Developmental Players

[swedcrip34]

I mentioned Gaven cause I think when you compared him to Perez above it didn't apply to your calculation that only inclued cap players. Not saying it doesn't strengthen your case but that a better example would be a player who's minutes are included in your calculations. I think a few players like Borchers made such an impression as developmental players that maybe they did get paid more but I doubt it is much more than the minimum. I don't think it's public knowledge. Looking at the 2003 roster players (who were dev in 2002) salaries for 2004 you could probably show that most go on to make a certain amount. Borchers makes 24k this year http://www.socceramerica.com/article.asp?Art_ID=562134198

Foss makes 15k according to that list, so some dev players might get paid more. I've heard something about $850/mo is the min and some make more. Arnaud makes $25,200 which is 5% more that the 24k he probably made last year. It'll let us do more here if these lists come out each year! Leonard is at 24k this year. Jamil Walker too.

[numerista]

But, regardless of how much playing time he's getting, there are two distinct differences between this year and last year - 1. he's getting significantly better fan ratings on the metrofanatic website.

... the magic of lowered expectations. :)


As for players who have broken into teams this year - most of these guys - Dempsey, Gros, Cochrane, Mapp, Eskandarian, Crawford, Saragosa, Grabavoy - started getting significant playing time in the first third or so of the season.

Not totally sure where this idea is going ... that playing rotations gradually lose flexibility as the season progresses? I see that as a reasonable (if coach-dependent) idea, although my memory suggests that Mapp, Arnaud, Walker, and Crawford all made a late-season push for minutes last year.


What's 'player movement'? There's no free agency, and MLS coaches aren't just going to jettison a player because they assume they'll be able to find a better rookie.

Maybe not, but they might be more willing to part with an expensive or aging player if they already have a young, cheap option on board.

Bottom line: the off-season is when contracts and loans end. Some players retire, while others have major surgery and need time to recover. Transfer windows open, and teams re-work their position under the salary cap. I don't think it's a stretch to say that these circumstances sometimes create an opening for a guy who had been on the bench.

[ChrisE]

I mentioned Gaven cause I think when you compared him to Perez above it didn't apply to your calculation that only inclued cap players. Not saying it doesn't strengthen your case but that a better example would be a player who's minutes are included in your calculations.

Well, oops.


Foss makes 15k according to that list, so some dev players might get paid more. I've heard something about $850/mo is the min and some make more. Arnaud makes $25,200 which is 5% more that the 24k he probably made last year. It'll let us do more here if these lists come out each year! Leonard is at 24k this year. Jamil Walker too.

That's interesting - especially strange that Foss, who played the entire year with Syracuse, might be getting more than the average D.P. I know that Wagenfuhr and Maurin split a developmental and full slot 50/50 this year, but that's rather different.

Leonard, along with every single player of the class of 2001, is either a full rostered player now, or is out of the league. I think we can be pretty sure the same will be true next year of the class of 2002.

[numerista]

Two additional directions that might be of interest ...
1. Just how valuable are DP's?

Under conservative assumptions about the marginal utility of DP's, how many should there be?

2. How MLS cost-effective are DP's compared with P-40's?

One of the few things that survived my failed back-up was some data on P-40 players and their minutes played. (From memory, the first three P-40 classes were unlikely to have provided value, but things have improved.)

Swed, do you have historical data on P-40 base salaries, or the salary cap?

(While I'm writing, I've got to add ... Buddle-Cunningham just doesn't seem to work.)

[ChrisE]

... the magic of lowered expectations. :)


To be fair, I'm not sure Metro expectations for Kenny could have gotten any lower.


Not totally sure where this idea is going ... that playing rotations gradually lose flexibility as the season progresses? I see that as a reasonable (if coach-dependent) idea, although my memory suggests that Mapp, Arnaud, Walker, and Crawford all made a late-season push for minutes last year.


I know these guys are just examples, but the only guy who really bears that out is Davy Arnaud. The other three didn't see any more time in the second half of the season than in the first, although matt crawford had a small, very late season push. Here's a little chart:

I divided minutes played into total minutes, (approximate) second half of the season minutes, and final third minutes. The fourth and fifth columns are 2nd half minutes /1st half minutes and 3rd third minutes/ the other 2/3's.


