Yukos/Sibneft ties

[mst77]

Not to put too political a slant on things here but reading other boards it seems there are a lot of doom-and-gloomers that are predicting the same treatment for Roman that Khodorkovsky is getting now. Does anyone know how much of Roman's billions are still tied up in YukosSibneft? I know he cashed out a lot earlier this year but I'm assuming he must still have a large chunk.

But the seizure represented the first time that Russia has taken back control of a large company privatized in the 1990s and immediately sent shudders through the investment community, which has worried that the prosecution of Khodorkovsky and his team would lead to a broader renationalization of private property.

President Vladimir Putin had rejected just such a revision of privatization on Monday. "There will be no generalizations, analogies or precedents, especially related to the results of privatization," he said then. "That is why I would like to ask for a stop to any speculation or hysteria on this score."

But in the days since then, Putin allies have raised the prospect of revisiting the privatization of other companies, particularly Sibneft and Tyumen Oil Co. (TNK). Some business leaders worry that renationalization could take place one company at a time through what they see as selective prosecutions.

Also, many make it out that Roman knew what was coming to him and cashed out and ran before it happened. While there may be some truth in that, it contradicts most inside sources that say he is still on decent terms with Putin's government since he is not politically motivated. He is one of the oligarchs who made a deal with Putin that they could keep their shadily-purchased assets as long as they did not interfere with or oppose him.

Has anyone put forth the notion that maybe it is Roman's friendship with Putin's insiders that led to him moving his assets out of Russia, namely his shares in YukosSibneft? Maybe his contacts said "Look, we are going after Khodorkovsky soon and this is going to affect your business interests - maybe you should cash out now while the value is high." Food for thought...

[Elder Statesman]

Not to worry. Abromovich sold his remaining shares in Sibneft. He is now worth 8.5 billion. When Putin came to power he told the Oligarchs that they could keep their companies (most of which were gotten by shady means) if they pay their taxes and stay out of politics. The first two to face trouble were Boris Berezovsky (owner of channel ORT) and Vladamir Gusinksy(Owner of channel NTV). Both used their channels to attack Putin over the war in Chechneya. Both are now in exile. Khodorovsky began funding opposition to Putin earlier this year and that is why he is facing these charges. Abromovich hasn't shown any opposition to Putin so I don't see him having any problem.

[nicephoras]

He now owns Chelsea lock stock and barrel. Its not quite Sibneft, but its his, and is way beyond the power of the Russian government to take back. Putin has been a lot less successful in extraditing the exiled oligarchs, although he's tried repeatedly. (England blocked Berezovsky's extradition, I believe, while Greece is still blocking Gusinsky's.) It stands to reason he won't get their foreign assets either.

Provided Roman keeps diversifying, he will keep increasing his chances of survival, which are already pretty good, since he doesn't care about politics at all.

[houstonblues]

Not sure how you can say Roman doesn't care about politics seeing as he is Governor of a state in Russia. My understanding is that position, by the way, protects him from being prosecuted for certain crimes. Not that he has commited any, just that he has a level of protection that the others do not have.

I'm not terribly worried but I imagine that we will see Roman move to London (I believe he has already relocated his family there). It makes sense and he has a good reason (Chelsea).

One thing is certain I've never paid this much attention to Russian politics before!

[Clan]

Don't forget that there has been nobody better in football than Bates at hiding assets in foreign businesses.
"overseas investors" was his always reliable quote when asked about anything that just didn't add up.
Half (or even more) of the overseas companies that Bates and his former? cronies were involved in are currently under investigation by the FBI.
Two of his "associates" actually have arrest warents issued for them by the FBI.

It may be little or no conincidence that Abramovich and Bates hooked up.

[nicephoras]

Originally posted by houstonblues
Not sure how you can say Roman doesn't care about politics seeing as he is Governor of a state in Russia. My understanding is that position, by the way, protects him from being prosecuted for certain crimes. Not that he has commited any, just that he has a level of protection that the others do not have.

