Martin Daoust
18 Dec 2008, 01:25 AM
So now that Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith has resigned her seat on the Arsenal Board and in doing so is no longer bound by the lockdown agreement, the question seems lessone of will she sell her stock, but as the title suggests, "Who Will Buy" the 16% to 24% she currently is controlling directly or indirectly? And while the contenders seem obvious, I suspect things are not as simple as most would assume right now - which stands to make Lady Nina a very rich lady at the end of this if she playes her cards right. Actually she'll be very rich no matter how she playes her cards, but if she plays them right she could be even richer than that.
So a quick review of suitors seeking Lady Nina's, well, shares, in order of their likelihood as i see it.
1) The Evil Emperor, Ruslan Usmanov. Mr. Usmanov, perhaps better known as, well, we'll just call him Mr. the Hutt, would seem an overwhelming favorite as he is clearly both the richest of the contenders, and is already is far closer to being a majority shareholder than the others. The best thing about him would seem to be that wealth which would allow him to invest more into the football team which the current Board apparently has been reluctant to, and the fact that he could bring David Dein back into the club which could help to correct a lot of the current problems more quickly. But while the pros are obvious, the cons are even more so - a lack of history of supporting Arsenal, reported affection for Manchester United, as well as a personal history of allegedly truly awful things, and well, there's a reason he is Mr. the Hutt. And all those elicit reactions ranging from concern to anger to genuine shame, and finally projectile vomiting.
But the one thing really working against him now is the possibility that, like Roman Abramovich, his personal wealth has been reduced significantly and he may be unable to take advantage of this opportunity at this time.
2) Our American "Cousin" We Kind of Like - Now, Stan Kroenke. Mr Kroenke I think was destined to take over from the moment he and David Dein met. Indeed I once suggested and still think that its possible some of this has been an elaborate bit of panto designed to make supporters comfortable with "his sort" ahead of actually selling the club to him. The big plus with Mr. Kroenke would be his background in sporting franchise ownership, and sports marketing/communications, both of which he has beeh quite successful at in America.He also would seem to have the capability of having the needed money being married to the Wal-Mart heiress(not as much of a plus as it was before young Adolf Hitler's recent Birthday), and there is concern he would not have the cash to buy the team without significant financing and risking long-term debt. Still he would be a huge improvement over Mr. the Hutt, because of his experience in the professional sporting business world, and since his introduction to us was as David Dein's alleged partner-in-crime, again he could bring Mr. Dein back into the club once he is in control, and with Mr. Dein and Ivan Gazidis really have the Club set both on and off the pitch.
The one real con here would be does he have the cash in-hand to acquire the 35% or so needed to become the majority shareholder? But also, if indeed Lady Nina wanted to sell to Mr. Kroenke anyway, why resign her seat on the Board, unless she wants to get Mr. Kroenke to enter a bidding war with Mr. the Hutt? And can he? Better yet, would he?
3. The Perennial Orange , David Dein. Yes, David Dein. Why not? After all, he has the money sitting there with nothing to invest in. He clearly has the love for Arsenal Mr. the Hutt doesn't, and he clearly has the experience running Arsenal Football Club Mr. Kroenke does not., AND he has the deep resentment of the rest of the Board and if the rumors of Lady Nina leaving out of anger are true, that would give her no small amount of satisfaction to piss them off that much. Also David Dein approached Lady Nina first during the alleged take-over he was launching with Mr. Kroenke, which may suggest the two were closer than they were with opther Board members, so Lady Nina could well be willing to offer him the chance to buy the stock first. Also, if his return kept the club out of Mr. the Hutt's hands, he could in classic footballing fashion, become the hero at the death after playing himself out of the club in supporters eyes the first 90 minutes. And he's English - and has Arsenal in his blood.
The cons would again depend on how much Mr. Dein invested of that money and how he invested it, and how much he still has. And how willing the current Board would be to welcome him back if they do not sell out ahead of his return, amd there could be issues about whether he or Mr. Gazidis would be working with Mr. Wenger on team-building.
To say this would be an ironic twist doesn't begin to to do justice to it.
Still as Judy Tenuta used to say "IT COULD HAPPEN!" and actually I'd say the odds are a bit better than Ms. Tenuta would suggest.
4) Fizsman's Bluff, The Arsenal Board. This is clearly the longshot of the bunch, and almost certain not happen, but...Well, if the Board's disdain for Mr. Dein is that genuine or they share similar concerns to ours about whether selling to Mr. the Hutt would be a responsible decision, I can see them at least putting in a bid to force the price up to try and scare off those two, or even purchasing some of Lady Nina's stock to try and prevent or limit Mr. Usmanov's ability to push a takeover. As they see it it would protect the club from elements they don't want in it, and ensure that a Kroenke-led takeover which appears to be what they want to happen, does happen.
Of course oif the current Board want to sell they don't want to buy more stock first, especially if Mr. Kroenke only has so much cash to offer for so much stock, and they may not have the cash to buy that stock now if they wanted to. So this would only happen if it was absolutely essential to completing whatever plans they may have in place.
