Group B Advancement Scenarios

[schrutebuck]

This is just a copy of a thread in the USYNT forum, but I figured it would be convenient to have in the official Group B forum also. Credit for the work can be given to both giffenbone and I, because we each separately figured these scenarios out.


Regulations of the Olympic Football Tournaments

http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tour...fen%5f6198.pdf (http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/competition/regulations%5folympics%5fbeijing%5f2008%5fen%5f6198.pdf)

Group tiebreakers, which are on pg. 31 of the rules, are:

1. total points
2. goal difference
3. goals scored

if two or more teams are still deadlocked

4. most points from matches involving the tied teams
5. greatest goal difference from matches involving the tied teams
6. most goals scored in matches involving the tied teams
7. fair play system (least yellow and red cards)
8. drawings

The following scenarios can occur in the final games.

US wins/Netherlands wins - US/Netherlands advances
US wins/Netherlands ties - US/Nigeria advance
US wins/Netherlands loses - US/Nigeria advance

US ties/Netherlands wins - nightmare scenario+
US ties/Netherlands ties - US/Nigeria advance
US ties/Netherlands loses - US/Nigeria advance

US loses/Netherlands wins - Nigeria/Netherlands advance
US loses/Netherlands ties - Nigeria/US advance
US loses/Netherlands loses - Nigeria/US advance



+This outcome which has Netherlands/Nigeria/US on 5 points has the following possibilities:

*Netherlands win by multiple goals or 1 goal by a score of 2-1, 3-2, etc. - Netherlands/US advance
*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie of 0-0 - US/Netherlands advance, because of identical group stats FIFA fair play system determines 1st and 2nd
*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie of 1-1 - US/Netherlands advance
*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie of 2-2 - US advances, FIFA fair play system decides 2nd between Nigeria/Netherlands

*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie of 3-3 or more - US/Nigeria advance

Netherlands - has to win to advance, can only win the group if US/Nigeria ends up as a tie and they beat Japan by specific margins
Nigeria - if they win US/Nigeria they get first, other outcomes with Nigeria advancing basically require a loss or tie for Netherlands
US - eliminated only with loss and Netherlands victory over Japan, nearly guaranteed first unless Nigeria game ends up a loss
Japan - hopefully goes all out against Netherlands

[Maruti]

I'm not sure the nightmare scenario is accurate. If for egzample Nigeria and USA tie 3:3 and Holland win 2:1 than Nigeria has a goal ratio of 5:4, USA of 6:5 and Holland of 4:3. Hence Nigeria and USA advance.

If Nigeria ties high with the USA then Holland need to score at least the same amount of goals as Nigeria and win (or win by at least 2 goals).

[TC4life]

interesting

[schrutebuck]

I'm not sure the nightmare scenario is accurate. If for egzample Nigeria and USA tie 3:3 and Holland win 2:1 than Nigeria has a goal ratio of 5:4, USA of 6:5 and Holland of 4:3. Hence Nigeria and USA advance.

If Nigeria ties high with the USA then Holland need to score at least the same amount of goals as Nigeria and win (or win by at least 2 goals).

Thanks for the catch :)

This is my attempt at fixing it. I'm almost certain there are mistakes but my brain needs a break.

Nightmare Scenario

*Netherlands wins by multiple goals, US/Nigeria tie by any score - Netherlands/US advance
*Netherlands wins by one goal margin, US/Nigeria tie with a final score at least two goals less than Netherlands (example NED/J@P 3-2, USA/NIG 1-1) - Netherlands/US advance
*Netherlands wins by one goal margin, US/Nigeria tie with a final score one goal less than Netherlands (example NED/J@P 3-2, USA/NIG 2-2) - US/Netherlands advance
*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie 0-0 - US/Netherlands advance, because of identical group stats FIFA fair play system determines 1st and 2nd
*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie 1-1 - US/Netherlands advance due to most goals scored in games among the three teams
*Netherlands 2-1 win, US/Nigeria tie 2-2 - US advances, because of identical Nigeria/Netherlands group stats FIFA fair play system determines 2nd and 3rd
*Netherlands wins by one goal margin at a higher score than 2-1, US/Nigeria tie with a final score with equal goals scored to the Netherlands (example NED/J@P 3-2, USA/NIG 3-3) – US/Nigeria advance
*Netherlands wins by one goal margin, US/Nigeria tie with a final score at least one goal higher than Netherlands (example NED/J@P 2-1, USA/NIG 3-3) - US/Nigeria advance

[DonJuego]

What am I missing?

