Relegation Battle

[Laudy]

We now find ourselves in a battle with Bolton and Birmingham for the last two spots in the premiership. Fulham also has an outside shot but they are at home against Liverpool which should end any chance they have to remain in the premiership.

If we are lucky we may be able to remain above B'ham and Bolton even with a loss to Arsenal. Bolton is away to Middlesbrough which could go either way. A win there and Bolton will have us on goal differential and if B'ham should draw or win at Villa we would find ourselves in the final relegation spot.

With the remaining schedule including games with Arsenal, Wigan, Tottenham, and Derby our fate lies in our own hands. Bolton has Middlesbrough, Tottenham, Sunderland and finish at Chelsea. B'ham has Aston Villa, Liverpool, Fulham, and Blackburn. None of the teams have an easy schedule so the last spot is really up for grabs.

There can be no more games like last weekend in order for us to avoid relegation. We had a chance to put ourselves in great position and now we are in a serious fight to remain in the premiership. As a US fan thoughts of relegation are terrifying knowing that the chance of watching any "championship" matches next season would be almost impossible.

For some reason that Derby match seems to loom on the schedule as if it will somehow determine our fate. I have a feeling that Derby would enjoy one last win and ultimately bringing another team down with them to the championship. Please someone tell me that can't possibly happen.

[rms5555]

Sorry I can't bolster your hopes. This is gonna be a fight to the finish. Like you said, all three have tough matches comming up. At minimum we have to keep the match with Arsenal within a goal. If we can make up the GD with Bolton it may make all the difference. Wigan will be still fighting to stay up so we can't count on anything there. Derby are going down obviously, but like you said they may enjoy taking someone down with them. Our best chance for another full 3 may be against Spurs. We get them at home and they are solid mid table. They have no chance for Europe and are way out of a regulation spot. We might be able to catch them coasting in the rest of the season. I think we can count on 5 points, 7 points would be a great showing. That would give up 37 to 39 points which based on the last 5 years puts us just over the mark to stay up.

[Neeto]

It is going to be a tight finish which I don't think will be settled until the final whistle on the last day of the season. One thing I like about the remaining schedule is the last day. We have Derby and Bolton have Chelsea at the Bridge. If we are above Bolton at that point it is pretty much over given Chelsea's home performances. If Bolton is ahead by a point or two, we can definitely go for that win despite of our away performance. Ultimately, I think 1 win will save us from the drop.

[Derrida]

Our best chance for another full 3 may be against Spurs. We get them at home and they are solid mid table. They have no chance for Europe and are way out of a regulation spot.

They are already in Europe through the Carling Cup. Doesn't change the point, though.

[rms5555]

Right, duh on me.

[Pablo Chicago]

Here are the pertinent fixtures for this week:

Bolton v Sunderland
Fulham v Birmingham
Reading v Spurs
Boro v Portsmouth

Here are the pertinent fixtures for next week:

Boro v ManC
Birmingham v Blackburn
Chelsea v Bolton
Derby v Reading
Portsmouth v Fulham

Several possible scenarios. I wouldn't be surprised to see Reading in the drop zone next week, but at the end of the season, I think it'll be Fulham and Birmingham joining Derby.

[RichardL]

If we lose on Saturday and Bolton win then we are all but relegated.

We won't be able to catch Bolton due to goal difference, and we'll be behind Birmingham or Fulham. Birmingham have a very winnable home game v Blackburn, which they might only need to draw to stay above us. Fulham (should they beat Birmingham and go above us) are away to Portsmouth - normally a tricky game, but with the cup final a week away, I'd expect Portsmouth to pretty much field a reserve team in that match.

If we win then barring the unthinkable happening at Derby, we are all but safe.

[Laudy]

After today's loss here is how things stand. Fulham is now out of relegation based on goal differential. Wei each have 33 points and Birmingham has 32. Bolton is away at Sunderland now and if they lose they will remain at 33 points and be up on us by goal differential as well. That would provide us with the best opportunity to avoid relegation.

Here is the best scenario, we need Bolton to lose today and Chelsea to win on Monday. That gives Chelsea a reason to play next week against Bolton as they will still be in the championship hunt. Chelsea hasn't lost at home since who knows so that is a huge advantage for us.

Fulham are away to Portsmouth which could go either way and Birmingham is at home against Blackburn. If we lose we are relegated but if Fulham and Birmingham lose we can stay up with a win or draw.

Here we go Sunderland, here we go.

[The Biscuitman]

Can't see us getting a win at Derby to be honest.

We are gone

[Laudy]

With a Bolton win now our only hope is a win at Derby and a Fulham loss or draw. I believe a win at Derby will be very tough and we very well could be relegated.

Either way changes will have to be made in order for this team to move forward. I'm 100% in Coppell anymore after these last few games. His decisions have not made sense and his loyalty to certain players while admirable may have cost us the premiership.

[whipsmart13]

With a Bolton win now our only hope is a win at Derby and a Fulham loss or draw. I believe a win at Derby will be very tough and we very well could be relegated.

