, Charlotte

(Both Charlotte and Dayton are currently on the right side of the bubble but figure to slip seeing as how their A10 opposition are all below 100 in the latest RPI rankings. The Niners are probably better positioned with wins over William & Mary and NC State but lost against Villanova and would surely plummet with a league loss against anyone but Dayton. Ties against Western Carolina and Wright State means the Flyers would likely have to run the table and lose in the A10 Final to warrant at-large consideration.)

Big East
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (3) - St. John's, Notre Dame, UConn
-Bubble Trouble (5) - Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown, Rutgers

(Good luck figuring this one out. St. John's has wins over USC, Indiana, and UConn leaving them in good shape, but a bad loss to Princeton and a draw against Big East minnows Providence leaves them out of lock status for now. Notre Dame really doesn't have much on it's record except decisive losses to strong opposition but still has a handful of opportunities to build their profile. UConn has a massive win over Wake Forest but a loss against Penn State is something of a detriment this season. Villanova has bubble wins against Virginia Tech and Charlotte and a tie against Rutgers but a 4-0 loss against fellow Big East side Georgetown could be costly. Marquette has bubble losses to Pepperdine and West Virginia and a potentially bad tie against Pittsburgh with only a win against Minnesota helping their cause. West Virginia has been all over the place thus far, with losses against BYU, South Florida, and Dartmouth. A tie against Ohio State looks good, but draws to Pittsburgh and Boston University do not. Wins against Penn State, Tennessee, and Marquette could push the Mountaineers to the right side of the bubble though. Georgetown got awful fat off of bad teams and only a win over Villanova stands out. Will giving up a miracle hat trick to Penn to drop two points be costly in the end? Rutgers has a brutal tie with Stony Brook on its record along with a bubble loss to San Diego but also has wins over Penn State and Georgetown as pluses.)

Big Ten
-Lock (1) - Ohio State
-Well Positioned (2) - Illinois, Michigan State
-Bubble Trouble (5) - Penn State, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin

(The Buckeyes are probably the most tentative lock on the board, but you can't ignore wins over USC and San Diego away from home despite a loss to Pittsburgh. Illini have a good win over Colorado but have struggled for that second signature win to improve their standing. They'll have a chance when they face Purdue. Michigan State has a couple of bizarre ties on their ledger
but a win over Penn State eased some concerns although the Spartans need more wins to boost their profile. Penn State has played an ambitious non-conference schedule with little to show for it. Losses to West Virginia and Rutgers and a draw with Bucknell could be far more important than wins against Virginia and UConn. Indiana looked to be sailing towards lock status with a win over Florida headlining the resume but promptly dropped two matches to Wisconsin and Northwestern, thrusting them back into a dogfight. Purdue is riding a big win over Texas A&M but draws with Wisconsin and Wisconsin-Milwaukee have sucked them down in a hurry. Minnesota are in real trouble with nothing close to a bubble victory to aid their cause while fellow Big Ten side Wisconsin sneaks onto the watch with a win over Indiana and a draw against Purdue.)

Big XII
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (3) - Kansas, Colorado, Texas A&M
-Bubble Trouble (4) - Missouri, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Oklahoma

(Welcome to the schizophrenia conference. Kansas are closer to look status than you might think with a good win against Arizona State to go with bubble wins over Pepperdine, Long Beach State, and San Diego. Bad weekend in Colorado keeps them from lock status for now, but a sweep in Texas would surely do it for the Jayhawks. Colorado have been all over the place. Buffs have bubble wins over Oklahoma State, Denver, St. Mary's, and Nebraska but also have bubble losses to Illinois and Oregon along with defeats to big name schools. Texas A&M should be good with wins over USC, Portland, and St. Mary's but defeat against Purdue, Cal, North Carolina, and now Oklahoma means the Aggies will still have to work hard to get bumped up. Missouri have been unbelievably inconsistent over 2009. The Tigers have wins over Auburn and Oklahoma State but have also dropped matches against DePaul, Long Beach State, and Loyola Marymount along with a draw against Vanderbilt. Let's hope Mizzou makes it easier on the committee after Big XII play. Oklahoma State has a win over Kansas and nothing else to hang their hat on, with bubble losses in-conference to Missouri and Colorado. Nebraska has a few good draws but needs wins in a bad way. Oklahoma's win against Texas A&M lands them on the watch for the time being.)