Any tie between the US and Nigeria leaves the US ahead of Nigeria because of goals scored. Going in the US has scored 3 goals. Nigeria 2.

So if the US wins or draws the US advances. Period.

EDIT: OK. Looks like we are on the same page now.

[schrutebuck]

To summarize, if the nightmare scenario occurs:

US can finish 1st or 2nd
Nigeria can finish 2nd or 3rd
Netherlands can finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd

[DonJuego]

Just a thought -- but how big is Japan's goal in the last 15 minutes against Nigeria?

Without that goal Nigeria would lead the group and would advance over the USA if we draw Wednesday.

[johan neeskens]

All I know is that the Dutch go through if they beat Japan with a two goal difference.

[EdsonArantes]

All I know is that the Dutch go through if they beat Japan with a two goal difference.

No. Dutch do not control their own destiny. They must win, then it also depends on the outcome of Nigeria - USA.

[EvanJ]

No. Dutch do not control their own destiny. They must win, then it also depends on the outcome of Nigeria - USA.

They do not control their own destiny in terms of simply needing a win, but they advance with a win by two or more goals.
In a group with this format, the most points a third place team can possibly have is 6 if three countries have two wins and one loss and the fourth country loses all three. After the United States won and the other game was a draw on the first matchday, that meant that any country with 6 or more points would advance. This makes me want to look up for the last three World Cups since the field expanded to 32 how many teams had a chance to clinch advancement on the second group stage matchday and how many of those teams advanced on the second matchday, advanced on the third matchday, and did not advance.

[abbey]

The plot has thickened. That last gasp goal against the US may have signaled a death knell and put a new wrinkle against the US advancing. Because the US only needs a draw to qualify, I see the US in a defensive shell with occasional counter against the physical and fleet footed Nigerians.

Whoever scores first in this game will book a ticket to face CIV. Predicting the outcome of this game is difficult, but I don’t fancy US chance against an improved Nigerian team.

[FW__]

The plot has thickened. That last gasp goal against the US may have signaled a death knell and put a new wrinkle against the US advancing. Because the US only needs a draw to qualify, I see the US in a defensive shell with occasional counter against the physical and fleet footed Nigerians.

Whoever scores first in this game will book a ticket to face CIV. Predicting the outcome of this game is difficult, but I don’t fancy US chance against an improved Nigerian team.

I don't agree, at least I don't think the US will do that. Or at least they won't if they're smart. Play for the tie and they'll probably lose. Hopefully Nowak realizes that.

[charleslanger]

Very useful thread!

To summarize in practical terms(assuming Holland obtains necessary win):

USA--

Needs a Win OR Tie...although they sit in very precarious position-- esp. since we suspect the Nigeria game plan will resort to a misguided defensive anvil(zero goals by Nigeria guarantees advancement no matter what, Adu sitting out...).

Nigeria--

Needs a WIN, plain and simple.
Yes, they could sneak in with a Tie... BUT ALL of the following would need to occur:

A. Holland ONLY wins by 1. AND:
B. Tie MUST be high-scoring-- AT LEAST 2-2(PREFERABLY 3-3 or higher). AND:
C. MUST EQUAL(preferably OUTSCORE) Holland goal scoring that day.

Holland--

Simply needs ONLY ONE of the following in USA-Nigeria game:

A. Non-TIE... ORRRR:
B. Scoreless to Low-Scoring 1-1 TIE.

IF B does not occur, then ONE of the following is needed:

C. Beat Japan by 2 or more goals. ORRR:
D. OUTSCORE the individual sides in the Tied game.

Those of you needing a Holland Group Win(perhaps to collect on such a bet) need:

A. TIE...

AND EITHER:

B. Beat Japan by 2 or more goals. OR:

C. OUTSCORE the individual sides in the Tied game by TWO or more goals(add an extra goal to D requirement above).

PS

I LAID(bet to lose) Holland Group Win... may need to protect that bet with a USA-Nigeria TIE bet.

