How Fast Are We Improving--The Long View

[Maximum Optimal]

This post is a bit long, but I wanted to take a panoramic view of how the American soccer player has improved (or not improved) relative to his global counterpart over the years. Even though any such evaluation is inherently subjective, I wanted to quantify it as much as possible by giving an overall numerical rating for the top players from each birthyear. Initially, I want to focus on these ratings to see if we can reach consensus, then we can move on to try to analyze trends and reach some conclusions about how quickly we are improving as a soccer-playing country.

My idea is to give a rating (similar to a vintage score) for each birthyear, starting with 1966. The significant national team players from each birthyear are listed. The overall rating will range from 1 to 10. I will base this vintage rating on a blend of the players' club and national team careers. I will give somewhat more weight in most cases to club careers because this will enable us to evaluate each birthyear within a global perspective.

A vintage with a score of 10 (which we have not come close to achieving) would be one with at least two players who have significant multi-year careers with really big clubs (the Real Madrids, AC Milans, ManUs). A 9 would have one such player and a couple others with significant careers with mid-table clubs in top leagues.

Let's move on to the fun part.

1966 Ramos Klopas Vermes Murray Fraser (overall rating 5)
1967 Harkes Balboa (5)
1968 Agoos Regis (4)
1969 Keller Wynalda Stewart Meola Lassiter (7)
1970 Jones Lalas Burns Deering Henderson (4)
1971 Friedel Moore Sorber (5)
1972 McBride Armas (5)
1973 Reyna Pope Berhalter Maisonneuve (7)
1974 Hejduk Lewis Razov (3)
1975 awful vintage/no wine (0)
1976 Mathis Mastroeni Kirovski Klein (5)
1977 O'Brien Wolff Conrad Olsen (6)
1978 Ching (2)
1979 Howard Cherundolo Bocanegra Albright (6)
1980 Gibbs Califf Twellman (2)
1981 no wine (0)
1982 Donovan Beasley Onyewu (7)
1983 Dempsey Convey Clark (5)
1984 Johnson Guzan Bornstein Mapp Parkhurst Simek (provisional 5)
1985 Feilhaber (provisional 2)
1986 Spector Edu Wynne Gaven Davies (provisional 5)
1987 Bradley Szetela Rogers Seitz Smith Sturgis (provisional 6)
1988 Kirk Zimmerman (provisional 2)
1989 Adu Altidore Wallace (potential vintage of the century)

[FCmagic01]

I get your rating system but I really dont feel like rating every class at the moment so I will just say it in words.....

We finally have a world class field player in the makings, in my opinion at least 1 of the 3 studs from the past U-20 WC (Adu, Altidore, Bradley) will end up starting for one of the "major clubs" in world football.

Our next major class is the current U-17's (Renken, Jerome, Gyua) from watching all the nike friendlies they looked amazing. They have held their own against MLS teams over the past few weeks. Being between the ages 13-15 and losing 3-0, 2-0, 3-1, to professionals is amazing to me.

We now have great classes but getting consistent classes will now be key. The class in between these two is weak. The last U-17 WC was a big disappointment. I know they had good results against some teams pre-WC and a few have signed overseas or in MLS so hopefully that helps them.

[nobody]

I don't wanna sound too pessimistic. But, I'm not gonna count the kids as huge improvements until they actually do something, rather than rating their classes as fantastic on my prediction of what they will do.

That said, we do have more players than ever playing at higher levels in Europe than ever before, and at younger ages. So, progress is being made. But, lets not fool ourselves into thinking we are monumentally better because we predict great things may someday be done by some of the current youngsters. I'm not saying a couple of them won't go on to greatness. I just think when we bank on that sort of thing in advance, we are deluding ourselves a bit.

[Sachin]

The problem with your rating system is that it fails to take opportunity into account. Remember that the older players came through in a time when there were significant foreign player restrictions in European leagues, and pre-judging of American players was widespread. Keller's and Freidel's success paved the way for Howard at ManU, so on and so forth.

[bltleo]

[QUOTE=Maximum Optimal;13985594]
"A vintage with a score of 10 (which we have not come close to achieving) would be one with at least two players who have significant multi-year careers with really big clubs (the Real Madrids, AC Milans, ManUs). "


I have a note to this post.....

I don´t know why many of you consider for big clubs only Real Madrid or ManUS..
I would also put to big clubs Bayern Munich for example...BTW Landon Donovan, Hejduk,
Reyna played for example also in top Bundesliga club like Bayer Leverkusen (currently number 3 in BL)...

if you look how many American players play in Bundesliga, then you would say that Bundesliga is also interesting league for American players....

