EPL Yo-yo Teams

[Leeds92]

Given the fact that many teams coming into the EPL are relegated after one season (Derby, Watford etc), interested to know what people think of the chances for this years new boys WBA, Stoke and Hull.

Also for the stats people what is the percentage of teams that have stayed up (EPL only) for more than one season, breaking this down further to how many of these are the Championship winner, runner up or play off winner.

[EvanJ]

I once asked and was told that teams promoted to the EPL have about a 50 percent chance of being releagted after one year. Here's some recent information:

2006-2007 League Championship (hereafter LC): Sunderland (1st) stayed up after the 2007-2008 EPL and Birmingham City (2nd) and Derby County (3rd) were relegated). The three of them finished in the same order in the EPL as in the previous year's LC.

2005-2006 LC: Same story as the next year. The three teams that were promoted to the EPL (Reading, Sheffield United, and Watford) finished in the same order both years and two of them got relegated.

2004-2005 LC: Sunderland (LC 1st) finished last in the next year's EPL (they are a yo-yo team), Wigan Athletic (LC 2nd) and West Ham United (LC 6th) not only stayed up but finished in the top half of the EPL

2003-2004 LC: Norwich (LC 1st) and Crystal Palace (LC 6th) were relegated and West Brom (LC 2nd) stayed. There was a good battle at the bottom a sthe bottom four teams finished with 34, 33, 33, and 32 points. Southampton was last and the three newly promoted teams were 17th, 18th, and 19th.

So 7 of the 12 most recent promotions have resulted in relegation the next year.

[act smiley]

50% is a bit optimistic - usually 2 out of the 3 go back down, which would show up a bit stronger if you go back a couple more years.

[EvanJ]

Continuing from my earlier post:

2002-2003 LC: Portsmouth (LC 1st, stayed after the next season), Leicester (LC 2nd, relegated), and Wolverhampton (LC 5th, relegated) were promoted to the 2003-2004 EPL.

2001-2002 LC: West Brom finished second in LC and was relegated after the 2002-2003 EPL, Manchester City finished first in LC and stayed in the EPL, and Birmingham City finished fifth in LC and stayed in the EPL.

So 10 of the 18 most recent promotions have resulted in relegation the next year.

[RichardL]

Go back 20 years or so, and only 1 team in 10 went straight back down.

[lanman]

Go back 20 years or so, and only 1 team in 10 went straight back down.

A bit longer than 20 years, but the difference can clearly be seen from the start of the Premier League

1951-1960 2 out of 20 teams went straight back down
1961-1970 3 out of 20
1971-1980 4 out of 26
1981-1990 5 out of 29
1991-2000 14 out of 30 (1 out of 7 before the Premier League started)
2001-2008 11 out of 24

Since start of Premier League in 1992/93 24 out of 47 teams have been relegated in their first year (and only in 2002 did all promoted teams survive). From 1951 to 1992 15 out of 102 teams lasted just one season (and only in 1975 were more than one promoted team relegated).

[johno]

I know it sounds blasphemous - but I think there should be a requirement for the established premier league clubs to help the three promotees. Of players who were not injured for more than half the season but failed to start more than 10 league matches - the promotees should be able to loan them at will, but no more than 1 from a team. I think that would ensure that teams with uber squads either keep their roster trim (evening out things) or they help those who come up who've got to build a new team bar 1 or 2 players and who will not have depth throughout the course of the season.

[imasyko]

A bit longer than 20 years, but the difference can clearly be seen from the start of the Premier League

1951-1960 2 out of 20 teams went straight back down
1961-1970 3 out of 20
1971-1980 4 out of 26
1981-1990 5 out of 29
1991-2000 14 out of 30 (1 out of 7 before the Premier League started)
2001-2008 11 out of 24

Since start of Premier League in 1992/93 24 out of 47 teams have been relegated in their first year (and only in 2002 did all promoted teams survive). From 1951 to 1992 15 out of 102 teams lasted just one season (and only in 1975 were more than one promoted team relegated).

The impact of $$$, free player movement (Bosman) or both? Seems like teams used to be able to build a team and have a reasonable expectation of keeping their players, only selling when it suited them. Now...?

[RichardL]

The impact of $$$, free player movement (Bosman) or both? Seems like teams used to be able to build a team and have a reasonable expectation of keeping their players, only selling when it suited them. Now...?
TV money.

The premier league was formed because the top division clubs didn't want to share TV money with the rest. At the time the sums involved weren't that great, but now a premier league club's tv money alone dwarfs what a championship club can make in total revenue

[Big Soccer Member]

I still firmly believe that experienced managers are enough to keep a team up. For Kevin Keegan's Man City it meant the possibility to attract big name players like Anelka and Schmeichel, keeping them up. Other managers with Prem experience normally survive relegation. Graham Souness (Blackburn), Harry Redknapp (Pompey), Steve Coppell (Reading) and Bryan Robson (WBA) are recent examples. Some teams can only blame themselves for relegation. They keep an out of depth manager (Derby), rely on Championship battlers (Derby) and sign no players (Derby). Relegation can be avoided if they right decisions are made as there are normally a couple of poor existing Premier League teams who's squads deserve the drop.

[RichardL]

I still firmly believe that experienced managers are enough to keep a team up. For Kevin Keegan's Man City it meant the possibility to attract big name players like Anelka and Schmeichel, keeping them up. Other managers with Prem experience normally survive relegation. Graham Souness (Blackburn), Harry Redknapp (Pompey), Steve Coppell (Reading) and Bryan Robson (WBA) are recent examples. Some teams can only blame themselves for relegation. They keep an out of depth manager (Derby), rely on Championship battlers (Derby) and sign no players (Derby). Relegation can be avoided if they right decisions are made as there are normally a couple of poor existing Premier League teams who's squads deserve the drop.
well either managers have suddenly mainly become rubbish since the premiership formed, or something else is going on.

The fact is, in the past it was possible to get promoted and stay up with more or less the same team. That would be an exceptional achievement these days. For most clubs, you either have to spend a fortune or get lucky with one of the existing clubs nosediving.