Hex Analysis & Preview - Matchday 1 [R]

[Bluecat82]

So, after Matchday 1, we look like this:

CRC - 3 pts., GD +2
USA - 3 pts., GD +2
TNT - 1 pt., GD 0
ESV - 1 pt., GD 0
MEX - 0 pts., GD -2
HON - 0 pts., GD -2


And, back by popular demand for this cycle, Bluecat's All-Important Breakthrough Points (pat. pend.) - road points won less home points lost.

TNT - +1
CRC - 0
USA - 0
MEX - 0
HON - 0
ESV - -2

In other words, results pretty much holding to form with USA-MEX and CRC-HON, but TNT squandering a huge opportunity by blowing a two goal lead late on the road at ESV.

Schedule for Matchdays 2 & 3 (28 March & 1 April)

28 March:

TNT-HON
MEX-CRC
ESV-USA

1 April

USA-TNT
HON-MEX
CRC-ESV


The USA did what it needed to do at home, setting up a great opportunity to take control of their qualification with two very winnable games. El Salvador's comeback may have been the best thing (other than Dos a Cero, of course) to happen to the US, because it serves to remind them that any team in this group won't be a pushover when you travel.

Mexico has issues right now, though at first glance you think they wouldn't. Yes, the result in Columbus was expected, and, yes, now they have a chance to right the ship at Fortress Azteca. Problem is, the team coming into Mexico is the one team who's managed to take three points away from them in a home match. El Tri recieves no scheduling breaks by traveling to Honduras, where their last outing was pretty much a disaster, losing both the match and two players to red cards. Honduran fans will be smelling blood in the water.

3 points after three matches isn't all that inconcievable for El Tri, and will probably put Sven on the first plane to Portsmouth. Anything less than that, and he might not be travelling alone.

Mexico's misfortunes turns into a golden opportunity for Costa Rica, if they can even squeeze one point out of Match #2 - a subsequent home date with a possibly reeling El Salvador could see the Ticos with 7 points and breathing room (with the USA coming to San Jose early in June).

No time for Honduras to push the panic button...they should expect at least 4 points out of the long weekend, if they can steal a point in Port-of-Spain...good enough for the #3 spot and avoiding the possible trip to Montevideo, Bogota, or Quito (if current form holds).

An opportunity wasted for Trinidad and Tobago, blowing a 2 goal road lead late and losing Dwight Yorke in the process for the Honduras match, as those were 2 points T&T could ill afford to toss away. Honduras becomes a must-win before the quick trip to Nashville to face that rarest of American sides (as far as CONCACAF is concerned, anyway)...one that's out for revenge.

It's desparation time for El Salvador...2 precious home points already lost, with a visit from the Americans - who haven't had too much difficulty packing a point or three with them upon leaving San Salvador - preceding a trip into the Monster's Cave. It's entirely possible that El Salvador could be reduced to the spoiler's role after only three games.

Could we see this after three games???

USA 9
CRC 7
HON 4
TNT 2
MEX 1
ESV 1

[Barcasox]

So, after Matchday 1, we look like this:

CRC - 3 pts., GD +2
USA - 3 pts., GD +2
TNT - 1 pt., GD 0
ESV - 1 pt., GD 0
MEX - 0 pts., GD -2
HON - 0 pts., GD -2


And, back by popular demand for this cycle, Bluecat's All-Important Breakthrough Points (pat. pend.) - road points won less home points lost.

TNT - +1
CRC - 0
USA - 0
MEX - 0
HON - 0
ESV - -1

In other words, results pretty much holding to form with USA-MEX and CRC-HON, but TNT squandering a huge opportunity by blowing a two goal lead late on the road at ESV.

Schedule for Matchdays 2 & 3 (28 March & 1 April)

28 March:

TNT-HON
MEX-CRC
ESV-USA

1 April

USA-TNT
HON-MEX
CRC-ESV


The USA did what it needed to do at home, setting up a great opportunity to take control of their qualification with two very winnable games. El Salvador's comeback may have been the best thing (other than Dos a Cero, of course) to happen to the US, because it serves to remind them that any team in this group won't be a pushover when you travel.

Mexico has issues right now, though at first glance you think they wouldn't. Yes, the result in Columbus was expected, and, yes, now they have a chance to right the ship at Fortress Azteca. Problem is, the team coming into Mexico is the one team who's managed to take three points away from them in a home match. El Tri recieves no scheduling breaks by traveling to Honduras, where their last outing was pretty much a disaster, losing both the match and two players to red cards. Honduran fans will be smelling blood in the water.

3 points after three matches isn't all that inconcievable for El Tri, and will probably put Sven on the first plane to Portsmouth. Anything less than that, and he might not be travelling alone.