Maybe Klinsi will bring some new american players to Bayern Munich....It will be interesting to see..I guess it could be some player from LA Galaxy that Klinsi know very good...maybe Donovan come back to Bundesliga, Bayern Munich...and this is surely top european club!!!.

BTW...the coach of Real Madrid is also German, Bernd Schuster:)

[bltleo]

I have also another point to this discussion.

I think it is not good only to look how many American players play in top european clubs
but maybe how American players contribute to the improving of MLS itself..would be not that better if MLS had also own top club?...I don´t mean only LA Galaxy (they have money) , but I mean that USSF put more work into supporting MLS to making MLS more attractive league.....so American players play in MLS and don´t just leave to "top european clubs".....

Young American players should not "support" big european clubs, but maybe more to concentrate to make own league more interesting and attractive...so one day European soccer players also would like to play in MLS, not only "retiring" players like Beckham..
MLS should not be "operetta league" like NASL was someday...but it should turn to "competition" for european leagues....

For european clubs are American players "cheap"..so it is easier to get good talents for less money maybe....but some of American players have for me really value and are already on the way to become world class....Donovan for example....

This is my opinion.

[giffenbone]

only a total of one :) in 2 long-ish bltleo posts

are you feeling ok? :)

[FakeFlopper]

I think the top two guys are really going to be Altidore and Adu. Not sold on the Michael Bradley hype yet. Been there and done that with EJ, I'll just wait to see how it pays out. Donovan showed us what we can produce with our current system. I do believe our system in the US needs an overhaul though. We do need better coaching, as I think that's how you bring out the best in the players. Bruce got us in the right direction, but stalled out. I believe the talent on the team is better than 06, but the playing isn't better than what Bruce produced.

[Monkey Boy]

One interesting thing I notice from the list of players is the year that they were born. The youngest guys were born in 1989, when the US was finally qualifying for a WC again. These guys grew up while soccer in the US was beginning to get noticed.

Most of the young players at that time didn't start playing soccer until they were about 5 or 6. Their coaches were parents who knew nothing about the game. Heck, I graduated HS in 1994 and my HS coach never even played soccer before. He had been a hockey coach. He watched videos on how to coach soccer and learn about the game.

Now that soccer has become established in the US, we're started to have youth coaches who actually played. My two sons have been watching soccer with me on TV since they were born. My older son is only 3 and he already dribbles and shoots a ball comfortably with both feet. My younger son is only 8 months old and he gets so excited watching me dribble while holding him that he's hard to hold onto.

Add to that clubs across the country starting academy programs and MLS teams are making money. The next step will be even more money put into youth development as well as improving the youth coaches. We're just now getting to the point where most youth coaches should have actually played soccer at one point. Eventually we'll get to the point where the coaches had significant experience playing soccer.

It's a long road, but we're already seeing many European teams taking advantage of the young/cheap talent in the US. This is good for the US IMO because there are now more opportunities for players at home and abroad. With a country of this size, players need more professional opportunities than MLS or USL.

[Maximum Optimal]

[QUOTE=Maximum Optimal;13985594]
"A vintage with a score of 10 (which we have not come close to achieving) would be one with at least two players who have significant multi-year careers with really big clubs (the Real Madrids, AC Milans, ManUs). "


I have a note to this post.....

I don´t know why many of you consider for big clubs only Real Madrid or ManUS..
I would also put to big clubs Bayern Munich for example...BTW Landon Donovan, Hejduk,
Reyna played for example also in top Bundesliga club like Bayer Leverkusen (currently number 3 in BL)...

if you look how many American players play in Bundesliga, then you would say that Bundesliga is also interesting league for American players....

Maybe Klinsi will bring some new american players to Bayern Munich....It will be interesting to see..I guess it could be some player from LA Galaxy that Klinsi know very good...maybe Donovan come back to Bundesliga, Bayern Munich...and this is surely top european club!!!.

BTW...the coach of Real Madrid is also German, Bernd Schuster:)

I think any reasonable reader would understand that I was simply giving a few examples of really big clubs and that my list was not meant to include all such clubs. For example, I did not include Barcelona, Juventus, Bayern Munich, Chelsea. This does not mean that I do not think they are really big clubs.

I know that the French invented the word chauvenism and that Americans can be quite chauvenistic, but I have to say that as an individual you are easily the most chauvenistic person I know.

