[Foosinho]

Like George Jefferson, we're movin' on up. (And if you don't get that, you're too damn young.)

			GP	Foos	Rank	Pyth	Rank	Elo	Rank	Points	Rank	Form
Houston Dynamo		18	0.6284	1	0.6568	1	1482.94	2	32	1	DLWLD
Seattle Sounders FC	17	0.6088	2	0.6347	2	1489.36	1	28	3	WDDWW
Chivas USA		17	0.5906	3	0.5668	3	1394.22	9	27	4	WLLLL
Columbus Crew		18	0.5601	4	0.5363	7	1466.96	3	27	5	LWDDW
Los Angeles Galaxy	18	0.5432	5	0.5416	5	1442.94	6	27	7	LWWWW
Chicago Fire		17	0.5389	6	0.5631	4	1447.02	4	28	2	LLWDW
Real Salt Lake		17	0.5384	7	0.5379	6	1391.60	11	20	12	WDWDL
DC United		18	0.5341	8	0.5310	8	1446.22	5	27	6	WDLDW
Kansas City Wizards	16	0.5255	9	0.5154	9	1404.50	7	20	10	DLWLD
Colorado Rapids		17	0.5080	10	0.5121	10	1394.03	10	24	9	DLLWL
Toronto FC		18	0.4664	11	0.4781	11	1394.73	8	26	8	WWLWD
New England Revolution	15	0.4294	12	0.4402	12	1384.90	12	20	11	WLLDW
FC Dallas		17	0.4217	13	0.4259	13	1371.96	13	17	13	LWDWL
San Jose Earthquakes	17	0.3783	14	0.3479	14	1270.85	14	13	14	LWDLL
Red Bull New York	20	0.3116	15	0.3050	15	1217.77	15	10	15	DLLLL

We're starting to pull away from the rest of the pack hovering around 27 points, and close in on the top 3. We can boost our odds of making the playoffs to nearly 90% with a win on Saturday.

Red Bull are hopeless. Even if they go 10-0-0, they've got better odds at missing the playoffs than making them; that puts them at 40 points, but they'll still probably need help. And we all know the chances they win 9 or 10 games out of their final ten... well, a lottery ticket might be a better bet.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html

[CrewPens]

Originally Posted by Foosinho

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html

good god. how does one interpret this website and its graphs?

[Punch]

I like it.

If you click on the Crew, you go to the Crew page. Based on their simulation:

1. Beating RSL improved our chances 13.1% (i.e. there are now 13.1% more of the 10,000 scenarioes that have us making the playoffs). The only other thing that helped us was the Toronto / Dynamo draw.

2. If we beat Toronto, we'll get another 9.8% boost (and if we loose, we'll lose 16.6%). A draw also hurts us.

Not sure this really offers that much enlightenment. We all knew beating Toronto would be important. But it's kind of cool.

I wonder if it takes into account the two different divisions and the wild card?

[smithnwesson]

Originally Posted by Punch

I like it.

...

I wonder if it takes into account the two different divisions and the wild card?

i think it does. it seems to indicate that there would be a negative effect to our chances if the Rapids beat the NYRB even though NY is in our group. Though, with NY having such a minimal chance to get in, them beating anyone only helps us, regardless of conference.

Also, Dallas beating RSL helps us as well, even though both are not in our conference. I'm guessing it must have some calculation to account for that.

[Minkus2816]

We're number 1 in the RPI, FWIW.

[Foosinho]

Originally Posted by Minkus2816

We're number 1 in the RPI, FWIW.

But interestingly, not in mine (not posted). I'm curious to know how they are calculating RPI...

[Crewster]

Updated Crewster Point Standings:

EAST

Chicago 4
Columbus 0
DC 0
New England -1
Kansas City -4
Toronto -7
New York -17

WEST

Houston 8
Chivas 0
Colorado 0
LA Galaxy 0
Seattle -2
Salt Lake -4
Dallas -10
San Jose -11

You will recall that if every home team wins and every road team loses the rest of the way out, this will be the order of finish. Toronto and New York lose ground in the East. In the West, LA moves into a playoff spot.