Estimate Freddy Adu's value to MLS...

[sregis]

has there ever been any suggestion, from his coaches, family, or freddy himself, that he'd begin his pro career anwhere BUT mls? there's really no question if he'll go to mls, just how long he'll stay.

[Andy_B]

The formula for Freddy and his mom is simple

1) Go to Europe, get paid very nicely, and be a nobody for 3+ years playing in reserve and youth games in front of 15 people

2) Stay in MLS, get a chance to develop and play in front of 15-20k every night and be paid less than he would get in Europe for scratching his ass.

If he is money driven, he will take step 1, if he is not money driven (and MLS can be creative with the financing for his family), then he will take step 2.

This theory gets thrown out the window if someone figures out a way to let him play first team ball before he gets to 18.

Andy

[monster]

Originally posted by da_cfo
Wrong.

MLS will get NOTHING for Freddy Adu if the European clubs have anything to say about this.

You can bet that the likes of Man U is willing to sign Freddy Adu NOW.

I can't see Freddy Adu signing an MLS contract.

I expect Freddy Adu to go to Europe when the right offer from the right club comes.

Remember when Fox NASCAR eliminated Fox Sports World?

Remember those guarantees for the WUSA international player draft?

Remember how ESPN2 would not have MLS and FSW would rerun a feed of one of the regional games as the new game of the week?

Remember when the MFL moved into LA to pick up where MLS left off?

Good times, good times.

[Andy_B]

Originally posted by jri
[B]Just getting ball rolling here...


1. Attendence increase- I think MLS could see an average increase of 5k in each game-including all DC United home games- that Freddy plays, in the 1st year at least. I think that 5k figure may be conservative. At Dallas Cup and U-17 Minnesota game, he likely drew an extra 5k for those underpublicized events. How much is 5k extra tix for 28 games worth? (with concessions, parking, etc.)? Gotta be well a few mill a year?


Freddy will have a small, but noticeable affect on DC United's home attendance, but will have virtually no affect when he plays away (especially in his first year)

Never ever ever make the mistake of comparing one off attendance at tournaments with attendance week in and week out for a div 1 league. There is too much history on why they do not relate.


2. Extra pub (how much would MLS have to pay to get the free pub Freddy is going to generate).

Of all that you have listed, this is by far the most important because it is the most likely to happen.

3. TV ratings (will Freddy give a decent-enough bump to get MLS better TV contract)

He will have less affect on ratings than he has on attendance for one reason that seems to allude some people. VIRTUALLY NO ONE KNOWS WHO HE IS.

We think the pub is great that he is getting and we know the pub will only get better but lets face it, he is no where near as well known as Landon (SI cover, late night talk shows, poster boy for US Soccer) and Landon does not affect anything in terms of ratings or attendance.

Expecting someone who is SIGNIFICANTLY less known than Landon to have a seminal affect, especially in his first year, is niave.

4. MLS gear

as one would say, you can only go up when you are at rock bottom so I guess he certainly would help here. The total dollars would be negligible.

5. Transfer fee for MLS (Freddy rights)

Huge huge huge, especially if they do what you suggested and get a piece of the action on the backend when Freddy continues to be transfered over his career.

Likely quite a few other possible money-makers here...but I reckon "owning" Freddy for 3 years will be worth several millions a year....imagine if Freddy plays a decent-sized role in a good US Cup finish in 2006..and throw a transfer fee....we could be talking tens of millions in total..

Now here is where I start to agree with you. Freddy's real value to MLS would be AFTER he plays in a world cup and starts to become nationally recognized.

Should he play great for the US and the US make it to say the semi's(let me dream for a second), his affect on MLS would be enormous.

Until that time in the future, he will be an interesting story in year one, but unless he lights the league on fire, he will remain a solid local DC story in the next 1-3 years.

Andy

[Tea Men Tom]

First with regard to his mother not having unique job skills, if Freddie's good enough, Sir Alex and the FA will work around it. Rules have a way of not necessarily applying to the incredibly gifted.

2nd, from the MLS perspective, Freddie is the perfect fit at this point in time for this league. It also helps that Uncle Phil, with all his resources, is also extending his reach globally.

Freddie has so much value to MLS right now, that I think Uncle Phil will do whatever he feels is necesary to get him in the fold for 2 or 3 years. It certainly helps when your main benefactor is a billionaire and a soccer nut.

