Rotation - the final analysis [R]

[Matt Clark]

I didn't want to sully the Rotation Watch thread with discussion in amongst the stats and as we are nearing the end of the line for this season, I thought a new thread on the issue was warranted.

Here's an interesting perspective to start with: in our last four games, we've scored 9 goals in the second half. We've conceded three.

In the four games before that, we scored two goals in the second half and conceded three.

Overall, since the turn of the year, we've scored 21 second-half goals in the 14 games since 31.12.07 - an average of 1.5. We've conceded 9 in that time (0.6).

In the 31 games to the turn of the year, we scored 36 second-half goals (average 1.16) and conceded 15 (0.48).

Now, both periods have skews in them. After New Year, there's a total of four games against Luton and Havant&Waterlooville. Before New Year, there's Derby County at home and the 8-0 tonking of Besiktas (when we scored an absurd SIX goals in the second 45 minutes).

But nonetheless - can the argument be made that rotation is making us stronger as the season wears on?

[revelationx]

I am not sure. What I do know is that the number of changes to a starting lineup does not directly affect the result. The Press seems to think it is but they are ignorant.

By the way Rooney has just come out today and admitted that
a) Fergie rotates and
b) rotation is good and he supports it


http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,11667_3249553,00.html


I am sure all the press will now jump up and praise Fergie for his astute policy of strategically resting players! The Man U forum on BS has a thread talking about their rotation and some are falsely claiming that Fergie has only just started rotating and only for injuries. This is demonstrably not true but some people deny facts in favour of their assumptions.

The reality has been evident for ages. Lineups are public knowledge so to have this truth suddenly 'revealed' just shows how ignorant some journalists actually are.


Anyway, Matt. The proof of any benefits of rotation will only be determined by the results. We should probably see how many pts we pick up in our final 10 league matches compared to the other teams to see whether our 'freshness' reaps rewards.

[ChanceTheDog]

The reality has been evident for ages. Lineups are public knowledge so to have this truth suddenly 'revealed' just shows how ignorant some journalists actually are.


Anyway, Matt. The proof of any benefits of rotation will only be determined by the results. We should probably see how many pts we pick up in our final 10 league matches compared to the other teams to see whether our 'freshness' reaps rewards.

You could also look at the fact that some people would say we have punched above our wait when it comes to the Champions League. Granted Rafas tactics help, but I also think that our squad is normally in better shape than our opposition come the end of the season when we start to play the harder teams in the knock out stages.

[Liverpool_SC]

The stats that Matt mentioned are a bit tough to isolate as reinforcement of the rotation policy. After all, Torres and Gerrard have accounted by far for most of the goals this season and neither is rotated regularly. One could propose a theory that the fresher the support players are, the better the results of the 'every game' players are. But it is harder to figure out a way to prove a direct correlation.

It would be interesting to track the big four and compare the performance arc for the team's scoring rate, Shots/90, SOG/90, GD or other stats quartiles of the season and then see if there is a correlation between those numbers and the percentage of players who played over 27 - 30 (I don't know what the cutoff would be, but whatever would represent being held out of games for more than just the odd knock or suspension) full games worth of minutes.

For instance, if LFC's average first team player only played 2340 minutes (26 full games) and Arsenal's played 2880 (32 full games) AND Arsenal saw a decline in scoring rate, Shots/90, SOG/90, GD ... then you might have stumbled onto something.

If nothing else, it would be interesting to note how many LFC players get 'significant' playing time (1710 - or half the minutes available in the league) versus how many Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal (or other teams with 'bigger squads') players get the same playing time. This would help determine once and for all how dramatic (in terms of real playing time) Rafa's rotation policy actually is.

Using the gamelog feature at Soccernet ... one can determine minutes played on a player by player basis, but it is a pain.

[drobny23]

There are too many variables to suggest a causal relationship. It's important that we not look at the next 5 games as a referendum on rotation.

Were we to isolate rotation as the reason for a surge in scoring, then I suppose we could also argue the surge in second half scoring is delayed fruit of a team finally building cohesion, which would have been realized sooner had the team NOT been rotated.

[Twenty26Six]

Using the gamelog feature at Soccernet ... one can determine minutes played on a player by player basis, but it is a pain.

Here are some stats...



Name - Games Started - Substitute Appearances ...for the 07-08 Premier League Season

Jamie Carragher 26 0
Steven Gerrard 25 1
Fernando Torres 22 3
Sami Hyypia 20 1
Javier Mascherano 20
Alvaro Arbeloa 20 2
Dirk Kuyt 18 7
John Arne Riise 17 4
Steve Finnan 17 2
Xabi Alonso 11 1
Yossi Benayoun 11 9
Jermaine Pennant 10 3
Fabio Aurelio 10 2
Andriy Voronin 10 3
Ryan Babel 9 15
Harry Kewell 8 2
Peter Crouch 6 10
Mohamed Sissoko 6 3
Lucas Leiva 5 5
Daniel Agger 4 1
Martin Skrtel 4 1
Jack Hobbs 1 1



