Colombia's position throughout WCQ

[Alonso#13]

Fourth place is not a bad place to be after three games considering that we played Brazil and La Paz in our first two matches. Would like to see more goals scored for Colombia though because we all know how important goal differential can be.

Argentina 9pts. +7
Paraguay 7pts. +5
Brazil 5pts. +5
Colombia 5pts +1
Uruguay 4pts. +4
Chile 4pts. 0
Venezuela 3pts. -2
Peru 2pts. -2
Bolivia 1pt. -8
Ecuador 0pt. -10

[MrPaisa]

Fourth place is not a bad place to be after three games considering that we played Brazil and La Paz in our first two matches. Would like to see more goals scored for Colombia though because we all know how important goal differential can be.

Argentina 9pts. +7
Paraguay 7pts. +5
Brazil 5pts. +5
Colombia 5pts +1
Uruguay 4pts. +4
Chile 4pts. 0
Venezuela 3pts. -2
Peru 2pts. -2
Bolivia 1pt. -8
Ecuador 0pt. -10

lol

[Alonso#13]

lol

you are an evil guy! even though i would like for Ecuador to have a successful campaign at least we no longer have to hear their sh!t about how their football is better than ours. However im sure they are going to be ungrateful and blame it solely on LFS.

[MrPaisa]

we'll see them do that even after they finish with 0 points after 12 games.

[ryu79]

Fourth place is not a bad place to be after three games considering that we played Brazil and La Paz in our first two matches. Would like to see more goals scored for Colombia though because we all know how important goal differential can be.

Argentina 9pts. +7
Paraguay 7pts. +5
Brazil 5pts. +5
Colombia 5pts +1
Uruguay 4pts. +4
Chile 4pts. 0
Venezuela 3pts. -2
Peru 2pts. -2
Bolivia 1pt. -8
Ecuador 0pt. -10

That is freaking fantastic considering we've had the toughest schedule so far!

The fight is gonna be between Uruguay, Chile and us - and its only gonna get tougher because Chile's got a team of kids that are very gifted, once Bielsa gets a hang of them, they will be hella dangerous.

[crzdcolombian]

basically

Paraguay has beaten a weakened Ecuador, had a lucky game against Uruguay and a tough game against peru(who tied BRASIL TOO)

still very open I think that its just like we all think

Brasil/Arg better than everyone tho brasil away from home isnt really impressing me

Colo/Paraguay/Uruguay/Chile 3-5 too bad there only 2.5 places

Ven/Peru getting better and can suprise

Ecuador/Boliva have no chance and should start thinkin about 2014, hopefully boliva will steal alot of points from our direct opponents

[Alonso#13]

So far it seems as things are going our way, even though we have only scored one goal the teams we are competing with for positions 3-5 have been tying their games. Hopefully Colombia can turn El Campin into a fortress and not give up any points to Peru,Chile,Uruguay,Paraguay.

[dapip]

I started thinking about this last night. There is a measurement from the old days, called the English Median or something like that. Supposedly a team should won all home games and tie abroad, in order to be in contention. But that was when a win was worth 2 points, not 3. However, I think that we can elaborate on the concept based on the following assumptions:

We will have 3 Categories of teams (Based on results so far):

Cat. 1: Argentina & Brazil
Cat. 2: Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia
Cat. 3: Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia

Then my assumption is that a Cat 1. team should beat any team at home, tie Cat 1 and Cat 2 when visiting and beat Cat 3 at their place. Cat 2 probably will tie Cat 1s at home, lose with them when visiting, beat other cat 2 at home, tie them when visiting and beat cat 3 away and at home. Cat 3 really only can hope to beat Cat 3 at home, tie the cat 2s at home and take a point from their visits to other Cat 3s. To make my point, that is the measure of points that you expect them to win, not reality.

According to this:

Brazil and Argentina are expected make= 27+4+12=43 points.
Cat 2 teams are expected to make 2+21+7=30 points.
Cat 3 teams are expected to make 9+4+3=16 points.

I am not predicting again, that is the bar they'll be measured against. Reality-Expected= "Qualifiers Median" or QM. The scores do not add up BTW.

Now we have the table of results:

Argentina 9 pts: Beat Cat 2 at home, Beat Cat 3 away, Beat Cat 3 at home: Expected 9pts: QM=0
Paraguay 7 pts: Tied Cat 3 away, Beat cat 2 at home, beat cat 3 at home: QM=0
Brasil 5 pts: Tied cat 2 away, beat cat 3 at home, tied cat 3 away: QM=-2
Colombia: Tied cat 1 at home, tied cat 3 abroad, beat cat 3 at home: QM=0
Uruguay: 4pts: Beat cat 3 at home, lost against cat 2 away, tied cat 2 at home: QM=-3
Chile 4pts: Lost against cat 1, beat cat 3 at home, tied cat 2 away: QM=0

So far Argentina, Paraguay, Chile and Colombia are doing what is expected from them. Uruguay and Brasil are behind of what they're supposed to have today.