Mexico's misfortunes turns into a golden opportunity for Costa Rica, if they can even squeeze one point out of Match #2 - a subsequent home date with a possibly reeling El Salvador could see the Ticos with 7 points and breathing room (with the USA coming to San Jose early in June).

No time for Honduras to push the panic button...they should expect at least 4 points out of the long weekend, if they can steal a point in Port-of-Spain...good enough for the #3 spot and avoiding the possible trip to Montevideo, Bogota, or Quito (if current form holds).

An opportunity wasted for Trinidad and Tobago, blowing a 2 goal road lead late and losing Dwight Yorke in the process for the Honduras match, as those were 2 points T&T could ill afford to toss away. Honduras becomes a must-win before the quick trip to Nashville to face that rarest of American sides (as far as CONCACAF is concerned, anyway)...one that's out for revenge.

It's desparation time for El Salvador...2 precious home points already lost, with a visit from the Americans - who haven't had too much difficulty packing a point or three with them upon leaving San Salvador - preceding a trip into the Monster's Cave. It's entirely possible that El Salvador could be reduced to the spoiler's role after only three games.

Could we see this after three games???

USA 9
CRC 7
HON 4
TNT 2
MEX 1
ESV 1

Mexico will be struggling along, but they will be ahead of Trinidad

[FirstStar]

Good thread-- good analysis (everyone owes rep here).

This was a great start for the USA. As history shows, once you cross 15 points you are pretty much guaranteed a spot in the top four, and probably in the top three (18 pretty much guarantees top 3). Well, you can get 15 at home and the USA now has the hardest 3 of the 15 home points won. Now the schedule favors us with the weakest team in the Hex up as our first road date. 6 points from the next two games puts us half way to qualification.

So far so good.

[PhillyQuakesFan]

Excellent analysis.

I don't see this Costa Rica team winning at the Azteca. They could steal a point, but I wouldn't bet even on that. Even as bad as Mexico is playing right now, the only teams that can even challenge them at the Azteca are the US and maybe Honduras.

Day 1 pretty much shook out as I expected and as I think most people did, with the exception that I thought Honduras would steal a point in San Jose. Not a big deal though. My money's still on the Catrachos to take the 3rd automatic bid from CONCACAF.

[silverlion]

I like the analysis, good job!

Not only did we win, which was expected, but we completely shut down a Mexico team that wasn't as weak as people think. We really lack sharpness in the final third which could've been more damaging for Mexico but we got the job done. Now, Bob's mission is to score a 6-pointer against the two weakest team and include a youngster or two in the starting XI, After watching Inter's attack with Ibra and Adriano up top I wouldn't mind seeing Jozy and Cooper in a similiar formation.

Mexico vs CR
I don't give CR any chance of winning or getting a tie, Mexico is too good at the Azteca and will have more time to work with their European base players. Costa Rica is more talented than people think but their problem is that their players are still very young, although their main offensive threat Centeno is 34 will be suspended.

TnT vs Honduras
Honduras has few exceptional individuals (Suazo, Figueroa, Palacios) but they're very disorganized for a team of their talent. This game is a toss up, TnT can use their home advantage and inflict defeat on Honduras or Honduras can bounce back take 3 away precious points.

[camasterton]

So,...

...Could we see this after three games???

USA 9
CRC 7
HON 4
TNT 2
MEX 1
ESV 1
While it would have played the top three already, two of them away, this scenario will be crushing for Mexico. The three top rivals will be well ahead of them and yet all five opponents will battle to the end with the #3 or #4 spot seemingly within reach. Never mind the coaching and interal mess.

[OWN(yewu)ED]

great post. If Costa Rica can snatch a point in Mexico that is huge, its entirely within their capacity.

I tell you what im worried about eventually down the line not this game but the next; kenywne jones. T&T has i think the best forward in all of concacaf, Kenwyne is a damn menace, extraordinary quality. Our guys are going to have to be on their guard. Gooch is finally gonna be up a forward that pushes back, Kenwyne is a physical, quick guy much like jozy and our centerbacks will have fits against him. Hope we can contain him

[Bluecat82]

Mexico vs CR
I don't give CR any chance of winning or getting a tie, Mexico is too good at the Azteca and will have more time to work with their European base players. Costa Rica is more talented than people think but their problem is that their players are still very young, although their main offensive threat Centeno is 34 will be suspended.

True, Centeno is out for the Ticos, but Mexico will be missing Marquez, Salcido, and am I imstaken, or did Vela get a two match ban for his little temper tanturm in Honduras?

