The EPL without relegation

[Makandal]

A guest on FFF a couple weeks ago, was talking about football and business and how he thinks there might come a time in the near future where the Premiership League will no longer have relegation and become like the NBA and the NFL where teams might get in through expansion franchises. What do you guys think about that? Do you see that happening? What would be your reaction if it were to come true?

[RichardL]

Let's just say it would be rather unpopular.

It's a fairly stereotypical idea from an American point of view, where the objective of a league is often viewed as making a profit. There's an inability to understand why people would want a system like exists currently, coupled with a belief that the American system is the natural progression of how professional sports evolve.

In truth, there isn't sign of any movement towards going to a US style closed shop. The only way you'd be likely to see it would be if there was a breakaway european league.

[canadianscraggledog]

This will never happen. Football has its own ways which are very different from American sports. No club would ever agree to this, as there would not be any incentive for clubs in lower divisions to continue. The whole point of the division setup is to promote competition and give the little clubs the opportunity to grow and move up the table through the divisions.

[Makandal]

For the life of me I can't remember the name of the gentleman but he was british, not american. One of the reason he says is that the new owners coming into the EPL only care about the bottom line: profit. And when there's more of those owners in the Premiership, it's likely that they will not want to have a system like the relegation system threatening their investment.

As far as lower division clubs not agreeing with this, if (and imo that's a big if) it's brought to the table I do not think the lower clubs would have much to say in this, whether they like it or not. After all, the lower clubs couldn't stop the major clubs from forming the Premier League as we know it now a few decades ago. Remember the Premier League is an independent corporation from the Football League.

[BlackburnRover]

I think they'd find that their bottom line would eventually suffer. Many match-going fans would take their support and cash to another football club rather than a franchise. Just look at the response to the relatively minor changes for game 39.

Plus their "product" would suffer, could you imagine last Saturday without relegation. It would have been largely pointless, but as it was there were a lot of important games.

Maybe in a breakaway Euro League, but not with the Premier League closing its doors.

[Beau Dure]

Let's just say it would be rather unpopular.

It's a fairly stereotypical idea from an American point of view, where the objective of a league is often viewed as making a profit. There's an inability to understand why people would want a system like exists currently, coupled with a belief that the American system is the natural progression of how professional sports evolve.

In truth, there isn't sign of any movement towards going to a US style closed shop. The only way you'd be likely to see it would be if there was a breakaway european league.

But Richard, haven't we heard some legitimate discussion of this among UK pundits, players and so forth? I don't think it's anything Americans are trying to push. Just a couple of business analysts and a handful of people in the game wondering if today's financial realities (in other words, the massive amounts of money won or lost by surviving or falling) make it impractical to carry on with promotion/relegation at that level.

Not that I hope it'll happen that way -- certainly not. But I think there's a legitimate concern that'll have to be addressed before we have more Leeds and Gretnas.

We'll need to have some creative thinking to save pro/rel. Could be some financial help to make the Championship less of a shock to the bottom line, or it could be a two-tier Premiership as I've heard about in the past.

All that said -- yes, I would think a breakaway Euro league would be more of a threat. And to head that off, we may need some creative thinking as well.

[RichardL]

For the life of me I can't remember the name of the gentleman but he was british, not american. One of the reason he says is that the new owners coming into the EPL only care about the bottom line: profit. And when there's more of those owners in the Premiership, it's likely that they will not want to have a system like the relegation system threatening their investment..
The owners are buying the bigger clubs. The likes of Liverpool and Man Utd don't have to worry about going down. They'd also have the most to lose if revenue sharing came in.

But Richard, haven't we heard some legitimate discussion of this among UK pundits, players and so forth?
No. None.

There's been floated suggestions of the possibility of some kind of wage cap, but no serious discussion. The "problem" it's been mentioned with respect to has always been the gap between the big 4 and the rest. Ending pro/rel, on it's own, won't do anything to address that problem. Spurs' problems, for example, are not a result of them having to play Bristol Rovers and Mansfield for a season in the mid 1970s.

But I really can't think of a single article anywhere even suggesting scrapping pro/rel. Clearly I've never read every article that's been written, but as an idea, it doesn't seem to have even be considered by anyone.


Not that I hope it'll happen that way -- certainly not. But I think there's a legitimate concern that'll have to be addressed before we have more Leeds and Gretnas.

Leeds' problems were not caused by them getting relegated. That was the symptom of their problems, not the cause. Leeds made a stupid financial gamble that didn't pay off, and paid the price.

Gretna have never been relegated, so their problems can't be caused by relegation. Their problem was that they had an owner who was willing to pump money in to pay for a team in far excess of what the club could generate in income. Their owner then went into hospital and is no longer capable of paying the bills. Again, that was just an unsustainable business plan causing their downfall, not the system itself.


We'll need to have some creative thinking to save pro/rel. Could be some financial help to make the Championship less of a shock to the bottom line, or it could be a two-tier Premiership as I've heard about in the past.

With regards to England, it's only the premier/championship gap that's a problem. It works absolutely fine everywhere else in all the other divisions.

The only answer to that problem lies in a more equal distribution of tv money - something which would go some way to levelling out the probems at the top as well.


All that said -- yes, I would think a breakaway Euro league would be more of a threat. And to head that off, we may need some creative thinking as well.
As long as the top clubs are making loads of money they won't be pushing too hard to end the status quo.

[chrizzah]

I think they'd find that their bottom line would eventually suffer. Many match-going fans would take their support and cash to another football club rather than a franchise. Just look at the response to the relatively minor changes for game 39.

Plus their "product" would suffer, could you imagine last Saturday without relegation. It would have been largely pointless, but as it was there were a lot of important games.

Maybe in a breakaway Euro League, but not with the Premier League closing its doors.

I would agree that relegation isn't going away any time soon, but I think you put too much faith in the power and pull of the traditional local. With more and more owners without lifelong attachment to clubs who view the clubs as business interests rather than clubs, more and more changes will be made based on business decisions. The 39th game was a pretty ludicrous idea, but the mere fact that the league even forwarded it is pretty worrying. If owners feel confident that prawn sandwich fans and corporate tickets can fill stadiums, unpopular decisions with traditional support can be made more easily. My own personal hunch is that at some point in the next ten years, relegation may be contracted down to two teams.

[RichardL]

For the life of me I can't remember the name of the gentleman but he was british, not american. One of the reason he says is that the new owners coming into the EPL only care about the bottom line: profit. And when there's more of those owners in the Premiership, it's likely that they will not want to have a system like the relegation system threatening their investment..well that's a different thing entirely. It's not that there's a feeling that the league might need to become a closed shop in the future, but more a worry that foreign owners might try to force it to happen.

[BlackburnRover]

I would agree that relegation isn't going away any time soon, but I think you put too much faith in the power and pull of the traditional local. With more and more owners without lifelong attachment to clubs who view the clubs as business interests rather than clubs, more and more changes will be made based on business decisions. The 39th game was a pretty ludicrous idea, but the mere fact that the league even forwarded it is pretty worrying. If owners feel confident that prawn sandwich fans and corporate tickets can fill stadiums, unpopular decisions with traditional support can be made more easily. My own personal hunch is that at some point in the next ten years, relegation may be contracted down to two teams.

I know what you're saying, I just can't see it ever happening. If the owners want to own a product in a closed league, with no fear of lost revenue there are a few leagues already in existence where they can do that. To me that's the biggest argument against this eternal question. Why would you buy into what has become the most succesful league and then try to change it? If you want protected investment look elsewhere, as I believe they would.

I promised myself that I wouldn't post on this as it goes round and round forever, and will again, and we get nowhere. It's just a matter of some people being familiar with that model of a league and some aren't. Both models work, but when you've grown up with either of them you far prefer yours. Franchise of brands as opposed to a sport's league.

Some people are horrified at the thought of lost revenue while others are horrified at the idea of a closed shop of a protected elite.

Personally I prefer the competition of a 92 team league than the relatively sterile closed league of 20 teams.

Two teams being relegated is realistic, but a far cry from becoming a closed shop.

Now I'm going ;)

[chrizzah]

Personally I prefer the competition of a 92 team league than the relatively sterile closed league of 20 teams.


Promotion/relegation is always preferable to me. As sad as it to admit, one of my favorite books from my childhood was named something like English League Tables through 1976-1977. It contained nothing but the historical standings of the football league divisions over the years. I must have read it about 15-20 times. The whole excitement was watching the rise and fall of teams over the years.

[RichardL]

I think they'd find that their bottom line would eventually suffer. Many match-going fans would take their support and cash to another football club rather than a franchise. Just look at the response to the relatively minor changes for game 39.
.To be honest, I can't see fans turning their back on their club to support someone else just because they were part of some "elite" top division.

I think it'd be almost certain that a cherry-picked top 20 would draw a bigger average than now. You might lose fans due to there being no cruch relegation six-pointers at the bottom, but they rarely pull in bigger crowds except at the very tail end of the season. Season ticket sales would negate any significant loss of crowds due to the end of season being meaningless for the struggling sides.

The lack of the threat of a drop might even result in a bit more player development and less negative play.

Unless revenues were to be shared, however, it'd be harder to see how those lower clubs would challenge the big 4. At best it'd increase the bottom end standard to be nearer the current average teams, which would count as an improvement I suppose.

Overall, those lucky 20 would probably do pretty well out of it, although it's hard to see how the influential big 4 would benefit to any degree.


The rest of the clubs would be really hard hit though. A team at the top of the championship can see their crowds rise by 50% compared to where they'd be if mid-table. Take away the prize of promotion and although you might see a rise, it wouldn't be by anywhere near as much.

It wouldn't happen overnight, but diminishing the importance of the other divisions would inevitiably result in a diminishing of support. Games would just matter less as you'd no longer have the interest that the promotion drive brings. What exactly would teams in the championship be playing for? The danger would be that in a few years you really would have a US style major/minor league split, with the premier getting 40,000+ and the championship down to 10,000 at best. The game below the premier would probably have to regionalise to have any meaning.

