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Liverpool won't win the Premier League in 09/10
LIVERPOOL
Manager: Rafa Benitez
Last season in the Premier League: 2nd, 86 points (25 wins, 11 draws, 2 defeats)
Summer moves
In: Glen Johnson (Portsmouth, £18m), Alberto Aquilani (AS Roma, £20m).
Out: Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid, £30m) Alvaro Arbeloa (Real Madrid, £3.5m), Sebastien Leto (Panathinaikos, £1.3m), Paul Anderson (Nottm Forest, £250,000), Sami Hyypia (Bayer Leverkusen, free), Jermaine Pennant (Espanyol, free), Jack Hobbs (Leicester City, free), Astrit Ajdarevic (Leicester City, free), Shane O'Connor (Ipswich, free), Ryan Flynn (Falkirk, loan), Dean Bouzanis (Wrexham, loan).
Verdict: This is Liverpool's time, at last. So they say. The likes of Alan Hansen and the Guardian newspaper's website, among others, have predicted that Liverpool will win the title in 09/10. It's a fashionable opinion, and after Man Utd's hat-trick of titles I understand why so many people are hoping for change. Liverpool's haul of 86 points last season might have been a league-winning total. They also scored more goals than any other team in 08/09. If only they could have converted a couple of those 11 draws into wins, a long-awaited 19th league title would have gone to Anfield.
Has Rafa Benitez finally realised that the secret to winning the Prem is not necessarily to defeat the big four but to beat – home and away – all of those pesky run-of-the-mill teams outside the top six? I think so. Liverpool started very well last season, for once, and it was only a dodgy spell in the winter, when Rafa's selections betrayed an overcautiousness, that cost them the title. He can't make that mistake again.
At the back, no real problems to speak of. Pepe Reina is one of the world's best keepers and he has a solid back four in front of him, superbly organised by Jamie Carragher. Except… Carragher had a bit of a shocker at White Hart Lane on Sunday. I know it's very early days, but some Liverpool fans are already wondering if it's time to test out a centre-back pairing of Martin Skrtel and Daniel Agger. That's kneejerk talk but I guess you could make a case that Carra's best days are now behind him. Glen Johnson is a very good signing – I doubt Alvaro Arbeloa would have been in a position to win the penalty that Johnson did at Spurs – and I have high hopes for the waspish Emiliano Insua.
In midfield, Benitez has to find the best way to fill the Xabi Alonso-shaped hole. Alberto Aquilani is an exciting player but he is no replacement for Alonso. Lucas is underrated by everyone in the world, it seems, but he should get plenty of game time this season and I think he'll prove a few people wrong. The Mascherano/Alonso/Gerrard axis was almost perfectly balanced though, and without the Spaniard's composure and superb passing, I doubt that Gerrard will enjoy quite as much freedom as he did last season, while Mascherano will feel more exposed. I think we all saw just how much Alonso will be missed on Sunday – Gerrard failed miserably to link up with Fernando Torres, partly because he wanted to drop deeper to help out Lucas and Mascherano, whereas last season the calming presence of Alonso allowed Gerrard to stay up the pitch. Quite why Benitez didn't pull out more stops to sign Gareth Barry – when he knew Alonso would leave – is a mystery.
Torres will score a lot of goals again but if he gets injured, Liverpool will really struggle. For a big club, Liverpool's options up front are shockingly thin. Andriy Voronin, David N'Gog? No thanks. Perhaps Ryan Babel will shine if he gets his chance as a striker; because as a winger, he stinks.
Liverpool will lose more than two games this season (yes, I get the benefit of some hindsight, but Spurs away is a very tough opening fixture, so let's not jump to conclusions), but if they can cut out those sloppy draws, there is a small chance that they can claim that 19th title. I don't see it.
Optimal starting XI (4-2-3-1 formation):
Pepe Reina
Glen Johnson, Martin Skrtel, Jamie Carragher, Emiliano Insua
Javier Mascherano, Lucas Leiva
Yossi Benayoun, Steven Gerrard, Dirk Kuyt
Fernando Torres
Prediction: 3rd. Liverpool's best chance to win the title under Benitez came last season.
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I'd love nothing more than to be proven wrong on this but Liverpool cannot afford an entire season for Lucas to learn the role the manager wants him to play. Unfortunately there is no choice and the team will be exposed by a young player who positionally seems always to be in the wrong place on the pitch consistently.Posted 17 Aug 2009 at 11:01 AM by california kop 
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Great post. There have been many articles predicting Liverpool's winning the Title this year, and I did not see it. After this weekend, I see it even less. Maybe the team needs to gel with the departures and additions to the squad, and it will look like an entirely different team. This team, however, will not win the title
Posted 17 Aug 2009 at 01:15 PM by lvanarsdall
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I damn near cried when I saw that they let Alonso go. He was sensational for them and his presence will definitely be missed.
Posted 18 Aug 2009 at 05:09 PM by Lefty1984
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Ollie since you "don't see it," and fail to give justification forr this, do me a favor and peer into your crystal ball. Will I win the lottery next year?
Saying "I don't see it" without defending your point of view isn't very convincing.
There's a pretty damn compelling case that Liverpool will be right back where they were last season. With Man City and Spurs playing well out of the gate, that's hopefully more points to share among the top 6. While Alonso will no doubt be missed, Liverpool also performed without him last season in arguably 2 of their most comprehensive wins of the season - 5-1 win at Newcastle and 4-1 win at Old Trafford. Masch/Lucas combined in that midfield both games.
With experience and more time playing together, provided that Aquaman is as good as advertised at Anfield, I think Liverpool are very capable of winning the league.Posted 02 Sep 2009 at 09:34 AM by RevsLiverpool
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