Superdraft Thread

[swedcrip34]

Sure. I have a big ~2 MB excel file with everything that I can break down into smaller files as things become more finalized. I already have this info in a csv file that will open in excel. I have a hotmail address using my nick without the #'s.

[swedcrip34]

Kenn - If you're willing to host some of my info, let me know. I think I'm on the verge of actually compiling some useful stuff. MLSNET has a dearth of news archives and doesn't seem to track transactions well. Some of the current roster listings (though mostly updated) still seem suspect.

Here I'll throw in all my current questions: I don't think Jewsbury is DEV anymore. Gilberto, Dorman, and Stephenson are likely "roster protected TI's" whatever that means. Nunez is roster protected. What status do Baumstark and Terris have? Some of the DISC listings seem suspect/murky/incomplete. When do players stop counting as DISC's. Some players are questinably SI vs GC. Do Oughton and Nelsen now have GC? Do promoted DEV's like Perkins not count as DISC's. Do loan players not count as DISC's (Perkins). MET don't announce transactions! - Addo - ?waived, LeBlanc - ?waived/left_squad, Nugent ?retired, ?was DEV early this season, ?Parke DEV then full roster or always senior roster, ?Stammler always DEV. OK - lock me up now.

[kenntomasch]

Always. Send it to s o c c e r i n f o @ k e n n . c o m

[numerista]

Just a couple of things on swedcrip's questions ...

1. The Sports Network has a March 11 story saying that Jewsbury had signed a development deal. However, I'm pretty sure that he was promoted to the full roster before the start of the season.

2. I believe that Terris and Baumstark are under league-owned contracts. In the salary list leaked in January, Baumstark is labeled as "Pool."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/soccer/01/06/mls.salaries.sa/

3. Stammler was injured in pre-season before he had made any agreement. So it might be most accurate to say "unsigned then development."

[swedcrip34]

Just a couple of things on swedcrip's questions ...

1. The Sports Network has a March 11 story saying that Jewsbury had signed a development deal. However, I'm pretty sure that he was promoted to the full roster before the start of the season.

2. I believe that Terris and Baumstark are under league-owned contracts. In the salary list leaked in January, Baumstark is labeled as "Pool."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/soccer/01/06/mls.salaries.sa/

3. Stammler was injured in pre-season before he had made any agreement. So it might be most accurate to say "unsigned then development."

I'm in total agreement on points 1 and 2. Though they seem "unannounced" in that mlsnet lists Jewsbury as DEV and Stephenson as TI (not TI/DEV). Terris is serving the pool GK role, though I've seen nothing official (how did Peter Billmeyer join DAL - what method?, unless he is a pool GK too - maybe hardship exception/replacement player.

3. MET never announced siging Stammler so you are probably right. He was showing up on the rosteres but so did some others. Most teams though had signed their DEV's before the season started or had them removed from the roster (Brillant NE, ?Dorman NE). DEV's just don't seem to merit official announcements from teams, though I guess paying the press office for the announcement is close to their monthly salary.

I have a pretty good handle on how all these moves are made, just lack official sources for some of them.

My biggest question outstanding is about DISC labeling and when it goes away since each team is limited 4. Thanks.

[numerista]

My biggest question outstanding is about DISC labeling and when it goes away since each team is limited 4. Thanks.

I wonder if this will just add to the confusion: "At present, MLS teams are permitted up to two (2) discovery picks each year."

http://www.mlsnet.com/MLS/news/mls_news.jsp?ymd=20040714&content_id=8259&vkey=news_mls&fext=.jsp

[swedcrip34]

I wonder if this will just add to the confusion: "At present, MLS teams are permitted up to two (2) discovery picks each year."

http://www.mlsnet.com/MLS/news/mls_news.jsp?ymd=20040714&content_id=8259&vkey=news_mls&fext=.jsp

I noticed that too. I guess Anrulis and others talking about 3 discoveries earlier this year were incorrect. By tracking how Colorado and I think MET trade for discovery slots this year I'm pretty sure it is limited to 2.

[swedcrip34]

Since the subject was brought up involving the thompson trade, I'll post a little about what I have on conditional draft picks here. Warning - still not cleaned up. I'll leave out the text from the press releases this that'll overwhelm the text limits (in Excel they neatly are hid in a little box).

I'll do it team-by-team, starting with Chicago.