Well, yes and no. Roman is the governor of the easternmost region of Russia, but most of his constituents are eskimos and penguins. He has the position because he felt like donating a lot of money to the region. I don't believe he's from the area either (he's from Volgograd, if memory serves right).
He does also get some immunity, but if Putin really came down hard, that immunity would vanish. Its a mere technicality in a country where the tax police wear masks and carry machine guns.

Originally posted by houstonblues
One thing is certain I've never paid this much attention to Russian politics before!

No need to do follow Russian politics. I sometimes do it out of habit, but its depressing, although at times darkly comic. Roman's arrest would provoke a media firestorm, because he's been neutral thus far, if not pro-Putin. Besides, the more assets he sells, the more cash he will funnel along to special Enron like entities in the Caymans (that's where Khodorkovsky's fortune is stashed these days, actually.)

[the101er]

Well, I've been speculating on this since I read some reports on the Oligarchs in September. I think RA bought Chelsea, and made a lot of high profile signings for the express purpose of keeping his name in the headlines until most of Europe had it memorized.

It will not be easy for Putin to go after Abramovich now, and should RA lead Chelsea to greater glory and Putin lead Russia to greater ruin, how long will it be, before the Eskiomos and Penguins are leading a call for him to head the government?

He could be the Russian Berlusconi, and having a high profile London football club, certainly won't hurt in meeting the movers and shakers of Western European politics. Does anyone in the press notice who goes into his house, if it isn't Sven Goran Ericksson?

All of that said, I know nothing about Russian politics, so I couldn't tell you if this is a good or a bad thing. It will, inevitably, I worry though, become interesting for Chelsea fans.

[nicephoras]

Originally posted by the101er
Well, I've been speculating on this since I read some reports on the Oligarchs in September. I think RA bought Chelsea, and made a lot of high profile signings for the express purpose of keeping his name in the headlines until most of Europe had it memorized.

It will not be easy for Putin to go after Abramovich now, and should RA lead Chelsea to greater glory and Putin lead Russia to greater ruin, how long will it be, before the Eskiomos and Penguins are leading a call for him to head the government?

He could be the Russian Berlusconi, and having a high profile London football club, certainly won't hurt in meeting the movers and shakers of Western European politics. Does anyone in the press notice who goes into his house, if it isn't Sven Goran Ericksson?

All of that said, I know nothing about Russian politics, so I couldn't tell you if this is a good or a bad thing. It will, inevitably, I worry though, become interesting for Chelsea fans.

Even the penguins and the eskimos won't help :)
Actually, I do think Roman bought Chelsea because he's a sports fan, not because of any political ploys. He owns a hockey team in Russia, and actually goes to the Chelsea games (which is nice).
Roman will not be the Berlusconi of Russia, because the last 10 years have shown that the oligarchs fare very poorly in Russian politics. Gusinsky, Berezovsky, a few others who were more tangential (one headed a collapsed bank - my memory fails me for his name) - all were unsuccessful. They're neither trusted by the electorate (for good reason) nor by the old party/military factions. Especially not by the former security service people so prevalent in the current government, now rather ironically referred to as the "chekists" - not a pleasant connotation. I don't think we're going to see President Roman any time soon. If he has a business reason for buying Chelsea, its just diversifying and stashing his money abroad.

And hey, wasn't that win over Everton nice :D

[Clan]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,2763,1076055,00.html

Um, according to this, he does indeed have reason to worry.

[houstonblues]

My mother-in-law, of all people, told me this afternoon that she had read an article about how Abramovich was next on the Russian business man hit list. (She obviously knows I'm a huge Chelsea fan.)

All this makes me very nervous. Roman needs to spend a couple of billion to make this all go away. Hasn't he already relocated his family to London. He should do the same and we can all live happily ever after.

[Elder Statesman]

Originally posted by Clanblue
http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,2763,1076055,00.html

Um, according to this, he does indeed have reason to worry.

I wouldn't be too worried about this. There is always someone in Russia complaining that prosecuters need to go after Oligarchs for their shady gains. The only person that matters is Putin.
The only Oligarchs that have been gone after are the ones that opposed Putin politically. Therefore, I wouldn't worry about Abromovich.