Big West
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (1) - Long Beach State

(In a serious down year for the Big West, only Long Beach State has faint hopes of an at-large bid, helped by bubble wins over Missouri and Pepperdine. Recent losses to San Diego State and Loyola Marymount have all but pushed the 49ers out the door though.)

Colonial
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (1) - William & Mary
-Bubble Trouble (0)

(Another mid-major suffering a bad year. I'm not sure how the Tribe have risen as high as they have, with not much besides a win over BYU on their record. A loss to Santa Barbara doesn't help their cause, but if W&M keep winning in CAA play, they'll certainly have a case for themselves if they fall short in the CAA Tournament.)

Conference USA
-Lock (1) - Central Florida
-Well Positioned (1) - Memphis
-Bubble Trouble (2) - UAB, Colorado College

(Central Florida are going to be able to ride victory over Florida State all the way into the NCAA Tournament with a real chance to earn a seed if they take care of business in conference play. Memphis has some spotty losses on their record to Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Saint Louis, but how can you leave them out with wins over UCF and LSU? I'm not all that sold on UAB but the computers think otherwise at the moment. Colorado College has a big win over Washington State and a tie against Kansas but also fell victim to giant killers Cal Poly. The good news is that they still have UAB, Memphis, and UCF to try and climb the rankings. The bad news? They play all three away from home.)

Mountain West
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (1) - BYU
-Bubble Trouble (2) - San Diego State, New Mexico

(BYU's computer profile doesn't exactly sparkle thanks to a lot of cans, but wins over UConn, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State mean the Cougars should be just fine, especially if they beat Oregon. San Diego State are another computer marvel with little in their profile. New Mexico looks like a paper tiger, meaning this could be a one-bid league if BYU holds serve.)

Pac-10
-Lock (3) - Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State
-Well Positioned (5) - USC, Oregon, Washington State, Washington, Oregon State
-Bubble Trouble (1) - Cal

(They couldn't get nine teams in...could they? Stanford will be fighting for the #1 overall seed while UCLA will be in the mix for a top-four seed. I'm not sure of the voodoo math that has Arizona State as high as they are, but teams that far up the rankings usually aren't going to fall out of the bracket unless the bottom falls out. USC's losses to St. John's and Ohio State don't nearly look as bad as they did earlier in the season, and the Trojans have wins over Oklahoma State and Santa Clara. Oregon hasn't lost since opening night against Portland, with wins over Colorado, Loyola Marymount, and Denver to their credit. Washington State has a win over BYU but little else and will be looking for a result against Portland. Washington has bubble wins over Illinois and Colorado College to offset a loss against Miami (FL) and a draw with Cal State Fullerton. Oregon State has wins over Denver and Loyola Marymount but an opening loss to Portland State could be fatal. Cal dropped like a rock after falling to Cal Poly but has a win over Texas A&M in their back pocket to help out. Sadly, the win over Texas means little this year.)

Patriot
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (1) - Lehigh

(The computer likes Lehigh for reasons unknown, maybe tied to the win over Nebraska. They remain a long, long shot but could get a brief look if they run the table and fall in the Patriot League final.)

SEC
-Lock (4) - South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, LSU
-Well Positioned (1) - Auburn
-Bubble Trouble (4) - Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Ole Miss

(What a difference a week makes. LSU goes from being squarely on the bubble to being a tentative lock after wins over Georgia and Tennessee. Despite the loss, Georgia remains entrenched in the upper echelon of the RPI and look safe. South Carolina are in a great position to earn a national seed, while Florida will also be in the mix for a seed. Auburn gained a lot of capital with the draw against North Carolina but gave much of it back with a loss to Ole Miss who are creeping their way back onto the bubble. Tennessee are in big trouble with bubble losses to Arizona State, Pepperdine, West Virginia, and LSU hurting their cause. Vanderbilt and Alabama remain on the fringe, the former more so after two losses in the opening weekend of SEC play.)

Southern
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (2) - UNC Greensboro, Samford

(UNC Greensboro have boosted their RPI artificially with a very difficult schedule although a good league campaign will see them in the mix should they encounter trouble in the SoCon tournament. Samford are all but off the watch after a loss to College of Charleston.)