--------------------------
While I am giving the info, this part of the table should not be relevant to the final results:

Venezuela 3 pts: Beat Cat 3 away, lost to cat 1 at home, lost to cat 2 away: QM=+2.
Peru 2pts: tied cat 2 at home, lost to cat 2 away, tied cat 1 at home: QM=+1
Bolivia: lost against cat 2 away, tied cat 2 at home, lost cat away: QM=0
Ecuador: lost against cat 3 at home, against cat 1 away, against cat 2 away: QM=-3.

[MrPaisa]

I started thinking about this last night. There is a measurement from the old days, called the English Median or something like that. Supposedly a team should won all home games and tie abroad, in order to be in contention. But that was when a win was worth 2 points, not 3. However, I think that we can elaborate on the concept based on the following assumptions:

We will have 3 Categories of teams (Based on results so far):

Cat. 1: Argentina & Brazil
Cat. 2: Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia
Cat. 3: Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia

Then my assumption is that a Cat 1. team should beat any team at home, tie Cat 1 and Cat 2 when visiting and beat Cat 3 at their place. Cat 2 probably will tie Cat 1s at home, lose with them when visiting, beat other cat 2 at home, tie them when visiting and beat cat 3 away and at home. Cat 3 really only can hope to beat Cat 3 at home, tie the cat 2s at home and take a point from their visits to other Cat 3s. To make my point, that is the measure of points that you expect them to win, not reality.

According to this:

Brazil and Argentina are expected make= 27+4+12=43 points.
Cat 2 teams are expected to make 2+21+7=30 points.
Cat 3 teams are expected to make 9+4+3=16 points.

I am not predicting again, that is the bar they'll be measured against. Reality-Expected= "Qualifiers Median" or QM. The scores do not add up BTW.

Now we have the table of results:

Argentina 9 pts: Beat Cat 2 at home, Beat Cat 3 away, Beat Cat 3 at home: Expected 9pts: QM=0
Paraguay 7 pts: Tied Cat 3 away, Beat cat 2 at home, beat cat 3 at home: QM=0
Brasil 5 pts: Tied cat 2 away, beat cat 3 at home, tied cat 3 away: QM=-2
Colombia: Tied cat 1 at home, tied cat 3 abroad, beat cat 3 at home: QM=0
Uruguay: 4pts: Beat cat 3 at home, lost against cat 2 away, tied cat 2 at home: QM=-3
Chile 4pts: Lost against cat 1, beat cat 3 at home, tied cat 2 away: QM=0

So far Argentina, Paraguay, Chile and Colombia are doing what is expected from them. Uruguay and Brasil are behind of what they're supposed to have today.

--------------------------
While I am giving the info, this part of the table should not be relevant to the final results:

Venezuela 3 pts: Beat Cat 3 away, lost to cat 1 at home, lost to cat 2 away: QM=+2.
Peru 2pts: tied cat 2 at home, lost to cat 2 away, tied cat 1 at home: QM=+1
Bolivia: lost against cat 2 away, tied cat 2 at home, lost cat away: QM=0
Ecuador: lost against cat 3 at home, against cat 1 away, against cat 2 away: QM=-3.


wow, boy do you have free time on your hands :)

[dapip]

wow, boy do you have free time on your hands :)

Well, some free time a quick mind and fast hands.... :p

[CtrlAlltDel]

you are presuming that the progress can be expected to be monotonic with incremental gradients or subgradiants. But I do not think that method of analysis is apt due to the fact that chance plays such an integral part of the final positions of each team in the WC qualifying table.
after you have a greater amount of matches played (%50 of them perhaps?), with more statistics to reference, you could possibly make more accurate predictions. it is so early in the qualifiers that you could even look at the team comparisons and their future results/rankings surjectively, especially with the way Paraguay is playing.

[dapip]

you are presuming that the progress can be expected to be monotonic with incremental gradients or subgradiants. But I do not think that method of analysis is apt due to the fact that chance plays such an integral part of the final positions of each team in the WC qualifying table.
after you have a greater amount of matches played (%50 of them perhaps?), with more statistics to reference, you could possibly make more accurate predictions. it is so early in the qualifiers that you could even look at the team comparisons and their future results/rankings surjectively, especially with the way Paraguay is playing.

Of course it is very simplistic, because basically is base on what I assume each team is expected to do. But basically it is very true for the middle of the pack teams: 30 points seem to be a likely target. I am not expecting this measure to predict who will qualify, only to tell who is doing what is expected from them.

[jinks]

Nice thinking. Looks a good emphasis for results.

I have to admit that nearly enough every team has upped their stakes so having a 27 point threshold to auto qualify isnt unrealistic now. Taking points from the 2 big boys wasnt seen much in previous qualifiers.