First Half Table P W D L F A GD PTS
1 Manchester United 28 15 9 4 26 8 +18 54
2 Everton 28 13 11 4 21 8 +13 50
3 Arsenal 28 15 5 8 22 11 +11 50
4 Liverpool 27 12 12 3 18 6 +12 48
5 Chelsea 27 12 9 6 19 9 +10 45
6 Aston Villa 28 11 7 10 17 17 0 40
7 Fulham 28 9 13 6 13 13 0 40
8 Tottenham Hotspur 27 9 10 8 20 16 +4 37
9 Manchester City 28 8 13 7 19 18 +1 37
10 Portsmouth 28 8 13 7 16 17 -1 37
11 Middlesbrough 28 9 10 9 15 16 -1 37
12 Birmingham 28 8 10 10 14 16 -2 34
13 Bolton Wanderers 28 7 10 11 14 21 -7 31
14 Newcastle United 28 5 15 8 13 16 -3 30
15 West Ham United 27 6 12 9 11 17 -6 30
16 Sunderland 28 6 12 10 11 17 -6 30
17 Blackburn Rovers 28 6 11 11 11 16 -5 29
18 Wigan Athletic 28 4 15 9 9 17 -8 27
19 Reading 28 3 11 14 7 20 -13 20
20 Derby County 28 1 14 13 6 23 -17 17

Second Half Table P W D L F A GD PTS
1 Manchester United 28 18 7 3 32 7 +25 61
2 Arsenal 28 17 8 3 35 10 +25 59
3 Chelsea 27 13 12 2 23 8 +15 51
4 Portsmouth 28 11 14 3 22 12 +10 47
5 Aston Villa 28 12 10 6 34 19 +15 46
6 Blackburn Rovers 28 11 12 5 26 18 +8 45
7 Liverpool 27 11 11 5 28 14 +14 44
8 Everton 28 11 11 6 25 16 +9 44
9 West Ham United 27 11 8 8 20 10 +10 41
10 Manchester City 28 7 16 5 15 13 +2 37
11 Tottenham Hotspur 27 9 7 11 29 29 0 34
12 Wigan Athletic 28 7 11 10 17 25 -8 32
13 Bolton Wanderers 28 7 10 11 14 21 -7 31
14 Reading 28 8 7 13 25 35 -10 31
15 Sunderland 28 7 6 15 15 29 -14 27
16 Newcastle United 28 6 9 13 17 37 -20 27
17 Birmingham 28 5 11 12 17 25 -8 26
18 Middlesbrough 28 2 13 13 10 26 -16 19
19 Fulham 28 3 8 17 12 35 -23 17
20 Derby County 28 0 13 15 7 34 -27 13

[revelationx]

... one can determine minutes played on a player by player basis, but it is a pain.

For Premiership only minutes you can get figures for individual players here

http://touchline.onthespot.co.uk/guardian/StatsCentre.asp?Lang=0&CPID=4&CTID=11&TEID=228&pStr=Squad_Stats

[Liverpool_SC]

For Premiership only minutes you can get figures for individual players here

http://touchline.onthespot.co.uk/guardian/StatsCentre.asp?Lang=0&CPID=4&CTID=11&TEID=228&pStr=Squad_Stats

That is great. Using minutes played is much more accurate than strictly using starts and sub appearances. You might actually be able to get a fine enough analysis that you could get some statistically significant numbers if you took multiple seasons into account.

I did a quickie analysis just to see if there are substantially different patterns to the way the big 4 use players this season. It is a totally heuristic model, but it is something at least.

Arsenal has 9 players who have 14 or more starts (extropolates to at least 19 of 38) and 4 additional players who have 7 starts (but less than 14 - extrapolates to 10 of 38). First XI is therefore drawn from a pool of around 13 players. I only included field players.

Man Utd has 9 players who have 14 or more starts and 4 additional players who have 7 starts. First XI drawn from 13 players.

Chelsea has 8 players who have 14 or more starts and 11 additional players who have 7 starts. First XI drawn from 19 players.

Liverpool has 9 players who have 14 or more starts and 7 additional players who have 7 starts. First XI drawn from 16 players.

Bearing that in mind, it is safe to conclude that Liverpool and Chelsea rotate significantly more than Arsenal and Man Utd. To make this generalization more valid ... it would be prudent to run a similar analysis on the past 3 or so seasons, or perhaps go back even further and analyze the top 4 teams each year.

The next step would be to break down the season roughly into quarters and compare winning percentage and GD amongst the four teams. I would value the 2nd and 3rd quarters most, because there are many variables at work in the 1st quarter (new player integration, etc) and 4th quarter (final placement more fixed - less motivation, relegation battlers overperforming, etc).

You could then look to see if LFC and Chelsea (assuming they rotate more over each season) performed disproportionately stronger in 2nd and 3rd quarters and furthermore if they performed disproporationately stronger in seasons where they have higher rotation.

[usscouse]

I'm gonna rotate outta here. I gotta headache...!

[catenaccio_L'pool]

Check out Fulham's 1st vs 2nd half standings...they take the lead, fall asleep and the opponent draws level - who does that remind me of? hmmm;).
At least, we don't lose when we get the lead...