I wouldn't rule out a deal with Leverkeusen since the two already worked together on the Donovan thing.

Finally, assuming he does get to play in MLS for awhile. I've got bad news for DC United fans.

There are two negatives at work for them. One, DC ain't New York and we all know how vital the NY market is to any league. 2nd, I like Ray Hudson, but he doesn't exactly have a great track record developing young talent.

If I'm in Freddie's camp, I would want him with one of the premier coaches who's proven he can work with young players. Sigi and Bradley fit the description but LA already has their stadium and right now the NY market needs more work.

Bottom line is he'll be in New York.

[superdave]

Originally posted by Tea Men Tom
First with regard to his mother not having unique job skills, if Freddie's good enough, Sir Alex and the FA will work around it. Rules have a way of not necessarily applying to the incredibly gifted.
1. If the rule doesn't work for Freddy, it doesn't work for anyone. That's just common sense. Think about the nature of the loophole. It's not like a WP, where a ManU can get Tim Howard around it, but if Millwall wanted him, they probably couldn't. There's no appeal process on this.

2. ??? Kershaw, head of ManU's youth academy, thinks they can't get him.

[peledre]

Originally posted by Tea Men Tom

Finally, assuming he does get to play in MLS for awhile. I've got bad news for DC United fans.

There are two negatives at work for them. One, DC ain't New York and we all know how vital the NY market is to any league. 2nd, I like Ray Hudson, but he doesn't exactly have a great track record developing young talent.
Bottom line is he'll be in New York.
The only team in MLS Freddy would play for is DC. I would be willing to bet a very large sum of money.
If he does decide to sign with MLS, they will let him play for any team he wants, and he's not going to want New York. His mom lives in DC, he's already trained with DC a lot, he's going to DC, if he goes anywhere.

[Justin O]

Originally posted by Andy_B
Expecting someone who is SIGNIFICANTLY less known than Landon to have a seminal affect, especially in his first year, is niave.

This I can't agree with. This came up in another thread and i mentioned something about how in American popular-culture awareness, if you count people who don't remember his name but know of "the super young American soccer phenom who got a million dollars from Nike" Freddy is behind Beckham, Ronaldo and that's it. Certainly I know more people who are aware of the "soccer kid" than who are aware of Landon Donovan. Donovan had his couple weeks of fame along the lines of American Olympic stars, but outside of people who are already soccer fans, he's largely been forgotten.

Adu has been a topic on the talking head sports shows, SporsCenter and ESPNews had Adu highlights and SI and the Washingon Post at least have sent writers to Finland. If I may generalize, he's already passed Donovan in the casual fan's mind.

[listentobobmarley]

Mucho Dinero.

[JerzyRebel]

Sorry to offend Landon fans but Freddy's buzz has already dwarfed anything Landon ever hoped for. Sportscenter never did a feature on just Landon, Sports Illustrated never did a feature on Just Landon. Nobody was sending reporters to the U-17 tournament when Landon was playing in it. It's nowhere near the same thing. All that said, having Freddy still isn't going to mean a packed RFK (And face it fellas, the kid will only go to D.C.). Freddy will create a buzz when he joins the league and as he develops into a force in the league. He will become a novelty for ESPN to follow (seriously think about it, a 15-16 year old dominating a pro league). They'll eat it up.

As for those who think Freddy will go to Europe, consider this. Nike has signed him and are now going to look to squeeze some bucks out of the kid. If he were to go to Europe now he'd basically be stuck on youth sides for three years, with no exposure other than the national team call-ups he'll get. If he signs with MLS that means instant exposure around the U.S. That's good for Nike and whatever is good for Nike is what will happen.

D.C. will trade some sort of package to Dallas for the top pick then use that pick AND the allocation to get Freddy in 2004. That's what happens. That's what has to happen. The league can't just give him to D.C. for Convey's allocation, he has to go into the draft (And yes, I know the league's rules are written in crayon but I believe in this case they will have to at least try to do what's right for all involved.)

What will Freddy mean for the league? Three years of increased interest and buzz and then about $25 to $30 million in transfer money.

[da_cfo]

Originally posted by Tea Men Tom
First with regard to his mother not having unique job skills, if Freddie's good enough, Sir Alex and the FA will work around it. Rules have a way of not necessarily applying to the incredibly gifted.


Bingo.

We have a winner.