Total2nd 1/2 1/3 2nd/1st 3rd/1+2
Arnaud, Davy 817 697 412 5.81 1.02
Mapp, Justin 1476 709 305 0.92 0.26
Crawford, Matt 750 392 366 1.09 0.95
Walker, Jamil 362 161 132 0.80 0.57


Players with the highest ratios:

Akwari, Nelson
Torres, Arturo
De Rosario, Dwayne
Leonard, Marshall
Gaven, Eddie
Behncke, Matt

That list is a mixed bag - Akwari, Torres, and Leonard played around 500 minutes (or less), De Rosario was injured, Behncke was playing for a team that had already given up.

I'm sure there's a better way to look at this data, but I can't come up with it.




Maybe not, but they might be more willing to part with an expensive or aging player if they already have a young, cheap option on board.

Bottom line: the off-season is when contracts and loans end. Some players retire, while others have major surgery and need time to recover. Transfer windows open, and teams re-work their position under the salary cap. I don't think it's a stretch to say that these circumstances sometimes create an opening for a guy who had been on the bench.

I'm not disagreeing with you on this point, and basically our disagreement is so insignificant, I don't really think it's worth worrying about. I think, probably, most of the increase we see in playing time that occurs from one season to the next is a product of - 1. increased, early season roster flexibility 2. player movement 3. coaching changes, with maybe, somewhere further down, offseason improvement/decline (for veterans) being factored in. I'm not sure if either of us disagree about that.

[swedcrip34]

Well, oops.



That's interesting - especially strange that Foss, who played the entire year with Syracuse, might be getting more than the average D.P. I know that Wagenfuhr and Maurin split a developmental and full slot 50/50 this year, but that's rather different.

Leonard, along with every single player of the class of 2001, is either a full rostered player now, or is out of the league. I think we can be pretty sure the same will be true next year of the class of 2002.

Leonard has been full roster all year and was starting at the beginning of the season. Where did you hear that about Wagenfuhr/Maurin? We can find out for sure from 3rddegree on the Dallas subforum.

GK's can be developmental up until 25 y/o or so. They seem to have a lot of separate rules. Of note, Foss started for Syracuse, A-League all year but I have no idea how much if anything MLS was paid for his services.

from the socceramerica link, many p40 salaries can be back calculated by reducing 5% for each year. It seems most p40s come in at 24k and get yearly 5% bumps for about 4 years at most usually (I'm guessing thats the length until they can become free agents like with Bocanegra). Some p40s seem to come in at 30k or so. This year the following make more than 24k for sure
Adu, Freddy $300,000 $500,000
Marshall, Chad $45,000 $68,000
Cochrane, Ryan $30,000 $45,000
Dempsey, Clint $30,000 $40,625

The biggest other p40 seems to be Countess at 100k. The returning p40s:
Countess, D.J. $100,000 $128,000
(Adu exception! since he was with Dallas last year)
Jaqua, Nate $31,500 $34,000
Capano, Craig $29,767.50 $32,267.50
Trembly, Seth $29,172 $30,422
Akwari, Nelson $25,200 $26,450
Barclay, Devin $75,000 $83,916.66
(wow)
Johnson, Ed $75,000 $86,250
(another Adu exception probably)
Thompson, Jason $28,350 $29,600
Stone, Jordan $26,460 $27,710
Eskandarian, Alecko $60,000 $80,500
(?re-signed)
Carroll, Brian $31,500 $34,000
Stokes, David $28,350 $30,850
Burciaga, Jose $27,783 $29,033
Gonzalez, Guillermo $55,000 $79,500
(take that per minute!)
Lewis, Ricky $31,500 $37,125
Gaven, Eddie $55,000 $78,000
(round number maybe means re-signed? though initial contract maybe "non-standard")
Alvarez, Arturo $28,350 $41,550
(quite a bonus/non-guaranteed difference)

Some p40s graduate but probably stay on the same contract (like Bocanegra) so looking at some of the grads pay shows some are likely unchanged except for 5% annual bumps:
Mapp, Justin $33,075 $35,575
(re-signed for more 3/22/2004, otherwise in 3rd year after signing 02 for 30k,probably could have been free transfer after next year)
Pause, Logan $30,450 $32,950
Clark, Ricardo $42,000 $52,625
Magee, Mike $25,200 $26,450
Beckerman, Kyle $30,561 $31,811

Downing & Bardales already waived when graduated, no salary listed cause out of MLS

[numerista]

I'm sure there's a better way to look at this data, but I can't come up with it.


