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Wizardscharter
01 Aug 2007, 05:09 AM
THU: New England 2.10 l 3.25 l 3.60 Kansas City
If you can't watch it live on the deuce Thursday night, record it. Change your plans if you have to. Game of the week and likely the Goal of the week comes from this one. Best 2 offenses and the worst 2 defenses tangle. If neutral, pray for KC to score early, you might see 9 goals.

To read the preview, NE hasn’t beaten KC at Gillete since 1999. Some of this knew this, but I don’t see how that streak makes the least difference – unless, of course, you believe in the law of averages, in which case, KC is seriously up against it. Anyway, NE and KC will have most of the rosters available. NE’s problem is another MLS game and a USOC game in between this game and next week’s game at KC. Likely NE will sit some guys and freely sub early as the game dictates. Advantage KC. We’ve seen this before and there doesn’t seem to be any reliable pattern tie-in to league results and USOC tilts on the weekend.

I like Eddie Johnston and crew to score at least 2 as the only D worse than KC happens to be NE. Also, NE will not normally hack away and KC normally beats teams with this stance. 4-3 KC was the score earlier this season in NE, BTW. Further, Brian Hall is the ref, so expect a well-called game regardless. Also in that vein, is KC has many guys on 4 yellows, which usually means that slight degree space for opponents. Adv, NE. Normally each team gets a lecture on the first hard one before Hall draws cards. We’ll see. My take is both teams favor the positive attacking game, so none of it should be an issue unless a blowout materializes.

I expect the OVER to happen, but maybe not 4-3 again. As this is a playoff caliber game basically for the today East Title, expect some feeling out early and tighter D from both sides so scoring will be later on. If KC is smart they will run NE into the ground with possession as NE gives up goals early and late in halves, but not many in the middle. If NE is smart, they hack it up at every opportunity and double the turnover machine Marinelli everywhere. KC thrives amidst chaos and loose balls. They clot visably in a stop/start game. NE is better with a plan and control, but the Achilles' is they want to play like KC does. When they inevitably do, they allow goals. KC can score more than anyone else and that is the danger. Sets favor NE.

NE has the equalizer in Twelllman who has made a career out of lighting up KC GK’s and separately Hartman, for that matter. KC’s D is poor overall and especially disorganized of late. One thing about KC is they generally don't make the same mistakes week to week, so I expect the level to increase defensively.

The computer says NE wins this 60% of the time. I dunno how, but that's what it says according to soccerway.com. NE, 1 loss in 8 home games, but KC was the team.

For me, this whole thing comes down to NE having separate attentions (USOC) and KC’s bench strength will be greater. The only results will be 2-2 or 3-2. I think, KC scores last and late to steal in what amounts to their home away from home, probably 3-2. The gorgeous road price on KC combined with NE’s likely roster almost demands a punt on KC. Wow.
KC@3.6

More on these later:

SAT: Chicago 2.38 l 3.20 l 2.90 Columbus Gut-CHI
SUN: New England 1.88 l 3.20 l 4.25 DC United Gut-NE
Toronto 2.29 l 3.25 l 3.25 Los Angeles Gut-LA

RobertK
01 Aug 2007, 07:45 PM
I appreciate the posts. Gotta love that over tomorrow, I'll be on it as well. Keep up the good work.

Wizardscharter
04 Aug 2007, 01:33 PM
OK, for 40 minutes the KC/NE game happened exactly as I thought it would. Then NE comes out and dominates the second half, KC can't finish (a reoccuring problem of late), and NE earns a late clincher with KC pressing. Good win by the future East Champions. NE has the best road record in MLS and now they are winning at home. Game over, it looks like. I was also wrong about the schedule and NE fielding a reduced lineup. KC and NE play two Sundays from now, so NE had no need to rest anyone. Oops. Again, a detail dropped by me.


