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The Hex Could Have Final Day Drama... Or Not
Tags concacaf, world cup qualifying
Honduras can qualify for its first world cup in 28 years
Matchdays 9 and 10 are upon us here in our little corner of the world. I’ve knocked about a good number of proverbs and clichés to sum up what we have seen so far in the previous 8 matchdays. I've landed on “it’s not how you start, but how you finish.”
It certainly applies to Costa Rica . At 12 points after 5 games, they were already applying for the visas at the South African embassy in San Jose . After 8 games, they still have 12 points, and they are staring at the very real possibility that their road to South Africa goes through Buenos Aires.
Honduras is the Texas Tech of the hex: a beast at home, but a lamb on the road. La bicolor has only managed to get one point away from the creature comforts of San Pedro Sula
The adage can be applied to the US and their last few efforts at home. Twice they have had to come from behind to avoid cardinal sin of dropping the full three at home.
For the first half of the hex, Mexico didn’t look at all like at team that would even make the playoff spot. That was before they ran off 4 games in row, including the 3-0 mudholing they left behind at the Saprissa.
And now the roller coaster ride is almost over.
Two teams can clinch spots Saturday night with wins. Two others still control their destiny, but they have to win on Saturday.
The one who seems to have it the easiest is Mexico. As long as they get to at least 18 points in their last two games vs. El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago, they’re in. One would expect that will happen this weekend at the Azteca vs. El Salvador, but the cuzcatlecos have proven beyond doubt that they are anything but regional doormats. They have been extremely difficult to beat on the road. And if it weren’t for two late equalizers at home, they would be very much in the conversation. Carlos de los Cobos has la selecta pointed in the right direction. They will be in the thick of the next hex for sure.
Honduras better hope they don’t have to go to the Cuzcatlan needing a win to advance. Even with El Salvador eliminated, the locals will want to end the hex on a high note, and if they can’t make the world cup, the next best thing would be to deny Honduras a spot. The Catrachos are currently in 3rd place with 13 points. They have been here before. Back in 2001, Honduras was in the golden zone in the final throes of the 2001 hex but lost, unbelievably, at home to T&T. A loss at the Azteca followed, and that was that. Honduras was out. They hope history won’t repeat itself this Saturday at San Pedro Sula. The last time the yanks came calling, Clint Mathis delivered a 2nd half wonder goal to win 2-1.
The USA can punch their ticket with a win in Honduras. And luckily for them, a loss doesn’t place the yanks in a terribly precarious position: they’ll just have to not lose against the Ticos at RFK. US fans shouldn’t be all that nervous. Or should they?
And what of Costa Rica? The team that was on top after the first legs hasn’t won since, has given up 8 goals without scoring one, and has tried to pick up the pieces with a new coach. Can they stop the hemorrhaging against T&T? Will they pull the shocker in DC? Or will they be scoreboard watching the southern hemisphere to see who they get?
Predictions:
Mexico gets the win at the Azteca, but it will be much, much, tougher than expected. They go on to beat T&T and to take 1st place in the Hex.
The US loses to Honduras, but beats the Ticos, which is great news to the Catrachos because they falter in San Salvador.
And Concacaf sends by far its strongest trio ever to the world cup.
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And Concacaf sends by far its strongest trio ever to the world cup.
MEH .... everyone is saying this. It reads like a lack of historical perspective. The trio in 2002 was very strong. US moved on out of group stage. Mexico won its group. And CRC, in a group with Turkey and Brazil, was eliminated only due to goal differential. And as for the knockouts, if US and Mexico weren't matched up, we could have realistically had 2 teams in the quarterfinals. This cycle's trio will still be behind that trio, IMHO.