Either way changes will have to be made in order for this team to move forward. I'm 100% in Coppell anymore after these last few games. His decisions have not made sense and his loyalty to certain players while admirable may have cost us the premiership.

Coppell's on the field management this season has been poor. Throughout the season, he's done very little to manage the roster and to has continue to play the same old folks that keep getting the same old results. The midfield play all season has been poor at best and we've done nothing but try to play "long ball" to strikers that are overmatched without creative service from either the wings or with throughballs from the midfield.

However, the person that should be canned at the end of the season is the person that decided to NOT spend the money to upgrade the team. If that is Coppell, he needs to go. Every other team used the transfer window to get better except us. Poor, poor, poor.

[lestat2x]

To be fair to Coppell I don't think he realized the players he had last year would suddenly curdle like month old milk. For example every time Lita got the ball in yesterdays game in the box he would shoot despite having no angle whatsoever. Yesterday's game epitomized at least the second half of this season: 110% effort for only a part of the game and the rest of the game completely forgetting how to play.

The lack of a right winger should have been addressed in the transfer window, but then again we don't know how much money was available to Coppell. Having Seol helped because he was a right midfielder and it also made the fact that we didn't have a real left winger (Convey being injured).

If Reading do go down it gives us a chance to offload some of the uninterested players, give youngsters an opportunity, and bring in some n00bs. Coppell might not stay if Reading drop and for all he's done he doesn't need to prove himself to anyone.

[TheLostUniversity]

This has been a very very disheartening year. What is most disappointing,for me, is not that Reading is likely to be relegated [after all, it was always going to be a challenge for this club] but that it DESERVES to be. By that, I mean that a team which played beautiful and cohesive football to get to the Prem, and played beautiful and cohesive football throughout its first year in the Prem, has degenerated in a few short months into a side which plays the most pedestrian "hustle&longball in the Championship" style you would not want to imagine. And it has fallen apart into the most stupid of petty bickering.
How has it come to be?
First, I do not blame Coppell [yet, at least]. It was his vision of how to play, his choice of starting personnel, which created the lovely field team of the last two years.
Second, I do blame whoever in administration, or perhaps it came directly from the ownership, who refused to support properly the acquisition of new quality players or retain those who wished to leave for higher paying pastures. I do resent Sidwell leaving, taking cash for the glory of squatting on the reserves at Chelsea [:rolleyes:]. But I resent even more the administration refusing to recognize that his role on the team was vital enough, at least for this second season, to pay him a salary commensurate to what the market was setting. Losing Sid hurt badly, and did so not just because the key to the midfield was lost but because it signalled to all others on the team that the Bosses were unwilling to do what must be done to seriously ply through the Prem season. All those who had hoped Reading could be at least like Man City or Blackburn, reasonable contenders for top half of the League and a Euro spot, were thoroughly disabused and lost belief. When that happened, and it happened I think early in the season, if not during the summer, Steve had a huge challenge on his side. A challenge that could only be surmounted by a strong display in the transfer window.....And what happened there, eh? I'm convinced that Steve was looking for quality newcomers then, knew he needed them, and the money simply was not made available to him..as it had not been made available over the summer.
And now? Now we are almost surely focked, and I do not know if Reading will ever [i.e. within the foreseeable multiple of years] return again to the topflight. :(
What a bloody shame, because I am convinced that with a more dedicated showing from the ownership/FO this team was on the verge of establishing a long and important presence in football.:mad:

[TheLostUniversity]

My point about Coppell, then, is not that I excuse him for how the team has played. It is that I think he has been terribly handicapped by a ownership/management that is everything about thrift and nothing about football. A FO that was too blind to realize that a little serious investment, at this moment, could reshape Reading's future in great ways [not only in football, but financially as well]. Steve, I'm sure, knew this. And, until evidence arises as to otherwise, I am convinced it was the leadership of the club which undid the hope for this.
In short, Steve Coppell with Reading is/was in the same sorry position as Steve Nicol with New England. A highly gifted manager eking out superior results, with limited talent, while burdened by indifferent/obtuse superiors who saw investment only as risk and cost-cutting only as a benefit.:rolleyes:

[rms5555]

I thought that it was very unfair of Keith Costigan to say on Saturday during the post game that Coppel had money to spend in the summer and winter and didn't. I don't remember Madjeski comming out and saying that he was going to spend and Coppel could go do what he wanted. I do remember Coppel saying that if he really wanted to he could probably go on bended knee to the chairman and get the funds for a big player. Coppell also felt that getting just one big player may break up the locker room.

So what is the truth? Did Coppell leave money unspent?

I would have to say that he probably didn't. I say this because the chairman has not said anything about it. If Madjeski went to Coppell and said, here is my check book, do what you must and then didn't and put us where we are know, I would have to imaging that Madjeski whould have come out by know.

Maybe Coppell could have spent on one player and maybe that would have made the difference, but I don't think that he had a open check book and he obviously felt that one big player wouldn't have fit in with the team as it stood.

