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illinizissou
11 Sep 2007, 02:58 PM
The formula [ISS (Index of Soccer Statistics) version 5.1] is:
{[(Goals)*2]+(Shot Assists)+(Drawn Fouls)+(50’s Won)+(Shots on Goal)+(Steals)+(Clearances)+[(Players Beaten)+(Blocks)]*.5}-{(Miss Touches)+(Turnover Passes)+(Fouls)+(Yellow Cards)+(Times Beaten)+(Breakaways Allowed)+[(Red Card)*2]}
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Goals – Any goal besides an own goal.

Shot Assists -
1) Any ball passed to a teammate in succession where the player receiving the ball has an open lane to the goal in the opponent’s goal zone.
2) Any ball passed to a teammate in succession where the player receiving the ball is able to advance unopposed into a location with an open lane to the goal in the opponent’s goal zone.
3) Any ball passed to a teammate in succession who then proceeds to do #1 or #2 before beating a player or losing clear possession.

Drawn Fouls - Any foul drawn on the opposing team's final third of the field.

50's Won –
Any ball in a 50-50 situation that comes off of a player's body and his team gains clear possession in succession.
1) The player receives a full point for gaining clear possession #1.
2) Each player receives a half point for gaining clear possession #2.
3) The first two players receive a half point for gaining clear possession #3.

Shots on Goal - Any shot that is on frame and makes it to at least the goal box before it is either a goal, it is deflected or it hits the goal frame and redirects in play.

Steals - Any loss of clear possession to the opponent where the other team gains clear possession.
1) The player receives a full point for gaining clear possession #1.
2) Each player receives a half point for gaining clear possession #2.
3) The first two players receive a half point for gaining clear possession #3.

Clearances – When a ball goes into or is in the penalty box, a player will receive a clearance point if he clears it anywhere besides the opponent gaining clear possession or over the endline.

Players Beaten -
1) Any time a player challenges an opponent and gets past them in the final third of the opponent’s side of the field.
2) Any time a player challenges an opponent and gets a shot on goal or shot assist off in the final fourth of the opponent’s side of the field.

Blocks – Any shot or pass blocked in the player’s final fourth of the field not put out over the endline.
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Miss Touches - Any time a player’s touch on the ball causes a loss of clear possession to the opposing team in succession.

Turnover Passes - Any time a pass is made and the opposing team gains clear possession of it in succession.

Fouls - Any foul in the player’s final third of the field.

Yellow Cards - Any yellow card.

Times Beaten –
1) Any time an opponent challenges a player and gets past them in the opponent’s final third of the field.
2) Any time an opponent challenges a player and gets a shot on goal or shot assist off in the opponent’s final fourth of the field.

Breakaways Allowed - Any time a player allows a marked player to get behind them and the opposing team has superior numbers.

Red Card - Any red card.
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Gaining Clear Possession is established at the moment of primary contact with the ball if:
1) A player makes contact with the ball for a second time in succession.
2) A player makes contact with the ball and then a teammate does #1 in succession.
3) Three different teammates touch the ball in succession.
Losing Clear Possession is established at the moment of primary contact with the ball if:
1) The ball goes out of bounds.
2) The ball is touched by the keeper.
3) The opposing team gains clear possession of the ball.
4) The ball is played into a 50-50 situation.
50-50 Situation – Any time two or more players from opposing teams make an effort to make contact with the ball and the opposing players make contact or both make contact with the ball.
Marked Player – Any time a teammate is not closer (goal side only) to an opponent with the ball, and the player is within 6’ of an opponent, that opponent is being marked by the player.
Goal Zone – Anything in the area from the top of the penalty box arc to the sides of the penalty box to the endline.
Succession – Any ball played from one teammate directly to another teammate. This excludes the following:
1) Redirected or touched by an opponent.
2) Played out of bounds.
3) Played into a 50-50 situation.
4) Touched by a keeper.
Final Fourth – Anything in the area from the top of the penalty box arc to the sidelines to the endline.
Final Third – Anything in the area from the midway between the center circle and the penalty box arc to the sidelines to the endline. An ad sign or grass line is a good consistent marker to identify this location.
Make an effort – A player that jumps to head a ball, lifts a leg in an attempt to touch a ball or touches a ball in any legal fashion.

Brazil Game Totals:

On average:

Score < 3 = Low value
Score > 3 and < 7 = Average value
Score > 7 = High value


Chund (4)
Bocanegra (5)
Onyewu (1)
Pearce (3)
Donovan (5)
Feilhaber (2.5)
Bradley (3)
Beasley (3.5)
Wolff (0)
Dempsey (4)
Johnson (0)
Convey (.5)
Arnaud (1.5)

Here's the full Brazil game breakdown:

Link to Full Game Stats (http://http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c391/illinizissou/brazilvsusa.jpg)

http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c391/illinizissou/brazilvsusa.jpg

Notes: This was the first game ever recorded without at least one player with negative game total. The team total was equal to the lowest US team total from the entire Gold Cup (against Mexico in the finals).

dark knight
12 Sep 2007, 11:29 AM
Approval bump

IndividualEleven
12 Sep 2007, 11:42 AM
Wolff's score reflect his shambolic touch on the ball.

