Remaining Schedule

[Postmaster]

The underwhelming results since Christmastime have put Reading at the top of the drop zone. Everyone acknowledges this is now officially a relegation battle.

With 12 matches left, how do things look? Nothing earth-shattering, but here are a few observations. I’m sure that more-experienced EPL watchers will have more to say.

The classic level of safety is 40 points. A 6-6 finish should certainly secure Reading’s Premiership status. Given how the table stands, it probably won’t require 18 points.

Reading must overtake Sunderland, Bolton, Wigan, or Birmingham (all within 4 points) while keeping Fulham (and Derby) in their rear view mirror. This makes Reading’s remaining fixtures with these clubs (Birmingham & Fulham at home, Wigan away) vital. Although too low to be a direct threat, throw in the finale at Derby as also being vital points.

I looked at the remaining schedules for the 7 teams in the relegation battle and classified their opponents as top (i.e., tougher teams in the top 7), middle (i.e., next 6 fairly safe, mid-table-ish teams), or bottom (i.e., 7 teams worried about relegation). It’s hard to get a point off top teams, whereas middle teams might be more vulnerable. Bottom teams are the vital matches noted above and having a larger number of them increases the opportunity to both earn points and deny them to competition.

Club Top/Mid/Bot
Reading 4/4/4
Fulham 4/4/4*
Derby 5/3/4
Wigan 5/3/4*
Sunderland 5/4/3
Birmingham 5/4/3*
Bolton 6/4/2
*includes Reading as a Bot opponent

The distribution of the remaining matches isn’t startling, but it is somewhat helpful to Reading. None of the competitors has fewer matches against top teams or more matches against bottom teams. So Reading still has to go out and earn it, but at least the deck is not stacked against them.

Reading faces some challenging matches (Aston Villa, Man City, Liverpool, and Arsenal), but are done with ManU, Chelsea, and Everton. I like Reading’s chances. If Reading can win 3 of 4 vital matches against Birmingham, Fulham, Wigan, and Derby and pick up a point or two from the remaining 4 matches with mid-table teams, I think that should do it. Anything from the top teams is gravy.

Look at poor Bolton with half their remaining matches against all of the top 7 teams except Everton (Liverpool, ManU, Man City, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea). For their matches with mid-table opponents, 3 of 4 are away. Reading should not have squandered their opportunity against Bolton earlier this month, but even with those 3 points now in the wrong hands, I think Bolton is still in a difficult position.

Of course, none of this means anything except that Reading may benefit from having already played a few more of the most challenging opponents. The bottom line is Reading have to start playing well against beatable competition and getting some points whenever possible. At least the remaining schedule doesn’t make that unachievable.

[Neeto]

Yes, I would have to agree that I like Reading's chances when it comes to the remaining schedule. I've looked through several bottom team's schedules and they look harder than ours. One of the tougher schedule goes to Wigan. They have Derby this week, but the remaining games are very tough for them.
It would be great if Reading can get a win at home against a top side like Villa. They have been playing very well and a win against them would be vital. Hopefull we can get a few wins right away to get the stadium expansion plans up and running for this summer instead of next summer.

[rms5555]

I honestly think it's a crap shoot at this point. There hasn't been any consistancy this year from game to game. Maybe there really is something to these second year blahs that I poo poo'd 8 month's ago. I also think that not spending to get a automatic starter at the January window was a mistake. Maybe it would have gotten these guys out of the LA LA land they seem to dreaming in that their positions are safe.

[Laudy]

Maybe it would have gotten these guys out of the LA LA land they seem to dreaming in that their positions are safe.

You make a very good point in which the starters were never really challenged partially because of injuries and the ANC. The only position that was up for grabs was at forward and nobody has done anything to deserve the guaranteed start. Lita was given a few chances to make something happen and while he didn't play poorly he just couldn't find the net. Doyle has been in a funk and has not come close to the level he was at last season. As far a Kitson, he has been solid but I believe the other teams have been focusing their attention to him and that has caused him some troubles. Long is the odd man out as he won't see much time but he is definitely making strides to catch up. What little time he has gotten has been impressive.

The midfield was pretty cut and dry. Hunt, Convey, Harper, and Gunnarsson. Little and Oster have been injured, Fae was in the ANC, and the rest have not stood out and earned a shot. Once Gunnarsson was injured, Coppell signed Matejovsky and Kebe, and Oster got healthy the level of play has seemed to go up a notch. Matejovsky has made a definite impact and I think Kebe adds speed to the equation that really changes the team dynamic. The trouble now is getting the players on the field. Matejovsky and Hunt are must starts and Harper is just about a lock but the rest of the guys must earn their spots. With Kebe's speed if he uses his oppotunities and impresses then he will take the remaining spot on the wing. That leaves Convey, Little, Oster, Gunnarsson, and Fae on the outside looking in. While that is good for depth a player like Little, when healthy, is crucial. I may be jumping the gun with Kebe but I was impressed by his immediate impact and of course his speed.

The back line has been the same as the mid field. Injuries and the ANC have limited the options and probably some players got complacent. Murty is a solid option but his lack of speed is a worry for me. Bikey and Sonko have returned from the ANC and Sonko played well in the last match. Shorey has improved in the latter part of the season and Ingimarsson has been up and down. Duberry just seems to always be injured and Cisse has been the lone surprise and may complicate things. Does Coppell go with size and use Sonko and Bikey in the middle with Shorey and Murty on the ends or does he reward Cisse for his play and give him another shot?

I don't evny Coppell at all right now. He has the talent to win if the players play to their potential. That being said he has more than a few players that have not played to that potential which I feel is the reason for the previous results. All in all I think Reading has a good shot to rise above relegation but the players definitely need to step up their game. I just feel that they are better than many of the teams around them and should be able to make the move and avoid relegation.