PS: Thanks for sharing the information that Bernd Schuster (a German) is coach of Real Madrid.

[leppercut]

I have also another point to this discussion.

I think it is not good only to look how many American players play in top european clubs
but maybe how American players contribute to the improving of MLS itself..would be not that better if MLS had also own top club?...I don´t mean only LA Galaxy (they have money) , but I mean that USSF put more work into supporting MLS to making MLS more attractive league.....so American players play in MLS and don´t just leave to "top european clubs".....

Young American players should not "support" big european clubs, but maybe more to concentrate to make own league more interesting and attractive...so one day European soccer players also would like to play in MLS, not only "retiring" players like Beckham..
MLS should not be "operetta league" like NASL was someday...but it should turn to "competition" for european leagues....

For european clubs are American players "cheap"..so it is easier to get good talents for less money maybe....but some of American players have for me really value and are already on the way to become world class....Donovan for example....

This is my opinion.

You're right , that is the long term goal, but I don't see it happening in the next 5 or so years. Maybe in 10

[asdf2]

One interesting thing I notice from the list of players is the year that they were born. The youngest guys were born in 1989, when the US was finally qualifying for a WC again. These guys grew up while soccer in the US was beginning to get noticed.

Most of the young players at that time didn't start playing soccer until they were about 5 or 6. Their coaches were parents who knew nothing about the game. Heck, I graduated HS in 1994 and my HS coach never even played soccer before. He had been a hockey coach. He watched videos on how to coach soccer and learn about the game.

Now that soccer has become established in the US, we're started to have youth coaches who actually played. My two sons have been watching soccer with me on TV since they were born. My older son is only 3 and he already dribbles and shoots a ball comfortably with both feet. My younger son is only 8 months old and he gets so excited watching me dribble while holding him that he's hard to hold onto.

Add to that clubs across the country starting academy programs and MLS teams are making money. The next step will be even more money put into youth development as well as improving the youth coaches. We're just now getting to the point where most youth coaches should have actually played soccer at one point. Eventually we'll get to the point where the coaches had significant experience playing soccer.

It's a long road, but we're already seeing many European teams taking advantage of the young/cheap talent in the US. This is good for the US IMO because there are now more opportunities for players at home and abroad. With a country of this size, players need more professional opportunities than MLS or USL.

I'm totally with you on this. I'm 10 years older than you and as a kid played soccer and actually had some decent coaches but I didn't touch a ball from the last game in the fall to the first practice the next fall. Whereas hoops and baseball we played pick up games constantly year-round, watched it on TV, etc.

Fast forward to my 8-yr-old son, to him Landon Donovan is as big a hero as any baseball or basketball player he could name. MLS started 3 years before he was born. He and his pals play pick up soccer game at recess at school. He jokes constantly about yellow and red cards, etc. Soccer is just part of his life and culture in a deeply ingrained cultural way. Of course this isn't true for all 8 year olds in all parts of the US but there are exponentially more kids like this than there were 30 years ago.

On this field this translates to - as you mentioned with your son - kids like my son who can dribble through a crowd with their head up, shoot with both feet, etc. My son chipped a keeper in a U8 game last year with the outside of his left foot. He's a good but not elite athlete. I compare that to myself 30 years ago when I made my high school team as a centerback and literally could not pass with my left foot until that year.

[Nutmeg]

IMO youth soccer development in the US reached its peak with the 1999 U17 team, and has stagnated since. Some teams have been worse, some almost as good, but no significant improvement since.

It drives home the idea of how important development is from the 13-15 year old range is, and IMO also highlights the fact that Bradenton has taken us as far as it can. It's time to move beyond it.

[appoo]

While looking at top players is absolutely a part of judging improvement, I think one should also look at the bredth and width of the pool

The basic idea - say if in 1980, the median talent of your pool was a D+. I think today, it's a B-. (for comparison;s sake, you could probably say that Argentina and Brazil are the only A nations, the best European nations are at A- or B+, the better South American nations at B, and the best of the rest of the world at B-).

If I were to judge it by top players, I think we're going backwards. Since Tab Ramos, I think we've onlky discovered 3 guys capable of playing at his level. Reyna, Donovan, and Adu. We'll see if Jozy shows that level of talent in the near future. And Adu was discovered 5 years ago. Since that time, I'd suggest we haven't uncovered a single player who's near Landon/Reyna/Ramos level of talent.

