Winning Percentage, Goal Differential, and the Shootout

[ChrisE]

Originally posted by NoSix
The market I'm refering to is the stock market:

A Random Walk Down Wall Street (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0393315290/o/qid%3D927949322/sr%3D2-2/104-7189669-0825564)

You could also probably find an earlier version of this book at your local library.

Those quotes on market were yours. I'm vaguely familiar with the idea that the stock market is highly efficient (and certainly familiar with the term 'market'; however, I don't see what that has to do with MLS.

What I don't understand is why 'we might as well be flipping coins as deciding the results on the pitch.' I mean, it's not like results for individual games, or for individual seasons even, are wholly unrelated to previous year's results.

?

[NoSix]

Originally posted by ChrisE
Those quotes on market were yours. I'm vaguely familiar with the idea that the stock market is highly efficient (and certainly familiar with the term 'market'; however, I don't see what that has to do with MLS.

What I don't understand is why 'we might as well be flipping coins as deciding the results on the pitch.' I mean, it's not like results for individual games, or for individual seasons even, are wholly unrelated to previous year's results.

?

If the stock market were completely efficient, then it can be shown that changes in stock prices would follow a random walk (hence the title of the book), and monkies flipping coins would be as successful in picking stocks as seasoned analysts. In reality, even though markets are not completely efficient, study after study has shown the performance of seasoned analysts to be no better than chance in the long run - and to demonstrate a strong tendency to revert to the mean.

Again, I'm making a joke and you are taking me seriously. I really need to remember to add one of these guys: ;)