Predict the 2010 WC Qualifiers (Sept '08 Update)

[Jwaksman]

Rather than continue to post to the original thread (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=703781), I'm just going to start a new one. Most teams have played two games since the last update (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=14972582&postcount=29) in June, so there is a lot of movement. Those who enjoyed this thread the first time, keep posting your own rankings. Those who didn't enjoy this thread the first time, you probably won't like it the second time either. Without further ado:


Already Qualified (1):
South Africa

Locks (3):
United States
Argentina
Mexico

Only a sliver of a chance that they'll fail to qualify (4):
Italy
Brazil
Cameroon
England

Likely Qualifiers (5):
Paraguay
Portugal
Australia
Netherlands
Ghana

Good Chance (10):
Ivory Coast
Spain
Greece
Japan
Germany
Czech Republic
Egypt
France
South Korea
Iran

Decent Shot (25):
Ukraine
Turkey
Nigeria
Uruguay
Russia
Romania
Israel
New Zealand
Sweden
Honduras
Lithuania
Poland
Ireland
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
Morocco
Colombia
Qatar
Tunisia
Costa Rica
Belgium
Scotland
Chile
North Korea
Croatia

Don't Count Them Out (23):
Bahrain
Equador
Macedonia
Slovenia
Denmark
Canada
Angola
Bosnia
Venezuela
Serbia
Mali
Austria
Finland
Trinidad & Tobago
Guinea
Senegal
Hungary
El Salvador
Uzbekistan
Bulgaria
Zambia
Norway
UAE

Long Shots (20):
Burkina Faso
Congo DR
Libya
Peru
Jamaica
Slovakia
Algeria
Rwanda
Congo
Kenya
Guatemala
Gambia
Albania
Northern Ireland
Congo
Latvia
Montenegro
Belarus
Wales
Benin

[Michele]

Any chance you can say who went up or down since your last rankings? For instance, Romania hasn't looked one bit like a 'decent shot' in their two games so far and they play in an incredibly competitive group, so it may be hard to make up lost ground. It's also puzzling to me why Argentina and Brazil are in different groups after getting the same number of points; and both of them are ahead of Paraguay who has four points more than the two.

So I would basically care to see movements since the last ranking and a tiny bit of elaboration for some of the not-so-obvious choices.

[dethwing]

Interesting that you think Argentina (13P, +6) is more of a lock than Paraguay (17P, +10).

[Team Melli forever]

At this point I'd say that UAE qualifying is pretty much a long shot

[Jwaksman]

I'll try to go through those one at a time. I thought about coloring them or something for moving them up or down, but I had waited until late at night to put that together after all of the matches were over, and I didn't want to spend another hour color-coding everything.

As for Romania, I did drop them down. I had them at "good chance" last time, and now dropped them well down into the "decent shot" category. I don't think they deserve to be any lower, because I don't see the rest of that group running away from them. Lithuania? Austria? Serbia? I still see Romania finishing top two in that group.

As for the Argentina/Paraguay issue, remember that there are still TEN matches to go. And Argentina is 4 points behind. For one thing, I just think Argentina is a better team. In my opinion, they're the best team in CONMEBOL right now. And if you look at the schedules, they're pretty much even the rest of the way. Both teams have five home and five road matches remaining. They have played each other once, to a draw. Both play Brazil one more time (Paraguay heads there, Argentina gets them at home). The fact that Paraguay beat Brazil at home while Argentina only tied them in Brazil seems like an advantage for Paraguay, as does the draw between Argentina & Paraguay in Argentina. But Argentina also won at Colombia, while Paraguay hasn't yet played them. So, with more or less even schedules to go, and such small distance between them in the standings, I'm going with the team that I think is clearly better.

And UAE, they certainly are off to an atrocious start. But the only reason I'm not making them "long shots" yet is because of the weakness of their group. They only have to finish in third place to move onto a playoff. I could easily see them pulling ahead of North Korea and Saudi Arabia. Or Iran could revert to their form from early in the last round of qualifying. Let us not forget that North Korea just went down in the AFC Challenge Cup. And Saudi Arabia always strikes me as a schizophrenic team that can sometimes really struggle to win. I know that UAE lost to both of them at home, but they could easily beat the two of them on the road. I'm not going to count them out quite yet.

[glennaldo_sf]

At this point I'd say that UAE qualifying is pretty much a long shot

Unfortunately I have to agree with you.

You should put Australia, Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia + South Korea as likely 5 qualifiers. Those 'big 5' have dominated Asian soccer for the last decade (Aus obviously the new addition) and no one has qualified over any of them since 1990. China in 2002 doens't really count as they had none of the aforementioned Asian giants in their qualifying campaign.