Sun Belt
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (1) - Denver

(Traditional Sun Belt power Denver has a good win over Kansas and a bubble win over St. Mary's but losses to Oregon, Oregon State, and Colorado likely mean that the Pioneers will need to grab the auto bid from the Sun Belt to go dancing.)

West Coast
-Lock (2) - Portland, Santa Clara
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (3) - Pepperdine, San Diego, St. Mary's

(Portland's brief hiccup against Texas A&M won't keep them from contending for a top four seed while Santa Clara's wins over Georgetown, Notre Dame, Purdue, and Colorado have all but sealed their spot in the tournament. Pepperdine has bubble wins over Marquette and Tennessee but also have losses to Arizona State, Kansas, and Long Beach State. There are still plenty of chances for the Waves to make their mark though. San Diego has a big time draw with UCLA and a win over Rutgers but an early loss to Cal State Bakersfield could be crippling. St. Mary's picked a bad year to beat Texas and an 8-1 loss to Colorado probably won't be soon forgotten by the committee.)

[cpthomas]

Very interesting work, DMX.

Something to bear in mind: If Teams A and B are in equal positions now, and if they have equal records from here on out, then Team A will be in a better position at the end of the season if it is from the stronger conference. This is because the stronger conference will beef up Team A's strength of schedule more than Team B's conference will beef up Team B's strength of schedule. Next week, check the conference rankings (average RPI for each conference), as that will give a very good indication of relative conference strengths from then to the end of the season.

This is something you might include in your consideration. (As of today, there's a big edge for the Pac 10 and ACC, so their "bubble" teams may fare better than other conferences' bubble teams.)

[Iron Man]

Provided they keep winning. Going into conference play in the Pac 10 or ACC and performing at or below .500 may not get it done anyhow.

[multisport]

Does it make any difference if a team is missing its starting GK?
Denver was winning big until GK Lara Campbell got hurt in Oregon...as soon as she was subbed for injury the game changed and the entire weekend was a loss.
Do not know how long she is out but that is a HUGE change in the team that was winning or if their defense can compensate in a relatively weak conference to get them through.

[Iron Man]

Originally Posted by multisport

Does it make any difference if a team is missing its starting GK?
Denver was winning big until GK Lara Campbell got hurt in Oregon...as soon as she was subbed for injury the game changed and the entire weekend was a loss.
Do not know how long she is out but that is a HUGE change in the team that was winning or if their defense can compensate in a relatively weak conference to get them through.

I would assume not, as everybody deals with injuries. But for selection purposes, there is a secondary criteria of "availability of student athletes" I assume for teams in a deadlock.

[cpthomas]

Originally Posted by Iron Man

I would assume not, as everybody deals with injuries. But for selection purposes, there is a secondary criteria of "availability of student athletes" I assume for teams in a deadlock.

That term is ambiguous, but I don't think it refers to injured players or players gone for national team play. It may refer to eligibility. For soccer, I doubt it's ever been used.

[cpthomas]

Originally Posted by Iron Man

Provided they keep winning. Going into conference play in the Pac 10 or ACC and performing at or below .500 may not get it done anyhow.

Not necessarily. Last year, Wake Forest went 5-5 in ACC regular season play and lost in the first round of the ACC tournament, for a 5-6 ACC schedule. Yet they still were #18 in the ARPI rankings and got a #3 seed. Of course, it depends on where they are in the rankings at the beginning of conference play.

[Cliveworshipper]

Originally Posted by cpthomas

That term is ambiguous, but I don't think it refers to injured players or players gone for national team play. It may refer to eligibility. For soccer, I doubt it's ever been used.

that pretty much means you can't put 11 players on the field.

UP played a tournament and went to the semis with 13 player once.

[chelseatime]

Originally Posted by DemitriMaximoffX

With the RPI beginning to take shape, I figured it's time to take a look at how the field may possibly shape up come Selection Monday. I'm using a combination of cpthomas's RPI calculations and some intuition to try and piece together the NCAA Tournament picture. Expect an update each week and a little more frequently than that come conference tournament time.

A note or two about the designations below:

LOCK - 99.9% chance of making it in at the time, although teams may drop from this status with an unexpected loss of form, especially in these next few eeks

WELL POSITIONED - Teams in good shape if the season ended today but with work still to do to achieve lock status.

