Euro 2008- the seeding system

[wombacik]

C1 doen't have to be Netherlands, even if they're drawn to group C. If i recall right group positions except A1 and B1 are also random. Anyone to back this up?

You're wrong. The positions of C1 and D1 would not be random. But all other 12 teams would have a random position in their respective group.

So only Greece and Netherlands (Croatia) could be C1 and D1.

[Phase4Nightmare]

You're wrong. The positions of C1 and D1 would not be random. But all other 12 teams would have a random position in their respective group.

So only Greece and Netherlands (Croatia) could be C1 and D1.

You're right, from uefa:
Filling first positions
The draw will start with Pot 1 in order to fill the first position in each group. A first ball will be drawn from Pot 1 and the drawn team placed into the first position in Group C. Thereafter, the second ball from Pot 1 will be drawn and the respective team will be placed into the first position of Group D.

[BocaFan]

The German association has officially asked questions of Uefa about it, and the Dutch have mentioned it too.

Well, then they are just retarded! This is a freak one-time occurance that will probably never happen again in our lifetime.

They could take-away the automatic #1 seed from host nations and defending champs, but then what happens when France hosts the Euros and Italy are the defending champions?? Yup, you could have the same problem. And Italy are more likely to be defending champions more often than Greece in the long-term.

Using your brain is like driving. You have to look beyond the hood of your car. :rolleyes:


Does this mean we'll have to drop points v Luxembourg?

No. You see, because being in pot #1 isn't the worst thing that could happen even if (big IF) it results in you getting stuck in the group of death.

Besides, dropping points to Luxembourg could see Holland get a tougher World Cup qualifying group before losing against Switzerland in Euro 2008 anyway.

[Sagy]

Besides, dropping points to Luxembourg could see Holland get a tougher World Cup qualifying group before losing against Switzerland in Euro 2008 anyway.No way.


WCQ groups are going to be based on FIFA ranking not points/game :(. Currently, the Netherlands is number 3 in UEFA (http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=27275&rank=161). Even if they were to lose to Luxembourg there are not 7 UEFA teams that can pass them.
If the good old system was in place and the Netherlands were to lose the last two games, they will end up with 2.29 average. Only 7 teams can finish higher than that: Croatia, Sweden, Romania, Germany, England, Czech Rep, and Italy. As a result, the Netherlands is assured of being in pot 1 (worst case they will be 8th).

[johan neeskens]

Well, then they are just retarded! This is a freak one-time occurance that will probably never happen again in our lifetime.

They could take-away the automatic #1 seed from host nations and defending champs, but then what happens when France hosts the Euros and Italy are the defending champions?? Yup, you could have the same problem. And Italy are more likely to be defending champions more often than Greece in the long-term.

Using your brain is like driving. You have to look beyond the hood of your car. :rolleyes:



No. You see, because being in pot #1 isn't the worst thing that could happen even if (big IF) it results in you getting stuck in the group of death.

Besides, dropping points to Luxembourg could see Holland get a tougher World Cup qualifying group before losing against Switzerland in Euro 2008 anyway.

Look, all the nations who are potentially affected by this are complaining that's it's an unfair seeding system. Who are you to be telling them that it's not unfair? If that's how they feel, that's how they feel, and what you think about it won't change that.

Fact is that the system the way it is now potentially punishes a good qualifying performance and as such potentially affects results in the last games of the qualifying campaign as some countries feel they'd be better off losing a couple of points.

Also if you think for one second that a group with Austria as first seed is on a par with a group that has Germany or the Netherlands as a first seed, you are a very strange individual.

[BocaFan]

No way.

[LIST=1]
WCQ groups are going to be based on FIFA ranking not points/game :(. Currently, the Netherlands is number 3 in

No, they are #5 in UEFA.

Anyway, it is never good to lose.

[BocaFan]

Look, all the nations who are potentially affected by this are complaining that's it's an unfair seeding system. Who are you to be telling them that it's not unfair? If that's how they feel, that's how they feel, and what you think about it won't change that.