Worked for me ... it should probably be noted, however, that Walker played more minutes (227) in the Quakes' four playoff games than in either half of the regular season.

Couple other notes...
-- Torres didn't join the Galaxy full-time until mid-summer, when he finished school.
-- After seeing your work, I remember that Mapp's playing time actually fell off as the season wore on, while Andy Williams established himself in the Fire midfield. This does, at least, show some line-up flexibility.
-- Cunningham drew a foul; Buddle nailed the free kick ... it's as close to a combination play as I've ever seen them come.

[ChrisE]

Year-end developmental player wrap-up:


Min Pts GS # Dev # Full
Class of 2002
2002 4568 6 51 16 0
2003 9022 31 90 8 5
2004 12148 47 134 0 8


Class of 2003
2003 4197 10 37 26 0
2004 8117 22 86 7 4



Class of 2004
2004 4628 15 50 16 0

Total
2002 4568 6 0 16 0
2003 13219 41 127 34 5
2004 24893 84 270 23 12



This year, former or current developmental players played 8.4% of the league's minutes, started 8.2% of available games, and scored 7.2% of goals, essentially doubling last year's numbers. DP graduates averaged slightly more minutes on the season than the mean MLS player.

The fact that each year has seen DP's playing minutes in the mid-4000's, although probably largely a coincidence, may indicate that the league may have a problem with dimishing returns as the number of players expand. After all, there's only room to give so many player's game time to develop - although reserve teams could dramatically change attitudes towards younger players, this clearly waits to be seen.

[ChrisE]

I'm afraid nobody reads these anymore, and the debates seem largely settled, but another year is in the books for MLS and developmental players, and not so surprisingly, the reserve league and expanded rosters had a pretty significant impact on the league.

Updated numbers, by class:

Class of 2002
Min Pts GS # Dev # Full
2002 4568 6 51 16 0
2003 9022 31 90 8 5
2004 12148 47 134 0 8
2005 11926 41 137 0 7


Class of 2003
Min Pts GS # Dev # Full
2003 4197 10 37 26 0
2004 8117 22 86 7 4
2005 8002 48 81 6 6


Class of 2004
Min Pts GS # Dev # Full
2004 4628 15 50 16 0
2005 5534 19 57 7 6


Class of 2005
Min Pts GS # Dev # Full
2005 19273 83 197 86 0

The 2005 class, pretty unsurprisingly, overwhelmed the previous classes, as guys like Chris Rolfe, Gonzalo Segares, Bobby Boswell, Esteban Arias, Aaron Pitchkolan, and Esteban Arias emerged to play significant roles on their teams, while another group - Abe Thompson, Knox Cameron, Eric Vasquez, Troy Roberts, et al. helped bolster a league whose depth has been much maligned.


That this year's crop made more of an impact than previous years' is not particularly surprising - there were more players in this year's class than in the previous three combined. What is surprising is that the average developmental player made about the same impact as in years past. Since this year's group of developmental players had 60 more players than the previous largest class, you would expect that the quality of the average developmental player would be reduced - however, the 2005 class averaged 224 minutes/player, remarkably close to a combined 231 minutes/player of the three previous classes.

I'm sure that the reserve league accounts for a good portion of this fact - many players - Dan Gargan, Jason Hernandez, Eric Vasquez - emerged late in the season, after significant experience in the reserve league.

However, it may also be the case that either there are more potential pros in the NCAA than commonly accepted, or that it's much harder to project pro potential than previously accepted. Many players that would not have been picked in 2004's 6 round draft made significant impacts, however - Abe Thompson, Eric Vasquez, Aaron Pitchkolan, Dan Gargan, Bobby Boswell, Kenny Cutler, and others (Wondolowski, Knowles, and Larentowicz, I'll prognosticate) look poised to play decent roles next year.

