MY bad, believing what I read again. Not sure how you conclude that this isn't Bradshaw's fault, since its his name at the bottom.
This is not the record of a team that should make the NCAA tourny. 1 quality win(VT) and the game was at home. Alabama A & M and Gardner Webb are you kidding me??? Duke (8-8-4,4-4-2) Aug 23, 2009GARDNER-WEBBW3-0485Aug 28, 2009vs UNC GreensboroL0-1587Aug 30, 2009vs UCFL2-3496Sep 03, 2009UNC-WILMINGTONW3-0398Sep 05, 2009UNLVT0-0341Sep 11, 2009at #14/14 FloridaL1-22251Sep 13, 2009ALABAMA A&MW8-0178Sep 18, 2009AUBURNW2-1630Sep 20, 2009LSUT2-2783Sep 24, 2009*at North CarolinaL1-22428Oct 01, 2009*at Wake ForestT0-0547Oct 04, 2009*MARYLANDL0-4475Oct 11, 2009*FLORIDA STATET0-0560Oct 15, 2009*MIAMIW4-0150Oct 18, 2009*at ClemsonW2-0328Oct 22, 2009*VIRGINIAL0-1421Oct 25, 2009*VIRGINIA TECHW4-1536Oct 29, 2009*at Boston CollegeL0-1443Nov 01, 2009*at NC StateW2-0341 Nov 4, 2009 * ACC Tourny L 0-2
The Bubble Ladder bows down to no man. Updated through games of Wednesday. Let's say goodbye to Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Colorado who all needed wins, but didn't get them, heartbreaking losses for the Vols and Buffs in extra time tonight. Let's also bid farewell to Virginia from the bubble ladder. The Cavs are going home, but the shootout loss counts as a draw for the Cavs, and that should be enough to seal their place in the NCAA Tournament. Also, it's a fond trip off the ladder for Auburn whose win over Ole Miss today should lock the Tigers in as the SEC's sixth rep. Finally, let's welcome Oklahoma State back to the party. The Cowgirls's win over Nebraska today tosses them back into the bubble discussion, but they need a win over Missouri to truly get in the conversation. BUBBLE LADDER - Version 3.0 1 - San Diego 2 - Rutgers 3 - St. John's 4 - Wisconsin 5 - Purdue 6 - Missouri 7 - Villanova 8 - Minnesota 9 - Indiana 10 - Colorado College 11 - Duke 12 - Arizona State ------CURRENT PROJECTED CUTOFF LINE------ 13 - San Diego State 14 - Dayton 15 - Oklahoma State 16 - Kansas 17 - Michigan State 18 - UAB 19 - Memphis 20 - Illinois 21 - UNC Greensboro 22 - Oregon 23 - Charlotte 24 - Northeastern 25 - Hofstra 26 - Samford
Indiana. One good win and a poor finish? I know they had a good record but aren't there other teams below them, on your list , with the same profile (one good win and record) more worthy? They would not even make the B10 tourney if they lose Fri night.
That's my point. I should ahve been clearer. If there was a tourney. I don't have anything against IU. Just wondering if teams who have played a better non conference are being penalized
In 2007, of the top 45 in the end-of-season RPI, 11 were conference automatic qualifiers. This meant that if the NCAA used only the RPI, team #45 would have been the last to get an at large position. Two teams ranked better than #45 did not get in: #37 and #40. Thus the NCAA was willing to bump a team ranked 8 positions below the threshold. Two teams ranked more pooly than #45 did get in: #46 and #48. Thus the NCAA was willing to add a team ranked 3 positions above the threshold. In 2008, of the top 47 in the end-of-season RPI, 13 were conference champions. this meant that if the NCAA used only the RPI, team #47 would have been the last to get in. Two teams ranked better than #47 did not get in: #40 and #47. Thus the NCAA was willing to bump a team ranked 7 positions below the threshold. Two teams ranked more poorly than #47 did get in: #48 and #49. Thus the NCAA was willing to add a team ranked 2 positions above the threshold. In 2009, of the top 44 in the end-of-season RPI, at most 10 teams will be conference champions. Seven definitely will be, with three not certain (Big 12, CUSA, and Atlantic 10). Thus the threshold will be somewhere between #41 (seven conference champions from top 41 teams) and #44 (ten conference champions from top 44 teams). It's tougher to get an at large position this year than it has been in the past two years.