[el-capitano]

Bearing that in mind, it is safe to conclude that Liverpool and Chelsea rotate significantly more than Arsenal and Man Utd.

Although you can look at the rotation thread and draw that conclusion without the quantum physics! :D

[Grinners89]

Can someone please tell me which hole the Daily Mail pulled this stat out of...i know they are some very average people there but this is just stupid. We have 88 PL rotations...that would mean that in 7 CL games and another 7 cup games Rafa has rotated 210 times...that equates to 15 changes per game!!! :eek:...i knew Rafa was good, but THAT good?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/sport/football.html?in_article_id=527834&in_page_id=1779


For the record, Benitez is approaching 300 changes to his side, match by match, from the first day of the season.
He is now on 298 and will almost certainly top that on Saturday against Newcastle.

[revelationx]

Can someone please tell me which hole the Daily Mail pulled this stat out of...i know they are some very average people there but this is just stupid. We have 88 PL rotations...that would mean that in 7 CL games and another 7 cup games Rafa has rotated 210 times...that equates to 15 changes per game!!! :eek:...i knew Rafa was good, but THAT good?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/sport/football.html?in_article_id=527834&in_page_id=1779

I've seen that article and have not bothered to check it. Basically I've only done league matches because using cup fixtures is unfair because some teams play 7 matches in a cup tournament whereas others may only play one. So I have purposely avoided including them in my thread.

However the number of total rotations counting Cup Games can be significantly higher as teams often are more likely to rest players for Cup games or league matches just before CL games. I think Grant made 11 changes or so for one CL match from the previous league match. He then made almost another 11 changes for the league match straight after that CL match. So this would count as 22 total changes in just 3 matches.

Another example of this is when Man U played Coventry in the League Cup, they probably made close to 11 changes to the lineup for that one game and then back again. Similarly Arsenal fielded a 2nd XI for some League Cup matches. If you include all these cup games into total lineup changes then the number will go up dramatically.

Listing the total changes made by Rafa but no other manager is just another attempt to criticise him. The total changes made by the other managers were not listed so how can a comparison be made? Has Rafa made more changes than Grant? How many changes has Fergie or Moyes made?

The Mail is a right-wing scare-mongering tabloid anyway. I feel dirty reading it.

[liverbird]

I'm gonna rotate outta here. I gotta headache...!

We old farts agree again, us.

[el-capitano]

Bump ;)

Okay- its now basically May- two games to go. Current totals are:

Liverpool: 119

Man U: (home of the tinkerman Sir Red Nose) 109

Chelski: 109

Spurs: 90

The Arse: (before last nights game) 66

And now according to our esteemed media, Red Nose is the tinkerman, Rafa has settled on a lineup, and the Arse are fading...... badly. Who'd have thunk it.

[Matt Clark]

Our final total rather depends on tomorrow. If we get knocked out, I'd expect Benitez to play strong sides in the remaining two league games just to finish the season with a surge. If we go through, I'd expect us to treat the two games as total irrelevancies and play youth teams, whilst giving the seniors enough minutes to remain match-fit.

It's safe to say, I think, that if we had still been in meaningful league action this past two weeks, our total would be indistinguishable from United and Chelsea. What would be interesting (and I'm not putting myself forward for the job ;) ) would be if someone takes the data from the main thread and plots trend graphs for the season, changes against points-per-game. Set against the final tallies of changes and points, that could reasonably be taken as the definitive view of the efficacy of rotation.

[CCSC_STRIKER20]

Bump ;)

Okay- its now basically May- two games to go. Current totals are:

Liverpool: 119

Man U: (home of the tinkerman Sir Red Nose) 109

Chelski: 109

Spurs: 90

The Arse: (before last nights game) 66

And now according to our esteemed media, Red Nose is the tinkerman, Rafa has settled on a lineup, and the Arse are fading...... badly. Who'd have thunk it.

The esteemed members of Liverpool's BigSoccer forum ;)

[el-capitano]

It's safe to say, I think, that if we had still been in meaningful league action this past two weeks, our total would be indistinguishable from United and Chelsea. What would be interesting (and I'm not putting myself forward for the job ;) ) would be if someone takes the data from the main thread and plots trend graphs for the season, changes against points-per-game. Set against the final tallies of changes and points, that could reasonably be taken as the definitive view of the efficacy of rotation.

What you are saying is very true, and it would be interesting to have the trend graphs. (but I'm also not putting up my hand for that job either- I think anyone with young kids are excluded from analysing data! ;) )

[Matt Clark]

Bump for post-season analysis. Thread with all stats for the season is accessible by clicking this link (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=581064).

Basic summary - Rafa does rotate more than other teams, but not by much. And our final five games of the season skewed things pretty significantly. In a run-in, we could surely expect more consistent selection and, as such, a largely indistinguishable total when compared to United or Chelsea. Arsenal did rotate considerably less, but then Arsenal also imploded way back in February, so as blueprints for success go, that's not necessarily top of the list.

End conclusion: Rafa the Rotator is a myth.

[el-capitano]

Don't forget by the end of the season, the media had fixated itself on the Red Nose Tinkerman. Rafa had been forgotten about, even though statistically he won! ;)