BUBBLE TROUBLE - Teams with very little margin of error at time of writing. Applies to both teams currently in the field but in danger of falling out and teams on the outside looking in at the moment.

ONE BID LEAGUES
-America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southland, SWAC, Summit, WAC

ACC
-Lock (4) - North Carolina, Florida State, Wake Forest, Boston College
-Well Positioned (2) - Virginia Tech, Maryland
-Bubble Trouble (4) - Miami (FL), NC State, Duke, Virginia

(UNC will be fighting for the #1 overall seed while Florida State, Wake Forest, and Boston College all look to be able to turn an eye towards capturing a seed. Virginia Tech looks to be in decent shape with bubble wins over UNC Greensboro, Lehigh, and NC State, although a loss to Villanova could be troublesome if the Hokies don't get some results in ACC play. Maryland has a win over Santa Clara and very little else at the moment, with a loss to fellow ACC bubble battler Miami (FL) likely to weigh heavily if the Terps can't escape mid-table in the ACC. The Canes have that win over Maryland and another over Washington but also have losses to Navy and Michigan dragging them down. NC State is here thanks to a win over Virginia but needs much more in order to stay here. The Cavaliers have done absolutely nothing of note with a defeat against Penn State also counting against them in the bubble picture. Duke probably needs to get at least four points from Wake Forest and Maryland this weekend to stay on the watch.)

Atlantic Ten
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (2) - Dayton, Charlotte

(Both Charlotte and Dayton are currently on the right side of the bubble but figure to slip seeing as how their A10 opposition are all below 100 in the latest RPI rankings. The Niners are probably better positioned with wins over William & Mary and NC State but lost against Villanova and would surely plummet with a league loss against anyone but Dayton. Ties against Western Carolina and Wright State means the Flyers would likely have to run the table and lose in the A10 Final to warrant at-large consideration.)

Big East
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (3) - St. John's, Notre Dame, UConn
-Bubble Trouble (5) - Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown, Rutgers

(Good luck figuring this one out. St. John's has wins over USC, Indiana, and UConn leaving them in good shape, but a bad loss to Princeton and a draw against Big East minnows Providence leaves them out of lock status for now. Notre Dame really doesn't have much on it's record except decisive losses to strong opposition but still has a handful of opportunities to build their profile. UConn has a massive win over Wake Forest but a loss against Penn State is something of a detriment this season. Villanova has bubble wins against Virginia Tech and Charlotte and a tie against Rutgers but a 4-0 loss against fellow Big East side Georgetown could be costly. Marquette has bubble losses to Pepperdine and West Virginia and a potentially bad tie against Pittsburgh with only a win against Minnesota helping their cause. West Virginia has been all over the place thus far, with losses against BYU, South Florida, and Dartmouth. A tie against Ohio State looks good, but draws to Pittsburgh and Boston University do not. Wins against Penn State, Tennessee, and Marquette could push the Mountaineers to the right side of the bubble though. Georgetown got awful fat off of bad teams and only a win over Villanova stands out. Will giving up a miracle hat trick to Penn to drop two points be costly in the end? Rutgers has a brutal tie with Stony Brook on its record along with a bubble loss to San Diego but also has wins over Penn State and Georgetown as pluses.)

Big Ten
-Lock (1) - Ohio State
-Well Positioned (2) - Illinois, Michigan State
-Bubble Trouble (5) - Penn State, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin

(The Buckeyes are probably the most tentative lock on the board, but you can't ignore wins over USC and San Diego away from home despite a loss to Pittsburgh. Illini have a good win over Colorado but have struggled for that second signature win to improve their standing. They'll have a chance when they face Purdue. Michigan State has a couple of bizarre ties on their ledger
but a win over Penn State eased some concerns although the Spartans need more wins to boost their profile. Penn State has played an ambitious non-conference schedule with little to show for it. Losses to West Virginia and Rutgers and a draw with Bucknell could be far more important than wins against Virginia and UConn. Indiana looked to be sailing towards lock status with a win over Florida headlining the resume but promptly dropped two matches to Wisconsin and Northwestern, thrusting them back into a dogfight. Purdue is riding a big win over Texas A&M but draws with Wisconsin and Wisconsin-Milwaukee have sucked them down in a hurry. Minnesota are in real trouble with nothing close to a bubble victory to aid their cause while fellow Big Ten side Wisconsin sneaks onto the watch with a win over Indiana and a draw against Purdue.)

