Is the CONCACAF region improving?

[Kevin8833]

With the Gold Cup and Olympic Qualifying results along with the growing number of CONCACAF players going abroad, I really think the level of the non powers (US and Mexico) have improved drastically. If you look at the Gold Cup for the US every game except for El Salvador was a battle, we had to fight and won by 1 or 2 goals in every game(I especially remember barely eeking out wins against Canada, and Panama), Mexico had a tough time as well including losing one game before losing to the US in the final. Then when you look at the Olympic Qualfying we won two games by 1 goal and tied the other, Mexico failed to even advance out of the group.
Examples of teams improving by a large margin in my opinion are Canada, Guatemala, Panama, and Honduras, this also could be because I am fairly new to really following soccer on a regular basis. So would other people agree that CONCACAF is becoming a much stronger region?

[tomwilhelm]

Taken in the context of the growth of world football, I'd say Concacaf has improved, but not by huge leaps and bounds. The quality in Asia and Africa continues to improve, particularly at the 2nd and 3rd tier, much like Concacaf.

However, as you say, the competitive level has very much increased, enough so that I don't think the 3.5 spots we hold will be in jeopardy anytime soon.

Canada, Guatemala, Panama, and Honduras have all improved markedly in the 2nd tier. If 2 of them can maintain the momentum for longer than 1 cycle, that would be fantastic. With Jamaica and Costa Rica unable to reverse their downward momentum, it's good to see plenty of squads working to eclipse them. The lack of 2nd tier Caribbean nations at this point is a bit worrisome though. However...

The 3rd tier has several teams looking to plant themselves up in the 2nd tier, and several others looking to cement their place in this category and escape minnow status. Cuba and Haiti are the obvious up-sides. Guadaloupe (French though they be) and Puerto Rico (the next Haiti) have shown well recently. Developing for the long term is the hard part though, especially for these kinds of teams.

All in all though, I'm pretty happy with the state of Concacaf. Warner continues to hold us back, but we're doing ok in spite of it...

[Adam Zebrowski]

i think there are ebbs and flows within any given nation, as generational like players in sufficient numbers can raise any country beyond it's historic level...

i do agree there has been marginal improvement in concacaf, as a whole...

say honduras is on an uptick, while costa rica on the down turn...

still honduras isn't much different than the 1999-2001 honduras, where honduras won the olympic qualifying tourney, and complete brain fart in the wcq kept them out of the 2002 world cup...

[uclacarlos]

Taken in the context of the growth of world football, I'd say Concacaf has improved,
Wait... you mean globalization is a global phenomenon and hasn't only affected Mexico? I think Hugo Sanchez might disagree. ;)


In all seriousness, yes, C'caf has improved. What it still lacks, however, is quality at depth. 3 games in 96 hours this week proved that. 7 defecting players for Cuba and their subsequent tanking proved that. Guatemala's "performance" on Sunday proved that.

Canadia is going to continue to improve and will soon cement themselves into a permanent top 5, maybe top 3 if they can get another 2 MLS clubs.

[tomwilhelm]

Depth is always going to be an issue.

Countries with greater than 10 million population:
Concacaf: 5
CAF: 25
AFC: 26

Countries with greater than 1 million population:
Concacaf: 15
CAF: 47
AFC: 41

[Nutmeg]

In 2002, CONCACAF was one Costa Rica loss to Brazil away from having all three representatives advance to the knockout rounds. Both Mexico and the US played extremely well up to the point they had to play each other. If we hadn't had to play Mexico, it is conceivable we could have had two teams in the last 8.

That was probably the apex of CONCACAF soccer, and I don't think we're anywhere near that point today.

We may be a little better than we were in 2006, but even that's debatable. What I have noticed is that the athleticism of CONCACAF teams has gotten stronger, particularly with Honduras and Panama. As tomwilhelm points out, though, while Central American teams may have a couple stars on them, they are usually paper thin deep. A couple key players go down, and their overall quality goes in a free-for-all dive.

[sidefootsitter]

C-CAF players have improved at a much faster pace than C-CAF coaches and that includes pretty much every nation at this moment.

If a second tier squad (outside the US and Mexico) ends up hiring a Leo Beenhakker type, it could easily end up at the WC'10.

But I think it would take monumental incompetence and a horrific run of luck for the US and Mexico to miss the WC'10 due to sheer talent of the two rosters.

[lurking]

Due to the small size of many of the CONCACAF nations, the overall quality of the region is extremely volatile. It makes it very difficult to seperate any noticeable trend from the background noise.

[Marko72]

The Caribbean nations are going to have their highs and lows, their highs being a few solid Euro top-flight guys (plus maybe one star) on their roster at the same time. Of course when they're there, they can make a little noise and surprise people. The rest of the time, they're minnows or near-minnows. Like others have said, they're always going to lack depth. Look at a program like Jamaica...

