Quakes Playoff Chances week by week (R)

We beat the Galaxy. And put the final straw on a huge meltdown in their FO. I'm happy with that part of the season.

 

Ever the optimist huh? While I like the way you think realistically we're done. But it was a great run, especially in year 1.

 

I agree. As sad as I was walking out of Buck Shaw yesterday, I won't write them off unless they lose or tie in Houston.
However, now is the tough part - do I now root against LA, giving up on Wednesday so the EQ finish ahead of the Galaxy, or do I root for them hoping we win on Wednesday?
I also blame myself for the loss yesterday. I've worn my blue 08 Quakes T-shirt to every game until yesterday when I wore a T-shirt with Tottenham and EQ logos. should have stuck with my blue shirt.
No matter the end result by Oct 25, though, this will have been a successful season. EQLLC decided to play this season instead of next, Lew Wolff seems to really like the team (and the Tottenham deal is NOT something you do if you think your upcoming stadium plan might be derailed), the players have been accepted by the fans, Yallop is still a great coach, the games have been exciting, the team had the best unbeaten streak this season, Huckerby and O'Brian have given us some unforgettable moments, and the EQ beat LA at the Coliseum. Imagine if the refs had given us decent calls but we had still fallen short? At least this way we even have villains to blame at season's end.
I'll be watching Wednesday, willing the team to a 2-1 win in Houston. Maybe I should wear my blue shirt?

 

With 2 wins and a draw we still have a reasonable shot at the playoffs.

What we need next week is:

Chivas to win at home.
Houston to not lose at home (vs LA).

A bonus would be the super-Crew winning in New York.

If that happens and we nab 4 points this week, we'll go into the Toronto match with a real shot.

 

I'm starting to feel better!

 

Well, 16 people are already wrong in this poll. hooray!

Thanks dred for keeping our hopes up.

 

How come the folks on this board who have the biggest mouths and the most to say, all the time, on every subject, didn't bother to vote in this poll?

Is this really the only time they don't have an opinion?

 

You mean you didn't vote?

 

Sorry. It was a sitter only Kei Kamara could miss.

 

With the 1-2 loss to Houston on 10/15, SJ's chance took a huge dent, but can they still qualify for playoffs? (at least MLSnet.com haven't eliminate them yet...)

For the last 2 weeks of matches, let's just say everything go SJ's way:

29 2008-10-16 DCU 0 - 1 NER
29 2008-10-18 KCW 0 - 1 SJE
29 2008-10-18 NYRB 0 - 1 CLB
29 2008-10-18 RSL 1 - 0 FCD
29 2008-10-18 TFC 0 - 1 CHI
29 2008-10-19 HOU 1 - 0 LAG
29 2008-10-19 Chivas 1 - 0 COL

30 2008-10-23 CHI 1 - 0 NYRB
30 2008-10-25 Chivas 1 - 0 HOU
30 2008-10-25 COL 0 - 1 RSL
30 2008-10-25 NER 1 - 0 KCW
30 2008-10-25 SJE 1 - 0 TFC
30 2008-10-26 CLB 1 - 0 DCU
30 2008-10-26 LAG 1 - 0 FCD

#. Team ------- P- W D- L- GF - GA Pts GD
7. San José---- 30 9 09 12 30 - 35 36 (-5)
8. New York---- 30 9 09 12 37 - 44 36 (-7)
9. Kansas City- 30 9 09 12 31 - 38 36 (-7)
10. Dallas----- 30 8 11 11 42 - 38 35 (+4)
11. Los Angeles 30 9 08 13 54 - 58 35 (-4)
12. Toronto FC- 30 9 08 13 32 - 40 35 (-8)
13. Colorado--- 30 10 4 16 41 - 45 34 (-4)
14. D.C. United 30 10 4 16 41 - 51 34 (-10)

SJE will then be in a 3-way tie with NYRB & KCW, head to head becomes:
SJE- 2-1-1 7
NYRB 1-1-2 5
KCW- 1-2-1 4

So SJE can still qualify from 7th place as one of the wild card teams! (Obviously there're a lot more scenarios, will try to post them up later...)

 

MLSnet Report said:

I guess this arguement is wrong...

As it stands (10/15), both KCW & NYRB already have 36 points, the max SJE can get. Any more points both teams earn (through going winless with ties) will put SJE out of the top-8 for wild card slots.

For now, SJE at least need KCW losing out to survive. They can't catch NYRB in a 2-way tie breaker, though it's possible in a 3-way one as indicated in the immediate post earlier.

