[Yoshou]

Seattle Sounders (wDl) @ Columbus Crew (WdW)
When & Where: 4:30 PM, 10/3 @ Columbus Crew Stadium
TV: KING 6/16, DirectKick
Radio: 97.3 KIRO FM, Ke Buena 1210 AM
Online: 97.3 KIRO FM, Match Center, ATDHE.NET, Justin.TV

Sigi's return to Columbus after leading them to the MLS Cup victory last year. Should be an entertaining game. Columbus has pretty much sewn up the Supporters Shield and will basically have to fall on its face the next four games in order to not take the hardware home with them. Seattle is sliding fast and probably needs at least 5 points in its three remaining games. A loss against Columbus would pretty much require a win against KC and FCD. Columbus is undefeated at home and the Sounders have not been very good on the road except for the DCU games.

Columbus injuries and suspensions (as of 9/25):

OUT: DF Frankie Hejduk (suspension);
OUT: GK Andy Gruenebaum (R hip impingement);
OUT: DF Chad Marshall (L knee MCL sprain);

Seattle injuries and suspensions (as of 9/25):

OUT: FW Nate Jaqua (suspension)
OUT: GK Chris Eylander (L medial knee bone bruise);
OUT: MF Michael Fucito (R foot sesamoiditis);
OUT: DF Taylor Graham (R foot pain) ;

Questions of the match:

1) No Nate. Ljungberg up front again with Le Toux on the right?

2) Columbus can pretty much coast the rest of the way and not only make the playoffs, but also win the Supporters Shield. Do they start playing a more reserve like team in regular season games and play more of their starters in CCL?

3) Columbus is in down in Costa Rica tonight to take on Saprissa. Any effect on their play on Saturday?

[LordIceman]

"Seattle is sliding fast and probably needs at least 5 points in its three remaining games."


*At least* 5? Nah... 5 makes us an absolute lock.
4 points is all but a guaranteed playoff spot as well.
Even 3 gives us better than a 50-50 chances at this point.

Of course, we'd rather not go into the final match vs. Dallas in a must-win situation. So yeah, the more points the merrier :-)

[Yoshou]

The current cut off based on my estimated final points table is 42 points, but this is the lowest it has been since I started maintaining the spreadsheet back at the end of July. The estimate final points has been 42 two times, 43 four times, 44 three times, and 45 one time. Based on that, I'd say 43 is the most likely cut off. So while it is possible that 4 points will be enough, I'd say it is extremely unlikely that 3 points will be enough.

[WestSeattle]

PREDICTION TIME:

We will be punished and whipped like a rented mule in this one. An ugly game, against an MLS team that will going for the throat to win back-to-back shields.

Afterward, it will be the lowpoint of the season - the time when fan rage will reach its peak. The Sounders come back with two big wins after this, and narrowly make the playoffs as the seventh overall seed, fourth in the west.

I don't think MLS praises what Columbus has done enough. I think they suffer from full media attention, due to their market size. However, if this were LA or NY, the MLS would be fawning over this franchise. They've put together a quality squad, and are even holding their own in CCL (relatively anyway). Well done Columbus, you do MLS proud.

[ZipSix]

Originally Posted by Yoshou

...
3) Columbus is in down in Costa Rica tonight to take on Saprissa. Any effect on their play on Saturday?

The game vs. Saprissa tonight is in Columbus.

[LordIceman]

Originally Posted by Yoshou

The current cut off based on my estimated final points table is 42 points, but this is the lowest it has been since I started maintaining the spreadsheet back at the end of July. The estimate final points has been 42 two times, 43 four times, 44 three times, and 45 one time. Based on that, I'd say 43 is the most likely cut off. So while it is possible that 4 points will be enough, I'd say it is extremely unlikely that 3 points will be enough.

Are you familiar with this website?:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/M.../Sounders.html

I'm not familiar with how your spreadsheet differs... have you explained or shared that previously?

That site seems quite scientific and I'm inclined to believe the numbers. It comes out pretty much the same for us using both the weighted and 50-50 methods.

If we get to 42, it's extremely unlikely we get squeezed. DC would need to take 7 pts in its last 3 games (vs Chivas, vs Columbus, @KC) in order to pass us. Toronto would need to run the table. Really hard to see either scenario happening.

Of course, our most likely path to 42 is a draw at KC and a win vs. Dallas. That makes us sweat it out to the last day, which I'd prefer not to see. But I'd feel confident about it nonetheless.

So as far as I'm concerned, any points this weekend are gravy. It sure would make life easier, but a loss is far from crippling given our current position.

[Yoshou]

Originally Posted by ZipSix

The game vs. Saprissa tonight is in Columbus.

Bah. Misread the schedule. You're right.

[Yoshou]

Originally Posted by LordIceman

Are you familiar with this website?:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/M.../Sounders.html

I'm not familiar with how your spreadsheet differs... have you explained or shared that previously?

That site seems quite scientific and I'm inclined to believe the numbers. It comes out pretty much the same for us using both the weighted and 50-50 methods.

If we get to 42, it's extremely unlikely we get squeezed. DC would need to take 7 pts in its last 3 games (vs Chivas, vs Columbus, @KC) in order to pass us. Toronto would need to run the table. Really hard to see either scenario happening.

Of course, our most likely path to 42 is a draw at KC and a win vs. Dallas. That makes us sweat it out to the last day, which I'd prefer not to see. But I'd feel confident about it nonetheless.

So as far as I'm concerned, any points this weekend are gravy. It sure would make life easier, but a loss is far from crippling given our current position.

The results of my spreadsheet can be found in the playoff race thread.

With two games left after this one, you're right that a loss is far from crippling, but depending on the results of the other games in the league, it could make it harder.

[Chelsey]

Originally Posted by WestSeattle

PREDICTION TIME:

We will be punished and whipped like a rented mule in this one. An ugly game, against an MLS team that will going for the throat to win back-to-back shields.

Afterward, it will be the lowpoint of the season - the time when fan rage will reach its peak. The Sounders come back with two big wins after this, and narrowly make the playoffs as the seventh overall seed, fourth in the west.

I don't think MLS praises what Columbus has done enough. I think they suffer from full media attention, due to their market size. However, if this were LA or NY, the MLS would be fawning over this franchise. They've put together a quality squad, and are even holding their own in CCL (relatively anyway). Well done Columbus, you do MLS proud.

Three cheers for this guy.

[Ajas]

The other thing about this game-- it's Columbus's 7th game in 3 weeks. And all the competition has been stiff (Saprissa twice, Cruz Azul, Houston, Chicago, LA and us). They have been playing reserves, but that's still a pretty rough schedule.

I'd like to try to catch the Saprissa game if I can, at least to see who Columbus is starting. I could see them playing starting 11, since this CCL game is a pretty huge deal, whereas the Crew doesn't really have much to play for against us on Saturday.

It looks like the Crew can almost lock up a quarters berth with a tie, but if they lose, things get really really interesting.