Der Club! The FCN thread 07/08 part II[R]

[footyfan1]

All is possible again now. 4 points out of the last 2 games against Hertha & Schalke should be enough to keep the league...


History says Bielefeld will pull one or three points against BVB on Saturday. BVB's record in Bielefeld is dismal.

Do you really see FCN beating Hertha in what will be Hertha's final home match of the season and/or Schalke, who will probably need a victory to have any hope of either getting into or holding on to second place??

I want FCN staying up to happen, but I can't quite see it happening.

But then again, as I said before, if we knew everything that was going to happen in football, we wouldn't have to work! ;)

[BillPaul]

That's quite an endeavor, I sure hope they're able to get three or four points.

[Borussia]

Do you really see FCN beating Hertha in what will be Hertha's final home match of the season and/or Schalke, who will probably need a victory to have any hope of either getting into or holding on to second place??


They will draw in Berlin and beat Schalke at home (if needed).

Don't you remember how they once defeated the leader Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 at Frankenstadion in their last home game and secured the league under Klaus Augenthaler, crowning your guys from BVB to the champion? I know they have a bad home bilance against Schalke at Frankenstadion ... nevertheless, I can see them getting the crucial home win!

And why shouldn't they manage to get 3 points in Berlin?

How mentioned, it's surely no easy task ... but definitely possible (if they play as they did in the 1st half against Duisburg)!

We'll see...

[footyfan1]

They will draw in Berlin and beat Schalke at home (if needed).

I can't in my wildest dreams imagine them beating Schalke if Schalke still has something to play for.

Don't you remember how they once defeated the leader Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 at Frankenstadion in their last home game and secured the league under Klaus Augenthaler, crowning your guys from BVB to the champion?

Of course I do. I was in Hamburg that day. I called Tony Sanneh to thank him after the match. That doesn't mean it will happen again.


I know they have a bad home bilance against Schalke at Frankenstadion ... nevertheless, I can see them getting the crucial home win!

I wish I could see that. Maybe I should drink a lot tonight and then I can probably see it. LOL!! ;)


And why shouldn't they get 3 points in Berlin?

For the same reason Leverkusen let Berlin leave there with three points last night.


How mentioned, it's surely no easy task ... but definitely possible (if they play like they did in the 1st half against Duisburg)!

What if they play like they did in the second half against Duisburg?? :rolleyes:


We'll see...

Yes, we'll see.

[Borussia]

I can't in my wildest dreams imagine them beating Schalke if Schalke still has something to play for.


Leverkusen had to play for the championship ... nevertheless, they lost in Nürnberg (and finally the championship to BVB).

[footyfan1]

Leverkusen had to play for the championship ... nevertheless, they lost in Nürnberg (and finally the championship to BVB).

Schalke isn't Leverkusen. And this isn't that Nuernberg team. It also isn't 2002.

Just because FCN did something once nearly six years ago doesn't mean they are going to do it two weeks in a row now.

Since you like to hark back to the past so much, should I remind you of FCN and Freiburg on the final day of the 98-99 season??

You know, when all FCN needed was a freakin' draw at home to stay in the league and they couldn't even do that against a team that wasn't half as good as this Schalke team??? :rolleyes:

[aloisius]

I can't in my wildest dreams imagine them beating Schalke if Schalke still has something to play for.



how do you quntify "your wildest dreams"?

nurnberg beating schalke at home is something that is very realistically possible .

the probability of it is somewhere around 30 to 40 percent .

it's not like schalke are some unbeatable team that hasn't lost a game all season.

[Borussia]

http://www.kicker.de/news/fussball/bundesliga/spieltag/spielpaarungsbericht/object/807852

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/report?id=224835&cc=5739


Wow, what suffering 90 minutes for all FCN fans today! The unlucky 0:1 defeat in Berlin made them being relegated ... until a 10-men Dortmund team scored the late equalizer in Bielefeld and saved their ass! Finally some fortune after all the bad luck they have been confronted with this season...

Now there'll be a real "Endspiel" against Schalke at Frankenstadion next weekend (both teams have to win)! Nürnberg was almost "clinical dead" this afternoon ... and after getting the "2nd life" just 8 minutes before the end, I think they will take their last chance and beat Schalke with the home support! Then they will have to pray that Bielefeld will not get an away win in Stuttgart...

