Can South Africa qualify to the next round?

[jagum]

I wonder if South Africa is able to qualify to the second rond in its WC 2010......Of course it depends on the draw.....
What do you think?
If not South Africa could be the first country that organize a senior WC and do not qualify for the next stage......

[Robandinho]

No they won't get to the next round, they are not good enough...

[Jwaksman]

It's just wrong to say that they WON'T move on to the next round. We don't know their draw, we don't know how much they'll improve in the next 1.5 years, and there is always a lot of randomness in any three game stretch.


But what we can say is that unless they get a very generous draw and improve substantially, they will VERY probably be the first host to fail to escape the first round. They're just not a very good team.

[Wezza]

I think it's unlikely South Africa will get out of the group stage, they're just not good enough. But, you never know, stranger things have happened.

[almango]

Considering hosts get seeded then the draw will be favourable to them to some extent as they will not have one of the Worlds top 7 in their group. They will also not have another African team in the group. If the pots get drawn the same as last time they will end up with a group that looks like this

South Africa
unseeded Euro team
South American team
Asian/North American team

If the pots get drawn similar to 2002 then we get

South AFrica
Unseeded Euro team
Asian Team
American team

How they end up grouping the confeds depends on who is seeded and how many teams are left over.

[Lusankya]

Or they could use a special pot again as I pointed out there:
http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=15788095&postcount=7




South Africa
unseeded Euro team
South American team
Asian/North American team


The south american team would be pretty solid, not to hard but of course not weak. The team from North America or Asia could be anything, from weak to decent.
There is also a wide variety of European teams. It could be Netherlands, England or Croatia, but it could also be Greece or Israel.


South Africa
Unseeded Euro team
Asian Team
American team

That would be bad. The UEFA teams isn't "unseeded" in this case.

[Robandinho]

By the way since south africa is in the southern hemisphere will the world cup be held in January which will be their summer or still be held in june?

[vancity eagle]

I would not write them off so quickly, much obviously depends on the draw, but they are not as bad as everybody is making them out to be. They are actually a very good passing team but are very poor at finishing. They did beat a full strength Paraguay 3-0 a few months back, and they drew with Australia as well recently, and Uruguay so there is potential. If they get a cupcake group I don't see why they cannot qualify. A tougher group I'd have to bet against them.

[ussoccerFan12358]

Quick question. Do you guys think the odds are longer for them advancing than they were for the US in '94?

[Jwaksman]

Quick question. Do you guys think the odds are longer for them advancing than they were for the US in '94?


Definitely.

The US team had a history of being good in the past, and already had the early pieces of the team that has gone on to have so much success in the past ten years. Remember, the US team had won the Gold Cup in 1991 by beating Mexico and Honduras. and they'd won the 1992 US Cup with wins over Portugal and Ireland and a tie vs. Italy. They had proven that they had the ability to hang with the big boys before 1994.

South Africa, on the other hand, has no such history. They did win the African Nations Cup in 1996, but have had very little success since then. They have had some recent friendly success (the aforementioned win over Paraguay, as well as a win over Canada last year), but at least part of that has to do with the very, very long travel for players flying in from their club squads. Teams will be in South Africa well before the World Cup, and will be accustomed to the time change and the climate and area well before the games.


One stat to look at is the Elo World Football rankings which I, and most others, view as more accurate than the Fifa rankings. The US went into the '94 World Cup ranked 50th in the World. South Africa is currently 93rd. That's quite a difference.

[Lusankya]

The US had an easy group and even the four best 3rd placed teams advanced, so there chances were pretty good.
Everthing depends on the draw. They need to be better than two other teams.

[glennaldo_sf]

Lusankya... I disagree with your statement! The US did not have an easy draw in 94. Romania and Switzerland were both very strong that year and Colombia were one of the pretournament favorites. I would have said that was on of the toughest groups we could have gotten. Probably the toughest group except for the Italy/Mexico/Norway/Ireland group. Germany 2006 on the other hand..... anyhoo.. that's a different topic....

Back to SAF... they look an absolute mess at the moment. The African Nations elmination is a disaster in terms of their preparation. One must consider though that some teams suffer terrible form leading up to big tournaments but hit form right at the right time. Remeber South Korea prior to 2002? They did not look great but turned it around just in time. They got some help yeah I know. ;) ... but they did play some nice stuff too. Maybe it will be a similar story for South Africa.

[NoRightFoot]

I would not write them off so quickly, much obviously depends on the draw, but they are not as bad as everybody is making them out to be. They are actually a very good passing team but are very poor at finishing. They did beat a full strength Paraguay 3-0 a few months back, and they drew with Australia as well recently, and Uruguay so there is potential. If they get a cupcake group I don't see why they cannot qualify. A tougher group I'd have to bet against them.
Yes but lets be honest. Some of those teams were using the matches as run arounds. You can't really base a lot on friendlies, especially when some teams are basically in second gear. Anything can happen, but if there's no improvement in the next two years then they'll struggle. Unless as mentioned, they get a favourable draw.

[jagum]

Considering hosts get seeded then the draw will be favourable to them to some extent as they will not have one of the Worlds top 7 in their group. They will also not have another African team in the group. If the pots get drawn the same as last time they will end up with a group that looks like this

South Africa
unseeded Euro team
South American team
Asian/North American team

If the pots get drawn similar to 2002 then we get

South AFrica
Unseeded Euro team
Asian Team
American team

How they end up grouping the confeds depends on who is seeded and how many teams are left over.


Could be like this :

South Africa
Grecce
Iran
Costa rica

Or like this grrrrrrrrr¨:

South Africa
England
Korea
Uruguay

[scmcbride21]

No!

[Beazley17]

Or they could use a special pot again as I pointed out there:
http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=15788095&postcount=7




South Africa
unseeded Euro team
South American team
Asian/North American team


The south american team would be pretty solid, not to hard but of course not weak. The team from North America or Asia could be anything, from weak to decent.
There is also a wide variety of European teams. It could be Netherlands, England or Croatia, but it could also be Greece or Israel.


South Africa
Unseeded Euro team
Asian Team
American team

That would be bad. The UEFA teams isn't "unseeded" in this case.

I would love fore the US to be in that group. That would be a major plus.

[memovapors10]

i hope so

[ussoccerFan12358]

Definitely.

The US team had a history of being good in the past, and already had the early pieces of the team that has gone on to have so much success in the past ten years. Remember, the US team had won the Gold Cup in 1991 by beating Mexico and Honduras. and they'd won the 1992 US Cup with wins over Portugal and Ireland and a tie vs. Italy. They had proven that they had the ability to hang with the big boys before 1994.

South Africa, on the other hand, has no such history. They did win the African Nations Cup in 1996, but have had very little success since then. They have had some recent friendly success (the aforementioned win over Paraguay, as well as a win over Canada last year), but at least part of that has to do with the very, very long travel for players flying in from their club squads. Teams will be in South Africa well before the World Cup, and will be accustomed to the time change and the climate and area well before the games.


One stat to look at is the Elo World Football rankings which I, and most others, view as more accurate than the Fifa rankings. The US went into the '94 World Cup ranked 50th in the World. South Africa is currently 93rd. That's quite a difference.

Thanks for the research and analysis. Really gives some perspective. I was still mastering the art of walking at the time, very thankful for the help!

[Robandinho]

By the way since south africa is in the southern hemisphere will the world cup be held in January which will be their summer or still be held in june?

Anyone want to answer?

[scmcbride21]

If your being serious and really don't know, the answer is June & July.