[numerista]

The 2005 class, pretty unsurprisingly, overwhelmed the previous classes, as guys like Chris Rolfe, Gonzalo Segares, Bobby Boswell, Esteban Arias, Aaron Pitchkolan, and Esteban Arias emerged to play significant roles on their teams, while another group - Abe Thompson, Knox Cameron, Eric Vasquez, Troy Roberts, et al. helped bolster a league whose depth has been much maligned.

It seems like a fair question to ask to what extent these players are really bolstering their teams, and to what extent they're merely inexpensive stopgaps.

On the plus side, this year Nat Borchers (dev. class of 2003) and Chris Rolfe ('05) became the first DPs to win a US cap. Following on their heels, Zach Wells ('04) will attend the US team's January camp, while Herculez Gomez ('03) is an alternate. Also, Ale Moreno ('02) has been called in more than once by Venezuela, though I don't know if he's ever actually appeared for them. In any case, this kind of higher-level recognition suggests that DPs are legitimate contributors.

All the same, not many ex-DPs have progressed to MLS' higher income ranks. Looking at the 2005 salary file, I think that Namoff ($78K, #91) was the best paid. Even line-up regulars like Leitch and Leonard seem unlikely to break into a higher income level.

By the way, if you get a chance to update which DPs are in which categories (which class, whether they were fully rostered), I'd be interested to see them.

[ChrisE]

It seems like a fair question to ask to what extent these players are really bolstering their teams, and to what extent they're merely inexpensive stopgaps.

While it's certainly not a glamourous thing to be arguing for, a plentiful supply of mediocre quality players is actually a pretty useful thing for the league. Having cheap replacements available pushes down the amount that the league has to pay average players with no real overseas prospects. [I don't see CJ Brown getting $106250 or Joe Franchino getting $83163 anymore.]


On the plus side, this year Nat Borchers (dev. class of 2003) and Chris Rolfe ('05) became the first DPs to win a US cap. Following on their heels, Zach Wells ('04) will attend the US team's January camp, while Herculez Gomez ('03) is an alternate. Also, Ale Moreno ('02) has been called in more than once by Venezuela, though I don't know if he's ever actually appeared for them. In any case, this kind of higher-level recognition suggests that DPs are legitimate contributors.

All the same, not many ex-DPs have progressed to MLS' higher income ranks. Looking at the 2005 salary file, I think that Namoff ($78K, #91) was the best paid. Even line-up regulars like Leitch and Leonard seem unlikely to break into a higher income level.

On my previous note, I think it may be unfair to value the developmental players by salary because 1. they've been in the league for a short amount of time and 2. the salary structure in general may be changing. I believe Davy Arnaud is making 6 figures, however.

[By the way, do you think you could send me the most recent salary info, I can't seem to find it.]


By the way, if you get a chance to update which DPs are in which categories (which class, whether they were fully rostered), I'd be interested to see them.

I'm not sure I understand what you're asking for here, numerista? Just a list of former and current developmental players by year and roster status?

[numerista]

While it's certainly not a glamourous thing to be arguing for, a plentiful supply of mediocre quality players is actually a pretty useful thing for the league. Having cheap replacements available pushes down the amount that the league has to pay average players with no real overseas prospects.

While that's true, it's still meaningful to ask whether these players are better described as "Developmental" or "Cut-Rate."

On my previous note, I think it may be unfair to value the developmental players by salary because 1. they've been in the league for a short amount of time and 2. the salary structure in general may be changing.

Fair point ... I was just looking for some way to say that even though quite a few of these guys are playing, it's sometimes debatable whether they're any good.

I believe Davy Arnaud is making 6 figures, however.

Here's a link to posted 2005 MLS salaries, claiming that Arnaud got $63,375. Hopefully, the format is ok for you.
http://www.bigapplesoccer.com/teams/metrostars2.php?article_id=3103

I'm not sure I understand what you're asking for here, numerista? Just a list of former and current developmental players by year and roster status?

Yeah, basically I want an easy way to know the names of the players we're discussing, something like post #2 in this thread.

[ChrisE]

While that's true, it's still meaningful to ask whether these players are better described as "Developmental" or "Cut-Rate."