[Beau Dure]

But I really can't think of a single article anywhere even suggesting scrapping pro/rel. Clearly I've never read every article that's been written, but as an idea, it doesn't seem to have even be considered by anyone.

I can't recall where I saw it. I thought Shearer was playing pundit at one point, but I couldn't find the source on a quick search.

With regards to England, it's only the premier/championship gap that's a problem. It works absolutely fine everywhere else in all the other divisions.

Right. I think that's why I've heard a two-tiered Premiership idea. THAT one I managed to track down:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/teams/b/birmingham_city/3556897.stm

I could see some sense in that. Essentially, it's just giving the second level a taste of the first level's TV money, easing the drop.

[BlackburnRover]

To be honest, I can't see fans turning their back on their club to support someone else just because they were part of some "elite" top division.

It wouldn't happen overnight, but diminishing the importance of the other divisions would inevitiably result in a diminishing of support. Games would just matter less as you'd no longer have the interest that the promotion drive brings. What exactly would teams in the championship be playing for? The danger would be that in a few years you really would have a US style major/minor league split, with the premier getting 40,000+ and the championship down to 10,000 at best. The game below the premier would probably have to regionalise to have any meaning.

Don't misunderstand, I don't see it happening overnight either, with droves of fans leaving in their thousands, ripping up their season tickets in disgust. But with some of the reasons you've listed and the fact that many of the games would lose importance, like last weekend for example. There would only be a handful of meaningful games at this time of year. I think the league would lose its appeal eventually, there's only so much icing on the cake peopel can take if the cake itself's shit.

Look at all the glamour Sky and the Premier League tried to introduce to the game in the League's first couple of years, in an attempt to attract more customers. Cheerleaders, groups at half time, fireworks, sumo suits, not a single one of them carried on after being met with by derision from the fans. I just think this would be along a smilar line, itd be nice for a while then the reality of it woul sink in. No relegation battles, 50% of the season'd gams being meaningless. They'd have to cut the league well down from 20 to keep its impetus, or come up with a play-off system. In short football as we know it would change beyond recognition over time, and the appeal of the game that has drawn thousands of fans over the years would diminish. The traditional fan would lose interest eventually, I know I would. Granted, there would be a host of new fans attracted to the game but I don't think they'll have the loyalty to stay through the lean times every club has.

Who knows, it'd be an interesting experiment. But I still can't see it happening for a long while at least. All leagues evolve but this would be a complete restart. Aren't we already starting to see that owners who buy for a business interest are starting to get their fingers burned and back away?

[fernb8]

agreed with most view points here.

It sounds funny to say this but there is something about watching a relegation battle or a run for the last Promotion spot which really makes football fantastic.

Remember a few seasons ago when anyone of 4 teams could go down, what a great ending ot the season.

Even this year things may get tight if Fulham can scrap a point or two in the next few weeks.

[chrizzah]

Remember a few seasons ago when anyone of 4 teams could go down, what a great ending ot the season.


Go back a few more years and that Bradford victory over Liverpool to force Wimbledon down was about as good as it gets.

[RichardL]

Right. I think that's why I've heard a two-tiered Premiership idea. THAT one I managed to track down:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/teams/b/birmingham_city/3556897.stm

I could see some sense in that. Essentially, it's just giving the second level a taste of the first level's TV money, easing the drop.

the sad thing is you don't actually need a "premiership 2" to achieve that, but asking premiership chairmen to volutarily give money away is not likely to go down to well with them. Far too much short-term thinking going on.

A premiership 2 idea only has more potential if there were to be less clubs, maybe only 32, in these top 2 divisions.

Even then though, assuming it wasn't going to be a closed shop of 32, you are just pushing the same problem down to another level. The problem might be less, but it'd still be there. I don't think there's any way to totally eradicate that problem, however. It would also have the knock-on effect of reducing the desirability of the football league to broadcasters, although they don't get a great deal of cash as it is, as well as making the top division of the football league become the third tier, rather than the second - that wouldn't exactly help crowds at that level.

[fernb8]

Go back a few more years and that Bradford victory over Liverpool to force Wimbledon down was about as good as it gets.

remember that shyte run by Wimbledon? They looked safe and if IIRC went 10 games without a point while others around them, ie Bradford, stayed up. Relegation is a beautiful thing I tell ya, unless its your team of course.

[Gandalf The Red]

come the end of the season just as many people are glued to the relegation battle as they are the Title battle, take the relegation away the Game suffers.

[Makandal]

It's good to see the reactions in here. I would hate to see relegation eliminated from the game.
I don't think football would be the same without relegation in it, but when corporate companies with zero tie to the game are taking over teams left and right, it's not far-fetched to think that could be possible. One thing about corporations it seems that they cannot co-exist with community/tradition. I do hope this would not be the case in the EPL.

In regards to only big clubs are being bought, wasn't Derby bought by some foreign group?