[lestat2x]

Hopefully the lineup the coming weeks will reflect a similar set up to what we saw against Everton two weeks ago. I saw an article that Coppell was saying he considered throwing out half of the starting line up then reconsidering; thats obviously not the way to go. The remaining schedule favors us as long as they play consistently.

I think a lot of the problems this season stem from either the back line being no better than a straw house in the wind or the strikers suddenly getting cold feet. With Gunnarson healthy again I just pray that Coppell doesn't succumb to the desire to play him. The pairing of Harper and Matejovsky is right now better than any other combination.

We are getting dangerously close to pushing the panic button though.

[Pablo Chicago]

Ok. 9 games left, 5 away, 4 home.

Liverpool - away
Birmingham - home
Blackburn - home
Newcastle - away
Fulham - home
Arsenal - away
Wigan - away
Tottenham - home
Derby - away

I'm not expecting any points in the away games with Arsenal & Liverpool. Given the Royals away record this season, I think draws against Newcastle and Wigan are the best the most optimistic supporter could hope for. Needless to say, I fully expect the Royals to take 3 from Derby. In total, I think it's reasonable guesstimate that the Royals will pick up 4-5 points from the remaining away games.

Birmingham and Fulham represent our best chances of picking up 6 points from the remaining home games. Given their recent form we'd be very fortunate to get a point out of the Rovers or the Spurs.

So let's say we pick up 10 points from the remaining games. That would give us 38 points for the season, which is probably enough to avoid the drop.

We currently stand a point behind Boro, and point-tied with Wigan and Newcastle. We're a point ahead of Sunderland, 2 points ahead of Birmingham and 3 points ahead of Bolton. It's a six horse race to avoid the last relegation spot and I like our chances.

Boro's next 2 games are away against Villa and Arsenal. Wigan plays Bolton at home, but then has to play Blackburn. Sunderland's next game is against Chelsea. Birmingham plays Portsmouth before us. After Wigan, Bolton visits ManU.

I haven't examined the remaining fixtures for each club in great detail, but after looking at the fixtures over the next couple of weeks, I think we're off to a good start in the relegation race.

[Postmaster]

The last 2 wins obviously help a lot. I worry that the big jump in places will give a false sense of security. Reading is really not far from being back on the brink and needs to keep playing well.

While you can't count on anything, I wouldn't be quick to give up on any away points. Liverpool and Arsenal away are always tough, but Reading's shown some great away grit at times (season opener), the defense seems to be more on track, and one can always hope for a point. Perhaps my glasses are rose-colored, but I see Newcastle and Wigan as opportunities for something. Even away, these are our near-neighbors in the table and, if the team has now emerged from its funk, we should hope for more than a point or two from these two matches. Derby, even away, probably fits in as a must win.

I agree on the home matches (need to do well against the teams below) and that 9 or 10 points will probably secure next season. Reading is still hampered by a relatively unattractive goal differential, so better not make it too close a shave.

[Pablo Chicago]

I sincerly hope Coppell keeps the squad grounded, and reminds them that they played 90 minutes of crap with Boro before Harper put one in from 10 feet, and they didn't get anywhere near City's goal until Dunne got hauled off in a strecher.

I too would like to think we'd pick up points from Newcastle and Wigan, but we've only got one away win all season. Hopefully Newcastle will do nothing to plug up their gaping holes in the back line, and Wigan will still be knackered from holding Arsenal to a draw.

[Laudy]

I sincerly hope Coppell keeps the squad grounded, and reminds them that they played 90 minutes of crap with Boro before Harper put one in from 10 feet, and they didn't get anywhere near City's goal until Dunne got hauled off in a strecher.

I too would like to think we'd pick up points from Newcastle and Wigan, but we've only got one away win all season. Hopefully Newcastle will do nothing to plug up their gaping holes in the back line, and Wigan will still be knackered from holding Arsenal to a draw.

I couldn't agree more. The Boro game was luck and with all the bad luck we have had earlier in the season that was much needed. It seems to me that the team has remained grounded but who am I to judge. I also wonder about the trip to Spain for training, it seems a bit curious. Perhaps, the lads are getting schooled on the proper way to shut down Fernando Torres. Coppell claims the weather plays a factor in things but I think there is more to it than that. I certainly hope they are not celebrating anything as there is definitely nothing to celebrate. Sure back to back wins is nice but in our current situation I would not be celebrating. If we can get a point or more from Liverpool that will go a long way. The worst case would be that we can keep it close because as it was stated previously our goal differential is not something to envy. Derby is a must win as is Newcastle. Wigan is again worrying who will score as Heskey is injured once more. We are in a great position to control our destiny but I fear it could be a trap because if we get complacent one false move and we will plummet back into relegation.

[Postmaster]

I also wonder about the trip to Spain for training, it seems a bit curious. ... Coppell claims the weather plays a factor in things but I think there is more to it than that. I certainly hope they are not celebrating anything as there is definitely nothing to celebrate.

I believe the team made this trip last season and it had been planned before the two wins. So it's not a celebration trip and the message "leave the golf clubs at home -- we're having 2-a-days". Coppell seems the sort who will keep them in touch with the realities. The quick trip up four places in the standings can be equally quick in the other direction.

[Laudy]

I believe the team made this trip last season and it had been planned before the two wins. So it's not a celebration trip and the message "leave the golf clubs at home -- we're having 2-a-days". Coppell seems the sort who will keep them in touch with the realities. The quick trip up four places in the standings can be equally quick in the other direction.

The curious part to me was that they were going to Spain and playing against Torres in the next match. Just a coincidence I'm sure but I was trying to read into it more. I'm always looking for conspiracies.:rolleyes: