Goals/90, Assists/90 and Points/90

[ChrisE]

Nothing really to say here, just a few lists, all lists have penalty kicks removed.

Top 15 in Goals/90 2003, min. 600 minutes:


Twellman, Taylor 0.713
Roberts, Zizi 0.617
Buddle, Edson 0.596
Noonan, Pat 0.547
Donovan, Landon 0.526
De Rosario, Dwayne 0.525
Moreno, Alejandro 0.483
Ralph, Damani 0.453
Simutenkov, Igor 0.439
Ching, Brian 0.437
Mcbride, Brian 0.412
Serna, Diego 0.409
Spencer, John 0.397
Chung, Mark 0.375
Eskandarian, Alecko 0.371



assists/90, 2003:



Preki 0.571
Cancela, Jose 0.552
Lisi, Mark 0.541
Moore, Joe-Max 0.531
Stoitchkov, Hristo 0.499
Williams, Andy 0.463
Nhlecko, Toni 0.455
Cunningham, Jeff 0.448
Garcia, Freddy 0.423
Guevara, Amado 0.398



(I cut this one short because Quaranta snuck on at like 14. The ultimate sin.)

assists+goals/90


Noonan, Pat 0.930
De Rosario, Dwayne 0.918
Twellman, Taylor 0.903
Buddle, Edson 0.835
Moore, Joe-Max 0.834
Donovan, Landon 0.813
Preki 0.807
Stoitchkov, Hristo 0.799
Ralph, Damani 0.725
Cunningham, Jeff 0.705
Serna, Diego 0.682
Nhlecko, Toni 0.682
Moreno, Alejandro 0.645
Simutenkov, Igor 0.627
Eskandarian, Alecko 0.618



And career numbers, minimum 2000 minutes:

goals/90


John, Stern 0.867
Twellman, Taylor 0.731
Shannon, Musa 0.636
Diallo, Mamadou 0.616
Buddle, Edson 0.588
Ruiz, Carlos 0.554
Marino, Pete 0.545
Savarese, Giovanni 0.540
Lassiter, Roy 0.530
De Avila, Antonio 0.526
Graziani, Ariel 0.523
Serna, Diego 0.521
Pineda Chacon, Alex 0.501
Diaz Arce, Raul 0.500
Razov, Ante 0.486
Rammel, Steve 0.485


assists/90


Valderrama, Carlos 0.657
Etcheverry, Marco 0.557
Bishop, Ian 0.553
Limpar, Anders 0.546
Williams, Andy 0.531
Stoitchkov, Hristo 0.515
Preki 0.511
Martinez, Antonio 0.506
Paz, Adrian 0.496
Hermosillo, Carlos 0.480
Machon, Martin 0.464
Wynalda, Eric 0.463
Podbrozny, Jerzy 0.457
Warzycha, Robert 0.452
Kosecki, Roman 0.447
Nowak, Peter 0.444


assists+goals/90


John, Stern 1.008
Twellman, Taylor 0.939
Hermosillo, Carlos 0.929
Serna, Diego 0.912
De Avila, Antonio 0.912
Stoitchkov, Hristo 0.901
Buddle, Edson 0.882
Shannon, Musa 0.859
Cunningham, Jeff 0.832
Diallo, Mamadou 0.831
Wynalda, Eric 0.814
Pineda Chacon, Alex 0.811
Valencia, Adolfo 0.783
Moore, Joe-Max 0.776
Razov, Ante 0.768


Well, maybe a few things to say.

First of all, I was really surprised to see Toni Nhlecko on any lists, considering it was generally thought in Dallas that he looked good and made the offense better, but wasn't himself particurlarly effective.

Alecko scored had a higher goals/90 than Ruiz (.309). It will be interesting to see how he does under new management next year.

Zizi Roberts didn't play a lot of minutes, but was productive in the time he did play. And several of the 5 goals he scored were quite impressive. I hope he finds a spot in the Rapid's lineup next year.

Two of this year's three MVP candidates practically disappear when you look at per90 stats.

Cunningham ain't the black hole people make him out to be.
Steve Ralston career assists/90: 0.390
Jeff Cunningham career assists/90: 0.369

OK, I think this post is by now far far too long.

[NoSix]

Originally posted by ChrisE
all lists have penalty kicks removed.


Why? Because Carlos Ruiz takes LA's penalty kicks, and it would upset the BS faithful if he showed up higher on your lists?

A penalty kick counts just as much on the scoresheet as any other goal. If you are going to subtract penalty kicks, why not goals scored off free kicks, or tap-ins from 2 yards out with the keeper already beaten - surely that is an easier shot than a penalty kick.