Arnaud had an energetic game. His score extropolates well over the full 90.

The only starting midfielder Bradley had a higher score than was the guy who hasn't played a competitive match since Copa.

IndividualEleven
12 Sep 2007, 11:46 AM
Notes: This was the first game ever recorded without at least one player with negative game total. The team total was equal to the lowest US team total from the entire Gold Cup (against Mexico in the finals).

The team had guys of actual international caliber in the lineup, but was outclassed all over the field.

Maximum Optimal
12 Sep 2007, 11:53 AM
I'm usually not a Bocanegra fan, but I thought he played very well against Brazil. Glad to see the stats bear this out.

illinizissou
12 Sep 2007, 11:55 AM
Sorry the link is bad. It should be:

Try this one (http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c391/illinizissou/brazilvsusa.jpg)

Sam Hamwich
12 Sep 2007, 01:23 PM
The formula [ISS (Index of Soccer Statistics) version 5.1] is:
{[(Goals)*2]+(Shot Assists)+(Drawn Fouls)+(50’s Won)+([B]Shots on
Chund (4)
Bocanegra (5)
Onyewu (1)
Pearce (3)
Donovan (5)
Feilhaber (2.5)
Bradley (3)
Beasley (3.5)
Wolff (0)
Dempsey (4)
Johnson (0)
Convey (.5)
Arnaud (1.5)

Here's the full Brazil game breakdown:

Link to Full Game Stats (http://http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c391/illinizissou/brazilvsusa.jpg)

http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c391/illinizissou/brazilvsusa.jpg

Notes: This was the first game ever recorded without at least one player with negative game total. The team total was equal to the lowest US team total from the entire Gold Cup (against Mexico in the finals).


As usual, thanks for the great stats work...is anyone else a bit interested in how Brazil's players would score under the same model? Not asking for you to put it together, but it would be great to compare their numbers to ours.

bltleo
12 Sep 2007, 01:27 PM
The formula [ISS (Index of Soccer Statistics) version 5.1] is:
{[(Goals)*2]+(Shot Assists)+(Drawn Fouls)+(50’s Won)+(Shots on Goal)+(Steals)+(Clearances)+[(Players Beaten)+(Blocks)]*.5}-{(Miss Touches)+(Turnover Passes)+(Fouls)+(Yellow Cards)+(Times Beaten)+(Breakaways Allowed)+[(Red Card)*2]}
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[).


Danke for your analysis...you have done great work..I myself like statistic....I enjoyed your contribution:)

super intelligent...

P.S sorry for quick reply, but Germany is playing soon against Romania...so I´m excited.

Tonerl
12 Sep 2007, 01:28 PM
Interesting to note the relatively low team total and to compare that with the general subjective evaluation of our play, which is widely believed by many (including me) to have been pretty creditable. This is an interesting development in light of the previous trend of bad results being roughly analogous with low totals.

I think the upshot of this line of thinking is that there is now a small amount of evidence to suggest that totals are not meaningful by themselves, i.e. without some level of normalization. Unfortunately I think the only form that said normalization can take at this point is just a general subjective evaluation of who we were playing, the tactics employed, et cetera.

Tonerl
12 Sep 2007, 01:31 PM
As usual, thanks for the great stats work...is anyone else a bit interested in how Brazil's players would score under the same model? Not asking for you to put it together, but it would be great to compare their numbers to ours.

It has been brought up by many. Unfortunately it is beyond the scope of what illinizissou is capable of (obviously this is quite time consuming) and nobody else has volunteered.

illinizissou
12 Sep 2007, 02:17 PM
Interesting to note the relatively low team total and to compare that with the general subjective evaluation of our play, which is widely believed by many (including me) to have been pretty creditable. This is an interesting development in light of the previous trend of bad results being roughly analogous with low totals.

I think the upshot of this line of thinking is that there is now a small amount of evidence to suggest that totals are not meaningful by themselves, i.e. without some level of normalization. Unfortunately I think the only form that said normalization can take at this point is just a general subjective evaluation of who we were playing, the tactics employed, et cetera.

I'm going to quantify the following as just my opinion.

I agree it is a low total, but the exact same total we had against Mexico in the Gold Cup and won. From past games you certainly can win with a 33 game total and I think you could tie with much less. If you had told me last week that we would score the same against Brazil as we did against Mexico in the Gold Cup, I would have never believed you. I think the game total the US had against Brazil was very, very good considering the lack of a target forward and other issues I believe exist.

You're exactly correct in the numbers needing normalization. This is why I was hesitant to even provide game totals. You can't simply look at the numbers and say 40 points will get you a win. 40 points against T&T would probably be a net positive 30 points, while 40 points against Brazil could be a net -10 points, due to Brazil's own scores.

