The Official DC Playoff Scenarios Thread [R]

[gocaps]

Buoyed by the fact that we got an unexpected (to me, anyway) point tonight in Houston, I've spent the last half hour or so dissecting the remaining games on the schedule and trying to figure out the various ways DC can get into the playoffs.

My brain is officially scrambled. There are WAY too many possibilities. It was a lot to digest but, in the end, I picked up one thing - the middle range of this league sucks so bad that even a slight uptick in our form from the recent trash could be enough to get us in. There's hope.

One weirdness - we are even head-to-head with both KC and NY, the two teams we have the best shot of catching. I think goal difference is the second tiebreaker, which we're behind on (by 3 goals) but if we catch either of them we might have made up that gap in the process. Does anyone know what the third tiebreaker is?

[gocaps]

One negative note: that crap late goal we gave up to Dallas at home last month could be even bigger than it seemed at the time. Dallas is only one point up on us in the standings, so we have a shot of being even with them too. But because we turned victory into a draw at home and then laid an egg down there, Dallas holds the tiebreak on us.

[SixKick]

Tiebreakers

1. Head-to-Head (Points only)
2. Overall Goal Differential
3. Overall Total Goals Scored
4. Tiebreakers 1-3 applied only to matches on the road
5. Tiebreakers 1-3 applied only to matches at home
6. Fewest team disciplinary points in the League Fair Play table
7. Coin toss

[La Barra Blonde]

I think you forgot the most important tie-breaker - bribes. :D

[Footer Phooter]

One negative note: that crap late goal we gave up to Dallas at home last month could be even bigger than it seemed at the time. Dallas is only one point up on us in the standings, so we have a shot of being even with them too. But because we turned victory into a draw at home and then laid an egg down there, Dallas holds the tiebreak on us.

Remember the Chivas meltdown early in the season? That's the game I'd like to have back right about now.

[Eismahn]

Low down on the low down.

Thought it was top 2 finishers in each respective conference, then the next top 4 finishers regardless of conference.

So far, we've got

Pts Club
WEST
44 Houston
42 Chivas USA
EAST
54 Columbus
43 Chicago
43 New England

These teams can't be caught, with 2 games remaining for all except SJ.
That leaves just 3 spots to fill.
The rest of the teams, their points and who they've left to play-

36 New York -COL, @CHI
36 Kansas City -SJ, @NE
36 Real Salt Lake -DAL, @COL
35 Dallas -@RSL,@LA
34 DC -NE, @CLB
34 Colorado -@CHV, RSL
32 Toronto -CHI, @SJ
32 Los Angeles -@HOU, DAL
30 San Jose -@HOU, @KC, TOR

Now we can all relate a bit better to GOCAPS dizzyness.

Interesting to see how many of these teams have a road match to finish with.

[usadcu]

OK - here's my try at the crystal ball:

current points, games left, predicted results, predicted points-
NJ 36, Clb-@Chi, W-L, 39
KC 36, SJ-@NE, W-L, 39
Salt Lake 36, Dal-@Col, W-T, 40
Dallas 35, @RSL-@LAg, L-T, 36
Denver 34, @Chv-RSL, L-T, 35
DC 34, NE-@Clb, W-T, 38
Toronto 32, Chi-@SJ, L-L, 32
LAG 32, @Hou-Dal, L-T, 33
SJ 30, @Hou-@KC-Tor, L-L-W, 33

So I've got Salt Lake taking third in the west, with KC and RedBullJersey taking the two wildcards.

Close but no cigar for DC.

[usadcu]

Thought it was top 2 finishers in each respective conference, then the next top 4 finishers regardless of conference.


This year it is the top three in each conference, with the next two overall.

A cynical person might refer to the change as the "please-let's-not-have-Beckham-and-the-Gals-miss-the-playoffs-again" rule.