2004
RcondPCHIY04toSJ becomes R2P10Y04 (Ibrahim, Sumed) by1/15/2004 CHI pick retained fulfilled? SJ
RcondPNEY04toNE becomes R3P8Y04 (Stephenson, Khari) by1/15/2004 CHI pick retained fulfilled? NE

Martinez, Rey Angel (Ángel) 6/11/04 CHI TI/DISC released trade COL
RcondPCOLY05toCHI(6/11/2004-MartinezReyTrade) becomes (***) 6/11/04 CHI pick acquired trade COL


2003
Nowak, Peter 1/3/03 CHI SNR/GC released trade NE
RcondPNEY04toNE becomes R3P8Y04 (Stephenson, Khari) 1/3/03 CHI pick acquired trade NE


Williams, Andy (Andrew) 3/27/03 CHI SI acquired trade MET
RcondPCHIY04toMET becomes (returned-6/25/2003-trade_for_Bartolomeu,Edgar) 3/27/03 CHI pick released trade MET

Bartolomeu, Edgar 6/25/03 CHI SI released trade MET
RcondPCHIY04toMET becomes (returned-6/25/2003-trade_for_Bartolomeu,Edgar) 6/25/03 CHI pick acquired trade MET

Faria, Rodrigo R2P01Y01 8/20/03 CHI SI released trade SJ
RcondPCHIY04toSJ becomes R2P10Y04 (Ibrahim, Sumed) 8/20/03 CHI pick acquired trade SJ

2002
Korol, Aleksey R1P05Y00 1/15/02 CHI SI acquired trade DAL
Saavedra, Miguel R6P07Y01P10 1/15/02 CHI p40 acquired trade DAL
R6P08Y02 becomes (Krupnik, Leio) 1/15/02 CHI pick released trade DAL
RcondPCHIYcond?toDAL (1/15/2002 trade) becomes guess R4P04Y03 (Tranchilla, Mike) - (note future condiration trades by 2002 draft day guessed cancelled may be a possibility) 1/15/02 CHI pick released trade DAL

2001
Beasley, Jamar P1Y98 4/10/01 CHI SNR acquired trade NE
RcondPCHI1Y02toNE (Beasley, Jamar trade 4/10/2001) becomes probably either R2P09Y02 (Fuller, Ian) or R5P09Y02 (Pass) - also Wynalda/Wolyniec trade 5/3/2001 for conditional pick 4/10/01 CHI pick released trade NE

Wynalda, Eric 5/31/01 CHI SNR acquired trade NE
Wolyniec, John R1P07Y99 5/31/01 CHI SNR released trade NE
RcondPNEY02toCHI becomes (???***?not_met_cond?) 5/31/01 CHI pick acquired trade NE
RcondPCHI2Y02toNE becomes probably either R2P09Y02 (Fuller, Ian) or R5P09Y02 (Pass) - also Beasley, Jamar trade 4/10/2001 for conditional pick 5/31/01 CHI pick_or_fut_consid released trade NE

2000
Okaroh, Francis 3/13/00 CHI SNR/naturalized/?SCU released trade MIA
R2PMIAY01toCHI becomes R2P04Y01 (Ching, Brian) 3/13/00 CHI pick acquired trade MIA
Rcond2PMIAY02toCHI (3/13/2000 Okaroh trade) becomes (retained***likely_condition_not_met?) 3/13/00 CHI pick acquired trade MIA

1999
R1PSJY00toCHI(cond-CHI_record_better_than_SJ) becomes R1P04Y00P3 (Bocanegra, Carolos);condition met 6/29/99 CHI pick acquired trade
S3PSJY00toCHI(cond-CHI_record_better_than_SJ) becomes R6P04Y00(converted_superdraft) Abukusumo, (Ubusuku);condition met 6/29/99 CHI pick acquired trade
R1PCHIY00toSJ(cond-CHI_record_better_than_SJ) becomes R1P08Y00 (Mulraine, Travis);condition met 6/29/99 CHI pick released trade
R2PSJY00toCHI(cond-SJ_record_better_than_CHI) becomes (retained_by_CHI-condition_not met;CHI drafted R3P08Y00 (Lavrinenko, Yuri)) 6/29/99 CHI pick released trade
Tinsley, Ryan S1P07Y97 6/29/99 CHI SNR released trade
***note(If_SJ_had_better_1999_record_swap_1st_rnd_and_thirdSJ->CHI_would_cancel_instead_R2CHI->SJ)
George, Sam S3P02Y97 8/2/99 CHI SNR acquired trade TB
Dougherty, Paul 8/2/99 CHI SNR/?naturalized/?DISC acquired trade TB
Rcond2PTBY2000or2001?toCHI (???8/2/99 trade of Kotschau,Lagos for George,Dougherty) becomes (probably) R2P08Y01(Robinson, Eddie (Edward)) 8/2/99 CHI pick acquired trade TB
Lagos, Manuel (Manny) 8/2/99 CHI SNR/?DISC released trade TB
Kotschau, Rich R1P02Y98 8/2/99 CHI SNR released trade TB

1998
RcondPCHIY99toDAL becomes R2P12Y99 (Warham, Darren) (confirm020299release) 3/18/98 CHI pick released trade DAL
Ibsen, Zak S3P06Y96 3/18/98 CHI SNR acquired trade DAL



I may be leaving some out. When this all gets more organized, I'll break down each year's draft. At that point it'll be easier to explain the conditional picks. Some teams I don't yet have all the boxes filled out but have place holders at the date of transaction. Can't post those for a while. Definitely have DC mostly done, probably half of the rest of the teams maybe.