Also, how could he have predicted that everyone of his strikers would go dry all season long. Particullarly when they got Kitson back. He had to be thinking that either Kitson, Doyle or Lita would start putting them in at some point. And also that Long whould start to come along. Not one of them did anything all season.

Personally I blame Madjeski. If he doens't have the monsy to spend, or doesn't want to spend it he should have been more proactive to try to sell the club.

[RichardL]

I thought that it was very unfair of Keith Costigan to say on Saturday during the post game that Coppel had money to spend in the summer and winter and didn't. I don't remember Madjeski comming out and saying that he was going to spend and Coppel could go do what he wanted. I do remember Coppel saying that if he really wanted to he could probably go on bended knee to the chairman and get the funds for a big player. Coppell also felt that getting just one big player may break up the locker room.

So what is the truth? Did Coppell leave money unspent?
Coppell has admitted that he chose not to buy. It was a decision backed by the rest of the management team. I bumped into Kevin Dillon on a train around this time last year and he said that the feeling was that players such as Gunnarson should be given a chance to prove themselves.

What isn't known is how much money was available, or if there were even potential signings lined up. It's one thing to turn down an available player who could make an impact, and another to be just be unable to find someone they think is worth getting in, that they think they could bring in.

Coppell has also been critical of the transfer window system as well, and doesn't like it. He feels that it forces clubs to gamble either on signing players that they either end up not needing or turn out to be panic buys, or gamble by not bringing players in, and risk being left short.


Also, how could he have predicted that everyone of his strikers would go dry all season long. Particullarly when they got Kitson back. He had to be thinking that either Kitson, Doyle or Lita would start putting them in at some point. And also that Long whould start to come along. Not one of them did anything all season.

I don't really blame the strikers. The service to them has been non-existent over the last few months, both in open play and from set-pieces.

[Pablo Chicago]

There will be plenty of time to point fingers at the end of the season. We haven't been relegated yet.

The relegation odds are against us. The best relegation odds I found have us at 8/13, which means bet365 thinks there is a 61.9% probability that Reading will be relegated.

Fulham's last few matches indicate they are willing and able to do whatever it takes to stay in the Prem, including win on the road (most recently against us and Man City). However, their odds of being relegated are almost as bad as ours (4/6 = 60% probability).

We need a little help from Portsmouth whose recent run of form has been almost as bad as ours. They've dropped 3 straight to Man City, Blackburn and Boro. Anyone know when was the last time Portsmouth dropped 4 straight? The odds of a Fulham win are currently at 5/4 (44.44% probability).

The odds of an away win at Derby are currently 8/15. That means there is a 65.22% probability that Reading will win. However, while Derby hasn't won since I can't remember, they have put to ball in the back of the net recently (2 against Arsenal and 1 against Blackburn) and we all know too well that Reading hasn't scored a goal in their last 6.

[rms5555]

Coppell has admitted that he chose not to buy. It was a decision backed by the rest of the management team. I bumped into Kevin Dillon on a train around this time last year and he said that the feeling was that players such as Gunnarson should be given a chance to prove themselves.

Yeah I read a article right after I wrote this that stated that very thing.

What isn't known is how much money was available, or if there were even potential signings lined up. It's one thing to turn down an available player who could make an impact, and another to be just be unable to find someone they think is worth getting in, that they think they could bring in.

I don't think they even inquired to players that were known to be worth more that 2 million.

Coppell has also been critical of the transfer window system as well, and doesn't like it. He feels that it forces clubs to gamble either on signing players that they either end up not needing or turn out to be panic buys, or gamble by not bringing players in, and risk being left short.

I think that we have proven that you have to spend if you really want to stay up. Last year was a fluke.

I don't really blame the strikers. The service to them has been non-existent over the last few months, both in open play and from set-pieces.

That is true, but they also didn't do much with what they were given. And to me they really didn't seem commited to getting stuck in.

[RichardL]

I don't think they even inquired to players that were known to be worth more that 2 million.

we did sign two players for more than that, and were supposed to have bid £4 million for John Mensah, but I doubt we actively looked at players costing more than that.


I think that we have proven that you have to spend if you really want to stay up. Last year was a fluke.
we went up with a very good team by championship standards. Typically teams with a high 90s points tally or above tend to be OK the following year.

The team has to evolve though, and we failed hugely on that front.


That is true, but they also didn't do much with what they were given. And to me they really didn't seem commited to getting stuck in.
so much of a striker's game is about confidence. If you are only getting one or two chances in a match instead of three or four, and you haven't scored for a while, you tend to take too long over everything in an effort to get it just right (or just slash wildly at anything in hope rather than expectation).

Far too often the strikers have been running out of position to try and create the chances other should be creating, and the result is that there's nobody in the box to be on the end of the balls going in.

[tom12]

As far as money goes, I know they made a bid for Altidore in the winter window that was ultimately rejected, i don't know whether or not the offer was just too low or Altidore wasn't interested but clearly i think that offer had to of been for atleast 3 million pounds.