Good luck.

Well, the friendship between parts of both fanships surely won't exist during this match...;)

[Klask]

Many times the referees seem to hold back on giving FCN the penalties they should have had.. Not only about the penalty not given today but in general. Against BVB Kovac vs Vittek, Ismael vs. Charisteas duel in Hannover, Mintal pulled down by Kristajic in the in the 1-2 defeat to Schalke etc.

Frei's goal was very lucky for FCN and against a Schalke team that only convinced somewhat on the scoreboard it's not impossible to get 3 points. I don't believe Bielefeld will win in Stuttgart and I'm surprised by their attitude shown against Bayern. The seemed like a mid table team who had nothing to play for and were just waiting for the season to end.

Here's how it's going to go down:

Stuttgart - Bielefeld 4-1

FCN - S04 1-0 (Koller with the header 88' minutes)

:D

[Borussia]

Many times the referees seem to hold back on giving FCN the penalties they should have had.. Not only about the penalty not given today but in general. Against BVB Kovac vs Vittek, Ismael vs. Charisteas duel in Hannover, Mintal pulled down by Kristajic in the in the 1-2 defeat to Schalke etc.


Yep, they have been very unlucky with referee decisions & with hitting the bar/post this season...




Here's how it's going to go down:

Stuttgart - Bielefeld 4-1

FCN - S04 1-0


That's my prediction, too.


Btw: This incredible goal saved their ass yesterday. :eek: ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rrvm5Eyx8cU

Bielefeld was so lucky during the last games ... that the football god decided to punish them! :-)

[Hobo]

Since you like to hark back to the past so much, should I remind you of FCN and Freiburg on the final day of the 98-99 season??



I was in the Frankenstadion that day...pulling for Freiburg, but I have Nürnberg sympathies. Nonetheless, I left the scene as quickly as possible after the final whistle.

[Vfbstuttgartfan]

I must admit I don't really see Nuernberg having much chance after this weekend's results. Winning against a much stronger, more on-form Schalke side who are still battling for an automatic CL berth? Personally, I don't think so.

[footyfan1]

how do you quntify "your wildest dreams"?

nurnberg beating schalke at home is something that is very realistically possible .

the probability of it is somewhere around 30 to 40 percent .

it's not like schalke are some unbeatable team that hasn't lost a game all season.



No, but they are a team that is thirty freakin' points better than FCN with their own reasons for needing to win the match.

Every team in any football match has a 30 or 40 percent chance to win. Tell me something I don't already know.

I just don't see FCN beating Schalke. I'd like it to happen, but I can't visualize it.

You think it's "very realistically possible." I think it's nearly impossible. My realistic view is that everyone has a chance from the opening whistle to closing whistle, but I don't see FCN winning this one. You can give me all the f#cking percentages you want, but I don't see FCN winning this match.

I didn't see BVB beating Schalke on the penultimate Saturday last season, but we did. However, FCN won't have nearly 80,000 screaming zealots on their side wanting to keep their blood rivals from claiming a title.

Nuernberg's best chance is that Schalke shits their pants as they did in Dortmund last season.

And last season is exactly why I don't see Schalke shitting their pants this time.......

[aloisius]

Every team in any football match has a 30 or 40 percent chance to win. Tell me something I don't already know.

no they don't .

rostock away at bayern have a 6-8 % chance of winning . bayern have an 80% chance of winning it, and there's a 12-14 % of a draw.

this is of course just roughly speaking. so, no every team in every match doesn't have a 30-40 % of winning.

And nurnberg don’t have the same chances of winning this game as rostock have of winning away to bayern.



You think it's "very realistically possible." I think it's nearly impossible. My realistic view is that everyone has a chance from the opening whistle to closing whistle, but I don't see FCN winning this one. You can give me all the f#cking percentages you want, but I don't see FCN winning this match.

Just had a look at bookie site. Here’s how they distribute the probabilities for this match:

Nurnberg 35 %
Schalke 40 %
Draw 25 %

And they make money out of correctly accessing the probability of outcomes.




Nuernberg's best chance is that Schalke shits their pants as they did in Dortmund last season.



other than playing really well, i think their best chance is werder leading by 2 or more goals in leverkusen at half time. Or someone telling schalke players that.

