I think it's time to start looking at this. The bottom second place team misses out on the playoffs and is eliminated. And yes, I know half these teams won't end up in second, and also that some teams have played more games. Results against the last place team are dropped, except for group 9. Ranked by PPG. Code: GP W D L Pts PPG GF GA GD Russia 4 3 0 1 9 2.25 8 3 5 Slovakia 3 2 0 1 6 2.00 5 4 1 Hungary 4 2 1 1 7 1.75 4 2 2 Switzerland 4 2 1 1 7 1.75 7 6 1 Ireland 3 1 2 0 5 1.67 2 1 1 Bosnia 4 2 0 2 6 1.50 12 5 7 Lithuania 4 2 0 2 6 1.50 5 4 1 Croatia 3 1 1 1 4 1.33 4 4 0 Iceland 4 1 1 2 4 1.00 4 6 -2
Thanks. So it's Group 9 then, basically. Only if one of them (Iceland / Scotland / FYR Macedonia / Norway) really start getting some consistent results, is there any point in coming 2nd behind the Netherlands.
Well honestly non of the NTs in that group deserves to be among the 13 nations from Europe. With the exception of Netherlands
Here is my calculation with +3, +1 for get points in away matches and -2, -3 for losing them in home matches. G1: (excluded matches of Malta) DEN +4. HUN +1, SWE 0, POR -6, ALB -6 G2: (excl. Moldova) GRE +4, SUI +1, ISR 0, LVA -2, LUX -8 G3: (excl. San Marino) SVK +3, CZE -1, SVN -1, NIR -2, POL -2 G4: (excl. Liechtenstein) GER +4, FIN +1, RUS 0, AZE -2, WAL -6 G5: (excl. Armenia) ESP +9, BIH +3, TUR -4, BEL -5, EST -7 G6: (excl. Andorra) ENG +6, UKR +1, BLR 0, CRO -2, KAZ -6 G7: (excl. Faroes) SRB +6, FRA +4, LTU 0, AUT -5, ROU -8 G8: (excl. Georgia) ITA +5, IRL 0, BUL -1, CYP -5, MNE -9 G9: (all teams in) NED +6, SCO +1, ISL -2, MKD -3, NOR -4 As you can see, at this stage, Czechia/Slovenia is the worst runner-up followed narrowly by Irland. For the irish, it will help them to a +2, if Georgia will be 5th instead of Montenegro.
As near as I can tell: Team----Group--MP-W--D--L--GF-GA-GD-2nd PTS Russia------4----5--4---0--1--11--3--8--12 France------7----5--3---1--1--7---6--1--10 Bos-Herz----5----5--3---0--2-14---6--8--9 Hungary----1----4--2---1--1---4---2--2--7 Switzerland-2----4--2---1--1---7--6--1---7 Rep Ireland--8----5--1---4--0--4---3--1--7 N. Ireland---3----5--2---1--2--5---6-(-1)-7 Scotland----9----5--2---1--2--4---6-(-2)--7 Croatia-----6----4--1---2--1---6---6--0--5 Now, it should be noted that the last place team in all the groups is not assured. In some cased it doesn't make a difference, but in some cases, it does. Group 1: Malta is the minnow. Their only pt is vs. Albania. Group 2: Moldova (now) or Lux if Moldova beat them at home. Switzerland lost to Luxembourg, so it they fell into last, the Swiss could gain 3 2nd points because if they get 6 vs. Moldova, they would all count. For everyone else (so far), it wouldn't matter. Group 3: San Marino are the minnows. Group 4: It could be Liechtenstein or Azerbaijan, but their only points thus far are against each other, so it wouldn't change a thing. Group 5: Armenia are the minnows. Group 6: Could be Andorra or Kazakhstan, but it won't make a difference as of now. Group 7: Faroe Islands are the minnows. Group 8: Cyprus, Montenegro, or Georgia (currently) could be the minnows, and it would make a difference for Ireland and Bulgaria. Group 9: all the results count.
update on the english average G1: (excluded matches of Malta) DEN +7, HUN +1, SWE -3, POR -3, ALB -9 As Portugal and Sweden still have to play in Hungary there chase for spot 2 are all but over yet. I think Media misjudge this group. G2: (excl. Moldova) GRE +4, SUI +1, ISR 0, LVA -2, LUX -8 G3: (excl. San Marino) SVK +3, CZE -1, SVN -1, NIR -2, POL -2 G4: (excl. Liechtenstein) GER +4, RUS +3, FIN -2, WAL -3, AZE -5 G5: (excl. Armenia) ESP +9, BIH +3, TUR -4, BEL -5, EST -7 G6: (excl. Andorra) ENG +6, UKR +2, BLR -3, CRO -4, KAZ -6 G7: (excl. Faroes) SRB +6, FRA +4, LTU -3, AUT -5, ROU -5 G8: (excl. Georgia) ITA +5, IRL +1, BUL -3, CYP -7, MNE -8 G9: (all teams in) NED +6, SCO +1, NOR -3, ISL -4, MKD -5 Although Macedonia is at -5 they are still to play in Scotland and Norway. A win in Scotland might boost them into the second place, but they would need a win in Norway too to make it not being the worst 2nd place. So, at the moments, the Czech are out.
Well, the Czechs are in 4th place at the moment. So, help me out here, why should we be interested in them exactly?
I think he means they're the 9th best second place team according to his way of looking at things currently.
Well yes, because they're -1, looking at it that way. But, does it relate to the real world in some way that I'm failing to grasp?
