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The Hex chart that matters.
Posted 09 Sep 2009 at 03:52 PM by Dan Loney
EDIT: Think of this as the numerical basis for Ed's post about tonight's games.
This chart would have been even simpler if Costa Rica hadn't swan-dove against Mexico. I think it was John Jagou who pointed out that Mexico tends to do very well in Ticostan, though, so it shouldn't have been a big surprise.
Nevertheless, the premise is still sort of sound. With three teams still likely to win out at home, that puts a premium on what happens in just two games out of ten - at El Salvador, and at Trinidad. Whoever gets the fewest points out of those games (or drops points at home, of course) gets to play the South American team.
So, here is The Chart as of this morning.
HONDURAS
at El Salvador: October
at Trinidad: 1
Total: 1
UNITED STATES
at El Salvador: 1
at Trinidad: tonight
Total: 1
MEXICO
at El Salvador: 0
at Trinidad: October
(road win v. Costa Rica): 3
Total: 3
COSTA RICA
at El Salvador: tonight
at Trinidad: 3
(home loss v. Mexico): -3
Total: 0
Mexico didn't turn around their qualifying hopes against the US - they turned it around against Costa Rica. Although, of course, had the United States deigned to take a single point in Mexico City, then not only would Mexico have deopped another two crucial points, but they probably wouldn't have had the confidence to take apart Costa Rica.
And if it wasn't for the Gold Cup debacle, Mexico probably would have ended up folding against the US. I should get over that 5-0 game at some point, but not yet.
So tonight are huge, huge games for the United States and Costa Rica. A win for the US, and, realistically, they can relax. Anything but a win for Costa Rica, and the United States can also probably relax. The nightmare scenarios for both is if either loses or ties while the other wins. Mexico and Honduras don't have anything better to do tonight than not get themselves hurt and carded.
All this goes out the window if there's a significant upset, but even if Honduras upsets Mexico - and geez, I guess it COULD happen, Honduras is pretty darn good - but I'm really not seeing it - that won't change the importance of tonight's games for Costa Rica and the United States.
"Yeah, but what if Honduras and El Salvador win in Mexico City and Costa Rica wins in Washington and" - nuh uh. Mexico isn't vulnerable anymore - in fact, I'm pretty happy right now they won't be our problem for another three and a half years, because they're going to be killing people for a while.
This chart would have been even simpler if Costa Rica hadn't swan-dove against Mexico. I think it was John Jagou who pointed out that Mexico tends to do very well in Ticostan, though, so it shouldn't have been a big surprise.
Nevertheless, the premise is still sort of sound. With three teams still likely to win out at home, that puts a premium on what happens in just two games out of ten - at El Salvador, and at Trinidad. Whoever gets the fewest points out of those games (or drops points at home, of course) gets to play the South American team.
So, here is The Chart as of this morning.
HONDURAS
at El Salvador: October
at Trinidad: 1
Total: 1
UNITED STATES
at El Salvador: 1
at Trinidad: tonight
Total: 1
MEXICO
at El Salvador: 0
at Trinidad: October
(road win v. Costa Rica): 3
Total: 3
COSTA RICA
at El Salvador: tonight
at Trinidad: 3
(home loss v. Mexico): -3
Total: 0
Mexico didn't turn around their qualifying hopes against the US - they turned it around against Costa Rica. Although, of course, had the United States deigned to take a single point in Mexico City, then not only would Mexico have deopped another two crucial points, but they probably wouldn't have had the confidence to take apart Costa Rica.
And if it wasn't for the Gold Cup debacle, Mexico probably would have ended up folding against the US. I should get over that 5-0 game at some point, but not yet.
So tonight are huge, huge games for the United States and Costa Rica. A win for the US, and, realistically, they can relax. Anything but a win for Costa Rica, and the United States can also probably relax. The nightmare scenarios for both is if either loses or ties while the other wins. Mexico and Honduras don't have anything better to do tonight than not get themselves hurt and carded.
All this goes out the window if there's a significant upset, but even if Honduras upsets Mexico - and geez, I guess it COULD happen, Honduras is pretty darn good - but I'm really not seeing it - that won't change the importance of tonight's games for Costa Rica and the United States.
"Yeah, but what if Honduras and El Salvador win in Mexico City and Costa Rica wins in Washington and" - nuh uh. Mexico isn't vulnerable anymore - in fact, I'm pretty happy right now they won't be our problem for another three and a half years, because they're going to be killing people for a while.
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While the logic is sound, I'm surprised by how blase everyone is about a potential "draw or go to Argentina" game against Costa Rica in October. Probably unavoidable, barring a Tico meltdown or a win in Honduras, but a tough final match, especially if the Ticos need to win to ensure their own qualification...Posted 09 Sep 2009 at 04:02 PM by Dave216J 
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I'm with you there.....this is the one BOb should have been asked about by Grant Wahl, not the Azteca one....BTW this just goes to show how well placed people's annoyance was over the measly point we got at San Salvador.....We should have gotten all 3, if not for the horrific start....the one point we got is better than none, but it obviously would have been better to play at a higher level ALL GAME LONG there to get all 3 and not rely so much on our calculators at this stage of the Hex,,,Quote:Originally Posted by Dan LoneyAnd if it wasn't for the Gold Cup debacle, Mexico probably would have ended up folding against the US. I should get over that 5-0 game at some point, but not yet...