So there we are, and now my prediction. The Big Winner Will Be...Lady Nina, as I suspect a bidding war between at least two and possibly three parties could drive the price for her stock way beyond what she could get right now. At the worst it would lead to her getting as much as she possibly could in the current economy. She will then be a VERY Fair Lady Nina...
So a quick review of suitors seeking Lady Nina's, well, shares, in order of their likelihood as i see it.
1) The Evil Emperor, Ruslan Usmanov. Mr. Usmanov, perhaps better known as, well, we'll just call him Mr. the Hutt, would seem an overwhelming favorite as he is clearly both the richest of the contenders, and is already is far closer to being a majority shareholder than the others. The best thing about him would seem to be that wealth which would allow him to invest more into the football team which the current Board apparently has been reluctant to, and the fact that he could bring David Dein back into the club which could help to correct a lot of the current problems more quickly. But while the pros are obvious, the cons are even more so - a lack of history of supporting Arsenal, reported affection for Manchester United, as well as a personal history of allegedly truly awful things, and well, there's a reason he is Mr. the Hutt. And all those elicit reactions ranging from concern to anger to genuine shame, and finally projectile vomiting.
But the one thing really working against him now is the possibility that, like Roman Abramovich, his personal wealth has been reduced significantly and he may be unable to take advantage of this opportunity at this time.
2) Our American "Cousin" We Kind of Like - Now, Stan Kroenke. Mr Kroenke I think was destined to take over from the moment he and David Dein met. Indeed I once suggested and still think that its possible some of this has been an elaborate bit of panto designed to make supporters comfortable with "his sort" ahead of actually selling the club to him. The big plus with Mr. Kroenke would be his background in sporting franchise ownership, and sports marketing/communications, both of which he has beeh quite successful at in America.He also would seem to have the capability of having the needed money being married to the Wal-Mart heiress(not as much of a plus as it was before young Adolf Hitler's recent Birthday), and there is concern he would not have the cash to buy the team without significant financing and risking long-term debt. Still he would be a huge improvement over Mr. the Hutt, because of his experience in the professional sporting business world, and since his introduction to us was as David Dein's alleged partner-in-crime, again he could bring Mr. Dein back into the club once he is in control, and with Mr. Dein and Ivan Gazidis really have the Club set both on and off the pitch.
The one real con here would be does he have the cash in-hand to acquire the 35% or so needed to become the majority shareholder? But also, if indeed Lady Nina wanted to sell to Mr. Kroenke anyway, why resign her seat on the Board, unless she wants to get Mr. Kroenke to enter a bidding war with Mr. the Hutt? And can he? Better yet, would he?
3. The Perennial Orange , David Dein. Yes, David Dein. Why not? After all, he has the money sitting there with nothing to invest in. He clearly has the love for Arsenal Mr. the Hutt doesn't, and he clearly has the experience running Arsenal Football Club Mr. Kroenke does not., AND he has the deep resentment of the rest of the Board and if the rumors of Lady Nina leaving out of anger are true, that would give her no small amount of satisfaction to piss them off that much. Also David Dein approached Lady Nina first during the alleged take-over he was launching with Mr. Kroenke, which may suggest the two were closer than they were with opther Board members, so Lady Nina could well be willing to offer him the chance to buy the stock first. Also, if his return kept the club out of Mr. the Hutt's hands, he could in classic footballing fashion, become the hero at the death after playing himself out of the club in supporters eyes the first 90 minutes. And he's English - and has Arsenal in his blood.
The cons would again depend on how much Mr. Dein invested of that money and how he invested it, and how much he still has. And how willing the current Board would be to welcome him back if they do not sell out ahead of his return, amd there could be issues about whether he or Mr. Gazidis would be working with Mr. Wenger on team-building.
To say this would be an ironic twist doesn't begin to to do justice to it.
Still as Judy Tenuta used to say "IT COULD HAPPEN!" and actually I'd say the odds are a bit better than Ms. Tenuta would suggest.
4) Fizsman's Bluff, The Arsenal Board. This is clearly the longshot of the bunch, and almost certain not happen, but...Well, if the Board's disdain for Mr. Dein is that genuine or they share similar concerns to ours about whether selling to Mr. the Hutt would be a responsible decision, I can see them at least putting in a bid to force the price up to try and scare off those two, or even purchasing some of Lady Nina's stock to try and prevent or limit Mr. Usmanov's ability to push a takeover. As they see it it would protect the club from elements they don't want in it, and ensure that a Kroenke-led takeover which appears to be what they want to happen, does happen.
Of course oif the current Board want to sell they don't want to buy more stock first, especially if Mr. Kroenke only has so much cash to offer for so much stock, and they may not have the cash to buy that stock now if they wanted to. So this would only happen if it was absolutely essential to completing whatever plans they may have in place.
So there we are, and now my prediction. The Big Winner Will Be...Lady Nina, as I suspect a bidding war between at least two and possibly three parties could drive the price for her stock way beyond what she could get right now. At the worst it would lead to her getting as much as she possibly could in the current economy. She will then be a VERY Fair Lady Nina...