And UAE, they certainly are off to an atrocious start. But the only reason I'm not making them "long shots" yet is because of the weakness of their group.

Don't agree with that.. UAE's group is actually the tougher of the two groups.. they have 3 big 5 teams (Iran, Saudi Arabia, S.Korea) in their group, the other group has only 2 (Australia, Japan). UAE lost their two easiest games, at home v N.Korea + Saudi and now have virtually no chance.

[Jwaksman]

I'm not disagreeing with the fact that Iran, Australia, Japan, Saudi Arabia and South Korea are the five favorites. That's why I have them as the five highest ranked. I'm just saying that Saudi Arabia and UAE have both been a bit schizophrenic. Remember in the last round of qualifying that UAE played far better on the road (draws at Iran and Syria, a win a Kuwait) than they were at home (losses to Syria & Iran). Obviously UAE is probably not qualifying... I'm just saying that they're good enough and pesky enough that they might be able to pull off an upset or two and get back into this. I wouldn't bet on it, but it's possible.

Remember, the teams I put them ahead of are teams like Wales. Wales isn't any better than UAE, and they have to find a way to jump over at least two of the following: Germany, Russia, Finland. That's longer odds than what UAE has to do.

[Team Melli forever]

Unfortunately I have to agree with you.

You should put Australia, Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia + South Korea as likely 5 qualifiers. Those 'big 5' have dominated Asian soccer for the last decade (Aus obviously the new addition) and no one has qualified over any of them since 1990. China in 2002 doens't really count as they had none of the aforementioned Asian giants in their qualifying campaign.

Actually I would hold off on South Korea. They didn't show anything special in their game against North Korea and honestly that was a game that North Korea deserved to win. Given their relatively poor history against teams like Iran and KSA, a slip up against UAE at home and away might prevent them from even finishing third. It's not too far fetched.


I'm not disagreeing with the fact that Iran, Australia, Japan, Saudi Arabia and South Korea are the five favorites. That's why I have them as the five highest ranked. I'm just saying that Saudi Arabia and UAE have both been a bit schizophrenic. Remember in the last round of qualifying that UAE played far better on the road (draws at Iran and Syria, a win a Kuwait) than they were at home (losses to Syria & Iran). Obviously UAE is probably not qualifying... I'm just saying that they're good enough and pesky enough that they might be able to pull off an upset or two and get back into this. I wouldn't bet on it, but it's possible.

Remember, the teams I put them ahead of are teams like Wales. Wales isn't any better than UAE, and they have to find a way to jump over at least two of the following: Germany, Russia, Finland. That's longer odds than what UAE has to do.

As an outside observer who doesn't follow Asian football closely and merely resorts to score lines I can understand where you're coming from but you have to understand that the Iran in the previous round is VERY different from the Iran in the final round. In the previous round Iran was without almost ALL their european stars, had just appointed a new coach, had an entirely new federation board members, and had virtually no friendlies or real training camp prior to the games. Frankly UAE was lucky to qualify over Syria who was just as qualified as UAE. This time things are very different with Iran but of course this is soccer and anything is possible so we'll have to wait and see but you can trust me as a passionate Asian football follower that UAE qualifying to the world cup is pretty much a shot in the dark (Very slim chance)

[Jwaksman]

As an outside observer who doesn't follow Asian football closely and merely resorts to score lines I can understand where you're coming from but you have to understand that the Iran in the previous round is VERY different from the Iran in the final round. In the previous round Iran was without almost ALL their european stars, had just appointed a new coach, had an entirely new federation board members, and had virtually no friendlies or real training camp prior to the games. Frankly UAE was lucky to qualify over Syria who was just as qualified as UAE. This time things are very different with Iran but of course this is soccer and anything is possible so we'll have to wait and see but you can trust me as a passionate Asian football follower that UAE qualifying to the world cup is pretty much a shot in the dark (Very slim chance)


Actually, I probably follow the Iranian national team more than just about anybody who isn't of Persian descent, for personal reasons that aren't important here. And the thing to remember with Iran is that their government can mess up anything. A player criticizes the team or the country? He's off the team. A relative of a leading government member is a decent player? He's on the team. The Iranian fans that I know are all constantly frustrated by what they see as politics preventing them from being the world contender that they think they should be.

So what we saw in the last round was what happens when politics runs amok with the Iranian team. So far in the final round of AFC qualifying, the team has just been playing soccer, and they've looked really good. But who's to say that politics won't rear its ugly head once again?