Posted 09 Sep 2009 at 04:12 PM by purojogo
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Eh. The Hex is always tough when Honduras shows up in it. Honduras's final game in El Salvador isn't easier, and of course, you certainly don't want to be CR right now. Only Mexco is sitting pretty because of their big away win in Saprissa.
Posted 09 Sep 2009 at 04:14 PM by rtung
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Quote:Originally Posted by purojogo
I'm with you there.....this is the one BOb should have been asked about by Grant Wahl, not the Azteca one....BTW this just goes to show how well placed people's annoyance was over the measly point we got at San Salvador.....We should have gotten all 3, if not for the horrific start....the one point we got is better than none, but it obviously would have been better to play at a higher level ALL GAME LONG there to get all 3 and not rely so much on our calculators at this stage of the Hex,,,
I can't say I agree. Momentum, etc. tends to be overrated by fans.Posted 09 Sep 2009 at 04:15 PM by rtung
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Well, not really, because winning on the road in CONCACAF is always a challenge. It still isn't fair, even in retrospect, to whine about a point on the road.Quote:Originally Posted by purojogo
I'm with you there.....this is the one BOb should have been asked about by Grant Wahl, not the Azteca one....BTW this just goes to show how well placed people's annoyance was over the measly point we got at San Salvador.....We should have gotten all 3, if not for the horrific start....the one point we got is better than none, but it obviously would have been better to play at a higher level ALL GAME LONG there to get all 3 and not rely so much on our calculators at this stage of the Hex,,,
What's different this round is, basically, Honduras fielding its best team in a generation, plus Salvador punching above its weight. Before, Mexico and the US could rely on four or so really soft games, and could count on teams 3 and 4 bungling the occasional home game. Not this time.Posted 09 Sep 2009 at 04:18 PM by Dan Loney
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Except of course that nobody has won at El Salvador yet in the hex, and El Salvador has been better on the road than most of the other squads. They lost in Costa Rica, Honduras, US, and Mexico by only a goal...........and STILL people think they're easy pickings. El Salvador certainly did better in Mexico and Costa Rica than the US did. And they did a hell of a lot better in Honduras than Mexico or Costa Rica did.Quote:Originally Posted by purojogo
I'm with you there.....this is the one BOb should have been asked about by Grant Wahl, not the Azteca one....BTW this just goes to show how well placed people's annoyance was over the measly point we got at San Salvador.....We should have gotten all 3, if not for the horrific start....the one point we got is better than none, but it obviously would have been better to play at a higher level ALL GAME LONG there to get all 3 and not rely so much on our calculators at this stage of the Hex,,,
What people need to realize is that it very well could be that point we earned in El Salvador (thank you Frankie) that sends us to the World Cup.Posted 09 Sep 2009 at 04:19 PM by Clint Eastwood 
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This hex is a lot more similar to the 2002 hex, than the 2006 hex in that regard. Honduras failed to make the hex in 06.......leaving 3 chumps for Costa Rica, the US, and Mexico to feast on. The 06 hex was over before it started.Quote:Originally Posted by Dan Loney
Well, not really, because winning on the road in CONCACAF is always a challenge. It still isn't fair, even in retrospect, to whine about a point on the road.
What's different this round is, basically, Honduras fielding its best team in a generation, plus Salvador punching above its weight. Before, Mexico and the US could rely on four or so really soft games, and could count on teams 3 and 4 bungling the occasional home game. Not this time.
People forget that the 02 hex was decided by one game. Honduras lost to TT at home in the penultimate round............and finished only 3 points behind the US.Posted 09 Sep 2009 at 04:20 PM by Clint Eastwood
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The way i see the Hex teams ..BOTH El Salvador and T&T are below where the other 4 are, both from their quality top to bottom and where they are in the standings as well...Just the same way we now need -or at least expect- to beat T&T away to be somewhere safe in the top 3 -at least for the time being- after tonight ...we had the same mission, to at least play for those 3 points while visiting ES last time also..... Especially as we still seem so far away from accomplishing that in San JOse, Mexico City, or (hoping to change that next month) at San Pedro Sula (Tegucigalpa? My 6th grade geography's fuzzy memories tell me this is the capital's name)... HEnce the need to have at least shown better at San Salvador in order to have given ourselves a better chance at 3 points/// BUt our terrible 65-75 minutes to start the match then erased many of our chances there.... and i take issue with that, even as others look at the scoreboard and choose to give more value to the point gained.... I respect such opinions, i just don't fully share them....Quote:Originally Posted by rtung
I can't say I agree. Momentum, etc. tends to be overrated by fans.
Posted 09 Sep 2009 at 04:47 PM by purojogo
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Win vs TnT and it's over? NOT
Go to www.mediotiempo.com and click on the "simulador hexagonal" link. Play around with the results and you'll see that a win today in Trinidad does not make qualification inevitable for the US. A loss against Honduras and we would need A WIN against Costa Rica to qualify......
Tonight's game is big but it doesn't even seal the deal. The US needs 5 points from the final 3 games to qualify (play with the simulador to prove it to yourself).....
ScottPosted 09 Sep 2009 at 04:51 PM by stoconnor
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Thanks for that meditempo link, Scott.
That was an interesting simulator. I had a hard time, though, finding a way for us not to finish in the top three if we win tonight. Really the only way is if Costa Rica wins in El Salvador and at least draws us in DC. But who is piling up that kind of road record in the Hex?Posted 09 Sep 2009 at 05:09 PM by scott47a
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