A few of the "other" bigger nations of CONCACAF have some considerable talent (Honduras jumps to mind as usual, but even Canada now has a few pretty good players), but nevertheless, the talent disparity between them and us and Mexico is frankly pretty overwhelming. For the foreseeable future, ours will be a two-team confederation with another, decent (possibly surprising) also-ran.

As for the surprisingly competitive results, you must remember a couple of factors. For one, Mexico and the US have been rebuilding with youth. That's a recipe for early upsets (even if many of the others are as well... you get a lot more upsets at the NCAA tournament than you do in the NBA playoffs, and this is well-known). Ditto with the age-level tournaments like the Olympic Qualifiers. Come Hex time, the "powers" with the stacked talent bases tend to assert themselves much more than early on in the rebuilding phase.

[sidefootsitter]

Jamaica can actually field a decent roster.

T&T went to the WC'06 with less.

[lurking]

Here is a list of some of the CONCACAF countries with populations over 1 million, and some of the better soccer nations for their size around the world mixed in bold.

3 United States 303,645,612
5 Brazil. 186,315,468
11 Mexico. 106,535,000
30 Argentina 41,000,000
36 Canada. 33,212,100
61 Netherlands 16,408,691
67 Guatemala 13,354,000
73 Cuba... 11,268,000
81 Domin. Rep. 9,760,000
84 Haiti.. 9,598,000
87 Sweden. 9,182,927
97 Honduras 7,106,000
98 El Salvador 6,857,000
107 Nicaragua 5,603,000
116 Croatia 4,555,000
117 Costa Rica 4,468,000
125 Puerto Rico 3,991,000*
131 Panama. 3,343,000
132 Uruguay 3,340,000
137 Jamaica 2,714,000
149 Estonia 1,340,600
150 Trin. & Tob. 1,333,000

Obviously Canada and the US have tons of growth potential. As frankly does Mexico. Haiti obviously is problematic for political and economic reasons, but if they ever got the nation straightened out, you have a lot of potential there. Cuba is in somewhat the same boat as Haiti, though is probably not as far away in some respects from getting the political issues resolved (in theory, its not in the same kind of chaos). Dominican is under performing on their potential based on nation size. Guatamala is potentially a pretty darn strong nation.

Costa Rica is one of the few nations thats really pushing toward their upper limit, or at least reasonably close. Nicaragua, El Salvador, and the Honduras could all be better. Don't look for a whole lot more from Jamaica and T&T. Jamaica might be able to improve some, but the amount of growth potential there is relatively small.

*Puerto Rico is a huge wild card. It poses a very.. interesting potential, because as far as I know, any US born citizen is eligible for their national team. So you might see P.R. become the C or D USMNT, and rise and fall tied to the US.

[vflkirwan]

I think the WCQ draw has a lot to do with helping teams improve. They need the competive games to become better.

Unfortunately, I don't think the draws for the past 3 World Cups have been that great. There seems to always be one HARD semifinal group and one EASY semifinal group which eliminates a team which really should be in the HEX.

[sidefootsitter]

I think an often extreme poverty of the C-CAF nations plays a bigger role than their populace.

[Adam Zebrowski]

honduras in wc2002 was one brain fart home performance away from going to the finals...

i say honduras is far closer to be a hex permanant than canada is...

let's see what the do tomorrow versus guatemala..

honduras and usa win will then be a repeat of 2000 sydney quallies, where both won the semis, then honduras schooled usa to win overall first....

[LostintheBarrens]

I think the WCQ draw has a lot to do with helping teams improve. They need the competive games to become better.

Unfortunately, I don't think the draws for the past 3 World Cups have been that great. There seems to always be one HARD semifinal group and one EASY semifinal group which eliminates a team which really should be in the HEX.

No kidding. Try that on if you're the one getting the group of death every four years.
Plus you get screwed by the refs every time you look like winning a game.
Jack Warner and Chuck Blazer would rather Canada never qualify for the Cup.

[QuakeAttack]

I think an often extreme poverty of the C-CAF nations plays a bigger role than their populace.

...that and incompetent national soccer organizations...

[QuakeAttack]

Not really. There are little factors such as the MLS and CONACAF Champions Cup which are slowly improving competition. However, qualifications for 2006 showed some poor teams. We will see whether 2010 qualification is more like 2002 or 2006 in terms of quality. I would guess closter to 2006...

[The Big Ticket]

I think an often extreme poverty of the C-CAF nations plays a bigger role than their populace.
Good point. I don't think it's any coincidence that Costa Rica is the wealthiest country in Central America and also has the strongest national team in that region.

[lurking]

I think an often extreme poverty of the C-CAF nations plays a bigger role than their populace.

It's certainly a factor.

[sidefootsitter]

Honduras hired Bora at $600K/Y and that produced such an public outcry (Honduran GDP/capita in US dollars is ~ $1,200/year), that he decided to quit his job and give back his money.

T&T's economy is the healthiest in the region and they had no problems with Beenhakker's wages.

Povety likely means that most C-CAF nations - which until recently included Mexico - must have a rather calory-limited diet for their populace in general and that deprives their top athletes of the required "building" material in their formative years.