The 2010 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Numerical Arcana of Dubious Value [R]

I think you two are making the same point, and I understand what you're saying. But what you two are talking about I would call "mobility" -- in the same way one talks about social or class mobility. (And ElJefe actually says that.) MLS remains a mobile league. There are no permanent dynasties, clubs can turn things around over a season or two, and clubs can fall apart even more quickly. But that's mobility: the club hierarchy can change radically over the seasons and it does change radically.

I don't believe that's what parity means. Parity is perhaps best understood in view of the old NFL line/myth/ideal about "any given Sunday" -- on any given Sunday, either team can win any given game. That's got nothing to do with mobility from one season to the next. It's about the equality of teams at any given moment (as opposed to over time or seasons).

Anyway, it's very easy to measure the parity or disparity of MLS teams. Just look at the PPG throughout the seasons and check the standard deviation. Which is what I did. There have been seasons with greater disparity than 2010. But not in the last few years, and hence not in what you might call the modern era of MLS.



(Full size)

Edit ... one note on 2005. Take out the expansion teams, RLS and Chivas, and the standard deviation plummets to .24. Do that and 2010 has the greatest disparity since 2001.

 

I've got no idea because I really haven't looked into the strength of schedule matter at all. For that sort of stuff I've actually always gone to Jeff Sagarin's page over here. And, actually, MLS just posted an article on the strength of schedule, which you can find here. A cursory look at MLS's numbers would suggest there's a decent chance SJE tops NYR by the end of the season.

I have not. Might be interesting, but I'd be cautious about reading too much predictive merit into these numbers, especially at the sort of granular level you're talking about.

40 points gets you to the threshold, which ain't necessarily the same thing as getting you through the threshold. Just ask Colorado (and DC) about ending the 2009 season at 40 points and still missing out on the playoffs (they lost the tiebreaker for the last spot to a 40 point RSL).

I'm going to ignore this post so I don't have to figure out if you're right.

 

I checked. Turns out I pronounced DC United's season over on July 19.

 

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# M#  T#  HD#  HD#*[/U]
01  LAG  24  6  14  05  05  47  1.96  59  65  19  05  33  -35  -1.17
02  CMB  24  6  13  05  06  44  1.83  55  62  16  08  30  -20  -0.67
03  RSL  24  6  12  08  04  44  1.83  55  62  16  08  30  -20  -0.67
04  FCD  23  7  10  11  02  41  1.78  53  62  16  11  30  -05  -0.17
05  NYR  24  6  12  04  08  40  1.67  50  58  12  12  26  00   0.00
06  SJE  23  7  10  06  07  36  1.57  47  57  11  16  25  18   0.60
07  COL  23  7  09  07  07  34  1.48  44  55  09  18  23  26   0.87
08  SEA  24  6  09  06  09  33  1.38  41  51  05  19  19  35   1.17
--------------------------------------------------------------------
09  KCW  22  8  07  06  09  27  1.23  37  51  05  25  19  49   1.63
10  CHI  22  8  06  08  08  26  1.18  35  50  04  26  18  53   1.77
11  TFC  24  6  07  07  10  28  1.17  35  46  00  24  14  60   2.00
12  CDC  23  7  07  04  12  25  1.09  33  46  00  27  14  65   2.17
13  NER  23  7  07  03  13  24  1.04  31  45  -01 28  13  69   2.30
14  HOU  23  7  06  05  12  23  1.00  30  44  -02 29  12  73   2.43
15  PHI  24  6  06  06  12  24  1.00  30  42  -04 28  10  80   2.67
16  DCU  24  6  05  03  16  18  0.75  23  36  -10 34  04  110  3.67

Code:

GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
HD#* = HD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)

- Sorted by PPG, then fewest GP, then alphabetical.*
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.

* In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical 
sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother.[/B]

Housekeeping

1. When I do the next big update, I'd like to add a box with links to other MLS numbers resources. Shortlist: Setting The Table, SportsClubStats, Sagarin, Climbing The Ladder, PlayoffStatus. Any others?