SAT: Chicago 2.38 l 3.20 l 2.90 Columbus Gut-CHI
I like CHI and their new lineup. Blanco's positioning acounts for improvement at every position. Draw has some merit here only becasue CLB has shown steady improvement since singing their new Argies as well. The prices are a bit out of whack here as CLB is 5-2-1 in the last 8 and is the second hottest team in MLS. CHI, by contrast, is 1-4-3. Why the differential? Chuatemoc Blanco. Also CHI has lost only 10 times in 33 matches to Columbus. Not many of those in Chicago. Another reason to take CHI would be their league position. CHI absolutely needs 3 points in this game to remain in contact with DC in the last playoff spot. Currently CHI is 5 back of DC with DC at unrested NE Sun.
CHI@2.38

Dallas 1.67 l 3.50 l 5.50 Colorado
Both teams are on a slide. Colorado is on a rather large slide. Two things: Colorado is winless in 9. 0 for 6 away. Also this is the third game of the season series and DAL is looking for a 9-point sweep. That's why the prices suck.
DAL@1.67

Salt Lake 4.60 l 3.30 l 1.90 Houston
It's HOU and RSL. Top and bottom of a single table.
HOU@1.9

SUN: New England 1.88 l 3.20 l 4.25 DC United Gut-NE
I like NE at home to win by the odd goal. DC has wing issues and has allowed a soft goal to most everyone of late. NE happily takes whatever they get. DC has 1 win in their last 5 league games. Road weariness has an effect as DC is playing Game 5 of 6 on the road in this one. If you are looking for a reason to bet DRAW, it's this: DC plays a bunker-ball, negative, awful for the fans, garbage, gutless road style that restricts anything that looks like entertaining soccer. NE doesn't finish on short rest this could be a 0-0 game.
NE@1.88

Toronto 2.29 l 3.25 l 3.25 Los Angeles Gut-LA
I like LA for the same main reason I liked CHI last week at BMO; TOR is short short short. Their roster si on the DL. I also don't like the normal response of less-that-Championship teams when coaches call them out as MO did last week. Championship teams usually respond positively. Less than teams tend to tank. Horrible teams flat quit most times. LA understands the hole they are in and to them this has to look like the "easy 3". Beckham may not play, but Donovan will. TOR has no answer to Donovan. ESPN2 SUN night.
LA@3.25

Linus Tulagi
05 Aug 2007, 10:53 AM
RSL won due to Hou slipping on the grass laid on top of the artificial surface. Same thing that did in NE at home earlier this year.

Wizardscharter
06 Aug 2007, 05:39 PM
Yeah, that and some flat play early combined with criminal passing at the back leading to Findley's pick-6 breakaway goal. If you had RSL at 5.5, good for you. Unbelievable. This game is the case in point on why taking either side of a 5.5 line is not your best choice. The favored sometime lose and selective memory of a huge win at 5.5 will get you to chase umpteen other losing longshots. Linus brought up a great pointa bout the surface as well. Again, I had no idea. Regardless I still woul have said Houston with that knowledge.

CHI/CLB scoreless. Two fairly inept teams in this one. Hesmer continues to play well for CLB, still he isn't asked to do much. Blanco looked like he belongs in a local rec league. Hmmm.

LA and TOR scoreless. TOR certainly had the better of play in the game. BMO should be the road trip of choice for all fangroups. TOR was so outgunned on paper in this game, but still found a way to be the dominant team. If there is a better home field on this continent, I'm unaware of it. It's unnerving to think what it will be like at BMO when TOR has a good or great team and it's snowing there come playoff time. LA should have done better than a few whining moments from a hacked Donovan.

DAL completed the sweep of Colorado. Pids still winless in forever anywhere and away. The .67 units represented my only win of the week. Ouch. DAL just finds ways to win. They were not at their best this weekend. Cooper's injury is probably worth a half goal a game by the numbers and still DAL beats everyone but HOU.

DC 3-0 winners at NE. The scoreline was a bigger shock than DC winning. NE wasn't listless in this one, but DC had a decided jump to every 50/50 and second ball. Emilio scored twice on through balls, one of the clarivoyant and sublime variety on a perfectly weighted, 35 yd diagonal, and defense corrupting ball finished on a one touch. Outstanding. Emilio is now tied with EJ for the goal scoring lead. EJ still leads in scoring as Emilio does not pass, ever. For future reference, NE obviously concentrated on the KC game and didn't have enough left to be competitive over :90 on Sunday. Your choice to interpret this as NE's view of KC as better than DC or if it's just a reflection of KC at that time being higher in the standings and therefore a bigger threat in the East race. NE, for whatever reason is a slightly better road team than a home team.

1-4 for the week, most all previous season profit reversed. Re-rack next week.

-WC