who will get promoted ?

[ranny fash]

To be quite frank, I'd rather see us stay down and flog our high earners and brings the kids like Kelly, Karacan and Pearce through the ranks, instead of enduring a dismal 25 point season in the premier. The novely wears off pretty quick, and it becomes like moving into a new upscale neighbourhood and finding all your new neighbours are a right bunch of wankers.

Ha ha nice analogy! I'd have thought Reading would have a half decent chance of staying up tho, with the team you have. How good are your youngsters?

I think if we went up at the end of next season it would probably precede a stunningly inept single season of premiership failure. Think Derby*. However, given maybe an extra season of consolidation and building of momentum, premiership survival would be far more likely.

Cardiff are in with a shout - they are in stunning form, and just beat us 2-0.

*ha ha ha

[RichardL]

Ha ha nice analogy! I'd have thought Reading would have a half decent chance of staying up tho, with the team you have. How good are your youngsters?

the team we have is weaker than the one that went down. That we are second says more about the quality of the championship then the strength of our team. Two or three signings could make a huge difference, but I think that unless you are good enough to go up with a points tally in the high 90s, you'll be relying on existing premiership teams having a nightmare to stay up. Mind you, if this season is anything to go by, then about half of the division is having a nightmare.

As for the kids, Jem Karacan, Alex Pearce, Julian Kelly and James Henry have all played in the first team this season without looking out of place. Watching teams without any senior players score 5 past Blue Square South teams on consecutive weekends pre-season was impressive. I certainly wouldn't want to see all eleven playing in the first team, but half of them could do a job in this division.


I think if we went up at the end of next season it would probably precede a stunningly inept single season of premiership failure. Think Derby*. However, given maybe an extra season of consolidation and building of momentum, premiership survival would be far more likely.

I think Derby needed rather more than an extra season of momentum and consolidation. Going up before the team is ready isn't really an option any more.

[glennaldo_sf]

btw... turning our attention from the bottom of the table to the top... anyone see the three teams in the relegation zone?

.... Charlton, Southampton + Watford!

Amazing... three teams who were in the premiership just a couple of seasons back (well I guess Watford not as established).... but it would be amazing if these three were to to down. How things change!

[ranny fash]

the team we have is weaker than the one that went down. That we are second says more about the quality of the championship then the strength of our team. Two or three signings could make a huge difference, but I think that unless you are good enough to go up with a points tally in the high 90s, you'll be relying on existing premiership teams having a nightmare to stay up. Mind you, if this season is anything to go by, then about half of the division is having a nightmare.

As for the kids, Jem Karacan, Alex Pearce, Julian Kelly and James Henry have all played in the first team this season without looking out of place. Watching teams without any senior players score 5 past Blue Square South teams on consecutive weekends pre-season was impressive. I certainly wouldn't want to see all eleven playing in the first team, but half of them could do a job in this division.


I think Derby needed rather more than an extra season of momentum and consolidation. Going up before the team is ready isn't really an option any more.

Agreed, you need to toughen up and get yourself ready for different types of test before you have a chance of surviving. However, if Hull stay up then it's encouraging! Are Reading ready for the top division again? I would doubt anyone except yourselves, Wolves, and Brum could possibly cope up there next season. Cardiff look good but I dunno...

Good to hear you have good youngsters coming through, like we do. I doubt we could put an 11 out in a league match though.

[ranny fash]

btw... turning our attention from the bottom of the table to the top... anyone see the three teams in the relegation zone?

.... Charlton, Southampton + Watford!

Amazing... three teams who were in the premiership just a couple of seasons back (well I guess Watford not as established).... but it would be amazing if these three were to to down. How things change!

Leeds are down there now, in recent seasons City, Shef Wed and Forest have all been down there as well, so the teams down there are geting more used to playing 'big' clubs in the league.

Charlton have suddenly hit form though, while some other teams just above them have really tanked (Watford, Soton, Norwich). It's almost totally chaotic and unpredidictable down there at the bottom of the Championship!
I am pretty sure we (Forest) will survive - we have a little more quality than the other teams around us, and a bit more spirit about the way we play.

[UShornet]

I wouldn't say Charlton have hit form, but Norwich and Plymouth are dropping like stones. Meanwhile my hornets are climbing the table and still have a game or two in hand on most clubs around them. The schedule is pretty easy for Watford down the stretch so I see them finishing above 18th.

Teams I think that will go down:
22nd - Norwich City
23rd - Charlton Athletic
24th - Southampton

Plymouth have a little bit too much quality in their side while I think Forest will survive, but barely. Southampton and Charlton are doomed I feel.

