I thought I saw an MLS breakdown at some point in this forum-if someone knows the percentage or link...
Here's what I have for 2003-04: UEFA Sweden 04 - 30.8% Belgium 03/04 - 30.1% Italy 03/04 - 29.4% Norway 04 - 29.1% Russia 04 - 28.8% England 03/04 - 28.4% Czech Republic 03/04 - 27.5% Ukraine 03/04 - 27.1% Croatia 03/04 - 26.6% France 03/04 - 26.1% Israel 03/04 - 25.3% Spain 03/04 - 25.0% Poland 03/04 - 24.6% Portugal 03/04 - 24.2% Netherlands 03/04 - 23.9% Greece 03/04 - 23.8% Scotland 03/04 - 23.7% Germany 03/04 - 23.5% Serbia & Montenegro 03/04 - 21.7% Turkey 03/04 - 21.6% Denmark 03/04 - 20.7% CONMEBOL Argentina 03/04 - 36.0% Uruguay 04 - 32.1% Paraguay 04 - 30.6% Ecuador 04 - 27.2% Brazil 04 - 25.4% Colombia 04 - 25.3% Peru 04 - 24.9% Chile 04 - 24.5% Bolivia 04 - 21.0% CONCACAF USA 04 - 31.7% El Salvador 03/04 - 31.1% Mexico 03/04 - 28.9% Honduras 03/04 - 28.2% Guatemala 03/04 - 27.8% Jamaica 03/04 - 25.5% Costa Rica 03/04 - 25.0% Trinidad & Tobago 03/04 - 20.0% CAF Morocco 03-04 - 36.7% Senegal 03-04 - 33.4% Cote d'Ivoire 04 - 33.0% Angola 04 - 31.9% South Africa 03/04 - 31.3% Cameroon 04 - 27.0% Tunisia 03/04 - 25.8% Egypt 03/04 - 24.2% Zimbabwe 04 - 23.8% Ghana 04 - 22.3% Nigeria 04 - 16.3% AFC South Korea 04 - 38.1% China 04 - 34.1% Iran 03/04 - 33.5% India 03/04 - 29.5% Japan 03/04 - 26.4% Qatar 03/04 - 24.4% Malaysia 04 - 23.8% Vietnam 04 - 23.5% Thailand 03/04 - 20.0% Saudi Arabia 03/04 - 19.7% Singapore 04 - 16.3% UAE 03/04 - 15.0% Uzbekistan 04 - 11.5% OFC Australia 03/04 - 21.8%
As I'm sure has been said before, these are largely determined by how competitive (i.e., how much parity exists) these leagues are. The correlation between ties % and the standard deviation of points per game is a whopping -.77, out of the six leagues Real Ray listed. I'd be curious to see what a Uzbek league table looked like. Are there any other suggestions as to what might cause more or less ties? Less scoring, presumably?
http://www.rsssf.com/tableso/oez05.html Uzbekistan has only just kicked of the 2005 season, so there's 7 teams with 1 win and 7 with 1 loss. For 2004: http://www.rsssf.com/tableso/oez04.html I think it's team name GP W D L GS GA P
Thanks. Here's the average & median for those areas: UEFA 25.5 25.8 CONMBEL 27.4 25.4 CONCACAF 27.3 28 CAF 27.2 27 AFC 24.3 23.8 There are obviously some differences, but I think you can quote a ballpark number about what percentage of games end up as draws in professional soccer. The French number from this year and last year is interesting.
I only selected the most important leagues from each continent. Shall I post numbers for every national first division that data was available for?
Note: I mentioned my other data because the averages/medians that Real Ray came up with may not be as accurate once all the other leagues come into play. It turns out that African leagues are by far the lowest scoring of all confederations, and also (unsurprisingly) probably the most drawish.
One thing I was interested in was looking at it from various periods. These are the number from the English top-flight from the first season in decades starting 1950-51. Funny, that there were the same number of draws (236) in 1970-71 and 1980-81. 1950-51 24.13% 1960-61 21.00% 1970-71 25.54% 1980-81 25.54% 1990-91 27.11% 2000-01 26.58%
This was pretty interesting (well, for me) Look at Serie A in the 1970's 1950-51 760 168 22.11% 1960-61 612 166 27.12% ----------------------------------- 1970-71 480 212 44.17% 1971-72 480 170 35.42% 1972-73 480 170 35.42% 1973-74 480 184 38.33% 1974-75 480 188 39.17% 1975-76 480 166 34.58% 1976-77 480 166 34.58% 1977-78 480 190 39.58% 1978-79 480 214 44.58% 1979-80 480 194 40.42% Avg. 38.63% To add some others, here is a snapshot of Spain and some NASL when they played to draws-look at what expansion did. Spain 1960-61 21.25% 1970-71 25.42% 1980-81 22.88% 1990-91 30.53% NASL 1972 25.00% 1973 32.75% 1974 12.33% (8 Teams Added)
Re: 2004-2005 Draw Probability In CONCACAF For the 89 CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers so far, I counted 20 draws (22.47 percent). For the 65 CONMEBOL WCQs so far I counted 19 draws (29.23 percent).
