Estimate Freddy Adu's value to MLS...

[jri]

Just getting ball rolling here...

With the assumption (play with these rules-smile) that Freddy signs for next season, and play in 2004, 2005, and some in 2006 (around WC), and then leaves for England...how much is young Freddy worth to MLS?

1. Attendence increase- I think MLS could see an average increase of 5k in each game-including all DC United home games- that Freddy plays, in the 1st year at least. I think that 5k figure may be conservative. At Dallas Cup and U-17 Minnesota game, he likely drew an extra 5k for those underpublicized events. How much is 5k extra tix for 28 games worth? (with concessions, parking, etc.)? Gotta be well a few mill a year?

2. Extra pub (how much would MLS have to pay to get the free pub Freddy is going to generate).

3. TV ratings (will Freddy give a decent-enough bump to get MLS better TV contract)

4. MLS gear

5. Transfer fee for MLS (Freddy rights)

Likely quite a few other possible money-makers here...but I reckon "owning" Freddy for 3 years will be worth several millions a year....imagine if Freddy plays a decent-sized role in a good US Cup finish in 2006..and throw a transfer fee....we could be talking tens of millions in total..

Wonder how THAT (Freddy/agent/MLS) negotiation is going to shake out? I reckon MLS is hoping to get him for a fraction of that...high risk/reward stakes game to come soon (after U-17 WC?)

[dawgpound2]

The danger with Freddy becomes when, inevitably, MLS goes on to sell him (if indeed he signs with MLS). Do all those people, TV deals, publicity, etc dry up and make the league worse off then before he arrived? You have to be careful as a young, fragile league, in marketing exclusively one young man.

[peledre]

5k bump in attendance jri? No way. The reason that there were 10k at the dallas cup games is the same reason there are like 10k at Minn. Thunder games when schwan's cup is in town, there's 10-20 THOUSAND youth soccer players and their families in town, with not a whole lot to do besides use their free tickets to the events.

1k, maybe.

Suffice to say though, if Freddy develops into all that he has the potential to be (or even half of it), I could see Uncle Phil putting up somewhere in the range of a 10mil (3-4 yrs) offer to counter some of the Euro clubs. Which would definitely be recoupable in two to three-fold in merchandise, tv ratings and game attendance bumps.

[Father Ted]

BTW, Man Utd this week bought 18 year old Cristiano Ronaldo from Sporting Lisbon for almost $20million. I wonder if MLS would get that much if they sign Adu and sold him a couple of years later.

[PissOffThen]

Originally posted by Father Ted
BTW, Man Utd this week bought 18 year old Cristiano Ronaldo from Sporting Lisbon for almost $20million. I wonder if MLS would get that much if they sign Adu and sold him a couple of years later.

Oh that's easy! Yes if not more. It seems as though Mr. Adu is gathering the same hype as a certain rookie basketball player for the Cav's. If Adu signs with the MLS for a couple years then is sold, not only does the MLS get some phat cash but Adu's skills will increase thus making a better USMNT. After all, country THEN club.

[jri]

P- Let's remember this conversation down the road, but yes, I think Freddy will have a Mia-Hammesque effect (her first year in women's league)...

A 14 year/15 year old playing next year (especially after one of his highlite reel goals) is going to get major pub in every city he goes....Already, PTI has talked about Freddy a few times....he will be front-page picture advertisement for games in some cities..

Remember, Freddy is only going to visit each other city a couple times...so, it won't be that hard to reach the goal.

DC will increase its attendence by 5k....I think Freddy-hype will easily beat old season ticket mark..

We shall see...

(As for the other poster) its always better to get them in the seats now (and take your chances) if/when Freddy leaves...

[jri]

BTW- If MLS has 1/2 a brain (questionable!), they will make sure they get a cut of any other transfer of Freddy (by acquiring club)...gift that keeps on giving thing...

[dogbyte]

C. Ronaldo is a great player, but he doesn't have the hype of Freddy Adu. I am not referring to the hype here in the states, but overseas. The brittish papers and the soccer magazines have been hyping Freddy for a while now as well.

If... big if.... he develops the way people think he will. MLS will sign him to a 4 year contract. Sell him after 3, for more than all transfers combined. Even in today's depressed market, and the fact that Adu is american, he will literally pull MLS out of debt by himself once he is transfered. If we get him on to the u-21's right away, play him in the olympics, get him on D.C., then see if he is ready for 2006... he literally will command $20,000,000 at that point.