Big XII
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (3) - Kansas, Colorado, Texas A&M
-Bubble Trouble (4) - Missouri, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Oklahoma

(Welcome to the schizophrenia conference. Kansas are closer to look status than you might think with a good win against Arizona State to go with bubble wins over Pepperdine, Long Beach State, and San Diego. Bad weekend in Colorado keeps them from lock status for now, but a sweep in Texas would surely do it for the Jayhawks. Colorado have been all over the place. Buffs have bubble wins over Oklahoma State, Denver, St. Mary's, and Nebraska but also have bubble losses to Illinois and Oregon along with defeats to big name schools. Texas A&M should be good with wins over USC, Portland, and St. Mary's but defeat against Purdue, Cal, North Carolina, and now Oklahoma means the Aggies will still have to work hard to get bumped up. Missouri have been unbelievably inconsistent over 2009. The Tigers have wins over Auburn and Oklahoma State but have also dropped matches against DePaul, Long Beach State, and Loyola Marymount along with a draw against Vanderbilt. Let's hope Mizzou makes it easier on the committee after Big XII play. Oklahoma State has a win over Kansas and nothing else to hang their hat on, with bubble losses in-conference to Missouri and Colorado. Nebraska has a few good draws but needs wins in a bad way. Oklahoma's win against Texas A&M lands them on the watch for the time being.)

Big West
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (1) - Long Beach State

(In a serious down year for the Big West, only Long Beach State has faint hopes of an at-large bid, helped by bubble wins over Missouri and Pepperdine. Recent losses to San Diego State and Loyola Marymount have all but pushed the 49ers out the door though.)

Colonial
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (1) - William & Mary
-Bubble Trouble (0)

(Another mid-major suffering a bad year. I'm not sure how the Tribe have risen as high as they have, with not much besides a win over BYU on their record. A loss to Santa Barbara doesn't help their cause, but if W&M keep winning in CAA play, they'll certainly have a case for themselves if they fall short in the CAA Tournament.)

Conference USA
-Lock (1) - Central Florida
-Well Positioned (1) - Memphis
-Bubble Trouble (2) - UAB, Colorado College

(Central Florida are going to be able to ride victory over Florida State all the way into the NCAA Tournament with a real chance to earn a seed if they take care of business in conference play. Memphis has some spotty losses on their record to Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Saint Louis, but how can you leave them out with wins over UCF and LSU? I'm not all that sold on UAB but the computers think otherwise at the moment. Colorado College has a big win over Washington State and a tie against Kansas but also fell victim to giant killers Cal Poly. The good news is that they still have UAB, Memphis, and UCF to try and climb the rankings. The bad news? They play all three away from home.)

Mountain West
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (1) - BYU
-Bubble Trouble (2) - San Diego State, New Mexico

(BYU's computer profile doesn't exactly sparkle thanks to a lot of cans, but wins over UConn, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State mean the Cougars should be just fine, especially if they beat Oregon. San Diego State are another computer marvel with little in their profile. New Mexico looks like a paper tiger, meaning this could be a one-bid league if BYU holds serve.)

Pac-10
-Lock (3) - Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State
-Well Positioned (5) - USC, Oregon, Washington State, Washington, Oregon State
-Bubble Trouble (1) - Cal

(They couldn't get nine teams in...could they? Stanford will be fighting for the #1 overall seed while UCLA will be in the mix for a top-four seed. I'm not sure of the voodoo math that has Arizona State as high as they are, but teams that far up the rankings usually aren't going to fall out of the bracket unless the bottom falls out. USC's losses to St. John's and Ohio State don't nearly look as bad as they did earlier in the season, and the Trojans have wins over Oklahoma State and Santa Clara. Oregon hasn't lost since opening night against Portland, with wins over Colorado, Loyola Marymount, and Denver to their credit. Washington State has a win over BYU but little else and will be looking for a result against Portland. Washington has bubble wins over Illinois and Colorado College to offset a loss against Miami (FL) and a draw with Cal State Fullerton. Oregon State has wins over Denver and Loyola Marymount but an opening loss to Portland State could be fatal. Cal dropped like a rock after falling to Cal Poly but has a win over Texas A&M in their back pocket to help out. Sadly, the win over Texas means little this year.)

