What seed will the Rapids be in the playoffs, and do they advance?

[greenie]

6 games left, 10-9-3 with 33 points, 5th place with a game in hand over all but 3 teams.

Where do you think the Rapids will finish the season? And do you think they'll advance to the second round of the playoffs?

Remaining games:
at LA
vs SJ
at NE
vs DAL
at KC
vs KC

I'll be an optimist and say the Rapids win half, lose half, taking 3 points from the home games against KC and SJ and the road game at New England.

That'll give the Rapids 42 points on the season, and likely good for 5th or 6th... although to be honest, short of them finishing top 4 it won't matter where they finish.

Unless the Rapids begin to play some quality ball, I don't see them getting past SJ, NY, DAL or LA in the first round. If Chicago fixes their inconsistencies and makes a solid late-season run (either to win the East or finish top 4 outright), I don't see the Rapids being prepared to face them unless they too have made a similar run.

Any thoughts?

[swordking]

I think the Rapids must finish in the four spot in order for them to move on in the playoffs. If they end up without home field advantage in the first round, I don't think they can move on...

I see them finishing the last six games with 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 tie. That would be good for 43 points and it might be good enough for 4th in the playoff race.

[Mr Hanki's Throne]

If the Rapids slip to 7th, they'd have a good shot at beating Chicago.

The Rapids, overall, are a funny team to predict. The performance of the team has improved with the latest formation and player selection. The irony is the the player selection is largely without what should be their two most important players, Spencer and Mastroeni, who have been injured and suspended.

I saw The Replacements last night (gotta love DC win, even if it is fiction), and what this team has at times is heart. And they need it since Valderamma isn't a hustler. And when certain players are in the lineup, they lose their edge.

I don't think that the Rapids can beat in a three-game series the only team with starting quality at almost every position, San Jose. LA is a good match-up, since the Rapids can run around and shut down the midfield. LA would get a couple breakaways, but the Rapids should score enough goals (this isn't United or the Rapids of two years ago).

[Rapids/Arsenal Fan]

If the Rapids don't get homefield advantage in the 1st round (and it looks like they're going to have to rely on some help from other teams to make this happen), I don't think they can advance. Playing one of the top 4 (as it stands now: SJ, NY, DAL and LA) 2 games on the road is too tough for the Rapids, especially SJ who is a great team and Dallas who seems to have our number.

But who knows? Remember 1997?

[Worm Burner]

I think we still have a decent shot at 4th. I say we win at home against the Quakes, we win against the Revs on the road, and then we take the home and away from Kansas City. With this finish we will have 46 points and end up in 4th.

A win against LA or Dallas would of course definitely improve our chance of making 4th place.

Advancing will be tough, but I think the Rapids can do it. I think our best shot if we have to go on the road would be against the Burn. Even though they seem to have our number, and they killed us at the Cotton Bowl earlier this year, we only lost to them after 120 minutes in the Open Cup and we had a 5 minute lapse that lost it for us in the previous game in Denver.

[Rollins]

Wow, all this speculation...wait while you were speculating NY fell to 8th place! Now you have to start all over with a different team in the top four that we cant beat......according to you.

[greenie]

Originally posted by Rollins
Wow, all this speculation...wait while you were speculating NY fell to 8th place! Now you have to start all over with a different team in the top four that we cant beat......according to you.
Thanks so much for stating the obvious. Care to venture a guess as to my two questions -- which have to do with the future -- or would you rather sit back and take potshots with 20-20 hindsight?

Besides, I made it very clear my opinion of the Rapids against Chicago. And if the Fire keep playing like they did last night, it'll be two and out for the Rapids.

[Jeff]

Okay gang here's how it stands in the west.

SJ, 42 pts, 3 left
LA, ditto
DAL, 40 pts, 3 left
COL, 39 pts, 2 left
KC, 35 pts, 2 left

Remaining Schedules:

SJ: C-Bus, home and home w/ LA
LA: at Chi, home and home w/SJ
DAL: Metro, NE, at DC
COL: home and home w/KC
KC: home and home w/COL

5th is where COL will end up. A draw in KC wraps it up basically. COL and CHI play each other twice, so the 2nd place eastern team likely finishes 6th.

I don't see the Rapids overtaking Dallas even with two wins, seeing Dallas has the easiest remaining schedule of anybody.

[GreatZar]

I was hoping the Rapids could overtake LA Gals. The 1st tie-breaker for seed position is head-to-head (and we're even at 2-2 this year). The 2nd tie-breaker is goal difference which means we'd have to beat KC Whiz 7-0 and 7-0 in the final two games (at which point we'd win the 3rd tie break on total goals for).

