"Official" BigSoccer EPL Prediction League

[Fusion City]

Originally posted by Nutty
Thanks Tree!

I think its very cool of you that you're willing to keep running the whole season as well as a seperate 2nd half competition. Its extra work for you and I appreciate it. Thanks for all the time and effort you put into this. Its been fun playing along.
I agree with Nutty It's easy to moan about this & that,but at the end of the day,Tree is putting the effort in so we can all enjoy ourselves...cheers,mate from the silent majority,you're a top bloke!!

[Treetaliano]

again, thanks.

and with that , I'm bumping the thread. 15 days left for new signups

[own goal hat trick]

Back in Week 13, when I was in disbelief over the pick sheet that Kenya put together, I said I'd post some analysis of the sheet and how remarkable it was.

Quite a bit late, granted, but it still strikes me as remarkable. Whether or not you like numbers and probability, I present without further ado (Adu?) ...

A. Points per game. Currently, Kenya sits atop the season standings, with 164 points. These were earned over 205 games, so that's 0.80 points per game, tops out of the 120 of us that are in the EPLPL. It's mathematically possible that someone joined after the start and has higher. If so, keep up the good work and claim your glory in Season 2.

OK, so 0.80 is tops for any person over the season. Kenya busted out with 2.60 in Week 13. Here are the WINNING PPG's per week:

Wk............Gms............Win............PPG
1............10............15............1.50
2............18............20............1.11
3............10............9............0.90
5............13............13............1.00
6............28............27............0.96
7............12............11............0.92
8............10............16............1.60
9............6............11............1.83
10............14............16............1.14
11............24............30............1.25
12............16............22............1.38
13............10............26............2.60
15............3............5............1.67
16............18............21............1.17
17............13............19............1.46

The best of each week, and no other week's performance can get a sniff of 2.60. Not even close ...

B. Probability of picking which way the game is going to go. Home win, road win, or tie. Of course, they're not equally likely. A couple of different ways to look at it suggest that it's about a 50:50 pick. Kenya picked the direction of all ten games, including two ties. To correctly pick a 50:50 ten straight times is about 1 in 1000. BTW, on all three games where the road team won, the exact score was correctly predicted (0-2, 0-3, 1-2). Yes, Kenya, your Week 13 is still sick.

C. Probability of correctly picking a score. There are a lot of ways to do this. Depending on the assumptions, you get different answers, yadda yadda yadda ... but let's put the probability of getting an exact score at 1 in 8. Again, if you think the number is higher, shut up and do it and claim your scarf in May. To do something that has a probability of 1 in 8 six or more times in ten tries, you're talking a probability of 1 in 2000. Not as astronomical as I first thought, impressive nonetheless.

I guess if you have 100 of us doing this over 40 weeks, we should expect it to happen again. Hope it's me ...

~OG3

[flanoverseas]

Originally posted by Treetaliano
again, thanks.

and with that , I'm bumping the thread. 15 days left for new signups out of curiosity, should someone join who hasn't got a clue about the league just for fun? Or will that water down the pool? (puns rule)

[Treetaliano]

Originally posted by flanoverseas
out of curiosity, should someone join who hasn't got a clue about the league just for fun? Or will that water down the pool? (puns rule)

Go ahead and join anyways..if you suck too badly I'll just mock you in Amsterdam in February :D

[Treetaliano]

Week 18 Results Posted

Week 18 Cup winner
SecretJoe - 16 pts

Overall Leader
Kenya - 171 pts

Overall Leader History
Week 17 Kenya
Week 16 own goal hat trick
Week 15 own goal hat trick
Week 14 own goal hat trick
Week 13 own goal hat trick
Week 12 own goal hat trick
Week 11 own goal hat trick
Week 10 NorCalStunna
Week 9 NorCalStunna
Week 8 NorCalStunna
Week 7 csc7, NorCalStunna
Week 6 csc7
Week 5 csc7
Week 4 texasross
Week 3 texasross
Week 2 texasross
Week 1 paulo, texasross, GPK

[Treetaliano]

bump

13 days left

[Treetaliano]

12....

[Clan]

Tree with a new and improved way of increasing post count <---------------Clanblue getting in on the act :D

[own goal hat trick]

You guys don't need to up your post count.
~OG3

[own goal hat trick]

Really, you don't.
~OG3

[Treetaliano]

11 days to go...

[Treetaliano]

10...

[Treetaliano]

9..

[Treetaliano]

8....

[Treetaliano]

Week 19 Results Posted

Week 19 Cup winner
tab5g - 22 pts

Overall Leader
Kenya - 186 pts

Overall Leader History
Week 18 Kenya
Week 17 Kenya
Week 16 own goal hat trick
Week 15 own goal hat trick
Week 14 own goal hat trick
Week 13 own goal hat trick
Week 12 own goal hat trick
Week 11 own goal hat trick
Week 10 NorCalStunna
Week 9 NorCalStunna
Week 8 NorCalStunna
Week 7 csc7, NorCalStunna
Week 6 csc7
Week 5 csc7
Week 4 texasross
Week 3 texasross
Week 2 texasross
Week 1 paulo, texasross, GPK

[Treetaliano]

6 days left...

[Treetaliano]

5 more...

[Treetaliano]

Final bump...starts tomorrow!

[Steve@HC]

Thanks for the work Tree.

Now I've got something else to do at work, other than work.