(crossposted to my blog, Climbing the Ladder) The new FIFA rankings are out for August. Top 7 teams seeded (South Africa automatically seeded as hosts) Code: Total WC FIFA 1 Brazil 61.3 29.3 32 2 Italy 58.3 27.3 31 3 England 54.3 26.3 28 3 Germany 54.3 30.3 24 5 France 52.3 23.3 29 6 Spain 51.3 25.3 26 7 Argentina 51.0 21.0 30 8 Portugal 47.3 22.3 25 9 Netherlands 41.7 14.7 27 10 Mexico 36.3 19.3 17 11 Switzerland 35.3 15.3 20 12 Ukraine 34.7 16.7 18 13 Sweden 32.3 19.3 13 14 Czech 29.0 6.0 23 15 Paraguay 25.7 11.7 14 16 Ecuador 25.0 17.0 8 17 Nigeria 24.7 2.7 22 18 Cameroon 24.0 3.0 21 19 Denmark 23.7 7.7 16 19 USA 23.7 13.7 10 21 Uruguay 21.7 2.7 19 22 Cote d'Ivoire 21.0 6.0 15 22 Croatia 21.0 9.0 12 24 Australia 18.3 11.3 7 25 Korea 17.7 15.7 2 26 Japan 17.3 13.3 4 27 Costa Rica 13.3 8.3 5 28 Iran 11.3 5.3 6 29 Guinea 11.0 0.0 11 30 Romania 9.0 0.0 9 31 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1 32 Guatemala 3.0 0.0 3 Ecuador/Guatemala/Korea replaced Colombia/Uzbekistan/Honduras. Much of the following was originally written by eldiablito, so credit to him. Also thanks to him for doing this last time for many months. Apparently he hasn't been online in a month, so I've decided to do it tonight. Plus, I'm up really late when the rankings come out (3 AM central time). FAQ Why is this list different than FIFA's Coca-Cola rankings? Because Fifa's Coca-Cola rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula. What is the seeding formula used for? The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage. What is the seeding formula exactly? The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 2 world cups and the FIFA rankings. Part A: World Cup performance = (2002*1+2006*2)/3 Part B: FIFA Ranking = (12/2007 rank+12/2008 rank+11/2009 rank)/3 Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula For the purposes of this showing you the current standings in this thread, the current FIFA rank will count as all three years. How is the world cup performance determined? 0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year. 8 points are awarded for the bottom 8 teams in the group stage. 9 points are awarded for the top 8 teams in the group stage who didn't advance. All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points. How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded? Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point. How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula? I pick the countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation. For example, the best 14 UEFA teams by FIFA ranking since 14 UEFA teams will qualify. This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind. 14-UEFA 4.5-CONMEBOL 3.5-CONCACAF 4.5-AFC 5.0-CAF 0.5-OFC Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula? No, it might change slightly. For 2006 they only used the previous 2 World Cups instead of 3 like before. But they've been using the same basic formula since 1994. Previous Editions July 2006
Using the 2006 system: Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, USA Pot 4: Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay Special pot: Romania Group A: South Africa, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Ecuador Group B: Brazil, Sweden, Korea Republic, Nigeria Group C: Germany, Czech Republic, Australia, Guinea Group D: France, Portugal, Mexico, Cote d'Ivoire Group E: Spain, Ukraine, Iran, Cameroon Group F: Italy, Denmark, Japan, Paraguay Group G: England, Netherlands, USA, Uruguay Group H: Argentina, Croatia, Guatemala, Romania
Group G is pretty nasty. Group D is a postive GoD. Group A is a total joke, E is pretty inoffensive too. Group C sucks pretty bad from Australia's point of view.
im flattered that you think guatemala will be in South africa based on your numbers and research i really hope im a big fan of your blog and stats, you work really hard