[footyfan1]

no they don't .

rostock away at bayern have a 6-8 % chance of winning . bayern have an 80% chance of winning it, and there's a 12-14 % of a draw.

this is of course just roughly speaking. so, no every team in every match doesn't have a 30-40 % of winning.

And nurnberg don’t have the same chances of winning this game as rostock have of winning away to bayern.


Just had a look at bookie site. Here’s how they distribute the probabilities for this match:

Nurnberg 35 %
Schalke 40 %
Draw 25 %

And they make money out of correctly accessing the probability of outcomes.



Well, that must make them the great authorities right?? They are 100% right? If they're not, you just shot your whole argument to hell.

Because no matter whether they make money at it or not, they f#cking guess just like the rest of us!

And when they are wrong, they pay for it. That's why it is called GAMBLING! Nothing is certain, not even their word! That's what's so great about this game!

They guess Schalke is going to win, but are trying to account for the chance of a final day upset. They CAN'T go full Schalke, because if the odd upset does happen, they will pay out the ass.

I don't have to pay if I'm wrong and I can give my full opinion on the match.

I don't have to worry about losing my ass if FCN wins. Which is why I said I CAN'T SEE FCN WINNING this match. I didn't say "they have no chance to win this match!"

As far as FCN's chances of winning this match being 35%? They can kiss my ass.

Ask any bookie who their personal money would be on for this match. I can call one up and ask him right now, but I don't have to. Because I know where his money is on this match.

Come on man. You think I don't know how gambling works? You think I've never dealt with bookies before???

I've been around the block a little bit.




other than playing really well, i think their best chance is werder leading by 2 or more goals in leverkusen at half time. Or someone telling schalke players that.

Both teams will have a clamp down on that. Schalke will get word if Bremen is losing from official sources and that's it. Only the fans' cheering or moaning will give it away.

Just had the same thing at the Allianz Arena this past weekend at the 1860 match. They wouldn't say what was going on with Kaiserslautern and Offenbach during the match. Just near the end of halftime.

[aloisius]

Well, that must make them the great authorities right?? They are 100% right? If they're not, you just shot your whole argument to hell.


Of course they can be wrong by about 10-20 percent, but you’re not arguing that the probability of a nurnberg win is 30 or 28 % instead of 35 % that the bookies say.

From your posts I would say you think the probability of nurnberg winning is about 5-8% .

They aren’t that wrong.



Because no matter whether they make money at it or not, they f#cking guess just like the rest of us!


Not really, they use objective criteria to set the initial odds and then adjust according to the flow of the money.



They guess Schalke is going to win, but are trying to account for the chance of a final day upset. They CAN'T go full Schalke, because if the odd upset does happen, they will pay out the ass.




Their estimate is that schalke is only the slightest of favorites in this game.

The odds on schalke and nurnberg are only slightly different .

[Borussia]

I think it's nearly impossible. My realistic view is that everyone has a chance from the opening whistle to closing whistle, but I don't see FCN winning this one. You can give me all the f#cking percentages you want, but I don't see FCN winning this match.



Schaun mer mal...

I've talked to Peer Kluge on Sunday

http://img102.imageshack.us/img102/9899/pic0807ho4.jpg

... and he's pretty confident about getting the vital win. Schalke might be the favs, but they have to play in a sold-out Frankenstadion (47,000) against 11 Nuremberg players who are surely gonna run for their lives!

[Borussia]

Btw: It might be possible that I'll get a free ticket for this brisant match. Actually I had sworn to not attend any games at Frankenstadion (except for Borussia away matches or derbies against Fürth) as long as Mr. Roth is their president (the Hans Meyer dismissal story was simply too shocking & annoying) ... but I think that such a massive game would be worth of making an exception (especially with a free ticket)! ;)

Have to wait up a friend's call tomorrow...

[footyfan1]

Schaun mer mal...

I've talked to Peer Kluge on Sunday

http://img102.imageshack.us/img102/9899/pic0807ho4.jpg

... and he's pretty confident about getting the vital win. Schalke might be the favs, but they have to play in a sold-out Frankenstadion (47,000) against 11 Nuremberg players who are surely gonna run for their lives!

What's he going to tell you, "Dude, we have no chance, don't waste your time?" :rolleyes:

[Borussia]

;)

Peer Kluge won't relegate for the 2nd time in a row. :-)