Crew clinches playoff berth!

This is the best news of the week, now I can look forward to my first playoff game.

 

We are truly MASSIVE!!

 

[youtube]mZ2iyFmywPE[/youtube]

With special guest Don Garber playing the part of Ren.

 

2 more steps for the regular season:

1) Clinch #1 in the East
2) Clinch the SS.

The NE game is MASSIVE!

 

How much will the duckets be?

 

Hey, I'm a firm believer in the philosophy of a ruling class, especially since I rule

 

Best news in a long ************ time.

 

Massive news for a Massive team. Beating New England this week would go a long way towards winning the East and the Supporter's Shield.

 

So why haven't they started billing season ticketholders for playoff tickets?

 

Probably cause the league has not yet come to grips with our ascension to massiveness and therefore is in denial about the whole thing. Don't believe me, see the ref for the LA game last night

 

We shall not
We shall not be moved
We shall not
We shall not be moved
Not by the Revs, the Fire or United
We shall not be moved

 

So, with five games left, who is eliminated from getting in front of us? by my calculations:
KC
TFC
Colorado
RSL
LA
SJ
FCD

And if we even get one more point from the next five games:
DC
Chivas

Is this right?

 

No. It isn't. But its close.

You may want to check out the SS thread, as that deals more with that question. I wasn't going to post this here, since I figured we had already clinched, but, here goes:

Here is where you've got it wrong:
1) SJ can get to 47 (29+18=47) and they own the tie-breaker on goal difference (2-0 win here, 3-2 loss there).
2) KC can also tie us at 47, though we have the tie-breaker. Though it is possible they could finish in front of us in a 3-way tie-breaker, but this is NOT possible for the final playoff spot (see below).
3) DC & CHV: actually, we need there to be any combination of 2 points gained by the Crew OR lost by CHV and DC. They can both max out at 48 (one point for us), and CHV owns the tie-breaker and DC could as well if they win the last game.

Here's the complete team by team breakdown (I put it in W-D-L format, as is proper).
1) Crew: 47/62
2) NE: 42/57 (can catch us, tie-break uncertain, 1-0-1, 4-1 Crew on goals)
3) HOU: 39/57 (can catch us, they own tie-breaker, 1-0-1, 2-1 on goals)
4) CHI: 38/56 (can catch us, tie-break uncertain, 1 game left: 0-1-0, goals 2-2)
5) NY: 35/50 (can catch us, tie break up for grabs, 1 game left: 1-0-1, goals 3-3)
6) CHV: 33/48 (can catch us, they own tie-breaker: 1-0-1 (W-D-L), 5-4 on goals)
7) DC: 33/48 (can catch us, tie-break uncertain, 1 game left: 1-0-0, 2-1 Crew on goals)
8) SJ: 29/47 (can tie us, they own tie-breaker, 1-0-1, 4-3 SJ on goals)
9) KC: 32/47 (can catch us, we own tie-breaker: 2-0-1 (W-D-L), 8-4 on goals)
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10) RSL: 31/46 (can't catch us)
11) COL: 31/46 (can't catch us)
12) FCD: 27/45 (can't catch us)
13) LA: 29/44 (can't catch us)
14) TFC: 27/42 (can't catch us)

Now, as pointed out earlier, the above just takes into consideration whether each individual team can catch us, but doesn't take into account the schedule factor: when two chasing teams play each other it is impossible for BOTH teams to take maximum points.

Kansas City and San Jose play each other, so there is no way both can get to 47, and we are in. KC also plays Chivas. KC could win out for 47 and tie us, but would prevent CHV and SJ from getting there by doing so. Thus, they could tie us for 7th or higher, but not 8th. Thus, any head scratching 3-way tie-breaker involving the Crew (at least in terms of qualifying for a spot) is moot right now. I didn't run 3 team tie-break scenarios, we can wait for that when its down to four teams (2 weeks max).

 

And since DC plays Chivas one of them will be eliminated from catching us. This effectively clinches the 8th playoff spot for the Crew!

 

Thanks for clearing that up for me. I guess I totally forgot tiebreakers, but then again, it's pretty unlikely we would have to use them in most cases.

 

I'm sure there isn’t so I won’t ask I’ll just state that it would be great if there were... It’d be nice if there were plans to distribute the playoff games to a wider audience (one of the local non-cable stations airing them would be great) too bad I’m sure it won’t happen.

 

Actually, I'm going to try and prove myself wrong. And I think I have, follow below for the mind-numbing and incredibly moot details, because it ain't going to happen. Still, I don't think we've officially clinched. Though we could by the end of the day (FCD/Chicago draw).


1) There is no way 8 teams can have more points than us, but, are we guaranteed 5th in the east? Only way I can see it is some bizarre 3-way or 4-way tie-breaker loss. Is it possible?