Scenario #2 (NYRB earn at least a point from their final 2 games):
#. Team ------- P- W D- L- GF - GA Pts GD
7. New York---- 30 9 10 11 37 - 43 37 (-6)
8. San José---- 30 9 09 12 30 - 35 36 (-5)
9. Kansas City- 30 9 09 12 31 - 38 36 (-7)
10. Dallas----- 30 8 11 11 42 - 38 35 (+4)
11. Los Angeles 30 9 08 13 54 - 58 35 (-4)
12. Toronto FC- 30 9 08 13 32 - 40 35 (-8)
13. Colorado--- 30 10 4 16 41 - 45 34 (-4)
14. D.C. United 30 10 4 16 41 - 51 34 (-10)

A 2-way tie breaker with KCW allows SJE to qualify from 8th place:
SJE- 2-0-0 6
KCW- 0-2-0 0

 

Ir was an honor being nominated.

 

DC beat NE 2-1 tonight, which brings elimination even closer. The only playoff chance for the Quakes involves a 3-way or greater tie with KC and NY for the final wild card, as the Quakes win that 3-way tiebreaker. Add Colorado or Dallas to create a 4-way tie and the Quakes still win. The Quakes do not win a 4-way tiebreaker including LA.

The Quakes will be eliminated on Saturday if any of the following happen:

1) SJ does not beat KC
2) NY gets a point vs. Columbus
3) Dallas beats RSL
4) Dallas ties RSL AND LA gets a point vs. Houston

If they make it through Saturday, they can be eliminated Sunday if Colorado beats Chivas USA.

 

But I wasn't talking about you.

 

Thanks for bringing this up. Below are the detailed analysis.
Note: Tables in all scenarios tentatively sorted by Pts, GD & GS.

------------------------------------------------

Scenario #3 (SJE tie with KCW/NYRB & 1 or more teams from COL/FCD/LAG for Joint-8th, TFC won't join the tie if SJE win out):

SJE's 2-way tie-breakers vs each team in the order of their advantage:
A. COL, 1 win 1 tie
B. FCD, 2 ties (GS:1, GA:1)
C. LAG, 1 win 2 losses

------------------------------------------------

A. 4-way tie: Consider the most favourable COL with 1 win 1 tie:
#. Team ------- P- W D- L- GS - GA Pts GD
8. Colorado---- 30 10 6 14 41 - 43 36 (-2)
9. San José---- 30 9 09 12 30 - 35 36 (-5)
10. New York--- 30 9 09 12 37 - 44 36 (-7)
11. Kansas City 30 9 09 12 31 - 38 36 (-7)
12. Dallas----- 30 8 11 11 42 - 38 35 (+4)
13. Los Angeles 30 9 08 13 54 - 58 35 (-4)
14. Toronto FC- 30 9 08 13 32 - 40 35 (-8)

Tie-breakers see SJE qualify in 8th-place:
SJE- 3-1-2 11
COL- 3-2-1 10
KCW- 2-3-1 7
NYRB 1-3-2 5

------------------------------------------------

B. 4-way tie: Consider the next favourable FCD with 2 ties:
#. Team ------- P- W D- L- GS - GA Pts GD
8. Dallas------ 30 8 12 10 42 - 37 36 (+5)
9. San José---- 30 9 09 12 30 - 35 36 (-5)
10. New York--- 30 9 09 12 37 - 44 36 (-7)
11. Kansas City 30 9 09 12 31 - 38 36 (-7)
12. Colorado--- 30 10 5 15 41 - 44 35 (-3)
13. Los Angeles 30 9 08 13 54 - 58 35 (-4)
14. Toronto FC- 30 9 08 13 32 - 40 35 (-8)

Tie-breakers still see SJE qualify in 8th-place:
SJE- 2-1-3 9
NYRB 2-2-2 8
FCD- 1-1-4 7
KCW- 1-2-3 6

------------------------------------------------

C. 4-way tie: Consider the least favourable LAG with 1 win 2 losses:
#. Team ------- P- W D- L- GS - GA Pts GD
8. Los Angeles- 30 9 09 12 54 - 57 36 (-3)
9. San José---- 30 9 09 12 30 - 35 36 (-5)
10. New York--- 30 9 09 12 37 - 44 36 (-7)
11. Kansas City 30 9 09 12 31 - 38 36 (-7)
12. Dallas----- 30 8 11 11 42 - 38 35 (+4)
13. Colorado--- 30 10 5 15 41 - 44 35 (-3)
14. Toronto FC- 30 9 08 13 32 - 40 35 (-8)

Tie-breakers see LAG qualify in 8th-place instead, elimininating SJE:
LAG- 3-3-1 10
SJE- 3-3-1 10
KCW- 2-3-1 7
NYRB 2-1-3 5