Indeed, it is. However, I'm not really sure you can lump guys from 2002 in with guys from 2005 when making this kind of judgment. I don't think we saw much improvement from the 2002 guys (who are currently 25 and 26), so Chris Leitch, Marshall Leonard, and Matt Behncke were probably cut-rate players; Davy Arnaud, Alejandro Moreno, Bryan Namoff, less so.

But that kind of dichotomy doesn't exist for the younger guys - Abe Thompson may be around right now because he's cheap, but there's some good reason to think he'll be pretty good.



Here's a link to posted 2005 MLS salaries, claiming that Arnaud got $63,375. Hopefully, the format is ok for you.
http://www.bigapplesoccer.com/teams/metrostars2.php?article_id=3103


Thanks, I'll take a look at this.


Yeah, basically I want an easy way to know the names of the players we're discussing, something like post #2 in this thread.

Here's the list I'm currently working from, along with status in 2005 (D=developmental, F=full roster, blank=gone), minutes, points, and games started. I expect I've missed some players from 2005 at the least; things got much harder to track this year.


Pos 2005 Club Min. Pts GS
F Arnaud, Davy F Kansas City 2527 14 28
D Leitch, Chris F Metrostars 2344 1 26
F Moreno, Alejandro F San Jose 2167 20 24
D Leonard, Marshall F New England 1923 3 25
D Namoff, Bryan F D.C. United 1348 3 15
M Ochoa, Jesus F Chivas 1030 0 12
D Behncke, Matt F Salt Lake 587 0 7
M Bengard, Alex
D Brunt, Chris
M Frias, Tony
GK Goode, Taly
M Matteo, Jeff
F Nugent, Mike
D Roner, Chris
F Diop, Birahim
M Moore, Jeff


D Borchers, Nat F Colorado 2721 1 31
F Gomez, Herculez D Los Angeles 1508 24 16
M Torres, Arturo F Chivas 1367 4 15
M Jewsbury, Jack F Kansas City 1001 8 6
F Walker, Jamil D D.C. United 732 11 6
GK Foss, Byron F Colorado 481 0 5
D Salyer, Philip F Dallas 180 0 2
F Levesque, Roger D San Jose 12 0 0
D Arena, Kenny F D.C. United 0 0 0
M Rosenband, Andy D Chicago 0 0 0
GK Singer, Kyle D New England 0 0 0
GK Ueltschey, Michael D Metrostars 0 0 0
F Bagley, Chris
F Blake, Alex
M Friedland, Kevin
GK Geddes, Jorge
D Graham, Taylor
F Kante, Ibrahim
M Murriagui, Andres
M Perea, Trevor
M Piserchio, Michael
F Ritch, Michael
GK Saunders, Josh
D Thompson, Scot
M Traeger, Jake
M Walls, Nick


M Dorman, Andy F New England 1960 9 19
GK Wells, Zach F Metrostars 1530 0 17
M/F Cila, Jordan D Salt Lake 646 7 8
D Aloisi, Chris F San Jose 495 0 5
F Sutton, Jamal D Columbus 330 3 3
GK Pickens, Matt F Chicago 300 0 3
GK Perkins, Troy F D.C. United 180 0 2
F Detter, Justin D Kansas City 41 0 0
M Vercollone, Luke D New England 35 0 0
M Maurin, Ty D Dallas 17 0 0
M Dombrowski, Tighe D San Jose 0 0 0
M Erush, Michael D Chivas 0 0 0
GK Hesmer, Will F Kansas City 0 0 0
GK Baumstark, Clint
D Clanton, Denny
M Maliza, Johanes
M Pilarski, Ian
D Sullivan, Gary


D Boswell, Bobby D D.C. United 2344 7 26
F Rolfe, Chris D Chicago 1942 21 21
D Segares, Gonzalo D Chicago 1864 8 21
M Cutler, Kenny D Salt Lake 1699 0 19
M Pitchkolan, Aaron D Dallas 1442 7 15
D Arias, Esteban D Chivas 1141 2 14
D Roberts, Troy D Los Angeles 822 0 9
F Cameron, Knox D Columbus 804 9 9
M Vasquez, Eric D Columbus 703 4 8
F Thompson, Abe D Dallas 674 8 6
M Gargan, Dan D Colorado 512 2 5
GK Gaudette, Bill D Columbus 495 0 5
M Mediate, Domenic D Columbus 478 2 4
GK Nolly, Jay D Salt Lake 450 0 5
M Storey, Marcus D Columbus 382 1 3
D Stammler, Seth D Metrostars 361 1 3
D Knowles, Cameron D Salt Lake 346 0 3
D Roberts, Brian D Kansas City 338 1 3
M Chisoni, Mubarike D Los Angeles 308 0 1
D Kelly, Ryan D Columbus 296 0 3
GK Mahoney, David D Chicago 270 3 3
D Hernandez, Jason D Metrostars 268 0 3
M Kreamalmeyer, Luke D Salt Lake 249 1 2
M Nash, Julian D San Jose 223 3 1
M Novak, Kevin D Salt Lake 221 2 2
M Kuffour, Nana D D.C. United 181 2 2
F Johnson, Will D Chicago 162 2 1
F Latham, Ryan D New England 157 0 1
D Griffin, Leonard D Chicago 152 0 2
D Goldthwaite, Kevin D San Jose 147 1 2
F Noel, Fabrice D Colorado 125 2 0
D Lookingland, Michael D Salt Lake 90 0 1
D da Silva, Danilo D Metrostars 62 0 0
M Blanco, Milton D Chivas 43 0 0
F Nickell, Matt D D.C. United 31 0 0
F Gotsmanov, Sasha D Colorado 21 0 0
D Benditson, Ben D Los Angeles 21 0 0
M Munoz, Mike D Chivas 15 0 0
M Raybould, Ryan D Kansas City 11 0 0
M Kuykendall, Shawn D D.C. United 10 0 0
M Lopez, Rodrigo D Chivas 6 0 0
M Wondolowski, Chris D San Jose 5 0 0
M Lowery, Amir D Colorado 1 0 0
D Branan, Dustin D Kansas City 1 0 0
D Larentowicz, Jeff D New England 1 0 0
D Donaldson, Hollis D Chicago 0 0 0
D Montz, Jared D Chicago 0 0 0
M White, DeMetrius D Chicago 0 0 0
D Arbelaez, Victor D Chivas 0 0 0
GK Barragan, Javier D Chivas 0 0 0
GK Kalnasy, Shaun D Chivas 0 0 0
GK Cardenas, Michael D Colorado 0 0 0
GK Coundoul, Bouna D Colorado 0 0 0
M Elbaum, Josh D Colorado 0 0 0
D Keel, Stephen D Colorado 0 0 0
M Sagastume, Marcus D Colorado 0 0 0
M Gallardo, Luis D Columbus 0 0 0
M deRoux, Stephen D D.C. United 0 0 0
D Merritt, Tim D D.C. United 0 0 0
GK Terris, Andrew D D.C. United 0 0 0
GK Weber, Andrew D D.C. United 0 0 0
GK Gomez, Chris D Dallas 0 0 0
D Marshall, Winston D Dallas 0 0 0
D Pulido, John D Dallas 0 0 0
M Torres, Mario D Dallas 0 0 0
M Woods, Alex D Dallas 0 0 0
D Dobson, Daniel D Kansas City 0 0 0
GK Hutton, Martin D Kansas City 0 0 0
M Lascody, Doug D Kansas City 0 0 0
F McGinnis, Pat D Kansas City 0 0 0
M Minagawa-Webster, John D Kansas City 0 0 0
M Johnson, David D Los Angeles 0 0 0
D Nsien, Michael D Los Angeles 0 0 0
F Bailey, Ramon D Metrostars 0 0 0
M Corcaran, Chris D Metrostars 0 0 0
GK Kennedy, Daniel D Metrostars 0 0 0
F Holmes, Jamie D New England 0 0 0
M Romaneiro, Marcos D New England 0 0 0
GK Tomasso, T.J. D New England 0 0 0
M Wilson, Easton D New England 0 0 0
D Flores, Sergio D Salt Lake 0 0 0
GK Palmer, Noah D Salt Lake 0 0 0
GK Fulton, Robby D San Jose 0 0 0
M Lanes, Aaron D San Jose 0 0 0
F Ramirez, Orlando D San Jose 0 0 0
D Rodriguez, Brett D San Jose 0 0 0
D Twellman, James D San Jose 0 0 0