[Patient]

Let me try to explain and make my case with statistical data as to why it makes sense to play for a draw in Honduras. However before I do that, I believe that we can all agree that when one handicaps a horse race of for that matter any competitive sporting event one looks at the historical data in order to determine and figure out the odds which then results into a strategy. Let’s look at the cold statistics of all the road games for this USMNT.

THE STATISTIC OF ROAD GAMES FOR THE US TAKEN FROM THE OFFICIAL FIFA CONCACAF WEBSITE

US 1 BARBADOS 0 (AT HOME US BEATS BARBADOS 8-0)
US 1 GUATAMALA 0
US 1 CUBA 0
US 1 T&T 2 (LOSS)
US 2 EL SALVADOR 2 (TIE)
US 1 COSTA RICA 3 (LOSS)
US 1 MEXICO 2 (LOSS)
US 1 T&T 0

Analysis: The aforementioned results clearly points out that this US team managed wins against the weakest teams and ONLY BY ONE GOAL. Against El Salvador we squeaked a tie and against the stronger teams namely Costa Rica and Mexico we lost. We even managed to lose in the first round to T&T 2-1. I think I am being kind in stating that these are not impressive results for AWAY GAMES. I can even make an argument that our homes wins against the better teams have been lack-luster at best.

Conclusion: Based on these results and if historical data have any meaning at all then we can honestly conclude that beating Honduras away could prove to be a tall order. We can also safely conclude from this data that this US teams has a very hard time scoring goals in away games. The greatest number of goals that we scored in an away game was 2 and that was a tie against El Salvador


ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION FOR THE NEXT 2 GAMES

Costa Rica with 12 points

As for Costa Rica they must get 2 wins in order to secure a spot anything else will simply not do. Let us assume that Costa Rica manages a win at home against a weak team like T&T (Clearly the odds are in favor of Costa Rica). If that result comes to fruition then they will need a win against the US in an away game. Now even though I will agree that chances are the US will manage a win or a draw against Costa Rica at home, let me remind the readers that, especially in soccer, a fluke can result in any game. I am especially afraid that a loss to Costa Rica could be the result of poor refereeing. I think most of us will agree that the referees in CONCACAF, to say the least, have not been kind to the US. How many times have we seen referees being very harsh against the US by either giving a red card and even awarding an undeserved penalty kick in favor to our opponents? Let us also not forget that the Honduras game, which precedes the Costa Rica game, could result in several yellow or even red cards causing one or more of our “key players” to sit on the bench (the likelihood of that happening is pretty good knowing it is going to be a harsh and hard battle against Honduras).

Honduras with 13 points

Let us assume that a doomsday scenario occurs against Costa Rica… namely they win both games thus securing a spot. The question is how does the US qualify? Again simply based on the statistical data this US team has a higher probability to draw vs. to beat Honduras in an away game. If we manage a draw against Honduras they will wind up with 14 points which means they must get a win against El Salvador (away game for Honduras) for a draw will simply not to do it. On the other hand should we lose to Honduras and they tie El Salvador in their away game, and based on goals differentials, Honduras secures a spot and the US is out. Therefore based on all the aforementioned analysis and statistics it is precisely why I would very much settle for a tie.

The bottom line is that we cannot afford a loss in Honduras for it could knock the US out. And that is precisely the reason why Bob Bradley must field a team that is extremely defensive minded and one that is going to be very difficult to score against (personally I would settle for 0-0 game).

Bradley’s Strategy should be:
1) Players must keep possession of the ball (no cheap give away, lots of short passes)
2) Double team as much as possible
3) Very tight defending (avoid giving space to the offense where they can score from a distance)
4) Take advantage of all counter attacks
5) Clog the midfield
6) Field your best players that can “keep the ball" (Donovan, Holden, Feilhaber, Davies)
7) Mentally play Honduras as if you were playing against Spain, Brazil or Argentina (a possibility)

PS On a brighter note should T&T draw Costa Rica 99 per cent we secure a spot (unless we lose both games by some ungodly combined goals from Costa Rica and Honduras).

[Mullet&Talon]

Only problem with #1 is that no Bradley team has ever shown an inclination to possess the ball. Bradley doesn't believe in possession apparently.

[SeaOtter]

Originally Posted by Mullet&Talon

Only problem with #1 is that no Bradley team has ever shown an inclination to possess the ball. Bradley doesn't believe in possession apparently.

I'm sure he believes in it. What he likely doesn't believe in is its success for our team given the group of players he has to work with

[PanchoM]

You mentioned handicapping a Horse Race , If a horse had the downward spiral that Costa Rica has been in , It would be on its way to the glue factory .

I understand your aprehension ,but much as I dislike it , the US should win both remaining games .

[rtung]

Originally Posted by Mullet&Talon

Only problem with #1 is that no Bradley team has ever shown an inclination to possess the ball. Bradley doesn't believe in possession apparently.

I don't know why I bother replying to you, since you're a Know-nothing if there ever was one, but the Chicago Fire team that won the MLS Cup is one of the best possession teams in MLS history.

[Squan]

We absolutely should not play for a draw, and we won't.

[Mullet&Talon]

Originally Posted by rtung

I don't know why I bother replying to you, since you're a Know-nothing if there ever was one, but the Chicago Fire team that won the MLS Cup is one of the best possession teams in MLS history.

What has Bradley done since 1998 jerkhole? 1998 had a lot more to do with Nowak than it did Bradley - so did the possession game.

[kokoplus10]

Originally Posted by Mullet&Talon

What has Bradley done since 1998 jerkhole? 1998 had a lot more to do with Nowak than it did Bradley - so did the possession game.

Are you implying that Nowak played a better possession game in 1998 than any of our starting 11 on the USMNT can today?

[iyutepo]

Good thoughts, but I think you're preaching to the choir, so to speak.

Originally Posted by Patient

The bottom line is that we cannot afford a loss in Honduras for it could knock the US out.

I will correct you here. There is no possible result on Matchday#9 that will knock the US out. If Honduras beats us 72-0, we still finish in the top three if we can manage a point at home against CR.

PS On a brighter note should T&T draw Costa Rica 99 per cent we secure a spot (unless we lose both games by some ungodly combined goals from Costa Rica and Honduras).

Very true. I'm hopeful T&T can win a point in this match, for we currently have a +9 Goal Diff over Costa Rica.

[RolexEmbezzled]

Costa Rica just fired their manager BTW, that ship is definitely sinking and getting ready for a November playoff.