My eternal gratitude to the upset minded teams that helped clear out a lot of the bubble today. Makes composing this ladder difficult as opposed to just plain excruciating. Let's bid farewell to Kansas (victim of Oklahoma State's good run), Indiana, Illinois, Northeastern, Hofstra, UAB, Samford, and UNC Greensboro. Let's bump up Wisconsin and Minnesota to lock status. We're now looking at sixteen teams for ten spots. Dayton or Charlotte will win the A10 auto-bid. San Diego State may win the Mountain West auto-bid. Oklahoma State may win the Big XII auto-bid. Memphis may win the CUSA auto-bid. Bubble Ladder - The Pentultimate 1 - Purdue (36) [In with a win over Iowa.] 2 - Dayton (31) [Probably in either way.] 3 - St. John's (42) [Probably in without a lot of movement below them] 4 - Rutgers (40) [See above] 5 - Oklahoma State (48) [Probably 75/25 with a loss] 6 - San Diego (41) [Benefit of the doubt, but I'm not sure...] 7 - Michigan State (46) [Bonus points from Ohio State helps] 8 - Missouri (50) [Rooting hard against teams below] 9 - Arizona State (35) [In with a win over Oregon, with a loss, shaky] 10 - Memphis (39) [Probably needs a win] ------CURRENT PROJECTED CUTOFF LINE------ 11 - Colorado College (38) [Results working against them] 12 - San Diego State (37) [URPI says yes, but I don't see it] 13 - Villanova (44) [Looking bleak with St. John's run] 14 - Duke (45) [Got benefit of the doubt in similar situation two years ago] 15 - Oregon (47) [Beat ASU and pray] 16 - Charlotte (43) [Probably needs a shootout loss to have a prayer wo/ auto bid]
DMX, I'll be posting the daily unofficial RPI report later today. I got distracted by going to the Portland v San Diego game last night.
Women's Soccer is starting to look like the BCS. Teams like Northeastern and Hofstra, Charlotte and San Diego should be in the dance. Justbecause their conferences are not BCS conferencess they should not be punished. Anyone can lose to a top team and it is just not fair to the little guys. That can compete with the big schools.
...except for the fact that in 2008, some of the at-larges were James Madison, Princeton, and Long Beach State. Northeastern, Hofstra, and potentially Charlotte aren't going to miss out on at-larges because they play in a smaller conference, they aren't going to get an at-large bid because they have no results of consequence.
Updated the ladder with today's meaningful games. Purdue is now a lock with their win over Iowa. San Diego State plays their way in by beating BYU and bursts someone else's bubble in the process. This might be the last update of the ladder. I'll probably eschew another version in lieu of a full field projection after tomorrow's matches. Bubble Ladder - The Final Edition? 1 - Dayton (31) 2 - St. John's (42) 3 - Rutgers (40) 4 - Oklahoma State (48) 5 - San Diego (41) 6 - Michigan State (46) 7 - Missouri (50) 8 - Arizona State (35) ------CURRENT PROJECTED CUTOFF LINE------ 9 - Memphis (39) 10 - Colorado College (38) 11 - Villanova (44) 12 - Duke (45) 13 - Oregon (47) 14 - Charlotte (43)
I would put Charlotte on the top end and drop ASU (1-6-1 in the Pac10 - NOT going). I'm also baffled by Oregon's presence on this list, even if they mathematically could still avoid finishing under .500 - they're 1-7 in conference). Northeastern and Hofstra are certainly more deserving (for instance), and the beating anyone of note deal couldn't apply to the discussion.