But damn nice analysis but I hate us being placed in a Cat. 2. :D were should be seeing ourselves as Cat +1

[yj777]

Of course it is very simplistic, because basically is base on what I assume each team is expected to do. But basically it is very true for the middle of the pack teams: 30 points seem to be a likely target. I am not expecting this measure to predict who will qualify, only to tell who is doing what is expected from them.

Your analysis is every similar to the one i did previously.. one of the differences being that i place Paraguay in the upper tier.

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=13258083&postcount=44

The scores and standings are (mostly) not accidental.
The chances of Ecuador and Bolivia turning their ship around and qualifying
to the WC are slim to none.
The main zone of equilibrium will be Chile / Uruguay / Colombia and i expect two of those teams to make it to the WC along with Argentina, Brasil and Paraguay.

[MrPaisa]

Paraguay will lose to both Argentina and Brazil. You can subtract minimum of 3 points lost by them or maximum of 6 they won't be able to collect.

Brazil we already tied, we won 1 point. We will prob. not gain the 3 or the 1 at Maracana.

Argentina, if we win, we will have 3, if we tie tommorow we will have 1. Expect no more than 1-3 points from Argentina. Don't be surprised if we have 0 points from these guys.

Let's see what happens when Paraguay plays Brazil, Argentina and La Paz. I would like to see where they are ranked after that. Also after they play Chile, Colombia...

Then again, Peru tied with Brazil, and not sure if Brazil will let the 3 points against Paraguay slip away, Dunga might seek blood after Wed's game. Paraguay will face the wrath of a desperate Brazilian side and a hotstreak Argentina. Bolivia might play an ultra defense or heavy offense in the second half to reclaim at least some home field advantage.

I really think Paraguay is being overestimated by alot of people.

[efernandez9]

paraguay vuelve a la altura de quito a perder
ecuas tienen que jugar este partido como el ultimo chance
Y de ganar los ecuas, se empareja esto mucho - por todos lados
igualan a venezuela y salen del fondo
Yo no veo como Venezuela pueda con 3 pts esta semana, ese equipo es muy pobre futbolisticamente hablando. Hay que rezar por el empate de Chile en santiago para mantener distancias.

[ryu79]

I started thinking about this last night. There is a measurement from the old days, called the English Median or something like that. Supposedly a team should won all home games and tie abroad, in order to be in contention. But that was when a win was worth 2 points, not 3. However, I think that we can elaborate on the concept based on the following assumptions:


Simple but logical. I think it would work if each team had some sort of weighting implied on their consistency in previous campaigns (this would dictate the std. deviation), and then you could run simulations but they'd only tell you what team's SHOULD do or really aim for realistically.

But then anything can happen on the pitch and there is a reason we play the game. I hope tmrw is one of those that break the norm for Colombia!

[colombo]

Your analysis is every similar to the one i did previously.. one of the differences being that i place Paraguay in the upper tier.



Cookie again!!

[colombo]

According to this:

Brazil and Argentina are expected make= 27+4+12=43 points.
Cat 2 teams are expected to make 2+21+7=30 points.
Cat 3 teams are expected to make 9+4+3=16 points.



Not very acqurate, compared with 2006 actual results:

Argentina 34
Brasil 34
Paraguay 28
Ecuador 28
Uruguay 25
Colombia 24
Chile 22
Venezuela 18
Perú 18
Bolivia 14

[dapip]

Not very acqurate, compared with 2006 actual results:

Argentina 34
Brasil 34
Paraguay 28
Ecuador 28
Uruguay 25
Colombia 24
Chile 22
Venezuela 18
Perú 18
Bolivia 14

Pero para la eliminatoria a Korea/Japon, Argentina basicamente hizo esa cantidad de puntos (43) y aunque Brasil decepciono (-14 de mi QM), Ecuador y Paraguay estuvieron exactamente en lo que yo propongo.

1.Argentina 43
2.Ecuador 31
3.Brazil 30
4.Paraguay 30
5.Uruguay 27
6.Colombia 27
7.Bolivia 18
8.Peru 16
9.Venezuela 16
10.Chile 12


Aun asi, en ningun momento dije que mi medida se basara en eliminatorias anteriores. Es una medida subjetiva creada con base en lo que se ha visto hasta ahora y tal vez hay algo de historia.

El concepto es el siguiente:

Medir lo que cada equipo ha hecho comparado con lo que se espera de el.

En numeros, Ptos ganados vs. Ptos que se espera que ganen.

En el post inicial explico como llegue a la medida: De Brasil y Argentina se espera que ganen todo a excepcion de sus visitas al otro rival y a los del segundo escalafon: Basicamente 13 partidos ganados y 5 empates, que suman 44 no 43 puntos como dije. Obviamente no se va a dar, pero es lo que se espera de ellos.

De los de media tabla, tal vez este numero se acerca mas a la realidad: 30 puntos, que ademas son la garantia de ir al mundial.