I am being very realistic here. I am not one who thinks that any american player can command that kind of dough. It's not only the amount of skill, but it's hype. David Beckham is a case in point of this. If one wanted to win a game, you could spend better on 3 $10,000,000 rated players than Beckham, but Becks will make you more money.

[monster]

Originally posted by jri
Just getting ball rolling here...

With the assumption (play with these rules-smile) that Freddy signs for next season, and play in 2004, 2005, and some in 2006 (around WC), and then leaves for England...how much is young Freddy worth to MLS?

1. Attendence increase- I think MLS could see an average increase of 5k in each game-including all DC United home games- that Freddy plays, in the 1st year at least. I think that 5k figure may be conservative. At Dallas Cup and U-17 Minnesota game, he likely drew an extra 5k for those underpublicized events. How much is 5k extra tix for 28 games worth? (with concessions, parking, etc.)? Gotta be well a few mill a year?

I think 5K is overstating it because of one thing that DC games will have that the Dallas Cup didn't - TV. DC has a notoriously fickle walkup market at RFK. Maybe the frst few times they will flock, but one rain storm, one ESPN2 game, one traffic jame and the bump is considerably less.

It might happen at times, but I don't think they can do it consistently.

2. Extra pub (how much would MLS have to pay to get the free pub Freddy is going to generate).

This is unquestioned. MLS has done an outstanding job working with the print press. Next year creates the TV inroads they've been working on.

3. TV ratings (will Freddy give a decent-enough bump to get MLS better TV contract)

I think they will get better ratings, but doubt it will lead to a better contract. They are locked in until 2006, IIRC, and the TV people will know that Freddy will likely be gone by then.

Better sponsorships? Better commercial rates? More flexible scheduling.

Oh, sure.

4. MLS gear

Little by little, MLS Gear is doing better. Personalized shirts are now available if you know were to look. They need to continue this growth if they get him.

5. Transfer fee for MLS (Freddy rights)

Likely quite a few other possible money-makers here...but I reckon "owning" Freddy for 3 years will be worth several millions a year....imagine if Freddy plays a decent-sized role in a good US Cup finish in 2006..and throw a transfer fee....we could be talking tens of millions in total..

Crossing fingers about injury and lackof development.

Wonder how THAT (Freddy/agent/MLS) negotiation is going to shake out? I reckon MLS is hoping to get him for a fraction of that...high risk/reward stakes game to come soon (after U-17 WC?)

You forget one important entity in that triad - MOM.

Originally posted by jri
BTW- If MLS has 1/2 a brain (questionable!), they will make sure they get a cut of any other transfer of Freddy (by acquiring club)...gift that keeps on giving thing...

Why do you say questionable when incentives have been included in deals like Stern John (not their fault Forest transferred him right before it kicked in), Howard and the reported Convey deal? Most of those have been performance standards, which have been the question mark for those guys. So I don't think it's questionable - I think it's standard.

[QPR Kevin H]

I think before people jump to conclusions of significant attendance gains, transfer millions, marketing explosions, etc there are some variables to consider.

1. He really might not sign with MLS (I know we're operating under that assumption in dis thread though). I hope he plays here for a season or two, but there will certainly be giants with pens in hand when he makes himself available.

2. The MLS team he signs with would certainly be given a HUGE boost. Definite attendance gains - can you peg a number to that yet - not really. I could see DC getting well into the 20's for his first few matches though.

3. What about the stars we already have? Remember Mathis, McBride, Beasley, Donovan and the rest of the MLS heros from last summer. Sure we do, but does Joe Sixpack? Have they been watching Landon play for San Jose since his incredible Cup? And the Cup last summer certainly garnered the mainstream media/fan interest that Freddy has. But - attention is one thing - getting that increased interest to manifest itself into increased ticket sales seems to be a tougher thing for MLS.

4. Transfer fees. Can't disregard the arrogance that big European clubs show towards teams in the Americas over fees. Sure you hear about 8 figure agreements when its one European club to the another - but how many do you hear about when they cross the pond? Not too many (about two in the last couple years) - and remember that big Denilson move to Betis (over $30 mil) - clubs will be wary of that high price flop for a player with no top league experience. Im not saying that Freddy will flop - just saying that even if he lights MLS up, expect a lot of lowballing.

Not trying to be negative about the situation - just realistic.

[FlashMan]

Originally posted by QPR Kevin H
Can't disregard the arrogance that big European clubs show towards teams in the Americas over fees.

I agree with much of the rest of your post but I'm not sure the above really applies when it comes to Adu.