[Naco]

Originally posted by NoSix
Why? Because Carlos Ruiz takes LA's penalty kicks, and it would upset the BS faithful if he showed up higher on your lists?

A penalty kick counts just as much on the scoresheet as any other goal. If you are going to subtract penalty kicks, why not goals scored off free kicks, or tap-ins from 2 yards out with the keeper already beaten - surely that is an easier shot than a penalty kick.

I agree.

[NoSix]

Originally posted by ChrisE
Well, maybe a few things to say.

First of all, I was really surprised to see Toni Nhlecko on any lists, considering it was generally thought in Dallas that he looked good and made the offense better, but wasn't himself particurlarly effective.

Alecko scored had a higher goals/90 than Ruiz (.309). It will be interesting to see how he does under new management next year.

Zizi Roberts didn't play a lot of minutes, but was productive in the time he did play. And several of the 5 goals he scored were quite impressive. I hope he finds a spot in the Rapid's lineup next year.

Cunningham ain't the black hole people make him out to be.
Steve Ralston career assists/90: 0.390
Jeff Cunningham career assists/90: 0.369

OK, I think this post is by now far far too long.

Quibbles about PK's aside, this is interesting stuff and your analysis is spot on.

Hard to understand with DC's anemic offense why Eskandarian didn't get more chances - hard for the crude but effective types to get minutes I guess.

Similar situation with Alejandro Moreno in LA, as much as they struggled to score, seems like he should have been Ruiz's regular strike partner.

Lisi looked great in the few times I saw him play - also not sure why he didn't figure more prominently for Bradley.

[Elninho]

Ruiz deserved his PK goals... he earned most of those PKs himself!

[NoSix]

FWIW, the top 15 G/90, A/90, and G+A/90 including PK's:

G/90:
Taylor Twellman 0.713
Zizi Roberts 0.617
Edson Buddle 0.596
Carlos Ruiz 0.579
Landon Donovan 0.574
John Spencer 0.556
Ante Razov 0.555
Pat Noonan 0.547
Dwayne De Rosario 0.525
Hristo Stoitchkov 0.499
Damani Ralph 0.499
Brian McBride 0.495
Alejandro Moreno 0.483
Igor Simutenkov 0.439
Brian Ching 0.437

A/90
Preki 0.571
Jose Cancela 0.552
Mark Lisi 0.541
Joe-Max Moore 0.531
Hristo Stoitchkov 0.499
Andy Williams 0.463
Toni Nhleko 0.455
Jeff Cunningham 0.448
Freddy Garcia 0.423
Amado Guevara 0.398
Dwayne De Rosario 0.394
Pat Noonan 0.383
Santino Quaranta 0.366
Ali Curtis 0.358
Ian Russell 0.336

(G+A)/90
Hristo Stoitchkov 0.999
Preki 0.975
Pat Noonan 0.930
Dwayne De Rosario 0.918
Taylor Twellman 0.903
Landon Donovan 0.861
Edson Buddle 0.835
Joe-Max Moore 0.834
Ante Razov 0.793
Carlos Ruiz 0.772
Damani Ralph 0.771
Jeff Cunningham 0.769
John Spencer 0.755
Toni Nhleko 0.682
Alejandro Moreno 0.645

[NoSix]

Perhaps Hristo still had the skills to be MVP, but not the fitness or attitude.

If Noonan and Twellman, and Donovan and DeRosario can remain healthy, the Revs and Quakes could put up some big offensive numbers in 2004.

For that matter, if the Crew can retain their trio of Buddle, Cunningham, and McBride (#18 on (G+A)/90) and keep them healthy, perhaps Andrulis can get some vindication in 2004. Giving Freddy Garcia more minutes in MF might help.

[beineke]

Originally posted by Elninho
Ruiz deserved his PK goals... he earned most of those PKs himself!

I agree that, ideally, PK goals should count for something, both for the player who drew it and for the player who converted it. (Likewise, a shooter should be penalized for missed PK's.) But elsewhere in this forum, Chris documented all of this year's PK's, and IIRC, Ruiz only drew 3 of the 8 he attempted.

[Nutmeg]

Chris,

Great stuff. Thank you.

[voros]

Great stuff Chris, the next step is to "normalize" the stats to compare across years. Why:

A. MLS in 2003 decided to get a bit more picky in the way it hands out assists, so assists dropped this year.

B. Scoring was a good deal higher in the 1996-1999 period of MLS before the league started to develop decent defenses league wide.

If you do this, it makes Twellman's performances thus far look pretty damn stunning.

On the subject of PKs, PKs were converted roughly 80% of the time. Until someone can show me _significant_ differences in the abilities of various players in taking PKs (secondary PK takers in MLS had a slightly higher conversion percentage than the primary ones in 2003), I'm VERY comfortable with giving out not much for converting spot kicks. Give credit to the guys who drew them, but I don't think the league lists them in it's stats databases.