[RedAndBlack]

FWIW, here is mine:



PTS Team WIN. Loss. Tie. Final PTS

36 New York--- COL, @CHI = 39
36 Kansas City--- SJ, @NE =37
36 Real Salt Lake--- DAL, @COL =42
35 Dallas--- @RSL, @LA =38
34 DC--- NE, @CLB =40
34 Colorado--- @CHV, RSL =35
32 Toronto--- CHI, @ SJ =32
32 Los Angeles--- @HOU, DAL =32
30 San Jose--- @HOU, @KC, TOR =34

I could really see this happening:o

RSL 3rd in the west. DCU in the East and NY going out West

[Jester64]

FWIW, here is mine:



PTS Team WIN. Loss. Tie. Final PTS

36 New York--- COL, @CHI = 39
36 Kansas City--- SJ, @NE =37
36 Real Salt Lake--- DAL, @COL =42
35 Dallas--- @RSL, @LA =38
34 DC--- NE, @CLB =40
34 Colorado--- @CHV, RSL =35
32 Toronto--- CHI, @ SJ =32
32 Los Angeles--- @HOU, DAL =32
30 San Jose--- @HOU, @KC, TOR =34

I could really see this happening:o

RSL 3rd in the west. DCU in the East and NY going out West

Which, of course, has us against Chicago in round 1. Given our run of red cards lately and history with Chicago in playoffs, we might not have enough players to finish the home and away legs. :(

[Eismahn]

What I've concluded is that IF DC can get the two wins and get to 40, and
IF Chicago and New England make momentum going into the playoffs a priority in their last match of the season at home and take care of business, we still have to watch out for Dallas, Colorado and Real Salt Lake. What's key are the matches to play between teams still competing for points-
KC vs. SJ, RSL vs. DAL, vs. COL, DAL vs. LA, TOR vs. SJ-
as far as positioning for playoffs is concerned- that's a lot of 6 point games to consider so late in the season.
If nothing else, it should make for some exciting tilts.

Looking at this a bit more closely, as far as the West, root for Real Salt Lake.
If they win their last two, it's over for the rest of their field in trying to catch us, leaving us to worry about NY and KC. And Columbus can knock out NY for us if they net a result @NY.

Hmmm... a perfect storm and suddenly this seems doable.:p

[bigredfutbol]

This thread will be so much more my speed around 9:31 PM Thursday night.

[Monarch Bay Beachbum]

I bought 4 seats for the MLS Cup so I am still hopeful. I think we can beat the teams from the west. Columbus v DC United sounds good to me.

[Eismahn]

Pts Club
WEST
44 Houston
42 Chivas USA
EAST
54 Columbus
43 Chicago
43 New England

These teams can't be caught, with 2 games remaining for all except SJ.
That leaves just 3 spots to fill.
The rest of the teams, their points and who they've left to play-

36 New York -CLB, @CHI
36 Kansas City -SJ, @NE
36 Real Salt Lake -DAL, @COL
35 Dallas -@RSL,@LA
34 DC -NE, @CLB
34 Colorado -@CHV, RSL
32 Toronto -CHI, @SJ
32 Los Angeles -@HOU, DAL
30 San Jose -@HOU, @KC, TOR

Just wanted to clean this up a bit, noticed I slipped up in listing NY's 1st match vs. Columbus, as opposed to Colorado.

[Q*bert Jones III]

This is giving me a brainache. Two wins likely gets us in. It all starts with New England. The playoffs have already started for United.

Also, it's worth noting that the final week's schedule has DCU playing at 5pm on Sunday, the last game of the season. So they'll know the stakes before kickoff.

[Eismahn]

Update after Houston's win over SJ

Pts Club
WEST
47 Houston
42 Chivas USA
EAST
54 Columbus
43 Chicago
43 New England

These teams can't be caught, with 2 games remaining. That leaves just 3 spots to fill.
The rest of the teams, their points and who they've left to play-

36 New York -CLB, @CHI
36 Kansas City -SJ, @NE
36 Real Salt Lake -DAL, @COL
35 Dallas -@RSL, @LA
34 DC -NE, @CLB
34 Colorado -@CHV, RSL
32 Toronto -CHI, @SJ
32 Los Angeles -@HOU, DAL
30 San Jose -@KC, TOR

[La Barra Blonde]

These teams can't be caught, with 2 games remaining. That leaves just 3 spots to fill.


Geez, I don't need this kind of stress this late in the year. Ayyy!!!! :eek:

But we could do it!! Come on DCU!!!!

[bigredfutbol]

The playoffs have already started for United.


QFT. This has to be the mentality in the locker room and on the field, or they are doomed.

[dcchelseafc]

id rather us stay east...trust me!
on all the roadtrips i have been on this year.....we suck out west! (mabye i shouldnt go and there win) haha

[Bootsy Collins]

The playoffs have already started for United.

That's all that has to be said.