I think the Czechs actually have a good chance of finishing second: Current table Code: GP Pts Slovakia 6 15 N.Ireland 7 13 Poland 6 10 Czech 6 8 Slovenia 6 8 San Marino 7 0 Table w/future San Marino games Code: GP Pts Slovakia 6 15 Slovenia 8 14 N.Ireland 7 13 Czech 7 11 Poland 6 10 San Marino 10 0 Remaining matchups Poland - N.Ireland Slovakia - Czech N.Ireland - Slovakia Slovenia - Poland Czech - Poland Slovakia - Slovenia Czech - N.Ireland Poland - Slovakia Home-Away balance: 2-2 Slovakia 1-1 Slovenia 1-2 Northern-Ireland 2-1 Czech-Republic 2-2 Poland If every home team wins the matchups listed above, you get the following table: Code: GP Pts Slovakia 10 21 Czech 10 17 Slovenia 10 17 Poland 10 16 N.Ireland 10 16 San Marino 10 0
I'd say it's a better way to look at it than just looking at the current standings. The Czech Republic are still the favourites for second in that group due to the fixtures they have left. I still think Group 1 will produce the worst 2nd placed team. Hungary have four tough fixtures left (Portugal twice, Sweden and Denmark), whilst the two teams chasing them have both dropped a lot of points and still need to go to Denmark. That situation is tailor made to produce the worst runner up in my opinion.
Because in the real world it's how things end up that counts - how things are at the moment is the less important. Just like how Qatar is in a worse position than Uzbekistan even though Qatar are 4th in the table and Uzbekistan is 5th because Qatar can't get to 3rd but Uzbekistan can. J
Absolutely. But if I understand correctly, what we're doing here is (1) looking at how teams are faring so far, compared to an expectation of winning at home and losing away (but ignoring the bottom team), and then (2) assuming that from now on they're going to win at home and lose away. Is that a procedure that tends to work? Is it good at predicting outcomes?
Dunno. But it's more accurate than what currently appears in the table, which is only "true" if you expect no more matches to be played. J
Well, 1. They have a game in hand on the current second place team, Norhern Ireland (as does the entire group). 2. They have a game left with minnows San Marino. Only Slovenia can make the same claim. Relative to 2nd place N. Ireland, they are now within two points. 3. They have 3/4 at home: @Slovakia, San Marino, Poland, Northern Ireland. If their win vs. San Marino doesn't put them in second, notice how they have matches remaining with all three teams a head of them, two of which are at home. If they win all their home games, I'd say they stand a good chance for 2nd. The only team that could beat them out would be probably be Slovenia. BTW: I think Scotland will have be the worst 2nd. They have 7 now, with three games left: @Nor, Mac, and @Ned. I'd expect four points, max, giving them 11. I think any of the other seconds will best 11.
So the best second place team faces the 8th best second place team, in a home&away series to determine who is in WC 2010? The 4 I like to advance are Russia/Germany, France/Serbia, Bosnia-Herz, and Croatia or Ukraine.
Group 1 Sweden blew their chance to take a grip on second by losing at home with Denmark. I actually like Portugal's chance to finish second now, as long as they don't lose away to Denmark. Group 2 Two important games here: Switzerland is at home against Greece (9/5) and Israel (10/14). If they beat Greece then they should end up qualifying automatically. Israel is pretty much done for. Group 3 The biggest cluster******** of them all. As I wrote above, Slovakia seems likely to take first. There's a very good chance the second place team here will miss out on the playoffs, along with group 9's. I feel the Czech Republic is still the most likely team to get second. Group 4 If Russia beats Germany at home on 10/10, then they will likely qualify automatically and leave second place for the Germans. A draw would probably send Russia to the playoffs instead. Group 5 Bosnia is very close to being a lock. Turkey must beat Bosnia away on 9/9. Group 6 Ukraine has the upper hand here on Croatia. Remaining schedules: Croatia: @ Belarus, Belarus, @ England, @ Kazakhstan Ukraine: Andorra, @ Belarus, vs England, @ Andorra Not only do they play Andorra twice, but they also get England at home instead of away. Ukraine really should take second here. Group 7 France will probably get second unless they win at Serbia on 9/9. Group 8 Ireland should have second place pretty much locked up, unless Bulgaria beats Italy away on 9/9. Ireland could even get first if they could beat Italy at home on 10/10. Group 9 The key matchup here is Norway vs Scotland in August. If Norway wins, they should get second. Scotland will likely get 2nd with only a draw, but even then may not make the playoffs. They really need to beat the Netherlands on the final matchday, when they have nothing to play for.
Here's a couple of mock draws for the playoffs: Seeded Into Two Pots By FIFA Rank France vs Ukraine Czech vs Greece Russia vs Bosnia Portugal vs Ireland Unseeded France vs Czech Ukraine vs Greece Portugal vs Russia Bosnia vs Ireland
Can you explain, why Sweden "blew their chance to take a grip on second" and why you "actually like Portugal's chance to finish second"? Portugal 6 2 3 1 +4 9 Sweden 6 2 3 1 +4 9 Portugal: @Den, @Hun, Hun, Mal Sweden: @Hun, @Mal, @Den, Alb Both have the same points, both have the same GD, both play Malta (doesn't matter away or at home), both play away in Denmark, both play away in Hungary. The only difference is, the Sweden plays Albania at home and Portugal Hungary at home.
Portugal is a better team than Sweden. That's my reasoning. They're both at an equal spot right now, so Sweden has lost the advantage they had.
We (Scotland) are certainly no world beaters, but four points is the minimum we expect from that: Macedonia travel abysmally and the Netherlands (which is at home, not away) will be playing a friendly against us - they play an actual friendly against Japan four days earlier and will pick the squad accordingly. Six points from the last three games would probably be enough to qualify for the playoffs given the carnage which is expected to happen in other groups (three and one in particular). Five points is an outside chance.
They always seem to be good for a draw in England though. IMO they knocked us out of E2008 (ie those were the points we really shouldn't have dropped).