If I was Sven/FMF, I would schedule a friendly with Belize, Nicaragua, East Timor, Greenland...somebody(!) between now and March 28th that they could pound 8-0 and get their mojo back.


TnT vs Honduras
Honduras has few exceptional individuals (Suazo, Figueroa, Palacios) but they're very disorganized for a team of their talent. This game is a toss up, TnT can use their home advantage and inflict defeat on Honduras or Honduras can bounce back take 3 away precious points.

Like Mexico, T&T will be having missing player issues of their own against Honduras - not only will Dwight Yorke be out, but Chris Birchall and, worst of all, GK Clayton Ince will be watching this one from the press box, as both recieved their second yellows of qualifying against El Salvador (part of 5 yellows and a red the Soca Warriors received during the match...ouch). 25 year-old Marvin Phillip, last seen at Toyota Park giving up 3 to the US, would be the likely starter.

While we're on the subject of cards, Dempsey, Onyewu, Altidore, Hedjuk, and Clark all have one yellow so far for the US.

[Clint Eastwood]

Excellent analysis.

I don't see this Costa Rica team winning at the Azteca. They could steal a point, but I wouldn't bet even on that. Even as bad as Mexico is playing right now, the only teams that can even challenge them at the Azteca are the US and maybe Honduras.

Day 1 pretty much shook out as I expected and as I think most people did, with the exception that I thought Honduras would steal a point in San Jose. Not a big deal though. My money's still on the Catrachos to take the 3rd automatic bid from CONCACAF.

Unlike the US, Costa Rica has won at the Azteca. In fact, it was a WCQ during the last cycle.

http://www.fifa.com/classicfootball/news/newsid=887680.html

With the way this Mexico team is playing (they haven't won in 5 games), this isn't an automatic victory for them. If Costa Rica can get a draw it would be a big, big result for them. Then they'd have two of the toughest games out of the way with 4 points.

The US is going to have a great start with 9 points out of 9. Even 7 points out of 9 sets them up nicely for qualification.

What would also help the US out greatly is if TT and Honduras draw in the next match. Certainly possible since the game's in TT.

[Clint Eastwood]

True, Centeno is out for the Ticos, but Mexico will be missing Marquez, Salcido, and am I imstaken, or did Vela get a two match ban for his little temper tanturm in Honduras?

If I was Sven/FMF, I would schedule a friendly with Belize, Nicaragua, East Timor, Greenland...somebody(!) between now and March 28th that they could pound 8-0 and get their mojo back.



Ask and you shall receive, Mexico has a friendly scheduled against Bolivia on March 10th. In Colorado of course. Which makes sense when you think about it. Much less sense than playing the game at the Azteca, but what the hell..........

People always tell me Mexico has the advantage in the Azteca because they're used to the elevation there, blah, blah, blah. But they never play there any more, so how much of an advantage is it? All of their friendlies are in the US, and some of their qualifiers this cycle were at other stadia around Mexico.

[PhillyQuakesFan]

Unlike the US, Costa Rica has won at the Azteca. In fact, it was a WCQ during the last cycle.

http://www.fifa.com/classicfootball/news/newsid=887680.html

With the way this Mexico team is playing (they haven't won in 5 games), this isn't an automatic victory for them. If Costa Rica can get a draw it would be a big, big result for them. Then they'd have two of the toughest games out of the way with 4 points.

The US is going to have a great start with 9 points out of 9. Even 7 points out of 9 sets them up nicely for qualification.

What would also help the US out greatly is if TT and Honduras draw in the next match. Certainly possible since the game's in TT.

That was a much better CR team, though.

[Bluecat82]

Ask and you shall receive, Mexico has a friendly scheduled against Bolivia on March 10th. In Colorado of course. Which makes sense when you think about it. Much less sense than playing the game at the Azteca, but what the hell..........

People always tell me Mexico has the advantage in the Azteca because they're used to the elevation there, blah, blah, blah. But they never play there any more, so how much of an advantage is it? All of their friendlies are in the US, and some of their qualifiers this cycle were at other stadia around Mexico.

Brilliant...schedule one of the few teams in the world who are going to be affected by altitude even less than El Tri...:rolleyes:

Maybe they just want to feel what it's like to win on US soil... ;)

(sorry, it was there...)

[PhillyQuakesFan]

Ask and you shall receive, Mexico has a friendly scheduled against Bolivia on March 10th. In Colorado of course. Which makes sense when you think about it. Much less sense than playing the game at the Azteca, but what the hell..........

Because their fans in Mexico are smart enough to know a garbage matchup when they see one. They might fill half of Azteca for a friendly against Bolivia...versus banging out Invesco at $60/pop for the cheapest seats in the house. Even after the USSF gets their cut, the FMF still takes home a shitload more cash.