Which is a point reasonable people can argue. But for you to say that the 2010 trio will be "BY FAR" the strongest -- I think that is putting the cart way before the horse.Posted 06 Oct 2009 at 10:34 PM by Asprilla9 
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I can see what you mean as far as calling them "the best" or "strongest by far," thoughI wouldn't argue against calling them the most purely talented trio, though. Mexico and the USA are actually alike in one respect, in that both teams are rich in young (and often unpredictable) talent, which has at times gotten them into more trouble than they should've had on paper. Honduras (though they've found that picking up the hard points in the Hex is even harder than advertised) at their best look like a mid-table CONMEBOL squad, certainly the best team Central America has produced at very least since the 2002 Ticos. Whether or not they're greater remains to be seen. If David Suazo can finally shake the injury bug in time for next summer...Quote:Originally Posted by Asprilla9
And Concacaf sends by far its strongest trio ever to the world cup.
MEH .... everyone is saying this. It reads like a lack of historical perspective. The trio in 2002 was very strong. US moved on out of group stage. Mexico won its group. And CRC, in a group with Turkey and Brazil, was eliminated only due to goal differential. And as for the knockouts, if US and Mexico weren't matched up, we could have realistically had 2 teams in the quarterfinals. This cycle's trio will still be behind that trio, IMHO.
Which is a point reasonable people can argue. But for you to say that the 2010 trio will be "BY FAR" the strongest -- I think that is putting the cart way before the horse.Posted 06 Oct 2009 at 10:46 PM by Marko72 
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HON ... just about in with a win
It's worth mentioning that a HON win on Saturday essentially books their ticket to South Africa. They'd just have to avoid getting slaughtered in El Salvador while Costa Rica edges the US after having beaten T&T. The US would be at least three goals worse in GD than HON after a HON win Saturday and there's no way CRC is going to make up the current 10-goal spread in two matchdays.
The late ES winner against CRC didn't really help the US that much, but it was a HUGE break for Honduras, as now a US-CRC draw can't push both teams past HON. Essentially, HON would have to avoid like a 4-0 loss at ES to advance, and that's only if CRC beats the US by a goal.Posted 06 Oct 2009 at 11:32 PM by Nermalthecat
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HON ... just about in with a win
...which is not going to happen. CR is not beating the US in the US....sorry , just not gonna happenQuote:Originally Posted by Nermalthecat
It's worth mentioning that a HON win on Saturday essentially books their ticket to South Africa. They'd just have to avoid getting slaughtered in El Salvador while Costa Rica edges the US after having beaten T&T. The US would be at least three goals worse in GD than HON after a HON win Saturday and there's no way CRC is going to make up the current 10-goal spread in two matchdays.
The late ES winner against CRC didn't really help the US that much, but it was a HUGE break for Honduras, as now a US-CRC draw can't push both teams past HON. Essentially, HON would have to avoid like a 4-0 loss at ES to advance, and that's only if CRC beats the US by a goal.Posted 07 Oct 2009 at 12:56 AM by The Brando
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I am actually quite worried.
Posted 07 Oct 2009 at 04:50 AM by Anthony
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Or even worse, Quito. At least BA is at sea level.Quote:... they are staring at the very real possibility that their road to South Africa goes through Buenos Aires.Posted 07 Oct 2009 at 06:30 AM by LI Matt
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Ya, I'm worried myself. I have faith in the US squad... but sometimes you need more then that to win.Posted 07 Oct 2009 at 08:18 AM by karlomarx
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Phase 1 of the US self destruction in under way. Dempsey is out... Landon is in a slump and his hair is falling out faster than ever. US will fall to fourth and play against the S. AmericansPosted 07 Oct 2009 at 09:25 AM by SoDamnSmooth
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Odd that Honduras is playing all of their WCQs in San Pedro Sula, after playing everything else in the capital.Posted 07 Oct 2009 at 10:31 AM by Reignking
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Costa Rica has been terrible, especially on the road this Hex, but anytime you go into the last game where a loss sends you out is risky. Everyone here can certainly remember plenty of games where a team outshoots another 20-1, and manages to lose 1-0.
If Costa Rica ties T&T at home though, its basically over, even if the US loses. CR will not win by 4 goals at RFK.Posted 07 Oct 2009 at 10:46 AM by Celtigo
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