KALM
12 Sep 2007, 03:42 PM
Dempsey was pretty much invisible in the first half, but had the best half of anyone in the second half. I wonder what happened there; did he rack up most of his points after Eddie Johnson entered the match and he was moved back to a supporting striker role? Beasley also scored better in the second half, and once again I have to ask whether that had anything to do with the change in position.

Donovan on the other hand seeems to have had a very strong first half, but he faded in the second aside from the secondary assist on the goal.

drew_VT_6
12 Sep 2007, 03:58 PM
http://images.eonline.com/eol_images/Articles/20061013/285.wilson.rainn.101306.jpg

Dwight K. Schrute approves.


Quick questions, what about 50s Lost? Wouldn't that be an important stat for say Junior, Gooch, Boca and other defensive players?


NBA staticians keep track of why there was a turnover. As in: TO: ball out of bounds or TO: pass intercepted.

Rodan
12 Sep 2007, 04:26 PM
I wonder what happened there; did he rack up most of his points after Eddie Johnson entered the match and he was moved back to a supporting striker role?
My opinion is that the target forward position in Bradley's scheme is simply a very thankless position. I don't know if anyone has really rated well while playing it. Some attribute this to the US have crap forwards; I say it's just a scheme that makes it very hard for forward to show well (and of course the U.S. doesn't have any GREAT forwards anyway). I also think the "supporting stiker" role is way conducive to Dempsy's skill set.
Donovan on the other hand seeems to have had a very strong first half, but he faded in the second aside from the secondary assist on the goal.
He frankly rated higher than I would have guessed. But that's where these kind of metrics (IMO) have particular value.

russ
12 Sep 2007, 05:46 PM
My opinion is that the target forward position in Bradley's scheme is simply a very thankless position. I don't know if anyone has really rated well while playing it. Some attribute this to the US have crap forwards; I say it's just a scheme that makes it very hard for forward to show well (and of course the U.S. doesn't have any GREAT forwards anyway


It also has something to do with poor technical skills by our defenders.

And when I say "something",I mean "a lot".

illinizissou
12 Sep 2007, 06:00 PM
The statistical drop off of certain USMNT players as of late had me wondering what trendlines for some of the USMNT would look like. So in some free time I started playing around with the data sets. Let me know if anyone would be interested in this type of stuff, although I'd imagine not.

Example of Center Backs for 2007 (http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c391/illinizissou/usmntcb2007.jpg)

Although looking at this set has changed my opinion of playing Boca and Onyewu together. One or the other always seems to have a below average game when they play together.

Tonerl
12 Sep 2007, 09:21 PM
The statistical drop off of certain USMNT players as of late had me wondering what trendlines for some of the USMNT would look like. So in some free time I started playing around with the data sets. Let me know if anyone would be interested in this type of stuff, although I'd imagine not.

Example of Center Backs for 2007 (http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c391/illinizissou/usmntcb2007.jpg)

Although looking at this set has changed my opinion of playing Boca and Onyewu together. One or the other always seems to have a below average game when they play together.

Interesting, but I'm skeptical of the spurrious nature of the data. I think that for that sort of comparison to really tell us something, two things would have to happen: First, we'd need a lot of data. Second, and in my mind more importantly, the US team would need to be playing together a lot more regularly. As that obviously is dictated by the very nature of international soccer, I think club soccer is just too much of a factor on individual form to be able to really learn anything in the way of trending (i.e. players will likely trend up and down a few times in between appearances for the US, making the international form from one game to the next unrelated).

A note about Onyewu and Bocanegra together: while true that they have not produced a game where both had good score, we should keep in mind that there was only one instance in all of those games regardless of pairing in which both players scored well (the Conrad/Bocanegra pairing from the Mexico game). Though perhaps it could be argued that as that was also the only game which saw those two paired in the center, there is a lesson there, as well.

mcnaulty21
12 Sep 2007, 10:31 PM
The statistical drop off of certain USMNT players as of late had me wondering what trendlines for some of the USMNT would look like. So in some free time I started playing around with the data sets. Let me know if anyone would be interested in this type of stuff, although I'd imagine not.

Example of Center Backs for 2007 (http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c391/illinizissou/usmntcb2007.jpg)

Although looking at this set has changed my opinion of playing Boca and Onyewu together. One or the other always seems to have a below average game when they play together.
That's a sweet graph. Repped
Any way we could see more of those for different positions?

sidefootsitter
12 Sep 2007, 11:42 PM
IZ, how would you score the first Brazilian goal sequence?

From the turnover to the own goal.

IndividualEleven
13 Sep 2007, 05:45 AM
Once again I think postyers should understand, unless the thread starter made changes, the stated purpose of creating these charts is to provide a box score and not to:

1. get published in Nature
2. provide a free version of Prozone
3. create the soccer version of sabremetrics

I like the center back comparison. Sure, there aren't that many data points, but then you'd need something like Prozone for that in any event as the cbs aren't log hundreds of games together.

Reasonable conclusions can be drawn from having watched these guys play, and looking at the box scores. Like:

If Gooch had a good game the other team was probably fielding a big, non-speedster centerforward.