Besides, I really think people here are quibbling over little things. I think everybody agrees on the five favorites. I've ranked them in order of likelihood of making the World Cup as: Australia, Japan, South Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, North Korea, Bahrain, Uzbekistan, UAE... in that order. I make UAE the LEAST LIKELY team to qualify among the ten teams in the final round of AFC qualifying. So don't we all agree here?

The only disagreement seems to be that I'm not putting any asian teams in the "long shots" category. But that's just because I view AFC qualifiers as pretty fluid and wide open. I don't think any of them have the route of Wales, for example (as I explained in my previous post). But it's all semantics. We all agree that UAE is the least likely team to make the World Cup, of the ten teams remaining in AFC qualifying.

[vancity eagle]

Concacaf

Mexico
USA
Honduras

Conembol

Argentina
Paraguay
Brazil
Uruguay
Chile

CAF

Egypt
Nigeria
Ghana
Ivory Coast
Cameroon

AFC

Japan
Australia
Iran
S. Korea
S. Arabia

UEFA By far the hardest to predict

Portugal
Italy
Spain
France
Greece
Holland
Germany
England
Czech Rep.

Playoffs

Denmark
Serbia
Russia
Croatia
Ireland
Belgium
Israel
N. Ireland

[Jwaksman]

New update after the week of matches. In response to requests, I have added a little color-coding. Teams that moved up at least one group are colored blue. Teams that moved down at least one group are colored red. I'm up to 17 teams that are at least likely qualifiers, up from 13 a week ago. If we add in teams that I give a good chance, we're up to 21.

So we have 17 spots that are essentially gone. And 4 more teams that are unlikely to miss out. That leaves 11 spots that are truly wide open. As always, this is just my opinion, and I always love (constructive) criticism:


Already Qualified (1):
South Africa

Locks (4):
United States
Paraguay
Argentina
Mexico

Only a sliver of a chance that they'll fail to qualify (6):
Brazil
Australia
Cameroon
England
Spain
Italy

Likely Qualifiers (6):
Netherlands
South Korea
Nigeria
Germany
Japan
Ghana

Good Chance (4):
Ivory Coast
Portugal
Iran
Egypt

Decent Shot (24):
France
Czech Republic
Chile
Greece
Saudi Arabia
Ukraine
Honduras
Scotland
Russia
Israel
New Zealand
Romania
Morocco
Tunisia
Lithuania
Sweden
Belgium
Qatar
Switzerland
Croatia
Turkey
Poland
Uruguay
Costa Rica

Don't Count Them Out (24):
Serbia
Colombia
Ireland
Denmark
Bahrain
Hungary
Guinea
Bosnia
Equador
Bulgaria
Norway
Venezuela
Trinidad & Tobago
Slovenia
Algeria
Uzbekistan
Slovakia
Mali
North Korea
Bolivia
Finland
El Salvador
Latvia
Iceland

Long Shots (16):
Zambia
Albania
Macedonia
Burkina Faso
Wales
Peru
Kenya
Belarus
Montenegro
Benin
Gabon
Northern Ireland
Austria
Jamaica
UAE
Guatemala

[spoonman]

I think you can move Netherlands to the Only a sliver of a chance that they'll fail to qualify category

http://www.uefa.com/competitions/worldcup/standings/round=15218/group=701186.html

[jcsc]

New update after the week of matches. In Good Chance (4):
Ivory Coast
Portugal
Iran
Egypt



Portugal with the default of yesterday with Albania and lose with Denmark, both at home is in very bad position for South Africa 2010.

[Wezza]

I thought Denmark could be a bit higher? Aren't they leading their group?

[Jwaksman]

Yes, Denmark is winning Portugal's group, but there is still a long way to go. You can't discount that Portugal is just a better squad. And you've got to include Sweden in here, too. They are only two points behind Denmark.


That whole group is a mess - the only group that is messier is group 7. Denmark is winning now, but they could be in 5th after the next pair of match days. We just need to let this play out a little bit more before we annoint any of these teams.

[vancity eagle]

I think Portugal may be one of the few big casualties of 2010. They are a much better team come tournament time, but they are sometimes very poor in qualifying. They struggled many times in qualifying for the Euro 08, and in a group with Denmark and Sweden I dont think they will be able to make up for their mistakes. I am now predicting Portugal do not make it. When you cannot beat Albania at home playing a man up for half the game, you have serious problems.

[Joelzinho]

Portugal never play well when they have a man up and need to score. I have seen it coutless times. Now i do not know what to think, it IS A TERRIBLE MESS.