2. By popular demand I've added a new column with the HD# expressed in PPG. There are actually two ways to derive that number, and the results can vary on some occasions due to rounding.

Option 1:

Step 1: [(40 points - Actual Points) / Games Remaining] * 30
Step 2: Round up (as explained in the first post)
Step 3: Divide by 30

Option 2:

Step Only: [(40 points - Actual Points) / Games Remaining]​

Example: Take SJE's numbers today.

Option 1:

Step 1: [(40 - 36) / 7] * 30 = 17.1
Step 2: 18
Step 3: .6

Option 2:

Step Only: [(40 - 36) / 7] = .571​

Obviously Option 2 is more exact, and I thought seriously about using that option for the HD#*. But I elected to go with Option 1 instead because I wanted to retain a very clear equivalence between the HD# and the HD#*. So, there you go -- full disclosure.

Anyway, looking back over my old posts on the DCU board where I first started thinking about this HD# measure, I always talked about it both as a 30 game extrapolation and in PPG -- "a 60 point pace (2 PPG)," for example. I'll try to revert to that old way of presenting things.

Notes

So SJE beat PHI, and I think the HD# underlines how big a win it was. Before today's win SJE's HD# stood at 27 (.9 PPG). With this one victory SJE's HD# dropped by 1/3 to 18 (.6 PPG). That's a very big leap forward. (Of course, that number can go back up if SJE starts losing games.) As for SJE surpassing NYR (a concern from earlier in this thread), a NYR loss to FCD on Thursday night would certainly help.

And PHI? The good news is you're still 6 points ahead of DCU. The bad news is you're only 6 points ahead of DCU.

 

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# M#  T#  HD#  HD#÷ [/U]
01  LAG  24  6  14  05  05  47  1.96  59  65  19  05  33  -35  -1.17
02  CMB  24  6  13  05  06  44  1.83  55  62  16  08  30  -20  -0.67
03  RSL  24  6  12  08  04  44  1.83  55  62  16  08  30  -20  -0.67
04  FCD  24  6  10  12  02  42  1.75  53  60  14  10  28  -10  -0.33
05  NYR  25  5  12  05  08  41  1.64  49  56  10  11  24  -06  -0.20
06  SJE  23  7  10  06  07  36  1.57  47  57  11  16  25  18   0.60
07  COL  23  7  09  07  07  34  1.48  44  55  09  18  23  26   0.87
08  SEA  24  6  09  06  09  33  1.38  41  51  05  19  19  35   1.17
--------------------------------------------------------------------
09  KCW  22  8  07  06  09  27  1.23  37  51  05  25  19  49   1.63
10  CHI  22  8  06  08  08  26  1.18  35  50  04  26  18  53   1.77
11  TFC  24  6  07  07  10  28  1.17  35  46  00  24  14  60   2.00
12  CDC  23  7  07  04  12  25  1.09  33  46  00  27  14  65   2.17
13  NER  23  7  07  03  13  24  1.04  31  45  -01 28  13  69   2.30
14  HOU  23  7  06  05  12  23  1.00  30  44  -02 29  12  73   2.43
15  PHI  24  6  06  06  12  24  1.00  30  42  -04 28  10  80   2.67
16  DCU  24  6  05  03  16  18  0.75  23  36  -10 34  04  110  3.67

Code:

GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
HD#÷ = HD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)

- Sorted by PPG, then fewest GP, then alphabetical.^
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.

^ In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical 
sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother.[/B]

Notes

FCD drew NYR. That result is sort of inconsequential for both teams. It did put NYR through the 40 point threshold, but that was going to happen sooner or later anyway. And it diminished FCD's chances for making a run at the SS, but not by much and that's sort of theoretical. The team it probably benefited the most was SJE who is now in a position to make a run at surpassing both FCD and NYR. Passing NYR is meaningless aside from bragging rights, but passing FCD would give SJE second place in the West. So perhaps this draw made the Western Conference a bit more interesting.

 

I can't believe I forgot about RSL. I was tired. What can I say?