Why One Game NEVER Means Anything

[Serie Zed]

It drives me crazy how people always overreact to the last game the US plays.

In any single game the team puts forth a performance that falls somewhere along a bell curve. Ditto for the opponent. Then there's luck.

If an "average game" for the US is at the 50th percentile, Brazil's average game is probably the 70th or 75th (just to pick a number). But they might play a clunker and we might put out a gem, so that we're at the 90th percentile and they're at the 40th (near the bottom of THEIR curve) on the day -- and unless the bounces go their way, we win.

But sometimes we'll throw in a stinker and perform near the bottom of our ability and lose to a bad team. It happens.

The only way to look at this is to try and look at the long term trends and see that our "average" match is better than it used to be.

That's why if Brazil plays great we really can't match them (their best is better than ours), but also why there aren't too many teams now that are so much better that we can't win with a good or very good performance.

[appoo]

Originally posted by Serie Zed
That's why if Brazil plays great we really can't match them (their best is better than ours), but also why there aren't too many teams now that are so much better that we can't win with a good or very good performance.

You can probably count the number of teams that we can't beat with a great performance on one hand

[whip]

Originally posted by Serie Zed
It drives me crazy how people always overreact to the last game the US plays.

In any single game the team puts forth a performance that falls somewhere along a bell curve. Ditto for the opponent. Then there's luck.

The only way to look at this is to try and look at the long term trends and see that our "average" match is better than it used to be.



Have you realize that we are not Argentina or Brasil.??...For the few fans that USA SOCCER have won on the last WC 2002 is very important that the national team remain on the winning streak, this with time will attract more fans....Or if we have a loser team do you think anybody want to see it....?

[Serie Zed]

Originally posted by appooOnU
You can probably count the number of teams that we can't beat with a great performance on one hand

I agree. Our "best" beats every team in the world's "average" now.

[SoccerScout]

I agree. Our "best" beats every team in the world's "average" now

Problem is playing at your "Best" is very very few and far between.

[appoo]

Originally posted by SoccerScout
Problem is playing at your "Best" is very very few and far between.

and playing average we can compete with just about anybody in the world outside a certain few. We played sub-par vs Turkey and actually socred first, and then almost equalized.

[lasoccervegas2002]

our only problem now is consistency, look at the WC matches, in term of the way we play not the result, US-Germany was far better than the rest of our preliminary matches, i like how we played against Germany than the one against Portugal...

[MikeLastort2]

Why One Game NEVER Means Anything

I wonder what Portugal, June 5th, 2002 thinks about that idea. Or Mexico, June 17th, 2002.

Or, for that matter, Brazil and Germany, from June 30th, 2002.

One game can mean a lot and NEVER is a very very long time.

;)

[Serie Zed]

Originally posted by MikeLastort2
One game can mean a lot and NEVER is a very very long time. ;)

True enough -- I meant more that one game didn't really give any info about how the US was getting better or not. Obviously which games are good ones (WC 2002) and which ones are bad ones (WC 1998) go a long way towards how you FEEL about the team.

[Riotom9]

Originally posted by whip
Have you realize that we are not Argentina or Brasil.??...For the few fans that USA SOCCER have won on the last WC 2002 is very important that the national team remain on the winning streak, this with time will attract more fans....Or if we have a loser team do you think anybody want to see it....?


Huh?? Was your point that a poor performance in a friendly is going to drastically affect the popularity of the sport in this country? Ok, whatever.

I think the original post makes a good point. Not to mention there are MANY other ways, often times more important, to judge the quality of our team.

I look at the average skill level and athelticism of our player pool - it has risen dramatically ovr the past 2 years. It has even increased since last year. Sure, things like experience and chemistry are going to take time so that we can match our performances in WC02. But just looking at that 'bell curve', and measuring multiple aspects of our game (organization, defense, skill level, finishing, etc), and you can get a much better feel for the team.

One guy has a bad game and people go ape-************ about our program. It's called reality, people...