And there's no comparison to tap ins from two yards because it often takes a fair amount of skill to be in position to convert those easy chances. The penalty kick easy chances are handed to you by your coach.

If you want to give Ruiz .2 goals for his converted ones and minus .8 goals for his missed ones, I suppose I can't stop you. Ruiz would then have 8.6 goals and Twellman would have 14.2.

[beineke]

Originally posted by voros
On the subject of PKs, PKs were converted roughly 80% of the time. Until someone can show me _significant_ differences in the abilities of various players in taking PKs (secondary PK takers in MLS had a slightly higher conversion percentage than the primary ones in 2003), I'm VERY comfortable with giving out not much for converting spot kicks.

If you look at a broader sample, you'll find plenty of evidence. For instance, in post-game penalties, shooting percentages are much lower, not much over 60%, IIRC. Also, Peter Hirdt noted at one point that players listed at under 150 pounds had made fewer than 50% of their MLS PK attempts (excluding Cienfuegos, it was like 30%).

Finally, you seem to be setting a remarkably high baseline. In 2003, MLS PK's were converted 81% of the time, but prior to 2003, only 71% of PK attempts were converted. Even this latter number is biased, since it includes the only best available penalty takers. Shouldn't a player's penalty taking performance be evaluated relative to the next-best available shooter? And isn't that player's percentage likely to be somewhere in the mid-to-high 60's?

[NoSix]

Originally posted by voros

On the subject of PKs, PKs were converted roughly 80% of the time. Until someone can show me _significant_ differences in the abilities of various players in taking PKs (secondary PK takers in MLS had a slightly higher conversion percentage than the primary ones in 2003), I'm VERY comfortable with giving out not much for converting spot kicks. Give credit to the guys who drew them, but I don't think the league lists them in it's stats databases.

I agree with Beineke on this one.



And there's no comparison to tap ins from two yards because it often takes a fair amount of skill to be in position to convert those easy chances. The penalty kick easy chances are handed to you by your coach.

But there is a comparison. Let's say the average success rate on penalty kicks is 70%. If I search hard enough, I'm sure I can find a class of shots during the run of play that has a percentage near that - say, shots taken from inside the opponent's six yard box. By your rationale, those goals should be excluded, too, because they're just too easy?!



If you want to give Ruiz .2 goals for his converted ones and minus .8 goals for his missed ones, I suppose I can't stop you. Ruiz would then have 8.6 goals and Twellman would have 14.2.
According to the laws of the game, a goal is scored when the whole of the ball passes completely over the end line below the cross bar and between the goal posts. Since Ruiz's penalty kicks all qualified under the laws, I'll continue to record them as 1.0 goals.

Look, Twellman and Ruiz have tied for the league lead in goals the last two years. I like Twellman a lot better because he's a much cleaner player than Ruiz, and to me cleaner play is more beautiful. But when it comes to statistics, I strongly believe the more objective the better, so I try not to let my feelings interfere with my better judgement.

[ChrisE]

Originally posted by NoSix
Why? Because Carlos Ruiz takes LA's penalty kicks, and it would upset the BS faithful if he showed up higher on your lists?

Frankly, I couldn't care less where Ruiz, or anybody else for that matter, ended up on these lists. Regardless, I doubt many of the BS faithful will ever see this thread.


A penalty kick counts just as much on the scoresheet as any other goal.

True, but who do you credit with the goal? When Damarcus Beasley forces Wes Hart into making a desperation foul, and Ante Razov subsequently scores the PK, does Razov deserve all of the credit? What if Razov misses? Does Beasley deserve no credit because a goal wasn't scored?

I suggested in a previous thread (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=80325) a system like what Voros suggested, where a player gets .8 (should have been .7) goals for drawing a PK, .2 for making one, and -.8 for missing one. I didn't use that here because 1. nobody seemed to care and 2. I don't have PK's drawn for previous years.

Do you think that would be a fair way of accounting for PK's?



If you are going to subtract penalty kicks, why not goals scored off free kicks, or tap-ins from 2 yards out with the keeper already beaten - surely that is an easier shot than a penalty kick.

Well, I'd never thought about it, but I suppose that if I had the numbers for free kicks taken and scored (and corner kick assists as well), I would be willing to subtract those as well. Unfortunately, except for Elias Sports Bureau, I don't think anyone has those stats, and I definitely am not going to go through 8 years of match logs to be able to do that.

[ChrisE]

Originally posted by beineke
If you look at a broader sample, you'll find plenty of evidence. For instance, in post-game penalties, shooting percentages are much lower, not much over 60%, IIRC.