Re: 2004-2005 Draw Probability In CONCACAF UEFA: Slovakia 03/04 - 29.4% Iceland 04 - 28.9% Romania 03/04 - 28.8% Hungary 03/04 - 28.6% Ireland 04 - 27.8% Austria 03/04 - 26.7% Slovenia 03/04 - 25.5% Finland 04 - 25.3% Moldova 03/04 - 25.0% Faroe Islands 04 - 23.3% Armenia 04 - 23.2% Northern Ireland 03/04 - 22.5% San Marino 03/04 - 21.4% Wales 03/04 - 21.0% Georgia 03/04 - 20.8% Kazakhstan 04 - 20.8% Lithuania 04 - 20.5% Albania 03/04 - 20.0% Bulgaria 03/04 - 20.0% Macedonia 03/04 - 19.8% Malta 03/04 - 19.7% Belarus 04 - 19.6% Latvia 04 - 19.6% Andorra 03/04 - 18.8% Cyprus 03/04 - 17.6% Azerbaijan 03/04 - 16.5% Luxembourg 03/04 - 15.9% Estonia 04 - 15.2% CONMEBOL: Venezuela 03/04 - 30.6% CONCACAF: Martinique 03/04 - 33.0% Grenada 04 - 32.1% Belize 03/04 - 30.4% Bahamas 03/04 - 27.0% Haiti 03 (league cancelled 2004) - 26.8% Cuba 04 - 26.0% Netherlands Antilles 03/04 - 25.0% Antigua & Barbuda 03/04 - 21.4% French Guiana 03/04 - 21.1% Panama 04 - 20.5% Nicaragua 03/04 - 20.3% St. Kitts & Nevis 03/04 - 20.3% Canada (CPSL) 04 - 19.8% Barbados 04 - 19.7% Bermuda 03/04 - 19.6% Aruba 04 - 18.7% Surinam 03/04 - 17.9% Turks & Caicos Islands 03/04 - 13.8% CAF: Kenya 03/04 - 36.6% Libya 03/04 - 34.1% Mozambique 04 - 34.1% Burkina Faso 03/04 - 32.6% Tanzania 04 - 30.6% Zambia 04 - 28.3% Algeria 03/04 - 27.9% Guinea-Bissau 03/04 - 27.8% Benin 04 - 27.7% Swaziland 03/04 - 27.3% Gabon 04 - 26.7% DR Congo 04 - 26.0% Niger 04 - 26.0% Mauritius 03/04 - 25.8% Uganda 04 - 25.2% Gambia 03/04 - 24.7% Reunion 04 - 24.7% Seychelles 04 - 21.3% Mali 04 - 18.7% AFC: Nepal 04 - 31.2% Bahrain 04 - 27.8% Oman 03/04 - 26.5% Syria 03/04 - 25.7% Jordan 03/04 - 24.4% Indonesia 04 - 24.2% Maldives 04 - 23.3% Yemen 03/04 - 22.7% Kuwait 03/04 - 22.0% Laos 04 - 20.9% Turkmenistan 04 - 19.8% Tajikistan 04 - 17.2% Hong Kong 03/04 - 16.7% Pakistan 04 - 16.3% Myanmar 03/04 - 14.2% Brunei 04 - 12.2% Bangladesh 04 - 8.2% Kyrgyzstan 04 - 7.2% OFC: Fiji 04 - 16.9% New Caledonia 03/04 - 13.3% Tahiti 03/04 - 11.0% Solomon Islands 04 - 10.7% Tonga 03 (no info for 04) - 6.7%
For WCQs so far in June: Africa: 3 draws out of 16 (18.75%) Asia: 1 draw out of 8 (12.5%) CONCACAF: 0 draws out of 6 (and only one game decided by one goal) (0%) CONMEBOL: 2 draws out of 10 games (20%) UEFA: 7 draws out of 34 games (20.6%) Total: 13 draws out of 74 games (17.6%)
It would be interesting to to do a study how much the number of draws are determined by scoring rates. ALso do the same teams have high draw numbers through several seasons? As a counterintuitive anectode: The Bundesliga had one of the highest draw rates in the season that 3 were awarded for win for the first time.
OK, found it. Here's a graphical chart showing average goals-per-game vs. percent draws, with a linear regression. Each data point represents a league; every national league that I could find results for is included. All data is for the last season concluded as of December 31, 2004 (that is, either 2003/04 or 2004). I've gone ahead and labeled the two highest-scoring leagues in the world and the two lowest-scoring; all the major outliers; and a selection of other leagues that are of interest to the BigSoccer community (Europe's big 5, plus the Netherlands, Brazil, USA, Mexico, and Japan).
Very nice chart indeed. All the major soccer leagues seem to be very close to regression line, with the notable exception of Argentina. Wonder if it`s a one-year aberration or how can that be explained?
Might be worth looking into past Argentine seasons and looking at where they stand on the same chart. I can tell you that South Korea is a one-season aberration, both in draw percentage and scoring. Usually they average about 2.4-2.5 goals per game, but for some reason the 2004 season only averaged 1.87. It's interesting, but not that surprising, that the important leagues, except for France (slightly below line) and Spain (on the line) are all above the line. Leagues in minor footballing nations tend to be fairly lopsided. It's more interesting, and more surprising, that all but a few countries in the Americas are above the regression line. Most are fairly close to it, of course, but one would expect closer to half to be below the line.