[Michele]

I think Denmark will at least look good until June next year. Before then, Denmark plays Malta away and Albania at home, so there are good chances (not taking anything for granted) that Denmark will have 13 points in five games going into June. Since Portugal will play Sweden at home before then, Denmark ought to have a sizable lead by then. In our last five matches, we will play Sweden twice, Portugal home, Albania away and Hungary home, so that's when we may start losing points big time. But since everything is a big mess right now as you say, I don't see much reason to put Portugal ahead of Denmark and Sweden. If we do another calculation, assuming that you should get six points against Hungary, Albania and Malta and win home/draw away against Denmark/Sweden/Portugal, the current list is as follows:

Denmark 0 (-2 for a draw in Hungary, +2 for a win in Portugal)
Sweden -4 (-2 for drawing in Albania, -2 for drawing Portugal at home)
Portugal -5 (-3 for losing at home to Denmark, -2 for drawing Albania at home)

Of course, Denmark might lose the three remaining games against Sweden and Portugal and will then not qualify, but based on games played so far, it doesn't make much sense to put Portugal above the other two.

You then argue that Portugal has a superior player pool as compred to the other two, but what does that help them when they allow Denmark to score three goals on them and fail to break down an Albanian team playing with a man down for more than half the game?

If we don't take actual performances into account, this list will look pretty stupid because there is often a big difference between perceived strength based on individual player strength and real strength based on team play.

Another thing that makes this situation look good for Denmark is the fact that they will almost surely have a decent lead going into the Sweden games and the Portugal home game. Because of this, they can play the matches knowing that a draw will be a good result, unlike their opponents.

Let me illustrate this by making another assumption: Denmark beats Albania twice, Malta away and Hungary at home. This gives us 19 points in 7 matches. Let's then add a draw against Portugal in Copenhagen and make it 20 from 8. Now let's look at Portugal and assume that they win every remaining game apart from the one in Denmark, which will end in a draw. This gives them a total of 21 points with all games played. This means that Denmark will only need to split the games against Sweden in order to finish ahead of Portugal. Similarly, Sweden can get to 19 points before the Denmark games and the remaining Portugal game, so if they split with Denmark, they need a win in Portugal in order to tie Denmark on points.

So until Portugal wins in Denmark or Denmark starts losing points against "lesser" teams, I would definitely not put Portugal ahead of Denmark; maybe on the same level if we still factor in individual player strength.

I know this is based on a lot of assumptions, but I think it gives a good illustration of the size of the hole Portugal have dug themselves into. They can still win the group by their own power unless Denmark makes a sweep against Sweden, but they can absolutely not afford anymore slip-ups and a win in Denmark also looks quite necessary. And let's remember that wins in Albania and Hungary are not easy wins, not even for Portugal.

[erick]

mexico is going to win it :D enuff said..


i really really want to c the argies not qualify

[Sagy]

Jwaksman,

I have a problem with teams that haven't started the final phase being classified as "Likely Qualifiers" or higher. For me this is a principle statement and has nothing to do with the teams in question. To get into the "likely" category you need to have at least played 25% of the games in the final phase and have done well in them. This means that: United States, Mexico, Cameroon, Nigeria and Ghana needs to be dropped to "Good Chance" or below.

You have five CAF teams (the above three plus Ivory Coast and Egypt) rated as "Good Chance" before the draw has taken place. Even if these are by far and away the best five teams in CAF, rating them this high is in my opinion not justified. After the draw I would probably agree with you on three, maybe four, of these teams, but right now there is no way to know which four. I do agree that all five are at least "Decent Shot" at this point.

Portugal has already lost 5 points at home and are effectively in 4th place (Since Sweden has a game in hand). I'm not saying that Portugal is going fail in qualifying, but rating them as "Good Chance" is way to high.

I think that right now Serbia is in a better position than Lithuania, they beat them 3:0 and played tougher games so far (@France and @Austria compared with @Romania and hosting Austria), yet you have Serbia below Lithuania.

Denmark at "Don't Count Them Out" seems low, even if they don't win the group they have a good chance at the playoff and a 50/50 chance of qualifying. Yes, they might finish third in the group, but at this point, it is less than a 50/50 proposition.

Maybe I don't understand the your definition of a "Decent Shot". For me it means 50-50 or better. If we agree to this definition, I can't see how:

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and New Zealand are "Decent Shot" when they are all going after one spot (given that you have 4 other AFC teams in higher categories).
Belgium and Turkey from UEFA group 5 are both going after a 1/2 spot (Spain is "Only a sliver of a chance that they'll fail to qualify"). Both can't have "Decent Shot" .
Ukraine and Croatia from UEFA group 6 are in the same spot as Belgium and Turkey, something has got to give.