[Maximum Optimal]

While youth soccer today is undoubtedly stronger in this country than it was 20 or even 10 years ago, I think we need to be realistic and avoid the temptation to over-estimate the rate of improvement. Moving up the league table of world soccer is one hard, long slog. Now that we are in the top 20-30 in the world, I think further improvement will be even tougher.

I think the Elo Ratings for the US tell a pretty accurate story, which dovetails with the vintage analysis I've presented above. http://eloratings.net/USA.htm

During the 1970s and 1980s, the US was usually ranked between 70 and 80 in the world. Our big breakthrough occurred in the early 1990s, especially the run to the CONCACAF championship in 1991. Following that, the US was ranked 35th. The generation responsible for this was the Ramos, Harkes, Meola, Wynalda group. There were a few decent players (Caligiuri comes to mind) who were slightly older, but it was starting with the 1966 birthyear that we started consistently producing some decent players who could compete in strong leagues in Europe.

It turned out that our success in the 1991 Gold Cup represented a high point we couldn't completely sustain (a bit like our run in the 2002 World Cup) and by 1993-94 our ranking hovered around 50th in the world. It should be noted that this represented an improvement relative to where we stood in the 1970s and 1980s.

Since then our improvement has been fairly gradual. We are currently ranked 27th, not too far from where we were in 1991. However, in the intervening period we did have some good runs that brought us briefly into the top 10. However, there have also been some brief periods when we have dropped out of the top 30. Basically we have been fluctuating in a range whose midpoint is 20 for the past 15 years.

I think this slow improvement (which sometimes feels like stagnation) is reflected in my vintage rankings. For every occasional outstanding group there are duds such as the 1988, 1985, 1981, 1980, 1978, 1975 vintages. Perhaps we are on the verge of a breakthrough if younger prospects such as Altidore, Adu, Renken, Jerome and Watts all live up to their potential. Sadly, history teaches us that most of these talented young players will probably not reach the pinacle. The top soccer playing countries probably have closer to 20 such prospects in the same age range, which allows them to still produce greater numbers of the finished product after the inevitable winnowing process.

[Maximum Optimal]

If I were to judge it by top players, I think we're going backwards. Since Tab Ramos, I think we've onlky discovered 3 guys capable of playing at his level. Reyna, Donovan, and Adu. We'll see if Jozy shows that level of talent in the near future. And Adu was discovered 5 years ago. Since that time, I'd suggest we haven't uncovered a single player who's near Landon/Reyna/Ramos level of talent.

To be fair, however, I'm looking at a somewhat larger group than the Tab Ramos level players. I'm trying to identify the group upon which the fate of the national team depends. The 20th best player for each birthyear may be improving very rapidly. But if the 3rd or 4th best isn't, that doesn't amount to a hill of beans in terms of the quality of the national team.

[appoo]

The 20th best player for each birthyear may be improving very rapidly. But if the 3rd or 4th best isn't, that doesn't amount to a hill of beans in terms of the quality of the national team.

eh, I think there might two schools of thought on this. One you could encapsulate by asking who's better -

Ukraine with an In-Form Andriy Shevchenko, or the USA - who have better overall players, but a not player of Andriy's class.

Liverpool 05 vs. AC Milan 05 - Stephen Gerrard carries Liverpool past a superior Milan side.

or: Austria U20 07 vs. USA U20 07 - In this Case USA had the top echelon player advantage, but because Austria had more talent across the board, they were able to beat us.

[giffenbone]

Ukraine with an In-Form Andriy Shevchenko, or the USA - who have better overall players, but a not player of Andriy's class.

I will always choose the USA as my favorite over Ukraine, but don't put me in a tough spot here :rolleyes: (see my favorite teams listed)

[Maximum Optimal]

eh, I think there might two schools of thought on this. One you could encapsulate by asking who's better -

Ukraine with an In-Form Andriy Shevchenko, or the USA - who have better overall players, but a not player of Andriy's class.

Liverpool 05 vs. AC Milan 05 - Stephen Gerrard carries Liverpool past a superior Milan side.

or: Austria U20 07 vs. USA U20 07 - In this Case USA had the top echelon player advantage, but because Austria had more talent across the board, they were able to beat us.

I think you misunderstood my point. The 20th best player in any given birthyear will not be playing for the national team. Only the top 3-4 players in any given birthyear matter for the senior team.

[Adam Zebrowski]

i think if you look at the 20th best player for usa, brasil, england, germany, kuwait, you get a sense of the in depth picture for any country...

say those born 1980, who's that player for any country, and you'll get a decent pitcure of where that country is...

do that for years 1975-1990 and that's a portrait worth looking at