[swedcrip34]

If this right now is helpful, let me know. Otherwise I'll wait until I clean it up and figure out how to post Excel info better. The links and quotes from press releases are probably more helpful to complete this analysis. Right now posting all the teams would take some time, so I'll hold off unless I get further requests. If anyone wants info for a certain team I can try sending an email of what I have.

[kenntomasch]

swed, I just haven't figured out yet how best to present the files you sent me, and I haven't had time to get deeply into it. I will, though. Thanks.

[numerista]

If this right now is helpful, let me know. Otherwise I'll wait until I clean it up and figure out how to post Excel info better.

Thanks for posting the info, but I'm afraid that I wasn't really able to parse it. at least not on a first pass. I'll be content to see the Excel stuff sometime later.

With nearly ten years of player movement history, we should really put our heads together and think what kinds of interesting things to pull out.

Cheers.

[swedcrip34]

If anyone wants my full 4 MB file, my email can probably handle sending it. Its a first draft for most teams, CHI & DC have a second draft finished and were double checked using LEXIS. The A-League callups have been the most challenging to keep track of. "future considerations" and "conditional draft picks" have given me some problems. I might be taking a break for a while to work on some NBA info. They're much more transparent and their salary cap rules give more structure and limitations on player movement. Got kind of burned out trying to make sense of MLS contracts! If anyone knows of some good official sources off of LEXIS or web.archive.org that I'm missing, the info would be much appreciated.

Private message me if anyone wants a look at the excel file.

[numerista]

With Alan Gordon joining the Galaxy soon, 9 of the bottom 16 draftees will be on MLS rosters ... and as recently as last year, some teams weren't even using these picks.

[ChrisE]

(chart at bottom)

Well, numerista was right, the 2004 class didn't live up to my lofty expectations, although they didn't do much worse than the classes of 2002 or 2003 rookie seasons, either. This year, we saw 44.2% of all available minutes played by players who have been drafted in one of the last 5 Superdrafts, up from, which is actually slightly down proportionally from last year.

The biggest improvement this year, as has happened every year, was the sophomore class of 2003, which saw a whole bunch of players getting more minutes, with Brian Carroll, Eddie Gaven, Matt Crawford, Jack Jewsbury, and Nate Jaqua seeing the biggest increases.

The slight improvement in the 2002 class was driven almost entirely by 3 developmental players - Marshall Leonard, Chris Leitch, and Davy Arnaud. The only players still on MLS rosters who aren't getting significant minutes from this draft are Jordan Stone, Craig Capano, and Dipsy Selolwane (plus an injured Chris Roner).

The 2001 class, with contracts coming up, has likely peaked. Presumably we'll see a few players (Ryan Nelsen? Ryan Suarez? Duncan Oughton?) looking overseas for a better contract. While there are a few players who might still fill in for these losses, Chris Carrieri, Mark Lisi, Eddie Robinson, Santino Quaranta, (Devin Barclay), this is probably it.

The 2000 class was hit hard by three departures - Carlos Bocanegra, Bobby Convey, and Chivas Martinez, and three injuries to Danny Califf, Rusty Pierce, and Adin Brown. Apart from that, several players had difficulty just keeping their starting jobs - Wes Hart, Stephen Armstrong, Eric Denton, Peter Vagenas, Nick Rimando, Orlando Perez, Ian Russell. With the only clear starters from this group being Nick Garcia, Sasha Victorine, Kerry Zavagnin, and John Wolyniec, I think we can expect more decline next year.





Percentage of total minutes played
Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Class 2000 9.4 10.8 11.4 10.5 6.8
2001 0.3 8.2 9.1 10.6 10.9
2002 0.0 0.0 6.0 8.4 9.3
2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 10.5
2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5

[kenntomasch]

Is it possible to look at guys who got more minutes because they improved, or who got more minutes because of thin rosters and national team duty and stuff like that? Might not be easy to do or worthwhile. I just figure there are some times when guys are pressed into service and it doesn't necessarily mean they've gotten better, it's just that MLS rosters are tissue-thin.

[ChrisE]

Is it possible to look at guys who got more minutes because they improved, or who got more minutes because of thin rosters and national team duty and stuff like that? Might not be easy to do or worthwhile. I just figure there are some times when guys are pressed into service and it doesn't necessarily mean they've gotten better, it's just that MLS rosters are tissue-thin.

Well, I can't think of a systematic way of doing it, unless you've got a suggestion. Someone could go through the lineups game-by-game, but unless you've got a strong prediction, it seems like a lot of work for no distinct reason.