Sir Alex wants to sign Adu NOW.

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/headlinenews?id=274195&cc=5901

Man U fits the "right" club description.

Man U is a NIKE team.

Man U matches are aired in the US EVERY WEEK.

Now will Man U make the "right" offer?

[superdave]

Originally posted by da_cfo
We have a winner.

Sir Alex wants to sign Adu NOW.

Motzkin reels in another fish. Well, two really, the Guardian, and Ollie.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55957-2003Aug13.html


"He is so high profile now that it actually inhibits us," Kershaw said.

"We couldn't get him over here other than through the proper channels."

http://www.fifa.com/en/organisation/player/transfer.html

International transfers of players under the age of 18 shall only be permitted under the following conditions:

1. as a general rule, when the family of the player moves to the country in which the new club is located for reasons that are not linked to football

I'll take FIFA rules and an attributed quote over a "newspaper report."

[harttbeat]

How are the US U-17 drawing in Finland?

[CrewDust]

Originally posted by harttbeat
How are the US U-17 drawing in Finland?

Not too great, but their paintings are top notch. ;)

[superdave]

Oliver, in all seriousness...what do you think will be ManU's (or whatever club's) approach to getting Freddy? I'm assuming you think there's a way around that rule.

What do you think is that way?

In the case of ManU, or any English club, how do you think they'll get Freddy a WP?

[da_cfo]

Originally posted by superdave
Oliver, in all seriousness...what do you think will be ManU's (or whatever club's) approach to getting Freddy? I'm assuming you think there's a way around that rule.

What do you think is that way?

In the case of ManU, or any English club, how do you think they'll get Freddy a WP?

When enough "grease" is applied to enough "palms"...

[QPR Kevin H]

Originally posted by superdave
FIFA rules
http://www.torahradio.net/cash.gif

The only rules FIFA play by.

If this was a Home Office or EU matter - then I'd agree it will be tough to get around. FIFA is such a sham of a governing body that their rules mean nothing to me. Kinda like all those straight reds we've seen for tackles from behind. I'll believe them when they actually stop someone from getting him.

[superdave]

1. Since ManU is publicly traded, with (I presume) audited books and everything, how are they going to disguise a bribe? What would be the nature of the bribe?
2. Can someone cite a precedent for something like this? A FIFA election, to me, is NOT a precedent. That's not the same thing as FIFA ignoring a rule in arguably the most high profile situation, which would have the concomitant effect of making the rule meaningless. Besides, in election cases, it wasn't FIFA HQ getting bribed, it was various national FA personnel.
3. Kevin QPR...OK, since you brought it up, how does Freddy get a WP with ZERO senior caps?

It's easy to say, well, look at how much money is involved, and stay vague. I'm saying, OK, prove it. Has something like this happened before?

I'll be the first to admit my knowledge of these kinds of things ain't that great. So, educate me.

[QPR Kevin H]

Originally posted by superdave
3. Kevin QPR...OK, since you brought it up, how does Freddy get a WP with ZERO senior caps?
Like I said above, if the Home Office is involved, then you have a ruling body that will seriously consider making the appropriate decision. And it very well may block an English club from getting Freddy. But how do their rules apply to junior players signing academy terms (which, if Im not mistaken, would not even be full time employment)? And they are clearly giving weight to junior caps - albeit when that player has senior caps as well.

[DanRod78]

The MLS should do everything and anything to keep Freddy Adu in the US.
Freddy Adu is worth billions to MLS, a lot more that he would be worth to any country in the World.
If the MLS play their cards right, they could easily make Freddy Adu the David Beckham of the US (besides the fact that Freddy Adu is really good playing soccer)
Just look at how much money Real Madrid made with David Beckham in China.
The MLS could use Freddy Adu for marketing to make the MLS one of the best leagues in the World, like I said before, if they play their cards right.

This is what the MLS should do
- ANNOY THE S..T OUT OF ESPN so that they'll show Freddy Adu everyday if possible.
- Get all the media to show their picture all the time, interview him, etc, etc.
- Talk to MTV and make Freddy Adu a pop idol to increase the fan base in young americans.
- In few words, show Freddy Adu everywhere as an American heroe, pop-idol, etc,etc.

How much would he be worth to MLS, ask the MLS how much money they are willing to pay to become one of the best leagues in world, and that's how much I think he is worth to the MLS.