PK Stuff

[beineke]

In other discussions, PK's have been coming up ... I figure they might as well have their own thread. For now, here's a bit of info ...

1999
PK Attempts: 45
PK Misses (not saved): 4
% Missed: 8.9

2000
PK Attempts: 72
PK Misses (not saved): 9
% Missed: 12.5

2001
PK Attempts: 54
PK Misses (not saved): 3
% Missed: 5.6

2002
PK Attempts: 51
PK Misses (not saved): 1
% Missed: 2.0

2003
PK Attempts: 60
PK Misses (not saved): 0 *
% Missed: 0.0 *

It's an encouraging trend that today's penalty-takers have been less likely to shank it. This also appears to explain why PK conversion percentages have risen.

* The numbers above include both regular season and playoff PK's. In the League Stats section on mlsnet.com, they began to break down PK numbers in 1999. From 99-02, they included some details about the cause of the PK, i.e. who drew the foul, who committed it. In 03, they abandoned some of that info ... let's hope they bring it back. All 2003 pk's were coded as "G" or "S," but I'm assuming that a missed PK would be coded "M," or some such thinig.

[beineke]

In the past five years, only 17 out of 272 penalty attempts were flat-out misses, 6.25%. Here's the breakdown on shooters after they've missed the net once, 1999-2003:
Diallo: 7-11, 1 miss
Valderrama: 2-5, 2 misses
Stoitchkov: 3-4
Mathis: 1-3
Kubik: 1-2, 1 miss
Cerritos: 1-1
Kovalenko: 1-1
J.Torres: 0-1
D.Gutierrez: 0-1
Wolff: 0-1
Fabbro, Limpar, H.Gutierrez: 0-0

Combined, they've converted only 16-30 (53%). They also had 4 additional misses, 13.3%, which is more than double what you'd expect. Note to MLS coaches: if a guy has missed the net, he's probably going to miss again.

[NoSix]

Originally posted by beineke
Combined, they've converted only 16-30 (53%). They also had 4 additional misses, 13.3%, which is more than double what you'd expect. Note to MLS coaches: if a guy has missed the net, he's probably going to miss again.

Pretty convincing evidence that the first prerequisite of a successful penalty kick taker is mental toughness. Thanks for posting.

[numerista]

In another thread, Stan brought up the question of stats that are indicative of the level of play. I think this one falls into that category ... it's analogous to free throw percentages being higher in the NBA than college, and higher in college than high school. David Beckham aside, professional PK takers should generally force a save.

This year's only miss was a shot by Twellman that went off the post ... Perkins might well have stopped it, anyway.


Year Att. Miss Pct.
1999 45 4 8.9
2000 72 9 12.5
2001 54 3 5.6
2002 51 1 2.0
2003 60 0 0.0
2004 53 1 1.9

[scaryice]

Maybe part of the reason they rarely miss is that few MLS players can hit a powerful shot accurately, so they instead go for placement.

[scaryice]

I would love to see an analysis of whether or not the amount of time a player takes to shoot the penalty has an effect on scoring it. I would imagine the players who just take it without thinking score at a higher rate. I might go through the videos on mlsnet and figure this out.

[Stan Collins]

Maybe part of the reason they rarely miss is that few MLS players can hit a powerful shot accurately, so they instead go for placement.
That's a static analysis of dynamic data. They didn't just decide at some point they had no power, so it's far-fetched to think the decline in misses over time is due to a lack of it.

Of course, this only gets at a very small portion of what happens on the pitch, so while it might say something about whether the play is improving, it probably doesn't say all that much.