Those teams who are getting promoted are rather obvious at this point:

1. Birmingham
2. Reading
3 via playoffs - Wolves

Cardiff City could have a shout though.

[glennaldo_sf]

The problem is you can never say that it's 'pretty obvious' who will take that third place playoff. You can be one of the 3 best teams all season in the championship but if you don't take one of the top two spots it's down to a one off game playoff final where anything can happen (key players injured/suspended, dodgy ref decision, etc.)... that's if u even make the final. I think the top two will be two of Brum/Reading/Wolves with maybe Cardiff City making a challenge if they win their games in hand. But that third spot is anyone's guess. Hell, Doncaster Rovers could sneak into 6th place and win the playoffs as far as we know.

[olephill2]

The problem is you can never say that it's 'pretty obvious' who will take that third place playoff. You can be one of the 3 best teams all season in the championship but if you don't take one of the top two spots it's down to a one off game playoff final where anything can happen (key players injured/suspended, dodgy ref decision, etc.)... that's if u even make the final. I think the top two will be two of Brum/Reading/Wolves with maybe Cardiff City making a challenge if they win their games in hand. But that third spot is anyone's guess. Hell, Doncaster Rovers could sneak into 6th place and win the playoffs as far as we know.You're right...it really is a crapshoot in the promotion playoffs. The 3rd place regular season finisher has earned promotion in each of the last 3 years, but prior to that, as you can see below, there was some deviation:

Year - Promoted Team - Regular Season Finish
2007/08 - Hull City - 3rd place
2006/07 - Derby County - 3rd place
2005/06 - Watford - 3rd place
2004/05 - West Ham - 6th place
2003/04 - Crystal Palace - 6th place
2002/03 - Wolverhampton - 5th place
2001/02 - Birmingham - 5th place

[glennaldo_sf]

Interesting that the last 3 playoff winners have been 3rd placed teams - that's the way it should be I guess. It does happen though that a team that has been challenging for the top two this time of the year drops into the playoff zone and a team that is midtable hits a sudden burst of form, pips into the playoffs and beats the higher seeded team. With that said, I almost always root for the 3rd placed team to beat the 4th placed team in the playoff final.

[olephill2]

Interesting that the last 3 playoff winners have been 3rd placed teams - that's the way it should be I guess. It does happen though that a team that has been challenging for the top two this time of the year drops into the playoff zone and a team that is midtable hits a sudden burst of form, pips into the playoffs and beats the higher seeded team. With that said, I almost always root for the 3rd placed team to beat the 4th placed team in the playoff final.
Indeed. Last season, Watford stormed out to a 9-point lead in the league in November or December, then hit a woeful run of form to close out the season, finishing 6th and backing in to the playoffs on goal differential. A certain team by the name of Hull City, meanwhile, started the Championship a little slower and then picked things up, such that by the end of the season, they'd climbed to 3rd and had the momentum of a runaway freight train (they carried that momentum into the Premiership this season). Hull completely dismantled Watford in the playoff semifinals, then went on to win the final at Wembley.

It was a tale of two opposites. In the Championship, it definitely pays to peak later in the season than earlier, if you're looking to be in the 3rd-6th cluster of teams.

[RichardL]

Indeed. Last season, Watford stormed out to a 9-point lead in the league in November or December
this year all of the top 3 are doing that!

I would expect at least one of them to not even make the play-offs. Given how badly Reading are playing and Coppell's reluctance to change anything ever, it could well be us.

[Redevil7]

At the moment Wolves,Birmingham and Reading the teams who I think are going to get relegated are Norwich,Charlton and Southampton.

[Orlando Rays]

Reading won yesterday, keeping it in position to challenge for the auto-promotion slot. I have found these scenarios for the auto-promotion slot:

Birmingham City will be auto-promoted if:


They beat Reading, regardless of what Sheffield Utd. does
They draw Reading, and Sheffield Utd. does not beat Crystal Palace

Sheffield Utd. will be auto-promoted if


They beat Crystal Palace, and Reading draws or beats Birmingham City

Reading will be auto-promoted if


They beat Birmingham City, and Sheffield Utd. loses or draws Crystal Palace

If Reading wins, and Sheffield Utd. draws, it puts them in a draw with Birmingham City for points. Reading has the goal-differential advantage in that case.

As for relegation, Barnsley saves itself with a draw, or any negative result by Norwich City. A loss by Barnsley and a win by Norwich City would mean a points draw, giving Norwich City the goal-differential advantage.