I think Euro clubs, etc. might consider Adu more of an "African in American clothing" when it comes to his football, and might therefore not view him with a typical anti-American slant.

Plus, well, he's Freddie. ;)

[QPR Kevin H]

Originally posted by FlashMan
I think Euro clubs, etc. might consider Adu more of an "African in American clothing" when it comes to his football, and might therefore not view him with a typical anti-American slant.
Well they shaft African clubs too! I meant Americas as in MLS, Argetina, Brazil - leagues that La Liga, the Premiership, Serie A see as lower level competition but certainly have players worthy enough to buy. But not worthy of spending the amounts they give to each other. And transfer value is rarely based on potential or raw skill, but more on what level of play they've successfully played in. Example - I dont think that Cristiano Ronaldo would have fetched £12 mil if he played in South America. Then look at who Man U bought the same day - Kleberson of the Brazilian league for £7 mil less.

If anything the fact that he's American and already in good with Nike is going to be an advantage for him.

[MetroStars4Life]

Originally posted by jri




1. Attendence increase

2. Extra pub

3. TV ratings

4. MLS gear

5. Transfer fee for MLS

1.) Your 5K might be too optimistic, but even 2,000 per game would bring in $1 million

2.) Hard to estimate, but worth a lot

3.) It could help MLS sign the first rights-fee contract

4.) I sure would buy an Adu Metros jersey :) OK, I would buy any Adu MLS jersey

5.) Depending on the length of the contract, he could bring in anywhere from 5-20 Million

[JohnR]

Originally posted by FlashMan
I think Euro clubs, etc. might consider Adu more of an "African in American clothing" when it comes to his football, and might therefore not view him with a typical anti-American slant.


Agreed, for several reasons.

One, the anti-American thing is dying down anyway, what with U.S. performance in '02 Cup, Howard, Spector, McBride at Everton, etc.

Second, yes, the African in American clothing point is valid. The biggest trend in European international teams these days is an African in somebody'sclothing. Plenty of precedent for that.

Third, he's Freddy. You don't have to be Sir Alex Ferguson to figure out that he's a special talent.

Fourth, the U17 World Cup gives him the appropriate international spotlight.

Honestly, I think it very likely that Freddy will be the highest-priced transfer ever for a teenager. Besides his obvious talent, the team purchasing him will have a huge inroad into the large & very wealthy U.S. marketplace. I could see "Freddy Adu" Roma or Real Madrid or Liverpool outfits becoming a mainstream fashion item.

[Pmoliu]

Regardless, after today's hat trick against South Korea.....

A Lot.

Paul

[QPR Kevin H]

Originally posted by Pmoliu
Regardless, after today's hat trick against South Korea.....

A Lot.
You do realize that someone has to actually have him under contract for him to be sold. I have a feeling that there is a big club that's not going to let it get to that point. They'll want him soon - and more importantly - on the cheap.

[bostonsoccermdl]

Originally posted by da_cfo
Wrong.

MLS will get NOTHING for Freddy Adu if the European clubs have anything to say about this.

You can bet that the likes of Man U is willing to sign Freddy Adu NOW.

I can't see Freddy Adu signing an MLS contract.

I expect Freddy Adu to go to Europe when the right offer from the right club comes.

Get your facts straight. This has been discussed for the last 6 months...

Technically he CANT under law until he is 18 since he doesnt have dual citizenship from a euro country...
Unless his mom packs her bags and takes the littel brother to europe and works there he aint playing..

[superdave]

Originally posted by bostonsoccermdl
Unless his mom packs her bags and takes the littel brother to europe and works there he aint playing..
And as I understand the rule, even that won't work, because Mrs. Adu (and I mean no disrespect; in this she's like me and 95% of the population) doesn't have any unique job skills. So any job she gets will clearly be an attempt to get around this rule, i.e., for footballing reasons.

[Pmoliu]

Originally posted by da_cfo
Wrong.

MLS will get NOTHING for Freddy Adu if the European clubs have anything to say about this.

You can bet that the likes of Man U is willing to sign Freddy Adu NOW.

I can't see Freddy Adu signing an MLS contract.

I expect Freddy Adu to go to Europe when the right offer from the right club comes.

My apologies. Right now he has no real intrinsic value for MLS.

My comments were on his value as a player and what people would be willing to pay for him. Not necessarily his value to the league.

Paul

[sregis]

has there ever been any suggestion, from his coaches, family, or freddy himself, that he'd begin his pro career anwhere BUT mls? there's really no question if he'll go to mls, just how long he'll stay.