Fact is that the system the way it is now potentially punishes a good qualifying performance and as such potentially affects results in the last games of the qualifying campaign as some countries feel they'd be better off losing a couple of points.

Also if you think for one second that a group with Austria as first seed is on a par with a group that has Germany or the Netherlands as a first seed, you are a very strange individual.

I'm not saying that. I'm saying that the group of death could very well be the Switzerland or Greece group. It's way too early to tell for sure.

So instead of whining about the current format, do you have a suggesting for a better format? Ideally one that wouldn't create a similar problem when France or Italy are the hosts.

Before telling us about your proposed new format that would work so well, remember that even if Austria and Switzerland weren't given automatic #1 seeds, pot 2 would still be stronger than pot 1 right now.

This is pot 1 would probably look like in that scenerio: Holland, Greece, Croatia Sweden.
....And pot 2 in that scenerio: Germany, Italy, Czechs, Romania (with France possibly moving up to pot 2)

[johan neeskens]

I'm not saying that. I'm saying that the group of death could very well be the Switzerland or Greece group. It's way too early to tell for sure.

So instead of whining about the current format, do you have a suggesting for a better format? Ideally one that wouldn't create a similar problem when France or Italy are the hosts.

Before telling us about your proposed new format that would work so well, remember that even if Austria and Switzerland weren't given automatic #1 seeds, pot 2 would still be stronger than pot 1 right now.

This is pot 1 would probably look like in that scenerio: Holland, Greece, Croatia Sweden.
....And pot 2 in that scenerio: Germany, Italy, Czechs, Romania (with France possibly moving up to pot 2)


Eh? I never proposed an alternative system! I merely pointed out that for Euro 2008, being a no. 1 seed won't do you any favours at the draw. The fact that there are two (relatively weak) host nations and one (relatively weak) holder makes this a unique situation. What I'm interested in is how the countries that are potentially affected by this react to it all now that we're in the final stages of hte qualifying campaign. In short, I think it's a unique and interesting situation.

As for the Dutch, we tend to end up in the group of death anyway, we're quite used to that. And in a way it's better for us to be in a group with a top favourite like Germany as that means we probably won't meet them again in the knock-out stages, not until the final at least. Which is a good thing for us as we're notoriously rubbish at taking penalties.

[Sagy]

No, they are #5 in UEFA.

I beg to defer. at the time of the post (hence the "Currently" and the link) Netherlands was 3rd in UEFA. As you can see one loss is not all that costly for the Netherlands (under the new FIFA ranking system all loses count the same - 0 points and a game played)

Anyway, it is never good to lose.Actually, in this case it might be "good to lose" (which is the whole point of this discussion).

[wombacik]

Here are updated pots:

Pot 1
Austria host
Switzerland host
Greece title defender
Netherlands 2,521

Pot 2
Croatia 2,380
Germany 2,363
Italy 2,333
Czech Rep. 2,304

Pot 3
England 2,285
Portugal 2,240
Sweden 2,238
Poland 2,217

Pot 4
Romania 2,217
Spain 2,142
France 2,142
Turkey 1,913

Note, that in case of the same average, the higher ranked team is a one with better goal difference in the last two qualifying campaigns.

[Spartak]

Here are updated pots:

Pot 1
Austria host
Switzerland host
Greece title defender
Netherlands 2,521

Pot 2
Croatia 2,380
Germany 2,363
Italy 2,333
Czech Rep. 2,304

Pot 3
England 2,285
Portugal 2,240
Sweden 2,238
Poland 2,217

Pot 4
Romania 2,217
Spain 2,142
France 2,142
Turkey 1,913

Note, that in case of the same average, the higher ranked team is a one with better goal difference in the last two qualifying campaigns.

Wow, can you imagine:

Netherlands
Italy
Portugal
France

Three of the WC semifinalists plus Holland. I don't think the Euros have ever had a a group as tough as this.