I'll take a shot at predicting the field tomorrow after all results are in, but based on what I see now, here's how my "bubble ladder" would look, using cpthomas' adjusted RPI: 1. Arizona State (35). Their RPI is just too good to be left out unless they lose today to Oregon. 2. Dayton (37). Interesting to see what happens if they lose to Charlotte today. 3. USD (44). Has a win over Rutgers to give them a boost here. 4. Rutgers (38). Win over Penn State looking very good now. 5. St. John's (39). Solid campaign for the Red Storm...gave UND a battle this week. 6. Duke (40). Blue Devils squeak in here. 7. Memphis (41). Two wins over fellow bubble team Colorado College will really help. 8. Villanova (43). Win over Charlotte and tie against Rutgers just might be enough. ______________________ 9. Colorado College (42). Their one signature win (Washington St) won't quite be enough. 10. Michigan State (45). Anemic non-conference schedule comes back to bite them. 11. Charlotte (46). Needs to win the auto bid to get in. 12. Oklahoma State (50). Finishing strong, but a loss today likely leaves the Cowgirls out. 13. Missouri (47). Regular season Big 12 champ doesn't have the computer profile or big wins to get in. 14. Oregon (49). Win today against ASU might be enough...but it might not.
Charlotte falls to Dayton 2-1 in the A-10 final. Dayton gets the auto bid, and I think Charlotte will be on the outside looking in.
Looks like Rutgers, ColColl, & USD will make it. OkSt & Memphis winning their conference tournaments knocked out a lot of other pretenders.
Here is a STRAIGHT RPI bracket, using cpthomas's unofficial RPI calculation... The final team to receive an at-large would be #44 Villanova. I believe that there are three teams in the RPI bracket in danger of missing the field: Villanova, San Diego, and Michigan State. I believe that there are four teams with a legitimate chance of bumping their way into the field from below the cut line: Colorado College, Duke, Missouri, and Charlotte. A comparison and my judgment on which three of the seven get in follows this post... First Seeds 1 - Stanford - Pac-10* 2 - North Carolina - ACC* 3 - UCLA - Pac-10 4 - Portland - WCC* 5 - Florida State - ACC 6 - Notre Dame - Big East* 7 - Boston College - ACC 8 - South Carolina - SEC* 9 - Central Florida - Conference USA 10 - Penn State - Big Ten* 11 - Florida - SEC 12 - LSU - SEC 13 - Wake Forest - ACC 14 - Virginia Tech - ACC 15 - Santa Clara - WCC 16 - Ohio State - Big Ten Second Seeds 17 - USC - Pac-10 18 - Washington State - Pac-10 19 - Georgia - SEC 20 - Maryland - ACC 21 - West Virginia - Big East 22 - Marquette - Big East 23 - Oregon State - Pac-10 24 - Texas A&M - Big XII 25 - UConn - Big East 26 - BYU - Mountain West 27 - San Diego State - Mountain West* 28 - Washington - Pac-10 29 - Cal - Pac-10 30 - Dayton - Atlantic 10* 31 - Virginia - ACC 32 - Ole Miss - SEC Third Seeds 33 - Memphis - Conference USA* 34 - Arizona State - Pac-10 35 - Wisconsin - Big Ten 36 - Auburn - SEC 37 - Purdue - Big Ten 38 - Minnesota - Big Ten 39 - Rutgers - Big East 40 - St. John's - Big East 41 - Oklahoma State - Big XII* 42 - Michigan State - Big Ten 43 - San Diego - WCC 44 - Villanova - Big East 45 - UNC Wilmington - CAA* 46 - Loyola (MD) - MAAC* 47 - Central Michigan - MAC* 48 - Denver - Sun Belt* Fourth Seeds 49 - Boston University - America East* 50 - Harvard - Ivy* 51 - Wisconsin-Milwaukee - Horizon* 52 - Monmouth - Northeast* 53 - Illinois State - Missouri Valley* 54 - Davidson - Southern* 55 - UC Santa Barbara - Big West* 56 - IUPUI - Summit* 57 - Boise State - WAC* 58 - Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun* 59 - Colgate - Patriot* 60 - Northern Arizona - Big Sky* 61 - SE Louisiana State - Southland 62 - High Point - Big South* 63 - Murray State - Ohio Valley* 64 - Arkansas-Pine Bluff - SWAC* Last Five In -Villanova -San Diego -Michigan State -St. John's -Rutgers Last Five Out -Colorado College -Duke -Missouri -Charlotte -Vanderbilt Next Five Out -Indiana -Northeastern -Samford -Kansas -Oregon
For those of you who want to play the guessing game with Dimitri, I've updated the tool I prepared containing nearly all the information the Women's Soccer Committee will be using. It's on the "Predicting the Bracket" page of the RPI website, in an Excel attachment at the bottom of the page. The name of the attachment is "Bracket Formation Data." You'll want to read the "Bonus Tool" explanation on the webpage, as a prelude to trying to use the tool. Here's a link to the webpage: http://sites.google.com/site/rpifordivisioniwomenssoccer/predicting-the-bracket
Comparison of Bubble Contenders Criteria One - Won-Loss-Record Due to uneven number of games, I'm using a percentage of total possible points for each team. 1. Charlotte - 79.3% 2. Michigan State - 64.9% 3. Missouri - 63.6% T4. Colorado College - 63.3% T4. San Diego - 63.3% 6. Villanova - 60.3% 7. Duke - 46.6% Criteria Two - Strength of Schedule 1. Duke - 17 2. San Diego - 54 3. Colorado College - 55 4. Villanova - 56 5. Missouri - 73 6. Michigan State - 78 7. Charlotte - 133 Criteria Three - Adjusted RPI 1. Michigan State - 42 2. San Diego - 43 3. Villanova - 44 4. Colorado College - 45 5. Duke - 46 6. Missouri - 47 7 - Charlotte - 48 At this point, adding up the placements with higher score = worse... San Diego - 8 Michigan State - 9 Colorado College - 11 Duke - 13 Villanova - 13 Missouri - 14 Charlotte - 15 Criteria Four - Common Opponent Results San Diego drew UCLA, Missouri lost to them. -1 for San Diego, +1 for Missouri Michigan State beat Ohio State, San Diego lost to them. -2 Michigan State, +2 San Diego San Diego beat Rutgers, Villanova drew with them. -1 San Diego, +1 Villanova San Diego lost to Kansas, Colorado College drew with them, Missouri won once and lost once against Kansas. I'll split the difference between the win and the loss for Mizzou. San Diego +2, Colorado College +1, Missouri 0 San Diego drew with Long Beach State, Missouri lost to them. San Diego -1, Missouri +1 Charlotte and Villanova both beat Temple. No change. Villanova and Duke both beat Virginia Tech. No change. Missouri beat Nebraska, Villanova tied them. Missouri -1, Villanova +1 Villanova and Charlotte both beat Davidson. No change. Villanova and Charlotte both beat Fordham. No change. Colorado College and San Diego both lost to Portland. No change. Duke and Colorado College both lost to UCF. No change. Duke and Missouri both beat Auburn. No change. Missouri and Michigan State both beat Iowa. No change. Missouri beat Northwestern, Michigan State lost to them. -2 Missouri, +2 Michigan State Villanova beat DePaul, Missouri lost to them. -2 Villanova, +2 Missouri Charlotte and Missouri beat Rhode Island. No change. San Diego beat Loyola Marymount, Missouri lost to them. -2 San Diego, +2 Missouri Charlotte and Duke both beat NC State. No change. EDIT: I've changed this to weight it equally with the other criteria. 1. San Diego -1 2. Michigan State 0 2. Villanova 0 2. Duke 0 2. Charlotte 0 6. Colorado College +1 7. Missouri +3 Standings after Criteria Four San Diego - 9 Michigan State - 11 Duke - 13 ----------------- Villanova - 13 Charlotte - 15 Colorado College - 17 Missouri - 21 Criteria Five - Head-to-Head Results The only head-to-head result is Villanova beating Charlotte. Villanova is already higher on the ladder than Charlotte, so no alteration. With the five primary criteria examined, I feel safe in saying that San Diego should be in the field. I also feel safe in saying that Colorado College and Missouri should be eliminated from consideration. That leaves Charlotte, Michigan State, Duke, and Villanova fighting for two spots. Criteria Six - Results Against Those Already in The Field Including RPI 1-75 Automatic Qualifiers For the record, this would include all teams in the straight RPI bracket through Boston University. Once again, due to unequal number of games played, I'll be using % points earned. 1. Michigan State - 4-1-1 = 72.2% 2. Villanova - 1-3-3 = 28.6% 3. Duke - 2-7-3 = 25% 4. Charlotte - 0-2-1 = 11% Standings after Criteria Six Michigan State - 12 Villanova - 15 ----------------- Duke - 16 Charlotte - 19 Criteria Seven - Results In Last Eight Matches 1. Charlotte - 6-1-1 (19 pts.) 2. Duke - 4-3-1 (13 pts.) 2. Michigan State - 4-3-1 (13 pts.) 4. Villanova - 3-2-3 (12 pts.) Standings after Criteria Seven Michigan State - 14 Duke - 18 ----------------- Villanova - 19 Charlotte - 20 So by my voodoo math, it would appear that Michigan State and Duke are the final two teams in the bracket at the expense of Villanova and Charlotte. It would appear that Michigan State is clearly in the bracket. That final spot? The math says Duke over Villanova, but it's razor close between the three teams. I think Villanova's head-to-head win over Charlotte is vital which basically means it's down to Villanova and Duke for the last at-large...
I'm trying to guess the 16 pods right now...the biggest obstacle I can see, without question, is how to split up all those quality Pac-10 teams so they can't meet in the first two rounds. Will be interesting to see who the committee handles this.
Like I said in my earlier post, I'm very curious to see what the committee does with the highly-ranked Pac-10 teams. Someone's virtually guaranteed to get shipped out East. The second-toughest fill for me was keeping all of those Big Ten teams in the 30-45 range apart. An initial guess (thanks for DemitriMaximoffX and cpthomas for all of their hard work!). Adjusted RPI in parenthesis, host site bolded: Stanford (1), San Diego State (27), San Diego (43), Colgate (139) North Carolina (2), Cal (29), UNC Wilmington (53), High Point (234) UCLA (3), BYU (26), Auburn (36), UCSB (104) Portland (4), Oregon State (23), Denver (66), Boise State (119) Florida State (5), Georgia (19), Minnesota (38), Kennesaw State (138) Notre Dame (6), Washington (28), Purdue (37), IUPUI (114) Boston College (7), UConn (25), Boston U (72), Harvard (82) South Carolina (8), Maryland (20), Rutgers (39), Loyola MD (58) Penn State (10), West Virginia (21), C. Michigan (59), Monmouth (90) Florida (11), UCF (9), Duke (46), Illinois State (98) LSU (12), Virginia (31), Michigan State (42), SE La St (171) Wake Forest (13), Ole Miss (32), Memphis (33), Davidson (102) Va. Tech (14), Texas A&M (24), Arizona St. (34), Ark.-Pine Bluff (249) Santa Clara (15), USC (17), Oklahoma State (41), N. Arizona (170) Ohio State (16), Dayton (30), St. John's (40), Murray State (241) Washington State (18), Marquette (22), Wisconsin (35), UW-Milw. (85)
I hope you are wrong about Ole Miss and where they get sent. It would be a travesty to play Memphis, again in the 1st game. I hope they get sent North, instead of East.