Yes it is. In short, its a 4 way tie where KC advances first, then Chicago, then NY, and we are in the cold.

Here's the scenario where it happens:

A) We lose out for 47 (losing to CHI, NY, DC, and NE in the process).

B) KC wins out for 47, beating NE twice (now 51 max), Chicago once (now 53 max), and SJ & CHV thus eliminating both Western teams from the WC (they can't get to 47). KC winning out ensures both Wild Cards come from the east (RSL, COL, LA, FCD already can't get to 47, and neither can SJ or CHV if they lose to KC).

C) DC wins out for 48. If DC drops any points, they can only max at 46 and we'd be no worse than 4th in the east. They beat NE in the process (NE max now 48). They also beat CHV in the process (CHV can't win WC) We cannot tie DC at 47.

D) NY finishes with 47 points. And owns the tie-break vs. us by virtue of their upcoming win (we lose out). They can do this by winning 3/4 vs TFC, COL, @RSL, @CHI) and by beating us for 47. They could lose to Chicago and still get there. Or win and win vs. 2/3 west clubs. However, if they lose to Chicago, it alters the tie-breakers and we'd get in.

E) Chicago. Gets at least 9 point to finish at 47, including beating us (they own head to head tie breaker). They can do it by beating us, LA, and TFC. And could go over with a point vs. NY or FCD. They have to lose the KC game for this to work. They also have to lose the NY game for the Crew to fail to make the playoffs.

F) NE. NE has to lose to DC and KC twice for this to work. They cannot end on 47 (5 pts) from their remaining two. Thus, they win both (RSL and Crew) and finish with 48.

I see four scenarios, with the West out of the WC running in each, and the Crew missing the playoffs in the first one:

1) 4 way tie at 47 (CLB, KC, NY, CHI) with NY winning @ Chicago. KC, CHI, NY advance.
2) 4 way tie at 47 (CLB, KC, NY, CHI) with NY losing @ Chicago. CHI, Crew, KC advance.
3) 3 way tie at 47 (CLB, KC, NY). Crew advance on 1st tie-breaker. Then KC.
4) 3 way tie at 47 (CLB, KC, CHI). Crew advance on 1st tie-breaker. Then KC.

Scenario #1: Nightmare (4 way tie at 47 with NY winning @ Chicago) = Crew OUT.
1. NE 48 pts (lose to KC twice and @ DC, beat RSL and CLB). Can't finish with 47.
2. DC 48 pts (win out). Cannot finish with 47.
3. KC 47 pts (win out). (Win 2 vs. NE and 1 vs. Chicago).
4. CHI 47 pts (lose to NYRB at home, lose @KC, win 3 of other 4 including vs. us.)
5. NY 47 pts (win @ CHI, win vs. us, win 2 of other three)
6. Crew 47 (lose out) = 6th in east = OUT.


Tie Breakers:
1. Points per game between the teams
2. Goal difference between the teams

NOTE: If two clubs remain tied after another club with the same number of points advances during any step, the tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format.

Under this scenario,
1) Columbus is 2-1-0 vs KC (7 pts); 1-0-2 vs. NY (3pts); 0-1-1 vs. CHI (1 pt) = 11 pts/8 games = 1.375 ppg.

2) Chicago is: 1-1-0 vs. CLB (4 pts); 0-1-2 vs. KC (1pt); and 2-0-1 vs. NY (6 pts) = 11 pts/8 games = 1.375 ppg.

3) Kansas City is: 0-1-2 vs. CLB (1 pt), 2-1-0 vs. CHI (7 pts); and 1-1-0 vs. NY (4 pts) = 12 pts/8 games = 1.5 ppg. They advance.

4) New York is: 0-1-1 vs. KC (1 pt); 2-0-1 (6 pts) vs. CLB; and 1-0-2 vs. CHI (3 pts) = 10 pts/8 games = 1.25 ppg.

KC advances on the points per game tiebreaker, then we are in a 3 way with NY and Chicago. So do points per game again and throw out the KC results (bad for us).

1) Columbus is: 1-0-2 vs. NY (3 pts) and 0-1-1 vs. CHI (1 pts) = 4 pts/5 games = .8 ppg.
2) Fire is: 1-1-0 vs. CLB (4 pts) and 2-0-1 vs. NY (6 pts) = 10 pts/5 games = 2.0 ppg.
3) NY is 2-0-1 vs. CLB (6 pts) and 1-0-2 vs. CHI (3 pts) = 9 pts/6 games = 1.5 ppg.

Chicago advances.

Crew and NY tied and NY wins the season series under this scenario (2-0-1).