I don't think you can simply assume this is the same kind of sample as an in-game PK. It's an extremely different situation than taking one PK in the middle of a game. But even if PK's were only converted at 60%, does that mean that players should be credited with a full goal for scoring one?


Also, Peter Hirdt noted at one point that players listed at under 150 pounds had made fewer than 50% of their MLS PK attempts (excluding Cienfuegos, it was like 30%).

I'm not sure what the point here is. Sure, some players will have difficulty making PK's. That may include players under 150 pounds. However, I don't think there are many teams in MLS starting more than two or three players under that weight, and by my count there's only two forwards less than that weight (Herculez Gomez and Igor Simutenkov). Anyway, it's a very convenient weight he chose, the numbers would be a good deal less convincing at 151 lbs.

[beineke]

FTR, I've spent the last hour examining the paper whose appendix is linked below. There appear to be some inaccuracies in its analysis, so I gave up on trying to do anything with the data. But there is one very interesting finding (on page 11). In the last ten minutes of close games, shooters appear to convert substantially fewer penalties. (They also appear to be much less willing to shoot up the middle.)

http://www.econ.brown.edu/~iph/pdf/PeleAppendix.pdf

[Note also: these numbers are for top European pk takers, so the shooting %age is (presumably) biased upwards.]

[voros]

Originally posted by NoSix
According to the laws of the game, a goal is scored when the whole of the ball passes completely over the end line below the cross bar and between the goal posts. Since Ruiz's penalty kicks all qualified under the laws, I'll continue to record them as 1.0 goals.
Sure, but does a converted penalty kick tell us nearly as much about a player's goal scoring _ability_ as other goals do?

That's the rub. We want to try and get at the varying abilities of players at scoring goals. That Ruiz had 8 penalty kick attempts and Twellman had 1, doesn't really tell us much about their goal scoring abilities. It doesn't really even tell us much about their penalty taking abilities. Ruiz has converted 85% of his in his MLS career, Twellman has converted 75% of his. Considering the small samples (Ruiz has 13 attempts, Twellman has 4), does that really tell us much about their penalty taking abilities? Ante Razov had converted 86% of his penalties (12 of 14) in his MLS career before missing on the potential 3-3 equalizer in the MLS Cup.

Ruiz did have an excellent year in 2002, better than Twellman's particularly when you count the playoffs. But Twellman was a superior goal scorer in 2003 when he was healthy.

[beineke]

Originally posted by voros
Ruiz did have an excellent year in 2002, better than Twellman's particularly when you count the playoffs. But Twellman was a superior goal scorer in 2003 when he was healthy.

I really like your work in breaking down Ed Johnson's youth team stats in terms of PK goals and non-PK goals, and I agree that such adjustments are useful ... but NoSix has a valid point in saying that other adjustments are possible.

During the time that Twellman wasn't healthy, Chris Brown was a "superior" goal scorer to either Twellman or Ruiz. Then Brown got hurt, and Pat Noonan scored a bunch of goals. Even Chris Bagley drew a PK during his 59 minutes of action. The Revs did just fine without Taylor. By contrast, Ruiz was out of the Galaxy starting line-up five times. They lost four games and tied one, scoring a total of three goals.

[NoSix]

Originally posted by ChrisE


True, but who do you credit with the goal? When Damarcus Beasley forces Wes Hart into making a desperation foul, and Ante Razov subsequently scores the PK, does Razov deserve all of the credit? What if Razov misses? Does Beasley deserve no credit because a goal wasn't scored?


I would credit the goal to the penalty taker. I understand that it is a high percentage shot, but my argument is that a penalty kick being a high percentage shot is not a reason to treat it any differently from any other goal.

In your example, I would credit Beasley with an offensive foul suffered in the opponent's penalty area. If at the end of the season I found that he had four such fouls suffered while no other player in the league had more than two, then that would tell me something about how much an offensive threat Beasley is. But in your example, whether or not a goal is scored is entirely up to Razov and Cannon.

[NoSix]

Originally posted by voros
Sure, but does a converted penalty kick tell us nearly as much about a player's goal scoring _ability_ as other goals do?


Yes! Philosophically, I believe a goal is a goal, and once you start down the slippery slope of excluding goals from penalty kicks, I don't believe there is any consistent way of determining which other high percentage shot goals should count and which should be excluded.


But Twellman was a superior goal scorer in 2003 when he was healthy.

I agree, and that is reflected in their G/90 minute ratio INCLUDING PK's: 0.713 vs. 0.579.

[Andy_B]

This whole PK controversy could be easily avoided if FIFA would simply change the rules to be the person who drew the penalty has to take the penalty unless injured to the point of being subbed.

Andy