Patriot
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (1) - Lehigh

(The computer likes Lehigh for reasons unknown, maybe tied to the win over Nebraska. They remain a long, long shot but could get a brief look if they run the table and fall in the Patriot League final.)

SEC
-Lock (4) - South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, LSU
-Well Positioned (1) - Auburn
-Bubble Trouble (4) - Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Ole Miss

(What a difference a week makes. LSU goes from being squarely on the bubble to being a tentative lock after wins over Georgia and Tennessee. Despite the loss, Georgia remains entrenched in the upper echelon of the RPI and look safe. South Carolina are in a great position to earn a national seed, while Florida will also be in the mix for a seed. Auburn gained a lot of capital with the draw against North Carolina but gave much of it back with a loss to Ole Miss who are creeping their way back onto the bubble. Tennessee are in big trouble with bubble losses to Arizona State, Pepperdine, West Virginia, and LSU hurting their cause. Vanderbilt and Alabama remain on the fringe, the former more so after two losses in the opening weekend of SEC play.)

Southern
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (2) - UNC Greensboro, Samford

(UNC Greensboro have boosted their RPI artificially with a very difficult schedule although a good league campaign will see them in the mix should they encounter trouble in the SoCon tournament. Samford are all but off the watch after a loss to College of Charleston.)

Sun Belt
-Lock (0)
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (1) - Denver

(Traditional Sun Belt power Denver has a good win over Kansas and a bubble win over St. Mary's but losses to Oregon, Oregon State, and Colorado likely mean that the Pioneers will need to grab the auto bid from the Sun Belt to go dancing.)

West Coast
-Lock (2) - Portland, Santa Clara
-Well Positioned (0)
-Bubble Trouble (3) - Pepperdine, San Diego, St. Mary's

(Portland's brief hiccup against Texas A&M won't keep them from contending for a top four seed while Santa Clara's wins over Georgetown, Notre Dame, Purdue, and Colorado have all but sealed their spot in the tournament. Pepperdine has bubble wins over Marquette and Tennessee but also have losses to Arizona State, Kansas, and Long Beach State. There are still plenty of chances for the Waves to make their mark though. San Diego has a big time draw with UCLA and a win over Rutgers but an early loss to Cal State Bakersfield could be crippling. St. Mary's picked a bad year to beat Texas and an 8-1 loss to Colorado probably won't be soon forgotten by the committee.)

Now that we are moving into conference games, how do the non Pac 10, SEC or ACC conferences move higher in the rpi ranking if they are a bubble team? Do they have any chance at all at an at large bid? Or is that just a moot point.

Thanks ahead for any insight on this.

[cpthomas]

Originally Posted by chelseatime

Now that we are moving into conference games, how do the non Pac 10, SEC or ACC conferences move higher in the rpi ranking if they are a bubble team? Do they have any chance at all at an at large bid? Or is that just a moot point.

Thanks ahead for any insight on this.

Teams that are not from the conferences with high average RPIs still can move up, by winning their games to improve their winning percentages (RPI Element 1). Also, if they played very strong pre-conference opponents, and if those opponents keep winning, they can improve their opponents' winning percentages (RPI Element 2). But, in general, if Team A from a weak conference and Team B from a strong conference have identical records from here on out and are starting out with roughly equivalent RPIs, then Team B from the stronger conference is going to end up with the higher RPI at the end of conference play.

Watch UCF this year as an example. If they win the balance of their games, see how their RPI ratings change over time. Right now, by my calculations, they are #5 in the Adjusted RPI. This may not be exactly right, but it should be very close. Since Conference USA is only #8 in terms of average RPI, teams from the conferences ahead of it may pass UCF as the weeks go by, even if UCF wins the balance of its games.

A real life example was Portland last year. At the conclusion of their non-conference play, they were #1 in the ARPI, by a good margin. But, the WCC was relatively weak last year, at #6 in the end-of-season average conference RPIs. Portland won all their conference games, but ended up #4 in the end-of-regular-season RPI rankings, having been passed by North Carolina, Stanford, and UCLA.