Obviously why various players get minutes is the product of a bunch of factors - was Brian Carroll playing because he improved, or because his coach was willing to give him a chance? Henry Ring got a ton of minutes because Zach Thornton happened to leave. Stephen Herdsman got more minutes just by coming out of retirement. It seems very very rare to me that (without reserve teams) a player wins a spot simply be improvement - some other impetus is almost always needed.

I think the hope is that all of these random events balance out and we get a measure that's approximately equal to ability (plus environmental factors), but my point in doing this is really more to see how MLS is constituted (what parts, how they change, etc.) than to measure individual ability.

[numerista]

Great stuff, Chris ... back in post #10 of this thread, you made a more-or-less principled projection of what 2004 rookie minutes would look like by round. If you get the chance, I'd be very interested in see a comparison between projection and reality.

I also think it's worth resuscitating a point that you made earlier: the class of 2004 was heavily picked over in earlier years. Eight of its juniors (or was it nine?) were drafted in 2003, along with a sophomore (Brad Davis) in 2002 and Convey in 2000. IIRC, if Burciaga and Buddle had followed the college track, they might've been part of this class, too.

Because so many high-profile players left early, it may not be too surprising that the second and third rounds were a little short on depth. What is (pleasantly) surprising is how many diamonds were found in the rough.

[ChrisE]

Great stuff, Chris ... back in post #10 of this thread, you made a more-or-less principled projection of what 2004 rookie minutes would look like by round. If you get the chance, I'd be very interested in see a comparison between projection and reality.

I also think it's worth resuscitating a point that you made earlier: the class of 2004 was heavily picked over in earlier years. Eight of its juniors (or was it nine?) were drafted in 2003, along with a sophomore (Brad Davis) in 2002 and Convey in 2000. IIRC, if Burciaga and Buddle had followed the college track, they might've been part of this class, too.

Because so many high-profile players left early, it may not be too surprising that the second and third rounds were a little short on depth. What is (pleasantly) surprising is how many diamonds were found in the rough.

Line 1 - projected minutes; line 2- actual minutes; line 3 - projected minutes as a percentage of total projected; line 4- actual minutes as a percentage of total actual; line 5 - % difference


Proj. Actual % P. % A. Diff.
1 10903 9829 0.49 0.51 0.02
2 5542 2865 0.25 0.15 -0.10
3 3075 338 0.14 0.02 -0.12
4 1452 2592 0.07 0.13 0.07
5 834 547 0.04 0.03 -0.01
6 466 3197 0.02 0.17 0.14
Tot 22272 19368 1.00 1.00 0.00


Basically, I was way off everywhere. The first round is probably the most consistent, because most of the players are going to stick, and therefore play, and we actually see some relatively large numbers. The last three rounds are crapshoots - but for Jeff Parke, the latter half would have looked a lot more reasonable, but there's nothing you can do.

As for the depth in the second and third rounds, I think you're underrating the overseas attrition effect we saw this year - last year, only one player in the first half of the draft, Dimelon Westfield, chose to look for a job overseas rather than play in MLS. This year, we saw three - Adolfo Gregorio, Jeremiah White, and Olivier Occean, at least one of which (Occean) would have likely played a good deal.

[numerista]

As for the depth in the second and third rounds, I think you're underrating the overseas attrition effect we saw this year - last year, only one player in the first half of the draft, Dimelon Westfield, chose to look for a job overseas rather than play in MLS. This year, we saw three - Adolfo Gregorio, Jeremiah White, and Olivier Occean, at least one of which (Occean) would have likely played a good deal.

That's possible, but if you look at the 2001 and 2002 drafts (e.g. post 27 of this thread :)), you won't see much difference. Remember also that teams generally have advance knowledge about who's looking overseas. (Occean is an exception, but as a foreign player is also more likely to play for peanuts in MLS.) If high picks are spent on White and Gregorio, this suggests that good stay-at-home alternatives were unavailable.

Incidentally, even without Parke, round 6 players played 788 minutes, which in absolute terms is far above the 466 expected.

[numerista]

Thought it might be interesting to track the impact of Project-40's and other early entries on future drafts ... for each upcoming year, I list the players who would've entered the draft that year if, instead of joining MLS, they had progressed naturally through college.

Relative to past drafts, the 2005 class is definitely quite heavily affected. Most years, there haven't been 11 P-40's coming into the league.

2005 (11)
D. Barclay
R. Clark
R. Cochrane
S. Cronin
C. Dempsey
J. Gardner
C. Goodson
N. Grabavoy
E. Johnson
S. Quaranta
M. Saavedra

2006 (4)
C. Capano
J. Mapp
C. Marshall
J. Stone

2007 (5)
A. Alvarez
E. Gaven
G. González
M. Magee
R. Nuñez

2008 (3)
F. Adu I
M. Bradley
D. Szetela