People always tell me Mexico has the advantage in the Azteca because they're used to the elevation there, blah, blah, blah. But they never play there any more, so how much of an advantage is it? All of their friendlies are in the US, and some of their qualifiers this cycle were at other stadia around Mexico.

Most of their MFL-based players play for clubs located either in Mexico City or Guadalajara (roughly the same altitude as Denver), though.

I do think their Azteca advantage will diminish somewhat now that they've got a lot more players playing in Europe, though. It's really only in the last few years that they've started to have more guys playing in Europe (about a third of their team now), before that it was basically an all-MFL squad aside from Marquez.

[camasterton]

Ask and you shall receive, Mexico has a friendly scheduled against Bolivia on March 10th. In Colorado of course. Which makes sense when you think about it. Much less sense than playing the game at the Azteca, but what the hell..........

People always tell me Mexico has the advantage in the Azteca because they're used to the elevation there, blah, blah, blah. But they never play there any more, so how much of an advantage is it? All of their friendlies are in the US, and some of their qualifiers this cycle were at other stadia around Mexico.
I think you might have missed the location of their scheduled friendly. I'm pretty sure most of Colorado is "at altitude". Practicing and then playing a match at altitude would be a wise way to prepare for and keep the, at altitude advantage of Azteca. Could that be the reason the friendly is scheduled there? Just a thought.

[Swazicar]

Unlike the US, Costa Rica has won at the Azteca. In fact, it was a WCQ during the last cycle.

http://www.fifa.com/classicfootball/news/newsid=887680.html


Per the article, it was two cycles ago:

17 June 2001, Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Mexico 1-2 Costa Rica

[Swazicar]

Could we see this after three games???

USA 9
CRC 7
HON 4
TNT 2
MEX 1
ESV 1

It's certainly possible. Although I'm sure Mexico's fans wouldn't be happy with this, Mexico would have three of six matches against their top opposition out of the way, including two on the road. They'll get points in the games that follow.

Conversely, the U.S. has a tough patch in the summer: at Costa Rica on June 3, then Honduras in Chicago on only two days' rest, then a single game at Mexico in August. If the U.S. is going to drop home points, it will be June 6 at Soldier Field, in my opinion. If they do, those three summer matches may look like Mexico's first three matches of the Hex.

[Craig P]

Unlike the US, Costa Rica has won at the Azteca. In fact, it was a WCQ during the last cycle.

http://www.fifa.com/classicfootball/news/newsid=887680.html
Cycle before last, wasn't it? That was partly how Mexico's qualification hopes went down to the wire in '01---they could have been knocked out by Honduras, who were a scary road team in that qualifying cycle.

[Craig P]

Conversely, the U.S. has a tough patch in the summer: at Costa Rica on June 3, then Honduras in Chicago on only two days' rest, then a single game at Mexico in August. If the U.S. is going to drop home points, it will be June 6 at Soldier Field, in my opinion. If they do, those three summer matches may look like Mexico's first three matches of the Hex.

Or it could look like the rough patch we hit in qualifying in summer '01... (only switched around)

[Adam Zebrowski]

costa rica won the hex for the 2002 wc finals..the win at azteca occurred then...

usa won the next hex....

i still think mexico home and depth edge will keep them in good shape...

they did lose at t&t last hea also, but they had germany clinched...

usa needs to win at ES, otherwise that's lost points, as i expect the big concacaf sides to win there...

i doubt CR can go into azteca, this group is a transitional change of players, and mexico ain't the sort of place for kids to have much success...

the original premise of win at home, draw on the road, is a good measurement of unballanced scheduling...

althought t&t should have won in el salvador...

when honduras comes to chicago, don't forget, they're on a short turnaround also, and usa depth means usa can go to some back-ups if needed..

[Swazicar]

when honduras comes to chicago, don't forget, they're on a short turnaround also, and usa depth means usa can go to some back-ups if needed..

Honduras is not on a short turn-around. The US-Costa Rica June 3 match was moved forward from June 10 to allow the U.S. more time in advance of the Confed. Cup.

3.6.2009 Costa Rica - USA 20:00 San Jose, CRC
6.6.2009 Trinidad & Tobago - Costa Rica TBD TBD, TRI
6.6.2009 El Salvador - Mexico TBD TBD, SLV
6.6.2009 USA - Honduras 19:00 Chicago, Illinois USA
10.6.2009 Mexico - Trinidad & Tobago TBD TBD, MEX
10.6.2009 Honduras - El Salvador TBD TBD, HON

http://www.concacaf.com/competitions/worldcupQF/index.aspx?id=233