[Sagy]

Wow, can you imagine:

Netherlands
Italy
Portugal
France

Three of the WC semifinalists plus Holland. I don't think the Euros have ever had a a group as tough as this.

Or how about:
Netherlands
Germany
England
Spain

Only 1 WC semi finalist , but not much weaker (if at all based on current form).

I think that any group in this Euro will be tougher than most WC groups.

[Cris 09]

Or how about:
Netherlands
Germany
England
Spain

Only 1 WC semi finalist , but not much weaker (if at all based on current form).

I think that any group in this Euro will be tougher than most WC groups.

Not to mentioned the tradition in rivalries the Dutch and Germans have between them along with the English and to a lesser extent, German rivalry too.

[benficafan3]

Wow, whoever gets Austria in their group is God damn lucky.

[BocaFan]

Wow, can you imagine:

Netherlands
Italy
Portugal
France

Three of the WC semifinalists plus Holland. I don't think the Euros have ever had a a group as tough as this.

And there's a 99% chance we won't see a group that tough this time either.

[Edgar]

Here are updated pots:

Pot 1
Austria host
Switzerland host
Greece title defender
Netherlands 2,521

Pot 2
Croatia 2,380
Germany 2,363
Italy 2,333
Czech Rep. 2,304

Pot 3
England 2,285
Portugal 2,240
Sweden 2,238
Poland 2,217

Pot 4
Romania 2,217
Spain 2,142
France 2,142
Turkey 1,913

Note, that in case of the same average, the higher ranked team is a one with better goal difference in the last two qualifying campaigns.

The tie-breakers are:

Coefficient from the most recent qualifying competition
Average goal difference
Average number of goals scored
Average number of away goals scored
Drawing of lots

Thus, Romania is above Poland.

EURO 2008 seeding update -> link (http://lucrurineinteresante.blogspot.com/2007/11/euro-2008-situatia-la-zi.html).

[wombacik]

You're right. But it doesn't change a lot situation of both Poland and Romania, does it? :-) Frankly speaking, I'd like Poland to be in pot 4 and draw Netherlands, Germany and England or Sweden.

Here are updated pots:

Pot 1
Austria host
Switzerland host
Greece title defender
Netherlands 2,521

Pot 2
Croatia 2,380
Germany 2,363
Italy 2,333
Czech Rep. 2,304

Pot 3
England 2,285
Portugal 2,240
Sweden 2,238
Romania 2,217

Pot 4
Poland 2,217
France 2,142
Spain 2,142
Turkey 1,913

The tie-breakers are:

Coefficient from the most recent qualifying competition
Average goal difference
Average number of goals scored
Average number of away goals scored
Drawing of lots

[Phase4Nightmare]

From my calculations Netherlands can only avoid pot one by losing to Belarus.
If then Germany beats wales the coefficient of both countries are the same:

--------played--points---coefficient
Holland----24-----58------2,417
Germany--12---- 29------2,417

Current goal difference Netherlands: +34
Current goal difference Germany: +28

So Germany will only end up above Netherlands in a scenario like:
Belarus v Netherlands 1-0
Germany v Wales 6-0

Am i right?

Edit: What's interesting is that Netherlands plays belarus 18:00 while Germany's match is 20:30, so Germany will know on beforehand if they can go all-out.

[Cirdan]

no you're wrong. if 2 nations have the same points, only the latest qualifier tournament counts. So, if Holland loses and Germany wins, Germany would be in pot 1 regardless of the actual results since they would be better in the Euro qualification.

[BocaFan]

Edit: What's interesting is that Netherlands plays belarus 18:00 while Germany's match is 20:30, so Germany will know on beforehand if they can go all-out.

You are totally overrating what a top seed means to the players and managers. There probably won't be a single player on the pitch in Germany on Wednesday night who will even know what Holland did earlier that evening. :cool: