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High Drama in South America
Maradona has Argentina on the Verge of the Unthinkable
The grueling 18-game round robin CONMEBOL qualifiers are down to the last two match days. Only two teams, Brazil and Paraguay, have secured their pass to their pass to the finals. Two other teams, Peru and Bolivia, have been eliminated. That leaves 5 teams within 3 points of each other. You can bet that during the last two games, there will be a sizable increase in smoking, antacid ingestion, and nitroglycerin patch use – especially in Argentina.
What happened to the albiceleste? It wasn’t long ago that I thought Argentina would be prohibitive favorites to win the whole tournament. I am still not sure why Alfio Basile tendered his resignation after losing at Chile a year ago, as they were comfortably in the qualifying zone. A year and 6 matches later, the situation has gotten immensely worse, this time at the hands of one Diego Armando Maradona. The squad has lost 4 of their last six, including two humiliating setbacks: a 6-1 drubbing at Bolivia, and a 3-1 dud at home to Brazil. The disastrous results have dropped Argentina out of the golden zone and into the playoff spot. And if they want the direct qualification, Argentina need help. If they manage to win both of their fixtures (at home to Peru and across el Rio de la Plata in Montevideo), they will gain the automatic birth, provided that Ecuador do not win both of theirs. Anything less than six points, though, and its time to watch the scoreboard.
This nifty simulator will help you see who needs what
If Argentina does manage to squeeze in, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be duds in South Africa. Tim Vickery points out that Brazil had a similar struggle in 2002, only to win the whole thing. Coincidentally, Argentina was 12 points clear at the top of the qualifying table, yet did not survive past the first round in Japan.
One team that controls their own destiny is Uruguay. They are away to Ecuador, then home to the aforementioned Argentines. Uruguay has gotten ties in their last ventures to the Andean capital, and Ecuador needs the win as well. Nothing better than must win footie!! Even though 6 points will get the Ecuadorians through, they can back-door it with 4, as long as Argentina or Uruguay don’t get their full complement of points (then it’s playoff time).
Colombia needs all sorts of crazy combinations to make it through, as long as they get their full six points. Here’s one, if they win their full six points, and every other fixture ends in a draw, then they are in. But any dropped points will eliminate the cafeteros from contention.
The other longshot is Venezuela, but just the fact that they are still alive with two games to go is nothing short of a miracle. The perennial doormats of South America have put together a very respectable run, and if they somehow manage to beat Paraguay at home and then become the first team to defeat Brazil at home. Then they are playoff bound. And with the current run of their U20's in Egypt, the future has never been brighter for the Vino Tinto.
The last team, Chile, currently sits third and is virtually assured of at least the playoff -- even with two losses. One point is enough to get La Roja through. Even if they do lose twice, as long as either Argentina, Uruguay, or Ecuador draw once, they are through.
Unfortunately for us, the last matchday is not scheduled for simultaneous play, like it is in CONCACAF, so some of the drama might be muted somewhat. Let’s hope they make the switch.
Predictions: Chile and Argentina make it make through, with Uruguay heading to the playoff. Uruguay puts in Ecuador’s demise in motion with a shock win in Quito. Then, Chile’s Argentine manager, Marcelo Bielsa, does Argentina a solid by finishing them off. Argentina has no problem with Peru and then eeks out a late draw at the Centenario.
Next week: CONCACAF
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The problem with Argentina is the politics behind selections, something that a lot of Latin American suffer. Estaban Cambiasso, a starter for Inter, hasn't gotten a called-up since the loss at Chile. Gago has never impressed me with his clumsy tackles yet until recently he was regular in the starting eleven, from the beginning Maradonna and Riquelme never got along because of their egos now Argentina lacks a playmaker. Until recenetly Gonzalo Higuain never got a chance, dispite scoring 22 league goals for Real Madrid.
Argentina still has the talent to make it to the world cup and at least make it to the semis, but their gonna have to call up their best players and hope Maradonna can keep it together.Posted 30 Sep 2009 at 06:54 PM by silverlion 
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I dunno. I'd say it's at least somewhat tinkable.
(Spelling joke. Caption.)
I blame my editorPosted 30 Sep 2009 at 07:07 PM by Grumpy in LA
Updated 01 Oct 2009 at 10:28 AM by John Jagou -
1. Brazil
2. Paraguay
3. Chile
4. Argentina
5. Ecuador/Uruguay take your pick...Posted 30 Sep 2009 at 07:32 PM by posteador
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Against Brazil Maradona started 2 central defenders with a combined 2 caps, neither of whom have ever played in Europe. Everyone saw the set piece goals and lack of marking.
When they needed a goal against Paraguay he sent on Rolando Schiavi, a central defender who at 36 was making his national team debut. You couldn't make this up. Players he could have chosen instead include Diego Milito (over 20 goals in serie a last year) and licha lopez.
For all the debate and discussion about "guys not hungry enough because they have it so good at their European clubs" and egos and conflicts and all that garbage the truth is that the most basic corrections in team selection would have given Argentina 3 or possibly 4 points from the last two games.
I am a little encouraged with the list for the next two games and in my heart of hearts I think Argentina go through, but it is sad and embarassing to be in this position.Posted 30 Sep 2009 at 09:20 PM by AAMM
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"Despite the current meltdown, however, Argentina still control their own destiny. If they manage to win both of their fixtures (at home to Peru and across el Rio de la Plata in Montevideo), they will gain the automatic birth."
Is it not possible for Ecuador to win both games, with Chile winning away in Colombia? True, they would still be in control of their own destiny (playoff), but no automatic birth.
You are absolutely right. It's Ecuador that has things in their hands, not Argentina.Posted 30 Sep 2009 at 09:27 PM by Drewdown
Updated 30 Sep 2009 at 10:29 PM by John Jagou -
Saying that you can't understand why Alfio Basile resigned is a bit short-sighted... he resigned because his team was on a down-spiral, he couldn't get the team to play how he wanted and rivals were starting to figure out that it was actually quite easy to stop Argentina; play intelligent defense and counter-attack... Argentina had no tactical variants and relied utterly on the brilliance of it's players. (which is not enough in this day and age)
Quite frankly, Diego Maradona inherited a mess! And being as inexperienced as he is, he hasn't been able to pick up the pieces.
We Argentines need to learn something (as a nation)... the past can be learned from... but not relived. The hope is in the future.
Unfortunately Uruguay will not make it... although Argentina won't be the one to blame; they'll lose in the height of Quito.
1. Brazil
2. Paraguay
3. Chile
4. Argentina
5. Ecuador
Thanks for the insight. Could it be that Basile underestimated his opponents, thus believing that his superstars could just show up and walk away with the win?Posted 30 Sep 2009 at 10:36 PM by Esteban Sabbatasso
Updated 01 Oct 2009 at 10:27 AM by John Jagou -
holy crap, that simulator link you posted is the best thing to happen to the web since porn
Posted 01 Oct 2009 at 12:19 AM by 00Kevin
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so is bolivia gonna forfeit their games?...not that it matters really, just curious.Posted 01 Oct 2009 at 02:19 AM by El Buki 
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All that "nifty simulator" shows is that EVERY game remaining finishes in a tie. 10 games, 10 ties?Posted 01 Oct 2009 at 09:50 AM by Mississauga FC
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ummm... you have to type in the scores, then hit "simular"...Quote:Originally Posted by Mississauga FC
All that "nifty simulator" shows is that EVERY game remaining finishes in a tie. 10 games, 10 ties?Posted 01 Oct 2009 at 10:18 AM by xibalba89
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