PPS

Should Holland only squeak by Japan, game strategies will be very interesting...& conspiracy theories will abound to no end.

[charleslanger]

The plot has thickened. That last gasp goal against the US may have signaled a death knell and put a new wrinkle against the US advancing. Because the US only needs a draw to qualify, I see the US in a defensive shell with occasional counter against the physical and fleet footed Nigerians.

Whoever scores first in this game will book a ticket to face CIV. Predicting the outcome of this game is difficult, but I don’t fancy US chance against an improved Nigerian team.

I don't agree, at least I don't think the US will do that. Or at least they won't if they're smart. Play for the tie and they'll probably lose. Hopefully Nowak realizes that.

I agree with both of you.

The best chance my US side has vs Nigeria... and more importantly-- this tournament and subsequent entry into Elite World status(no way FIFA #8 world ranking is even remotely correct) is to get the offense going & attack a lot more.
We need to the get those who are demonstrating good speed / offense / finishing play in crunch time(includes some of our defensemen) to get used to playing with each other.
We need to immediately give more time to those who suddenly come in and produce a spark... instead of keeping them as subs to non-producing starters(we do this to a fault, even when they're injured)...who don't finish plays / seldom score / commit mistakes & questionable fouls / don't produce @ crunch time.

How we play Nigeria is the fork in the road of US Soccer's future-- we can fall into the trap / return to the tired old days of holding most players back, w/ occasional long kicks downfield in hopes of getting lucky.
We can continue deluding ourselves after beating inferior teams and playing fairly even with superior teams in meaningless frinedlies.

The last part of the Holland game is blatantly telling us what we need to improve.

1. We lost the Win because we didn't play enough offense late.

2. That late blown breakaway that should've resulted in third goal is telling us to try other things like shaking up the lineup-- demote & promote immediately: give more playing time to other combos of players... put Altidore in there..... try offensive tweaks such as three forwards... allow defensemen & midfielders with proven attacking skills to come up more-- Edu, Orozco, Wynne come to mind...

[abbey]

The game will be decided on the strength of US’ defense and Nigeria’s attack.

To advance, the US only needs a tie. The US must play a controlled and low-tempo game and frustrate Nigeria's attack. To achieve this, they must keep the ball on the GROUND and play possessive or keep-away soccer while occasionally taking their chances at quick counters. If they hold on to the ball effectively they WILL win the game.

Nigeria knows they have a great chance of advancing with a win and cannot depend on a tie or loss by the Dutch against Japan. The absence of Bradley as the US' holding midfielder is huge. Nigeria will try to capitalize by MIXING short and long passes in attempts to wear down the US defense and force a high-tempo game. Nigeria's attacking strength lies with their wingers Osaze and/or Obinna. If the US' backs are susceptible to these attacks, Nigeria WILL win.

[schrutebuck]

Anything can happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if Japan came up big against the Dutch, rendering all of this speculation irrelevant. The Japanese haven't played too badly so far while the Dutch haven't impressed.

[FW__]

If the US bunkers and plays for a tie they will lose. I'm not saying the US should go all out and attack like they need to win by 4 goals but they shouldn't change their gameplan just because of the result they need. The US needs to keep possession but not play to tie. If the US sits back, bunkers and waits for the right time to counter that time might never come or it might come with the US down 2-0. Take it to the Nigerians from the start, especially since they have 2 defenders out.

[scotch17]

Anything can happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if Japan came up big against the Dutch, rendering all of this speculation irrelevant. The Japanese haven't played too badly so far while the Dutch haven't impressed.

2 of our best players are injured and we've been dire in front of goal. So I'm not really counting on it.

[Sagy]

No. Dutch do not control their own destiny. They must win, then it also depends on the outcome of Nigeria - USA.

I think that this is wrong, they do control their own destiny.

If they win by 2 goals they are through with 5 points:
1st place if US & Nigeria tie (1st tie breaker is goal difference, they will be +2 while the other two are +1).
2nd if the US - Nigeria has a winner since the loser of that game will only have 4 points.


In case of a 1 goal Netherlands win, the fun begins.