*sigh*

Looks like 5th place alright.

[gschroeder]

Best case scenerio, couldn't the Rapids possible work their way up to 2nd in the West?

[Jeff]

They could, but that would likely require 2 wins, and 2 draws in the LA / KC home to home, as well as one of them losing their other match.

5th is pretty much where the Raps will be, unless either Chicago/Columbus and Metros both run the table.

[greenie]

Originally posted by Jeff
5th is where COL will end up. A draw in KC wraps it up basically. COL and CHI play each other twice, so the 2nd place eastern team likely finishes 6th.

That would be CLB and CHI playing each other twice. Inasmuch as they both have only 3 games left, it's not time to cross the Metros off the list of Eastern teams yet -- they've got 4 games left.

If the Rapids fail to gain more than 1 point from there two games with KC, there does remain the possibility, however slim, that two Eastern teams will finish higher or equal to the Rapids.

As things stand today, we lose tiebreakers with Chicago and Joisey (both goal difference) would come out ahead of Columbus (head-to-head).

That said, I still stand by my prediction of the Rapids finishing with 42 points which as Jeff points out would mean finishing in 5th.

SO... considering that the Rapids may be locked into 5th place before playing their final game at home, should they rest their most valuable starters against the Whiz here in Denver?

[Jeff]

D'oh! I got my abbreviaions confused.

Rest starters: interesting thought, but I just don't see it happening, or at least not completely.

[wcgcapone]

Originally posted by greenie
SO... considering that the Rapids may be locked into 5th place before playing their final game at home, should they rest their most valuable starters against the Whiz here in Denver?

I would actually have Spenny start, to help him get on form for the playoffs.

[Jeff]

The only scenarios I can think of that see the Raps falling below fifth are:

- losing to KC twice
- two draws with KC, Columbus and Metro win twice, tiebreakers may come into play

Basically, it's Colorado and Dallas in the first round, most likely. A Dallas win over NE ends home field chances for the most part, since I really don't see them getting less than 3 points at D.C. You never know though.

One Rapids win should if not will wrap up 5th at 42 points. Columbus and Chicago (if 2nd in east) can't match that, nor can KC. If Metro wins out, they get 2 seed at 44.

Sorry if I rambled.

[gschroeder]

Ok so here is my big question. Will there be a home playoff game for the Rapids? I'm going to buy a tickets tomorrow and I'm getting my hopes up here but it still sounds like they could possibly be in dallas for the first round.

[Jasonma]

Originally posted by gschroeder
Ok so here is my big question. Will there be a home playoff game for the Rapids? I'm going to buy a tickets tomorrow and I'm getting my hopes up here but it still sounds like they could possibly be in dallas for the first round.

EVERY playoff team is guarenteed at least one home playoff game. Game 1 of the playoff series is at the higher ranked team, Game 2 at the lower ranked team and Game 3, if needed, at the higher ranked team. Most likely, right now, Colorado will host Dallas in Game 2.

[Soccerholic]

I think the Rapids have a reasonable chance of passing Dallas. Dallas has to play New England, who is fighting for the last playoff spot, while Colorado has two games against KC, whom they've played well this year (1 win, 1 draw). They really need to pass Dallas, as both teams play much better at home, and I think the home field advantage in this series will be huge.

[Jeff]

If I remember the stadium announcement correctly, Wed. the 25 and Sat. the 28th would likely be the first two matches. i.e. Wed. if a fourth seed, Sat. if a fifth.

[greenie]

Originally posted by Jeff
The only scenarios I can think of that see the Raps falling below fifth are:

- losing to KC twice
- two draws with KC, Columbus and Metro win twice, tiebreakers may come into play

I hate to say it, but I wouldn't put it past the Rapids to drop all 6 against KC. I expect they'll get at least 3, but as much as the team has changed this year I wouldn't be at all surprised.

If the Rapids fail to earn 42 points, the Metros may just pass right by them. 3 games remaining -- DC twice and New England -- and I won't be surprised to see the Mutts with at least 41 points, especially if Nueva Inglaterra's season is ended before that final game.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Chicago win twice to close the season -- both games against Columbus -- which, if the Rapids earn only 1 (or zero) points, would put Chicago ahead as well.

Fifth place does appear highly likely for the Rapids, but sixth is not as far-flung as it seems. For that matter neither if fourth, especially with Dallas losing 4 of their last 5 games (including the Open Cup).