------------------------------------------------

D. 5-way tie: Include both the more favourable COL/FCD:
#. Team ------- P- W D- L- GS - GA Pts GD
8. Dallas------ 30 8 12 10 42 - 37 36 (+5)
9. Colorado---- 30 10 6 14 41 - 43 36 (-2)
10. San José--- 30 9 09 12 30 - 35 36 (-5)
11. New York--- 30 9 09 12 37 - 44 36 (-7)
12. Kansas City 30 9 09 12 31 - 38 36 (-7)
13. Los Angeles 30 9 08 13 54 - 58 35 (-4)
14. Toronto FC- 30 9 08 13 32 - 40 35 (-8)

Tie-breakers see COL qualify in 8th-place, eliminating SJE:
COL- 5-2-2 17
SJE- 3-1-4 13
KCW- 2-3-3 9
NYRB 2-4-2 8
FCD- 1-3-5 8

------------------------------------------------

E. 6-way tie: Include COL/FCD/LAG at one go:
#. Team ------- P- W D- L- GS - GA Pts GD
8. Dallas------ 30 8 12 10 42 - 37 36 (+5)
9. Colorado---- 30 10 6 14 41 - 43 36 (-2)
10. Los Angeles 30 9 09 12 54 - 57 36 (-3)
11. San José--- 30 9 09 12 30 - 35 36 (-5)
12. New York--- 30 9 09 12 37 - 44 36 (-7)
13. Kansas City 30 9 09 12 31 - 38 36 (-7)
14. Toronto FC- 30 9 08 13 32 - 40 35 (-8)

Tie-breakers see LAG qualify in 8th-place, eliminating everyone else in this mess!
LAG- 7-5-1 22
COL- 6-4-2 20
SJE- 4-3-4 16
KCW- 3-4-3 12
NYRB 3-4-3 12
FCD- 2-5-5 11

 

The Playoff Race
by Ridge Mahoney, Friday, Oct 17, 2008 7:00 AM ET
[MLS] With its win over New England on Thursday, D.C. United climbed on top of a very tight group behind the five qualifiers: Columbus, Houston, New England, Chicago, and Chivas USA. Here's the current standings, with teams tied in points listed in order of tiebreaker superiority, if any, and remaining games. ...

6. Real Salt Lake (3rd in Western Conference), 36 points. FCD Dallas, @Colorado.
7. D.C. United, 37 points. @Columbus.
8. Kansas City, 36 points (wins head-to-head vs. New York). San Jose, @New England.
---------------------------------
9. New York, 36 points Columbus, @Chicago.
10. FC Dallas, 35 points. @Real Salt Lake, @Los Angeles.
11. Colorado, 34 points. @Chivas USA, Real Salt Lake.
12. Toronto, 32 points. Chicago, @San Jose.
13. Los Angeles, 32 points. @Houston, FC Dallas.
14. San Jose, 30 points. @Kansas City, Toronto FC.

If Real Salt Lake doesn't finish third, it may be in trouble, as it loses tiebreakers to New York and Kansas City and holds the edge over only San Jose. If New York and Kansas City tie, the Wizards get the slot.

How does D.C. stack up against its foes in tiebreakers? Not so well. It has lost the season series to Dallas and the only team it beats outright head-to-head is Toronto. Believe it or not, it has finished the regular season tied with the other six teams, either at 1-1 or 1-1-1.

The next tiebreaker is goal difference, and it is near the bottom at minus-7. Only TFC is worse at minus-8.

New York is the only team to have won the season series against three of its eight rivals: San Jose, Los Angeles and Real Salt Lake. But it has lost head-to-head against Colorado and Kansas City, and its minus-5 goal difference ain't great.

The good news for FC Dallas is a plus-6 goal differential and a head-to-head edge vs. United. The bad news is both of its remaining games are on the road and it needs to win one of them. Two ties probably won't get it done.

San Jose is not officially eliminated but it will be this weekend unless it beats Kansas City, New York loses to Columbus, Dallas loses in Salt Lake City, and Colorado doesn't beat Chivas USA.

MLS STANDINGS
Eastern Conference
* Columbus 54 points
* Chicago 43
* New England 43
D.C. United 37
New York 36
Kansas City 36
Toronto FC 32

Western Conference
* Houston 47
* Chivas USA 42
Real Salt Lake 36
FC Dallas 35
Colorado 34
Los Angeles 32
San Jose 30
* Clinched playoff berth.

 

Only thing left to do now, is give the boys a good send off next Saturday and then spend the next 4 months chasing rumors.

 

Ok guys in the end, we are an expansion team and we with 1 game left I believe, we are only 8 points away from a playoff spot and 2 points away from the 350 million dollar team......Thats not bad for a team that didn't exist 8 months ago. We need more depth for next year and we can be back stronger. Frank needs another year, another draft and maybe a few more Huckerby's in Europe. We will get there...

For now........It was an honor being nominated.