A Fire/Dallas draw today makes this scenario impossible, as the Fire and KC both can't finish on 47 while Chicago draws Dallas and loses to NY, beats Columbus (we must lose out), and loses to KC (they must win out).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scenario #2 (4 way tie at 47, Chicago beats NY)
1. NE 48 pts (lose to KC twice and @ DC, beat RSL and CLB). Can't finish with 47.
2. DC 48 pts (win out). Cannot finish with 47.
3. CHI 47 pts (win vs. NYRB at home, lose @KC, win 2 of other 4 including vs. us)
4. Crew 47 (lose out) = 6th in east = OUT.
5. KC 47 pts (win out). (Win 2 vs. NE and 1 vs. Chicago).
6. NY 47 pts (lose @ CHI, win vs. us, win other 3)


This is a little rosier:
1) Crew: 11 pts/8 games = 1.375 ppg (as above).
2) KC: 12 pts/8 games = 1.5 ppg (as above).
3) Fire: 14 pts/8 games = 1.75 ppg. Now are perfect 3-0-0 vs. NY, + 4 pts vs. us 1 vs KC.
4) NY: 7 pts/8 games = .875 ppg. Now zip vs. CHI, 6 pts vs. Crew, and 1 vs. KC.

Chicago advances. Then we have a three way tie (KC, Crew, NY), where:

1) Crew = 2-1-0 vs. KC (7 pts) and 1-0-2 (4 pts) vs. NY = 10 pts/6 games = 1.67 ppg.
2) KC = 0-1-2 vs Crew (1 pts) and 1-1-0 vs. NY (4 pts) = 5 pts/5 games = 1 ppg
3) NY = 2-0-1 vs. Crew (6 pts) and 0-1-1 vs. KC (1 pt) = 7 pts/5 games = 1.4 ppg.

Crew advances. And KC would hold the tie-break vs. NY on head to head.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scenario #3: Three way tie with CLB, KC, NY (Crew advance 1st)

We just did this one above. Though Chicago could be above or below 47 points, If 48 or better, NY is out. If below, then Chicago is, obviously out.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scenario #4: Three way tie with CLB, KC, and CHI. Crew advance, then KC.

They only way this can matter is if NY is above 47 also. If they are, the Fire are out, if not, then NY is.

Crew: 7 pts vs. KC (2-1-0), and 1 pt vs CHI (0-1-1) = 8 pts/5 games = 1.6 ppg.
KC: 1 pt vs. Crew (0-1-2) and 7 pts vs. Chi (2-1-0) = 8 pts/6 games = 1.33 ppg.
Fire: 1 pt vs. KC (0-1-2) and 4 pts vs Crew (1-1-0) = 5 pts/5 games = 1 ppg.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To sum up, the wild scenario #1, 4 way tie on 47 points with the Crew, KC, NY, and Chicago with NY beating Chicago away in their remaining match is the only way we get eliminated, because KC advances first on ppg vs. the 4 teams. This hurts the Crew, as we own the tie-breaker with them, and have 7 points against them, so we lose out on the ppg tie breaker (with NY and CHI) and lose head to heads as well.

However, a draw today makes it impossible for Chicago to finish on 47 while also losing to KC, beating us, and losing to NY at home (all needed for the 4 way at 47 scenario with KC advancing first).

Here's the remaining games for Chicago at 38 points:
a) Dallas (draw) = 39
b) LA
c) @KC (must lose for KC to get to 47)
d) Crew (must win for us to lose out) = 42
e) @TFC
f) NY (must lose to create proper tie-breakers for Crew to be eliminated)

Thus, when one incorporates all the mandatory results for a 4 way tie at 47 with the Crew being eliminated (KC wins out, we lose out, NY wins @ Fire), and throw in a draw at Dallas, there is no way Chicago can get five points (42 = 5 = 47) from two games and create the necessary 4 way tie at 47 while losing to NY.


Ain't Sunday's grand?

 

Sorry, but I refuse to cheer for anything other than a Fire loss today.
I don't care whether it cliches anything for us or not.

 

Yep, I feel confident enough in the clinch to root for a Fire loss. Plus, I think the chances of them catching us for the Shield are a LOT higher than then that 4 way tie at 47 point, KC win out, Crew lose out, with NY winning @ Chicago scenario.

Then again, so is getting hit by lightning. For me, the non-clinch scenario is so remote, I'm not considering it in my rooting interests. It's all about the Shield at this point for me, and keeping us healthy.

Still, no official clinch yet.

Kind of strange that we clinch with a Fire draw, but not a win or a loss. Still, on the bright side, even with a draw, we'd still be eight points up on them. Just not nine.

 

Not today anyway.

 

While I want the Crew to go into the playoffs with winning confidence, I'll trade any Eastern Conference crap and the Supporter's Shield for the MLS Cup.

 

And the congregatrion said...."Amen!"

 

Congratulations on making the playoffs.

You guys have the most consistent team this season in the entire league, Not too high, not too low. The coach should be commended for doing a great job.

See you next season.